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PharmaPoint: Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer - Germany Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

Published By :

GlobalData

Published Date : Jun 2013

Category :

Cancer

No. of Pages : 190 Pages

Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) is the most common lung cancer, and the second-most common cancer in men and women. Historically, the treatment paradigm has centered around chemotherapy. However, the launch of targeted therapies for patients with specific biomarkers has begun to fragment the NSCLC treatment landscape into smaller niche patient populations. Over the forecast period, this trend will continue with the launch of multiple new drugs in several new drug classes to address the high unmet need among NSCLC patients, and provide new treatment options for previously underserved populations. Launch of premium-priced drug candidates combined with increasing incident cases of the disease will be major drivers of growth in the major markets.

GlobalData projects that the German NSCLC market will shrink over the forecast period. This contraction will be driven by the loss of patent protection of the major marketed NSCLC therapies Alimta, Avastin, Iressa and Tarceva.

Scope

  • Overview of NSCLC including epidemiology, etiology, symptoms, diagnosis, pathology and treatment guidelines as well as an overview on the competitive landscape.
  • Detailed information on the key drugs in Germany including product description, safety and efficacy profiles as well as a SWOT analysis.
  • Sales forecast for the top drugs in Germany from 2012-2022.
  • Analysis of the impact of key events as well the drivers and restraints affecting Germany NSCLC market.

Reasons to buy

  • Understand and capitalize by identifying products that are most likely to ensure a robust return
  • Stay ahead of the competition by understanding the changing competitive landscape for NSCLC
  • Effectively plan your M&A and partnership strategies by identifying drugs with the most promising sales potential
  • Make more informed business decisions from insightful and in-depth analysis of drug performance
  • Obtain sales forecast for drugs from 2012-2022 in Germany.
Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 4
1.1 List of Tables 7
1.2 List of Figures 9

2 Introduction 10
2.1 Catalyst 10
2.2 Related Reports 11
2.3 Upcoming Related Reports 13

3 Disease Overview 14
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology 14
3.1.1 Etiology 14
3.1.2 Pathophysiology and Histology 14
3.1.3 NSCLC Biomarkers 15
3.1.4 Quality of Life 16
3.2 Symptoms 17

4 Disease Management 19
4.1 Treatment Overview 19
4.1.1 Diagnosis 20
4.1.2 Clinical Staging 21
4.1.3 Screening and Early Detection 23
4.1.4 Localized Procedures and Therapies 24
4.1.5 Systemic Chemotherapy 25
4.1.6 Targeted Therapy 26
4.2 Germany 28
4.2.1 Diagnosis 28
4.2.2 Clinical Practice 29

5 Competitive Assessment 32
5.1 Overview 32
5.2 Strategic Competitor Assessment 33
5.3 Product Profiles Major Brands, Chemotherapies 35
5.3.1 Alimta (pemetrexed disodium) 35
5.4 Product Profiles Major Brands, Targeted Therapies 39
5.4.1 Iressa (gefitinib) 39
5.4.2 Tarceva (erlotinib hydrochloride) 44
5.4.3 Xalkori (crizotinib) 50
5.4.4 Avastin (bevacizumab) 54

6 Opportunity and Unmet Need 58
6.1 Overview 58
6.2 Improved Overall Survival and Less Toxicity 59
6.3 Treatments for Patients with Acquired TKI Resistance 60
6.4 Better Treatment Options for Squamous Patients 61
6.5 Preventing Relapse or Recurrence 61
6.6 More Efficacious Second-Line Therapies 62
6.7 Increased Availability of Mutation Testing 62
6.8 More Cost-Effective Therapies 63
6.9 Unmet Needs Gap Analysis 64

7 Pipeline Assessment 68
7.1 Overview 68
7.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development 68
7.2.1 onartuzumab (MetMab) 72
7.2.2 necitumumab (IMC-11F8) 78
7.2.3 ramucirumab (IMC-1121B) 83
7.2.4 custirsen (OGX-011) 87
7.2.5 ganetespib (STA-9090) 92
7.2.6 nintedanib (BIBF1120) 98
7.2.7 Gilotrif (afatinib) 103
7.2.8 dacomitinib (PF-00299804) 109
7.2.9 LDK378 113
7.2.10 Yervoy (ipilimumab) 118
7.2.11 nivolumab (BMS936558) 122
7.2.12 GSK1572932A (MAGE-A3 Cancer Immunotherapeutic) 128
7.2.13 Halaven (eribulin mesylate) 132

