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PharmaPoint: Obesity - Germany Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

Published By :

GlobalData

Published Date : Oct 2013

Category :

Metabolic Disorders

No. of Pages : 116 Pages

PharmaPoint: Obesity - Germany Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

Summary

After a more than decade long dormancy, the Obesity market is undergoing a revival with the advent of several novel therapies that will lend considerable visibility to this indication space. This includes the use of combination therapies that simultaneously target multiple pathways and regulate appetite control, as well as novel molecular entities with new mechanisms of action. Due to this growing pipeline of late-stage drugs, this market is expected to experience substantial growth over the next decade.

The only drug available for the treatment of obesity in Germany is Xenical, which is seeing a steady decrease in patient use. This is a severely underserved market, as there are simply no anti-obesity drugs available. According to GlobalDatas primary research, the percentage of patients taking Xenical is extremely low at approximately only 5% of the total patients who are overweight or obese.

Scope

- Overview of Obesity including epidemiology, etiology, symptoms, diagnosis, pathology and treatment guidelines as well as an overview on the competitive landscape.
- Detailed information on the key drugs in Germany including product description, safety and efficacy profiles as well as a SWOT analysis.
- Sales forecast for the top drugs in Germany from 2012-2022.
- Analysis of the impact of key events as well the drivers and restraints affecting the Germany Obesity market.

Reasons to buy

- Understand and capitalize by identifying products that are most likely to ensure a robust return.
- Stay ahead of the competition by understanding the changing competitive landscape for Obesity.
- Effectively plan your M&A and partnership strategies by identifying drugs with the most promising sales potential.
- Make more informed business decisions from insightful and in-depth analysis of drug performance.
- Obtain sales forecast for drugs from 2012-2022 in Germany.
1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 4
1.1 List of Tables 7
1.2 List of Figures 9
2 Introduction 10
2.1 Catalyst 11
2.2 Related Reports 12
3 Disease Overview 14
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology 16
3.1.1 Etiology 16
3.1.2 Pathophysiology 17
3.1.3 Prognosis 17
3.1.4 Quality of Life 18
3.2 Symptoms 18
4 Disease Management 19
4.1 Treatment Overview 19
4.2 Germany 24
4.2.1 Diagnosis 24
4.2.2 Clinical Practice 26
5 Competitive Assessment 32
5.1 Overview 32
5.2 Strategic Competitor Assessment 36
5.3 Product Profiles: Drugs 38
5.3.1 Xenical (orlistat) 38
5.3.2 Belviq (lorcaserin) 41
5.3.3 Oblean (cetilistat) 46
6 Opportunity and Unmet Need 49
6.1 Overview 49
6.2 A Drug with Greater Than 10% Average Weight Loss 50
6.2.1 Unmet Need 50
6.2.2 Gap Analysis 51
6.2.3 Opportunity 52
6.3 A Drug with Increased Safety and Tolerability 52
6.3.1 Unmet Need 52
6.3.2 Gap Analysis 53
6.3.3 Opportunity 53
6.4 Reimbursement by Private and Public Payers 53
6.4.1 Unmet Need 53
6.4.2 Gap Analysis 55
6.4.3 Opportunity 55
6.5 Increased Physician Education 55
6.5.1 Unmet Need 55
6.5.2 Gap Analysis 56
6.5.3 Opportunity 56
6.6 Increased Drug-Treatment Rate 57
6.6.1 Unmet Need 57
6.6.2 Gap Analysis 57
6.6.3 Opportunity 58
6.7 Improved Guidelines 58
6.7.1 Unmet Need 58
6.7.2 Gap Analysis 59
6.7.3 Opportunity 59
6.8 Improved Approach to Diagnosis 59
6.8.1 Unmet Need 59
6.8.2 Gap Analysis 60
6.8.3 Opportunity 60
7 Pipeline Assessment 61
7.1 Overview 61
7.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development 64
7.2.1 Contrave 67
7.2.2 Victoza (liraglutide) 72
7.2.3 Velneperit 77
7.2.4 Empatic 81
8 Market Outlook 86
8.1 Germany 87
8.1.1 Forecast 87
8.1.2 Key Events 91
8.1.3 Drivers and Barriers 92
9 Appendix 94
9.1 Bibliography 94
9.2 Abbreviations 100
9.3 Research Methodology 102
9.4 Forecasting Methodology 102
9.4.1 Percent Drug-Treated Obesity Patients 103
9.4.2 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class 103
9.4.3 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates 104
9.4.4 General Pricing Assumptions 104
9.4.5 Individual Drug Assumptions 105
9.4.6 Generic Erosion 108
9.4.7 Pricing of Pipeline Agents 108
9.5 Physicians, Specialists, and Payers Included in This Study 109
9.6 About the Authors 112
9.6.1 Analysts 112
9.6.2 Therapy Director - CVMD and Infectious Disease 113
9.6.3 Director - Medical Devices 113
9.6.4 Global Head of Healthcare 114
9.7 About GlobalData 115
9.8 Disclaimer 115

List of Table

1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Target Pathways in the Treatment of Obesity 17
Table 2: Symptoms of Obesity 18
Table 3: Treatment Guidelines for Obesity 22
Table 4: Most Prescribed Drugs for Obesity by Class in the Global Markets, 2013 23
Table 5: Classification of Overweight and Obesity by BMI and Waist Circumference, and the Associated Disease Risk 24
Table 6: Bariatric Treatment Attributes 35
Table 7: Leading Drug Treatments for Obesity, 2013 36
Table 8: Marketed Obesity Treatment Devices by Type 37
Table 9: Product Profile - Xenical 39
Table 10: Xenical SWOT Analysis, 2013 41
Table 11: Product Profile - Belviq 43
Table 12: Belviq SWOT Analysis, 2013 45
Table 13: Product Profile - Oblean 47
Table 14: ObleanSWOT Analysis, 2013 48
Table 15: Unmet Need and Opportunity in Obesity 50
Table 16: Endpoint Analysis of Clinical Trials Conducted in Obesity, 2013 63
Table 17: Obesity - Phase II-III Pipeline, 2013 64
Table 18: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for Obesity, 2013 66
Table 19: Obesity Treatment Pipeline Devices by Type 66
Table 20: Product Profile - Contrave 68
Table 21: Contrave SWOT Analysis, 2013 71
Table 22: Product Profile - Victoza 73
Table 23: Victoza SWOT Analysis, 2013 77
Table 24: Product Profile - Velneperit 78
Table 25: Velneperit SWOT Analysis, 2013 81
Table 26: Product Profile - Empatic 82
Table 27: Empatic SWOT Analysis, 2013 85
Table 28: Sales Forecasts ($) for Obesity in Germany, 2012-2022 89
Table 29: Key Events Impacting Sales for Obesity in Germany, 2012-2022 91
Table 30: Obesity Market in Germany - Drivers and Barriers, 2012-2022 92
Table 31: Key Launch Dates 104
Table 32: Key Patent Expiries 104

List of Chart

1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: Treatment Algorithm for Obesity 21
Figure 2: Projected Increase in the Pharmacological Treatment of Overweight and Obese Patients in Germany, 2012-2022 26
Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in Obesity, 2012-2022 65
Figure 4: Sales for Obesity in Germany by Drug Class, 2012-2022 90

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