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Wine - US - November 2016

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Nov 2016

Category :

Wine

No. of Pages : N/A

Dollar sales of wine are estimated to reach $61 billion in 2016, an increase of 22% since 2011 (14% inflation-adjusted). Volume sales are growing at a slower rate (7% from 2011-16), pointing to the influence of higher price point products.

Table of Contents

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Half of wine buyers consider themselves “beginners”
Figure 1: Wine behavior – Beginner, by generation, August 2016
Wine is not widely viewed as an artisanal/craft product
Figure 2: Wine statements – Artisanal/craft, August 2016
Industry terms don’t resonate with wine buyers
Figure 3: Wine statements – Wine terms, August 2016
The opportunities
Sparkling share of sales continues to grow
Figure 4: US volume sales of wine, by segment, 2011-21
Smaller formats may drive trial
Figure 5: Wine statements – Full-size bottle, by “beginner,” August 2016
85% of wine buyers purchase more around the holidays
Figure 6: Wine behavior – Holiday purchase, August 2016
What it means

THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Volume sales of wine grow 7% from 2011-16
Sparkling share of sales continues to grow
Domestic wine comprises a higher percent of volume sales
Off-premise sales makes up the largest share of the market
Beer leads alcohol consumption

MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Dollar sales of wine are estimated to reach $61 billion in 2016
Figure 7: Total US on- and off-premise sales and fan chart forecast of wine, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 8: Total US on- and off-premise sales and forecast of wine, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 9: Total US on- and off-premise sales and forecast of wine, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Volume sales of wine grow 7% from 2011-16
Figure 10: Total US volume sales and forecast of wine, 2011-21
Figure 11: Total US volume sales and forecast of wine, 2011-21

MARKET BREAKDOWN
Sparkling share of wine sales continues to grow
Figure 12: US volume sales of wine, by segment, 2011-21
Domestic wine comprises higher percent of volume sales
Figure 13: US volume sales of wine, by origin, 2011-15
Off-premise sales makes up the largest share of the market
Figure 14: US volume sales of wine, by channel, at current prices, 2011-15

MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Beer leads alcohol consumption
Figure 15: Alcohol consumption – Any drink*, October 2015
Figure 16: Correspondence Analysis – Perceptions of alcoholic drink types, October 2015
Figure 17: Perceptions of types of alcoholic drinks, October 2015

KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
19% of wine drinkers consume Barefoot table wine offerings
94% of table wine launches are in bottles
Cap closures are gaining share among table wine launches
Cans are gaining share among sparkling wine launches

LEADING WINE BRANDS
19% of wine drinkers consumer Barefoot table wine offerings
Figure 18: Leading brands consumed – Domestic table wine, 2012 and 2016
9% of wine drinkers consume Yellow Tail table wine options
Figure 19: Leading brands consumed – Imported table wine, 2012 and 2016
10% of wine drinkers drink Korbel
Figure 20: Leading brands consumed – Champagne/sparkling wine, 2012 and 2016
Taylor and Harvey’s Bristol Cream lead Port/dessert wines consumed
Figure 21: Leading brands consumed – Port/dessert wine, 2012 and 2016

WHAT’S WORKING?
94% of table wine launches are in bottles
Figure 22: Table wine launches, by leading pack type, 2012-16*
Cap closures are gaining share among table wine launches
Figure 23: Table wine launches, by closure type, 2012-16*
Cans are gaining share among sparkling wine launches
Figure 24: Champagne/sparkling wine launches, by leading pack type, 2012-16*
Ethical claims are on the rise among table wine launches
Figure 25: Table wine launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*

WHAT’S NEXT?
Packaging innovation can already be seen in the category
Cans
Smaller sizes
Boxes
Capitalizing on other alcoholic beverage trends
Focus on craft
Make it sparkle
Wine cocktails
Figure 26: Wine statements – Innovation, by generation, August 2016
Figure 27: “Barefoot Courtside Cup Cocktail,” online video, June 2016
Figure 28: “Shipwrecked Margarita – Sutter Home Wine Cocktails,” online video, July 2016

THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
54% of adults 22+ purchase still table wine, 28% purchase sparkling
Half of wine buyers consider themselves “beginners”
Price leads purchase decision
Wine is not widely viewed as an artisanal/craft product
Industry terms don’t resonate with wine buyers
85% of wine buyers purchase more wine around the holidays

