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RAIL TRAVEL WORLDWIDE-MARCH 2018

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Mar 2018

Category :

Travel Services

No. of Pages : N/A

Competition in passenger rail services is set to intensify in the coming years and decades. For decades, if not centuries, most of the world's rail companies have operated as state-run monopolies. Now this is changing as markets are being liberalised to allow new entrants, in a way similar to the air transport sector where the move to deregulate began roughly 40 years ago. At the same time, there will be heightened competition from other modes of transport, notably the airlines and intercity bus operators, depending on the region.

Table of contents
INTRODUCTION
KEY FINDINGS
DATA SOURCES
ABBREVIATIONS
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
Passenger experience
Intermodal travel
Revenue management
Competition with air and car travel
Railway stations evolving
Safety and security
GLOBAL SUMMARY
Demographic outlook
Figure 1: Population by broad age group, region, sub-region, 2015-40
Implications for rail travel
Economy
US tax policy change a key factor
Growth upgraded for developed world economies
Improved outlook for growth in trade
Figure 2: Overview of the World Economic Outlook projections, year-on-year (% change unless noted otherwise), 2016-19
Interest rates
Figure 3: Central bank interest rates outlook (in %), 2016-17
Long-term rates to move up
Figure 4: Outlook for 10-year government-bond yields (in %), 2016-17
Currencies
Figure 5: Outlook for exchange rates, 3-month & 12-month, 2018
Forecasted spending on travel and tourism
Figure 6: Spending on travel & tourism worldwide (US$bn), 2017 & 2027
Africa
Figure 7: Spending on travel & tourism in Africa* (US$bn), 2017 & 2027
North Africa
Figure 8: Spending on travel & tourism in North Africa* (US$bn), 2017 & 2027
Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 9: Spending on travel & tourism in Sub-Saharan Africa* (US$bn), 2016 & 2027
Asia Pacific
Figure 10: Spending on travel & tourism in Asia Pacific* (US$bn), 2017 & 2027
North East Asia
Figure 11: Spending on travel & tourism in North East Asia* (US$bn), 2017 & 2027
Oceania
Figure 12: Spending on travel & tourism in Oceania* (US$bn), 2017 & 2027
South Asia
Figure 13: Spending on travel & tourism in South Asia* (US$bn), 2017 & 2027
Figure 14: Spending on travel & tourism in South East Asia* (US$bn), 2017 & 2027
Americas
Figure 15: Spending on travel & tourism in Americas* (US$bn), 2017 & 2027
Latin America
Figure 16: Spending on travel & tourism in Latin America* (US$bn), 2016 & 2027
North America
Figure 17: Spending on travel & tourism in North America* (US$bn), 2016 & 2027
Europe
Figure 18: Spending on travel & tourism in Europe* (€bn), 2017 & 2027
Middle East
Figure 19: Spending on travel & tourism in Middle East* (US$bn), 2017 & 2027
PASSENGER EXPERIENCE
Online passenger services
On-board services
Trainline launches voice-activated rail app
On-board entertainment
A potential source of revenue
Trolex’s Juxta suite of services
c2c offers free Wi-Fi
INTERMODAL TRAVEL
Rail/airline tie-ups
Dedicated services
Figure 20: Rail/air dedicated services alliances, 2018
Entire network access
Figure 21: Rail & Fly partnerships between rail companies & airlines, 2018
Re-protection agreements
Figure 22: Existing re-protection agreements, 2018
REVENUE MANAGEMENT
Differences with air transport
Overbooking easier to handle on trains
Selling trips or time?
Willingness to pay
Differentiating seat prices
Pricing
Discount price classes
Passenger tickets
Rail slots
Forecasting
Diversion
Asset control mechanism
Movies on board?
COMPETITION WITH AIR & CAR TRAVEL
Advantages of rail travel
Train travel is more relaxing
Rail passengers can bring their own food and drink
The seats are usually more comfortable