8 Market Outlook 137
8.1 Germany 137
8.1.1 Forecast 137
8.1.2 Key Events 140
8.1.3 Drivers and Barriers 141

9 Appendix 143
9.1 Bibliography 143
9.2 Abbreviations 162
9.3 Methodology 166
9.4 Forecasting Methodology 166
9.4.1 Number of NSCLC Patients Currently Seeking Treatment 166
9.4.2 Percent Drug-treated Patients 167
9.4.3 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class 167
9.4.4 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates 168
9.4.5 General Pricing Assumptions 169
9.4.6 Individual Drug Assumptions 172
9.4.7 Generic Erosion 180
9.4.8 Pricing of Pipeline Agents 181
9.5 Physicians and Specialists Included in This Study 183
9.6 Survey of Prescribing Physicians 185
9.7 About the Authors 186
9.7.1 Authors 186
9.7.2 Epidemiologists 187
9.7.3 Global Head of Healthcare 188
9.8 About GlobalData 189
9.9 Disclaimer 189

List of Table


Table 1: Symptoms of Disease NSCLC 18
Table 2: Treatment Guidelines for NSCLC 20
Table 3: Stage Definitions for NSCLC 22
Table 4: Treatment Overview by Stage of Diagnosis for NSCLC 28
Table 5: Leading Treatments for NSCLC 35
Table 6: Product Profile Alimta (pemetrexed disodium) 37
Table 7: Alimta SWOT Analysis, 2013 39
Table 8: Product Profile Iressa (gefitinib) 41
Table 9: Iressa SWOT Analysis, 2013 44
Table 10: Product Profile Tarceva (erlotinib hydrochloride) 46
Table 11: Tarceva SWOT Analysis, 2013 49
Table 12: Product Profile Xalkori (crizotinib) 51
Table 13: Xalkori SWOT Analysis, 2013 54
Table 14: Product Profile Avastin (bevacizumab) 55
Table 15: Avastin SWOT Analysis, 2013 57
Table 16: Overall Unmet Needs Current Level of Attainment 59
Table 17: Clinical Unmet Needs Gap Analysis, 2013 65
Table 18: Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Phase I-II Pipeline, 2013 69
Table 19: NSCLC Phase III Pipeline, 2013 70
Table 20: NSCLC Advantages and Disadvantages of Therapeutic Classes 71
Table 21: Product Profile onartuzumab (MetMab) 73
Table 22: onartuzumab SWOT Analysis, 2013 78
Table 23: Product Profile necitumumab (IMC-11F8) 79
Table 24: necitumumab SWOT Analysis, 2013 82
Table 25: Product Profile ramucirumab (IMC-1121B) 83
Table 26: ramucirumab SWOT Analysis, 2013 87
Table 27: Product Profile custirsen (OGX-011) 88
Table 28: custirsen SWOT Analysis, 2013 92
Table 29: Product Profile ganetespib (STA-9090) 93
Table 30: ganetespib SWOT Analysis, 2013 98
Table 31: Product Profile nintedanib (BIBF-1120) 99
Table 32: nintedanib SWOT Analysis, 2013 102
Table 33: Product Profile Gilotrif (afatinib) 104
Table 34: Gilotrif SWOT Analysis, 2013 108
Table 35: Product Profile dacomitinib (PF-00299804) 109
Table 36: dacomitinib SWOT Analysis, 2013 113
Table 37: Product Profile LDK378 114
Table 38: LDK378 SWOT Analysis, 2013 118
Table 39: Product Profile Yervoy (ipilimumab) 119
Table 40: Yervoy SWOT Analysis, 2013 122
Table 41: Product Profile nivolumab (BMS936558) 123
Table 42: nivolumab SWOT Analysis, 2013 128
Table 43: Product Profile GSK1572932A (MAGE-A3 immunotherapy) 129
Table 44: MAGE-A3 (GSK1572932A ) SWOT Analysis, 2013 132
Table 45: Product Profile Halaven (eribulin mesylate) 133
Table 46: Halaven SWOT Analysis, 2013 136
Table 47: Sales Forecasts ($m) for NSCLC in Germany, 2012-2022 138
Table 48: Key Events Impacting Sales for NSCLC in Germany, 2012-2022 140
Table 49: NSCLC Market in Germany Drivers and Barriers, 20122022 141
Table 50: Five Year Prevalence 167
Table 51: Key Launch Dates 168
Table 52: Key Patent Expiries 169
Table 53: Physicians Surveyed by Country 185

List of Chart


Figure 1: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in NSCLC, 20122022 71
Figure 2: Sales for NSCLC in Germany by Drug, 20122022 139

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