WINE PURCHASE
More than half of adults purchase still table wine, a quarter purchase sparkling options
Figure 29: Wine purchase, August 2016
Wine purchase is pretty evenly split between men and women
Figure 30: Share of wine purchase, by gender, August 2016
Millennials and Boomers make up largest share of wine buyers
Figure 31: Share of wine purchase, by generation, August 2016
Hispanics make up a small portion of wine buyers
Figure 32: Share of wine purchase, by Hispanic origin, August 2016
Close to half of wine buyers are from the highest income-earning HHs
Figure 33: Share of wine purchase, by HH income, August 2016

WINE EXPERIENCE
The majority of wine drinkers drink wine multiple times per week
Figure 34: Wine behavior – Consumption, August 2016
Men are more likely to be frequent drinkers
Figure 35: Wine behavior – Consumption, by gender, August 2016
Half of wine buyers consider themselves “beginners”
Figure 36: Wine behavior – Beginner, August 2016
Men are less likely than women to identify as a “beginner”
Figure 37: Wine behavior – Beginner, by gender, August 2016
Millennials are most likely to identify as wine beginners
Figure 38: Wine behavior – Beginner, by generation, August 2016
Vast range intimidates 37% of wine buyers
Figure 39: Wine behavior – Intimidation, August 2016
Younger drinkers are most likely in need of guidance
Figure 40: Wine behavior – Intimidation, by generation, August 2016
Figure 41: Wine behavior – Intimidation, by “beginner,” August 2016

WINE FORMATS
Packaging
41% of wine buyers purchase wine in boxes
Figure 42: Wine behavior – Format purchased, August 2016
Figure 43: Wine statements – Interest in cans, August 2016
Millennials make up the majority of nonconventional format buyers
Figure 44: Wine behavior – Share of format purchased, by generation, August 2016
Purchase of alternative formats increases with income
Figure 45: Wine behavior –Format purchased, by HH income, August 2016
Alternative formats continue to struggle with perception
Figure 46: Wine statements – Perception of alternative formats, August 2016
Men are more likely to be open to alternative formats
Figure 47: Wine statements – Perception of alternative formats, by gender, August 2016
Figure 48: Wine statements – Interest in cans, by gender, August 2016
Millennials are the strongest target for canned wine
Figure 49: Wine statements – Perception of alternative formats, by generation, August 2016
Figure 50: Wine statements – Interest in cans, by generation, August 2016
Smaller formats may drive trial
Figure 51: Wine statements – Full-size bottle, August 2016
Millennials are attracted to smaller sizes
Figure 52: Wine statements – Full-size bottle, by generation, August 2016
Smaller formats may open the door to “beginners”
Figure 53: Wine statements – Full-size bottle, by “beginner,” August 2016
Origin
US wine buyers are more likely to purchase domestic options
Figure 54: Wine behavior – type purchased, August 2016
Lower-income HHs are less likely to purchase imported wine
Figure 55: Wine behavior –Type purchased, by HH income, August 2016
Italian wine leads imported consumption in the US
Figure 56: Types of imported wine consumed – Country of origin, 2012 and 2016
Styles
Merlot and cabernet sauvignon are most popular domestic wine types consumed
Figure 57: Types of domestic wine consumed, 2012 and 2016

WINE PRICING
Wine buyers have a fairly high threshold for value wine pricing
Figure 58: Price sensitivity – Mean, August 2016
Women have a lower tolerance for high price
Figure 59: Price sensitivity – Mean, by gender, August 2016
Millennials are more likely to see wine in higher price points
Figure 60: Price sensitivity – Mean, by generation, August 2016
Wine buyers who prioritize price have a lower threshold
Figure 61: Price sensitivity – Mean, by price as a purchase factor, August 2016

PURCHASE LOCATION
Off-premise purchase leads
Figure 62: Wine purchase location, August 2016
Men are a stronger target for online, on-premise purchase
Figure 63: Wine purchase location share, by gender, August 2016
61% of on-premise wine buyers are Millennials
Figure 64: Wine purchase location share, by generation, August 2016
Figure 65: Wine purchase location – Off-premise, by generation, August 2016
Lower earning HHs almost solely buy their wine at supermarkets, mass
Figure 66: Wine purchase location, by HH income, August 2016