Trains are less polluting
Lost luggage on trains is (virtually) unheard of
Show up at the last minute
Trains go directly from city centre to city centre
Ouigo designed to compete with LCCs and buses
19 destinations
Figure 23: Selection of Ouigo routes & frequencies, 2018
Fares
Customer reaction
IZY
Figure 24: Izy timetable & frequencies from 10 December 2017 to 31 March 2018
Swiss ‘Super Saver’ tickets
RAILWAY STATIONS EVOLVING
Focus on design
Kings Cross combines old and new
Vertical stations a design of the future?
Growth of retail
St Pancras offers upmarket shopping
Utrecht Station adapted to rail environment
Other revenue sources
Digital signage
Count-down signs
Colour signage and video
Sustainability is the watch word
Zero-net energy consumption
Energy-efficient escalators and travelators
Ergonomic station design
Drinking fountains for rail stations
SAFETY & SECURITY
Shinkansen safety questioned
Rail-platform safety upgraded in the UK
COTS safety controllers combat cyberattacks
Contract signed in Indonesia
Security at rail stations
Figure 25: Super hard station security tools, 2017
Figure 26: Hard station security tools, 2017
Figure 27: Soft station security tools, 2017
Figure 28: Super soft station security tools, 2017
HIGH-SPEED LINES WORLDWIDE
Growth in high-speed lines by major country/region
Figure 29: High-speed passenger-km by country/region (bn passenger-km), 2010-16
High-speed lines by country
Figure 30: High-speed lines in the world (km), as of 1 November 2017
Africa
Egypt
Figure 31: Future high-speed lines in Egypt as of 1 November 2017
Morocco
Figure 32: Future high-speed lines in Morocco as of 1 November 2017
South Africa
Figure 33: Future high-speed lines in South Africa as of 1 November 2017
Asia
Bahrain and Qatar
Figure 34: Planned high-speed line for Bahrain & Qatar as of 1 November 2017
China
Figure 35: China’s HSR network, 2017
Figure 36: Operating high-speed lines* in China as of 1 November 2017
Figure 37: Future high-speed lines* in China as of 1 November 2017
India
Figure 38: Future high-speed lines* in India as of 1 November 2017
Indonesia
Figure 39: Future high-speed lines in Indonesia as of 1 November 2017
Figure 40: Future high-speed lines in Iran as of 1 November 2017
Japan
Figure 41: Map of Japan’s HSR network, 2017
Figure 42: Operating high-speed lines in Japan as of 1 November 2017
Figure 43: Future high-speed lines* in Japan as of 1 November 2017
Kazakhstan
Figure 44: Future high-speed line in Kazakhstan as of 1 November 2017
Malaysia and Singapore
Figure 45: Future high-speed line in Malaysia & Singapore as of 1 November 2017
Figure 46: Future high-speed line in Saudi Arabia as of 1 November 2017
South Korea
Figure 47: Operating high-speed lines in South Korea as of 1 November 2017
Figure 48: Future high-speed lines in South Korea as of 1 November 2017
Taiwan
Figure 49: Operating high-speed lines in Taiwan as of 1 November 2017
Thailand
Figure 50: Future high-speed lines in Thailand as of 1 November 2017
Turkey
Figure 51: Operating high-speed lines in Turkey as of 1 November 2017
Figure 52: Future high-speed lines in Turkey as of 1 November 2017
Figure 53: Details of expenditure on HSR projects in Turkey in 2017
Vietnam
Figure 54: Future high-speed line in Vietnam as of 1 November 2017
Europe
Figure 55: Map of Europe’s HSR network, 2017
Austria
Figure 56: Operating high-speed lines in Austria as of 1 November 2017
Figure 57: Future high-speed lines in Austria as of 1 November 2017
Belgium
Figure 58: Operating high-speed lines in Belgium as of 1 November 2017
Czech Republic
Figure 59: Future high-speed lines in Czech Republic as of 1 November 2017
Denmark
Figure 60: Future high-speed lines in Denmark as of 1 November 2017
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania (Rail Baltica)
