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Packaged Red Meat - US - February 2017

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Mar 2017

Category :

Meat & Poultry

No. of Pages : N/A

Sales of red meat tumbled in 2016 as a convergence of factors negatively impacted the category. Commodity prices remain at their lowest levels in years, and while consumers indicate they are still eating red meat, there has been a pronounced reduction in their frequency of consumption. Health, environmental, and even cost concerns are driving consumers to other protein sources, and the category will be hard-pressed to manage any noteworthy sales growth in the short to near term.

Table of Content

Overview

What you need to know
Definition

Executive Summary
The issues
Sales stagnate
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2011-21
Consumption frequency drops
Figure 2: Weekly red meat consumption, 2016-17
Possible need to reintroduce consumers to red meat
Figure 3: Consumption, by opinions of red meat, December 2016
The opportunities
Value in fresher options
Figure 4: Opinions about red meat, by gender and age, December 2016
Quality and freshness appeal to Hispanic consumers
Figure 5: Opinions about purchasing red meat, by Hispanic origin, December 2016
Natural, organic resonate with Hispanic consumers
Figure 6: Red meat natural attributes, by Hispanic origin, December 2016
What it means

The Market – What You Need to Know
Oversupply and reduced demand impact red meat sales
Red meat problems impacting beef and pork
Consumers turning to poultry and seafood

Market Size and Forecast
Commodity volatility takes a toll on red meat
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2011-21

Market Breakdown
Beef stagnates, pork plummets
Figure 9: Total US retail sales of packaged red meat, by segment, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
Stagnant channel sales
Figure 10: Total US retail sales of packaged red meat, by channel, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
Accounting for inflation, beef sales to steadily fall
Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of beef, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Roller-coaster future for pork sales
Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of pork, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Sales of other red meat set to stagnate
Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of other red meat, at current prices, 2011-21

Market Perspective
Hispanic consumers more likely to consume red meat
Figure 14: Any red meat consumption, December 2016
Figure 15: Generations, by percentage of Hispanic origin, 2017
Poultry’s more positive perception; FDA recommends fish
Figure 16: Protein associations, all proteins, August 2016

Market Factors
Severe sales declines partially explained by price drops
Figure 17: Changes in Consumer Food Price Indexes, 2012-17
Health concerns weigh large
Environmental issues potentially impacting consumption
Figure 18: Weekly red meat consumption, 2016-17
Households with kids tend to consume red meat
Figure 19: Households, by presence of own children, 2006-16

Key Players – What You Need to Know
Declines for all leading red meat brands
Potential for preservative-free
Variety may expand appeal

Brand Sales of Packaged Red Meat
Tyson maintains brand lead, but private label leads market share
Brand sales of packaged red meat
Figure 20: MULO sales of packaged red meat, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Figure 21: MULO market share of packaged red meat, by leading companies, 52-weeks ending Oct. 30, 2016

What’s Working?
Potential for preservative-free
Figure 22: US red meat launches, by date published, by claim, 2012-16
Figure 23: Meat and lunch meat introductions with free-from claims, 2016

What’s Struggling?
Consumption declines lead to significant sales declines, even among most popular brands
Figure 24: US red meat introductions, by date published, private label versus branded, 2012-16
Figure 25: Private label red meat introductions, 2016

What’s Next?
Variety of meats may increase appeal
Figure 26: Any red meat consumption, December 2016
Sustainability, environmental issues distinguish certain brands
Figure 27: Packaged meat launches with natural or environmental claim, 2012-17
Figure 28: Sustainable, environmentally conscious red meat introductions, 2016

The Consumer – What You Need to Know
Prices, though at their lowest in years, remain an issue
White consumers appear to be turning to protein sources other than beef
Weekly consumption of whole ham falls

Consumption of other red meats varies strongly by region
Health concerns deterring some consumers
Supermarkets most likely location for purchasing
Younger consumers less likely to appreciate meat's nutrition
Consumption of Red Meat
Consumers eating red meat, though not as regularly
Figure 29: Consumption, December 2016
Possible need to reintroduce consumers to red meat
Figure 30: Consumption, by opinions of red meat, December 2016
Weekly users more likely to purchase at mass merchandisers
Figure 31: Consumption, by red meat source, December 2016
Regular meat eaters appear interested in various cuisines
Figure 32: Consumption, by international food consumption, Mexican and Italian, December 2016

Beef Consumers
Sizable percentage refuse frozen beef options, but fewer Millennials
Figure 33: Beef consumption, December 2016
Younger consumers utilize frozen almost as often as refrigerated red meats
Figure 34: Beef consumption, by generations, December 2016
Weekly consumption drops for White consumers
Figure 35: Beef consumption, by race, December 2016
Figure 36: Beef consumption, by type, by race, Spring 2016
Higher-income consumers eating meat less often
Figure 37: Beef consumption, by household income, December 2016
Hispanic Millennials more likely to eat frozen
Figure 38: Beef consumption, by Hispanic origin, December 2016