PURCHASE DRIVERS
Price leads purchase decision
Figure 67: Wine purchase drivers – Top rank and any rank, August 2016
Women are more price conscious than men
Figure 68: Wine purchase drivers – Any rank, by gender, August 2016
Older wine buyers seek more traditional cues, Millennials look for recommendations
Figure 69: Wine purchase drivers – Any rank, by generation, August 2016
Beginners are more likely to use price as a purchase factor
Figure 70: Wine purchase drivers – Any rank, by “beginner”, August 2016
Price plays a smaller role among on-premise buyers
Figure 71: Wine purchase drivers – Any rank, by purchase location (Nets), August 2016
Recommendations are useful to online shoppers
Figure 72: Wine purchase drivers – Any rank, by off-premise purchase location, August 2016
Local does not appear as a strong purchase driver
Figure 73: Wine statements – Local, August 2016
Figure 74: Wine statements – Local, by generation, August 2016

ATTITUDES TOWARD WINE
Wine is not widely viewed as an artisanal/craft product
Figure 75: Wine statements – Artisanal/craft, August 2016
Industry terms don’t resonate with wine buyers
Figure 76: Wine statements – Wine terms, August 2016
Straightforward descriptors are most likely to resonate with women
Figure 77: Wine statements – Wine terms, by gender, August 2016
Appealing to Boomers can come from simplifying wine language
Figure 78: Wine statements – Wine terms, by generation, August 2016
Those who base purchase decision on descriptors want simple ones
Figure 79: Wine statements – Wine terms, by importance of descriptions in purchase decision, August 2016
Wine professionals are looked to for simple, straightforward guidance
Figure 80: Wine statements – Wine terms, by importance of recommendations in purchase decision, August 2016
Figure 81: Wine statements – Wine terms, by wine experience, August 2016
A quarter of wine drinkers are open to casualization
Figure 82: “Anthem,” online video, April 2016
Figure 83: Wine statements – Casual, August 2016

HOLIDAY PURCHASE
85% of wine buyers purchase more around the holidays
Figure 84: “Add Sparkle to Your Table,” online video, December 2016
Figure 85: “Woodbridge Chardonnay Applesauce,” online video, October 2016
Figure 86: “Woodbridge Pinot Garlic Butter,” online video, September 2016
Figure 87: Wine behavior – Holiday purchase, August 2016
The holidays are a good time to engage Millennial wine buyers
Figure 88: Wine behavior – Holiday purchase, by generation, August 2016
Holiday gifting is a strong sales opportunity for high-income earners
Figure 89: Wine behavior – Holiday purchase, by HH income, August 2016

APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations

APPENDIX – MARKET
Figure 90: US volume sales of wine, by segment, 2011-21
Figure 91: US volume sales of wine, by origin, 2011-15
Figure 92: US volume sales of table wine, by origin, 2011-15
Figure 93: US volume sales of Champagne/sparkling wine, by origin, 2011-15
Figure 94: US volume sales of dessert and fortified wine, by origin, 2011-15
Figure 95: US volume sales of wine, by channel, at current prices, 2011-15

APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS
Figure 96: Leading brands consumed – domestic table wine, 2012-16
Figure 97: Leading brands consumed – imported table wine, 2012-16
Figure 98: Leading brands consumed – Champagne/sparkling wine, 2012-16
Figure 99: Leading brands consumed – Port/dessert wine, 2012-16
Figure 100: Table wine launches, by pack type, 2012-16*
Figure 101: Table wine launches, by closure type, 2012-16*
Figure 102: Champagne/sparkling wine launches, by leading pack type, 2012-16*
Figure 103: Table wine launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
Figure 104: Champagne/sparkling wine launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*

APPENDIX – CONSUMER
Figure 105: Mean # glasses consumed, 2012-16
Figure 106: Types of domestic wine consumed, 2012-16
Figure 107: Leading types of domestic wine consumed, by age, 2016
Figure 108: Types of imported wine consumed – country of origin, 2012-16
Figure 109: Types of imported wine consumed – country of origin, by age, 2016

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