Figure 61: Future high-speed lines in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania (Rail Baltica) as of 1 November 2017
France
Figure 62: Details of French high-speed lines opened in 2017
Figure 63: Illustration of the Virgule at Sablé-sur- Sarthe, 2017
Figure 64: Operating high-speed lines in France as of 1 November 2017
Figure 65: Future high-speed lines in France as of 1 November 2017
Germany
Figure 66: Operating high-speed lines in Germany as of 1 November 2017
Figure 67: Future high-speed lines in Germany as of 1 November 2017
Italy
Figure 68: Operating high-speed lines in Italy as of 1 November 2017
Figure 69: Future high-speed lines in Italy as of 1 November 2017
Norway
Figure 70: Future high-speed lines in Norway as of 1 November 2017
Poland
Figure 71: Operating high-speed lines in Poland as of 1 November 2017
Figure 72: Future high-speed lines in Poland as of 1 November 2017
Portugal
Figure 73: HSR project in Portugal abandoned in 2012
Russia
Figure 74: Train service between cities in western Russia, 2018
Figure 75: Future high-speed lines in Russia as of 1 November 2017
Spain
Figure 76: Operating high-speed lines in Spain as of 1 November 2017
Figure 77: On-board amenities on AVE day trains by travel class, 2018
Figure 78: Future high-speed lines in Spain as of 1 November 2017
Sweden
Figure 79: Future high-speed lines in Sweden as of 1 November 2017
Switzerland
Figure 80: Operating high-speed lines in Switzerland as of 1 November 2017
Figure 81: Future high-speed lines in Switzerland as of 1 November 2017
The Netherlands
Figure 82: Operating high-speed lines in the Netherlands as of 1 November 2017
UK
Figure 83: Operating high-speed lines in the UK as of 1 November 2017
Figure 84: Future high-speed lines in UK as of 1 November 2017
Oceania
Australia
Figure 85: Future high-speed lines in Australia as of 1 November 2017
North America
Canada
Figure 86: Future high-speed lines in Canada as of 1 November 2017
Figure 87: Projected reduction in travel time on Canada’s future HSR routes, 2017
Mexico
Figure 88: Future high-speed lines in Mexico as of 1 November 2017
US
Figure 89: Operating high-speed lines in the US as of 1 November 2017
Figure 90: Future high-speed lines in the US as of 1 November 2017
South America
Brazil
Figure 91: Future high-speed lines in Brazil as of 1 November 2017
THE WORLD’S FASTEST TRAINS
Figure 92: 10 fastest trains in the world, 2018
Shanghai Maglev
Harmony CRH 380A
AGV Italo
Siemens Velaro E/AVS 103
Talgo 350
E5 Series Shinkansen Hayabusa
Alstom Euroduplex
SNCF TGV Duplex
ETR 500 Frecciarossa
THSR 700T
Figure 93: ATOC member train-operating companies, 2018
Has privatisation been a success?
A turning of the tide with the collapse of Railtrack
Higher ticket prices than on the continent
East Coast rail franchise – latest privatisation flop
Re-nationalisation on the horizon?
Rail franchising the new ‘strategic vision for rail’
DISTRIBUTION
Rail distribution in Europe
Figure 94: European rail gross bookings (€bn) & online penetration (%) projections, 2014-20
Mobile growing fast
Figure 95: Trend in mobile share of rail bookings in Europe, 2012-16
GDSs
Amadeus targets rail platform for growth
Merchant model for rail?
Intermodal objective
UK presence
OTAs
Expedia buys into SilverRail
How does the deal help Expedia?
SilverRail
HaCon
Booking rail tickets on Ctrip
Figure 96: Chinese cities where Ctrip offers rail ticket delivery, 2018
Trainline, a leading independent rail platform
Loco2 acquired
Virtual ticket agents
Virtual ticket office on test in Essen
Greater Anglia rolls out virtual ticket agents
Train chartering
The Train Chartering Company
TOP TEN PASSENGER RAILWAYS IN THE WORLD
Figure 97: Top 10 railways measured by revenue passenger kilometres, 2014-16
INDIAN RAILWAYS (IR)
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Current developments
Figure 98: Production of locomotives/coaches in 2015-16