Pork Consumers
Decline in pork consumption
Figure 39: Pork consumption, December 2016
Parents much more likely to seek whole ham options
Figure 40: Pork consumption, by parental status by gender with children in household, December 2016
Hispanic Millennials seeking whole ham options
Figure 41: Pork consumption, by Hispanic origin, December 2016

Consumption of Other Red Meat
Other red meat has room to grow
Figure 42: Other red meat consumption, December 2016
Millennials notably more likely to turn to other red meats
Figure 43: Other red meat consumption, any consumption in past six months, by generation, December 2016
Price plays a role in consumption of other red meats
Figure 44: Other red meat consumption, any consumption in past six months, by household income, December 2016
Regionally, consumers may be unaware of certain other red meats
Figure 45: Other red meat consumption, any consumption in past six months, by region, December 2016

Deterrents to Red Meat Consumption
Health issues appear to be deterring consumption
Figure 46: Red meat deterrents, December 2016
Health fears impacting older consumers
Figure 47: Health-related red meat deterrents, by generation, December 2016
One in five blacks eating less meat to lose weight
Figure 48: Health-related red meat deterrents, by race, December 2016
Price strongly deterring Hispanic consumers
Figure 49: Red meat deterrents, by Hispanic origin, December 2016

Purchase Location for Packaged Red Meat
Most red meat purchased at supermarkets
Figure 50: Red meat source, December 2016
Online appears to offer opportunity
Figure 51: Red meat source via online/subscription service, by age and gender, December 2016
Purchase factors vary considerably from supermarket to online
Figure 52: Red meat source (supermarket and online/subscription), by red meat attributes, December 2016
Lower-income households turning to mass merchandisers for red meat
Figure 53: Red meat source, by age and gender, December 2016
Hispanic Millennials purchasing at a variety of locations
Figure 54: Red meat source, by Hispanic origin, December 2016
Health, natural claims resonate more with natural/specialty shoppers
Figure 55: Red meat source (supermarket and natural/specialty), by red meat attributes, December 2016

Repertoire Analysis of Purchase Locations
Consumers trusting relatively few store types for red meat
Figure 56: Repertoire analysis, types of stores where red meat is purchased, December 2016
Figure 57: Repertoire analysis, types of stores where red meat is purchased, by demographics, December 2016
Appearance factors strongly
Figure 58: Repertoire of red meat source, by red meat attributes, December 2016

Opinions about Red Meat
Youngest consumers the least likely to appreciate red meat
Figure 59: Opinions about red meat, December 2016
Perceived value in fresher options
Figure 60: Opinions about red meat, by gender and age, December 2016
Consumers seeking expert guidance
Figure 61: Opinions about red meat confusion, by gender and age, December 2016
Quality and freshness appeal to Hispanic consumers
Figure 62: Opinions about purchasing red meat, by Hispanic origin, December 2016

Important Red Meat Attributes
Appearance matters, but other attributes factor strongly for Millennials
Figure 63: Red meat attributes, December 2016
Natural confusion could lead to organic appreciation
Figure 64: Natural red meat attributes, by age and gender, December 2016
Natural, organic options resonate strongly with Hispanic consumers
Figure 65: Red meat natural attributes, by Hispanic origin, December 2016
Appearance, natural appeal
Figure 66: TURF Analysis – Red meat attributes, December 2016

Purchasing Red Meat
Price, lack of awareness may impact some consumer choices
Figure 67: Opinions about purchasing red meat, December 2016
Expense, a leading deterrent to greater red meat consumption
Figure 68: Opinions about purchasing red meat, by household income, December 2016

Descriptors of Red Meat
How consumers regard red meats
Figure 69: Red meat description, December 2016
Butcher shop brands could leverage “natural”
Figure 70: Butcher shop red meat description, by generation, December 2016
Figure 71: Supermarket red meat (refrigerated) description, by generation, December 2016
Figure 72: Supermarket red meat (frozen) description, by generation, December 2016

Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations
Abbreviations

Appendix – Market
Figure 73: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 74: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 75: Total US retail sales and forecast of beef, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 76: Total US retail sales and forecast of pork, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 77: Total US retail sales and forecast of other red meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 78: Total US retail sales of packaged red meat, by channel, at current prices, 2011-16
Figure 79: US supermarket sales of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2011-16
Figure 80: US sales of packaged red meat through other retail channels, at current prices, 2011-16

Appendix – Key Players
Figure 81: MULO sales of beef, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Figure 82: MULO sales of pork, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016

Appendix – Consumer
Figure 83: Food statement agreement, any agree, by gender, Spring 2016
Figure 84: Food statement agreement, any agree, by age, Spring 2016
Figure 85: Food statement agreement, any agree, by race, Spring 2016
Figure 86: Food statement agreement, any agree, by region, Spring 2016
Figure 87: Meat/poultry consumption, by gender, Spring 2016
Figure 88: Meat/poultry consumption, by age, Spring 2016
Figure 89: Meat/poultry consumption, by race, Spring 2016
Figure 90: Meat/poultry consumption, by region, Spring 2016
Figure 91: Meat/poultry consumption, by Hispanic origin, Spring 2016
Figure 92: Beef consumption, by type, by gender, Spring 2016
Figure 93: Beef consumption, by type, by age, