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Restaurant: Decision Making Process - US - August 2016

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Aug 2016

Category :

Hotels & Restaurants

No. of Pages : N/A

Across demographics, the convenience of limited service restaurants still remains a strong motivator for weekday dining out, specifically with fast food. On the other end of the spectrum, Millennials are creating their own dining out culture across fine dining restaurants and fast casuals, with more shareable dishes and elevated alcohol offerings.

Overview

What you need to know
Definition

Executive Summary

The issues
Fast casuals not competing with convenience and affordability of QSRs during the week
Figure 1: Segment visitation, by occasion, May 2016
Portion sizes vary across the board
Figure 2: Interest in various portion sizes, by generation
Consumers don’t want to feel rushed during their meal
Figure 3: Restaurant considerations, any occasion, May 2016
The opportunities
Restaurant industry projected for growth
Figure 4: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of full service and limited service restaurants and other eating places, at current prices, 2011-21
Dining solo
Figure 5: Importance of restaurant factors, comfortable for dining alone, by age, May 2016
Alcohol on the menu
Figure 6: Restaurant visitation factors, a great alcohol menu, by typical weekend, by generations, May 2016
Millennials less likely to associate fine dining solely with special occasions
Figure 7: Fine dining restaurant visitation, by typical weekend, by Millennials and non-Millennials, May 2016
What it means

The Market – What You Need to Know

Blurred lines between retail and foodservice
Alcohol sales important to FSRs
LSRs offer convenience and quality

Market Size and Forecast

Restaurant sales reach $500 billion in 2016
Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 11: Total US retail sales of restaurants, by segment, at current prices, 2016

Market Factors

Dining out distinction becoming less clear cut
Figure 12: Food sales away from home versus at home, January 2012-May 2016
Consumer confidence
Figure 13: Consumer Sentiment Index, June 2008-June 2016
Alcohol and less-traditional meal occasions
Figure 14: Total US sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol, at current prices, 2010-20
Shifting US demographics driving market sales
Figure 15: Population by generation, 2016
Fast casuals have to consistently demonstrate their value

Key Trends – What You Need to Know

Happy hours and less traditional meal times
Restaurants in retail settings
Millennials and foodies always looking for something new

What’s Working?

Shareable plates
Outdoor seating
Pictures of food
Kid-friendly dining

What’s Struggling?

Traditional meals are starting to lose relevancy
Soft drinks are being replaced by more natural options

What’s Next?

Technology innovations improve customer experience
Innovation and design create a full restaurant experience
Restaurants gain appeal in nonfood retail settings
Restaurant collaboration and partnerships go mainstream

ePerformance Data

What is ePerformance?
ePerformance and the foodservice industry
Figure 16: Email volume, by restaurant segments, June 1-July 2016
The importance of email marketing for the restaurant decision making process
Restaurant analysis
Chili’s leverages emojis
Figure 17: Chili’s company email July 5, 2016: “+ salad + dessert = only $10!”
Houlihan’s and pop culture
Figure 18: Houlihan’s company email June 24, 2016: “Hello. Is it tiki you’re looking for?”
Broader foodservice trends
Figure 19: Applebee’s company email July 25, 2016 “[Name], every meal is better shared”
Highlighting loyalty programs
Figure 20: Chipotle company email July 1, 2016: “Did someone say FREE burrito? Chiptopia has begun.”

The Consumer – What You Need to Know

Comfortable dining alone
Millennials want to share food
Fine dining beyond special occasions

Restaurant Segment Visitation

Restaurant segment visitation by occasion
Figure 21: Restaurant segment visitation, May 2016
Figure 22: Restaurant segment visitation, by occasion, May 2016
FSRs compete with LSRs for convenience
Figure 23: FSR and LSR segment visitation, May 2016
Restaurant visitation by parents versus nonparents
Figure 24: Segment visitation on a typical weekday, by parents versus nonparents, May 2016
Delivery by restaurant segment
Figure 25: Importance of delivery for restaurant choice, by restaurant segment visitation, May 2016

Restaurant Visitation Motivators

Experience is all
Figure 26: Restaurant considerations, any occasion, May 2016
Figure 27: All restaurant considerations by occasion, by income, May 2016
Outdoor seating by restaurant segment
Figure 28: Restaurant considerations, by restaurant type, by any occasion, May 2016
The rise of dietary-aware dishes and dining alone
Figure 29: Important qualities for restaurant choice, May 2016
Figure 30: Important restaurant considerations, comfortable for dining alone, by gender, May 2016

Regional Attitudes

LSRs vs. FSRs, by region
Figure 31: Restaurant segment visitation, by region, May 2016
Figure 32: Fast casual visitation, by region, May 2016
Restaurant considerations, by region
Figure 33: Importance of not feeling rushed during a meal on a typical weekend, by region, May 2016
Figure 34: New restaurant visitation, by typical weekday, by region, May 2016

Restaurant Decision Making Process by Generation

Millennials find value in smaller, everyday indulgences
Figure 35: Restaurant segment visitation, by generation, May 2016
Figure 36: Restaurant segment visitation, by typical weekend, by generation, May 2016
A strong interest in authentic, regional dishes across generations
Figure 37: Appeal of authentic regional or international cuisine, by generation, May 2016
Millennials and the bar scene
Figure 38: Interest in a great alcoholic drink selection on a typical weekend, by generation, May 2016
Figure 39: Importance of bar area, by generation, May 2016
A convenient location for dining out
Figure 40: Importance of convenient location, by generation, May 2016
A sense of adventure surrounding Millennials
Figure 41: Restaurant considerations, by special occasion, by generation, May 2016
Figure 42: Restaurant considerations, by typical weekday, by generation, May 2016

Restaurant Decision Making Process by Race

Black consumers value convenient restaurant options
Figure 43: Restaurant segment visitation, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2016
Figure 44: LSR visitation, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2016
Figure 45: Family restaurant visitation, by special occasion, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2016
Menu appeal by race
Figure 46: Menu characteristics appeal, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2016
Figure 47: Restaurant considerations, by occasion, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2016
Value deals by race
Figure 48: Influencers for revisitation, by race, May 2016

Motivators for Revisitation

Seasonally inspired dishes grow in importance
Figure 49: Influencers for revisitation, May 2016
Coupons remain leading value offer
Figure 50: Influencers for visitation, deal offers, May 2016
Parents find value in dining out experiences
Figure 51: Influencers for visitation, by parent versus nonparent, May 2016

TURF Analysis – Menu Appeal

Figure 52: TURF analysis, menu appeal, May 2016

Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

Data sources
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Direct marketing creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms

Appendix – Market

Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at inflation adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of full service restaurants, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of full service restaurants at inflation adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 57: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2016-21

Appendix – Consumer

Figure 58: Average household size, by race and Hispanic origin, 2015

Appendix – TURF Analysis

Methodology
Figure 59: Turf analysis, menu appeal, May 2016

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