Extended service
Figure 99: New trains, runs & increased frequencies on IR’s network, FY 2015-16
Trend in passenger numbers
Figure 100: Passengers (m), FY 1980-81-FY 2014-15
Average distance travelled
Figure 101: Average distance travelled FY 1980-81-FY 2015-16
Rail tourism
Luxury tourist trains
Buddhist Special Train
Bharat Darshan Trains
Steam train
Value-added tour packages
Indrail passes discontinued
CHINA RAILWAY (CR)
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Current developments
HSR feeder networks
Heilongjiang Province bus network
Yunnan Province
Express from Shanghai to Moscow launched
Beijing-Shanghai HSR off to a good start
Passenger volumes grow
Take-away meals on HS trains
Swipe-in starts in Zhengzhou
EAST JAPAN RAILWAY (EJR)
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Current developments
Figure 102: Outlook for growth in revenue & operating income by sector, FY 2017-FY 2020
Initiatives for foreign tourists
Tohoku Buffet
Figure 103: 12 optional tours in the 6 Tohoku prefectures, 2018
Japan Rail Cafe
Signage in foreign languages
Train Hostel Hokutosei
Support for the Olympic Games
Ticket to tomorrow
RUSSIAN RAILWAYS (RZD)
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Current developments
Passengers numbers rise
New Moscow-Berlin service achieved strong growth in first year
World Cup works soon to be completed
SOCIÉTÉ NATIONALE DES CHEMINS DE FER FRANÇAIS (SNCF)
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Current developments
Figure 104: Revenue, employees & investments by SNCF business segment, 2016
SNCF RÉSEAU
Systra
SNCF VOYAGEURS
Business segments
Rail market
Keolis
Business
Market
SNCF LOGISTICS
Business
SNCF IMMOBILIER (real estate)
Train passes
PRO second- and first-class tickets
Espace Pro Première
SNCF’s loyalty scheme
Voyageur Pro benefits
Grand Voyageur lounges
Door-to-door services
iDAVIS
Auto/Train
IDTGV + Coach
TGV Air
TGV Air stations
TGV Air airlines
Pro Première iDCAB
DEUTSCHE BAHN (DB) AG (2016)
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Current developments
Figure 105: Key performance data for DB rail & bus transport activities, 2015-16
Arriva – a DB subsidiary
UK
Transport for London award for London Overground
Denmark
Sweden
The Netherlands
Italy, Portugal and Spain
Czech Republik, Poland, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia, Slovenia:
Protection of the environment
CENTRAL JAPAN RAILWAY (CJR)
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Current developments
Chuo Shinkansen Maglev Line
Design and construction details
Membership reservation services
FERROVIE DELLO STATO ITALIANE (FS) (2016)
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Current developments
FS expands into Greece
Trainose
FS launches Busitalia Fast
UKRAINIAN RAILWAYS (UZ)
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Current developments
Six territorial rail companies
Donetsk Railway – Lyman
Lvov Railway – Lvov
Odessa Railways – Odessa
Southern Railway – Kharkiv
South western Railway – Kiev
Near-Dnipro Railway – Dnipro
Railcar fleet
Figure 106: Ukrainian Railways’ rolling stock, 2017
Passenger trains by category
Daytime passenger lines
Night-time passenger trains
New sleeping car on Kiev-Vienna route
RENFE (RED NACIONAL DE LOS FERROCARRILES ESPAÑOLES)
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Current developments
Tracks are wider but not for HSR
Renfe sales campaign with 70% discounts
‘La Bohème’ live
High definition via satellite and 4G
More than Wi-Fi
WHAT NEXT?
Competition set to increase
EU-mandated market deregulation
Bus competition heating up in continental Europe
LCCs will increase competition in some regions
US and UK – odd men out?
HSR to expand further
An HSR line between Beijing and Moscow?
Expanded intermodal links

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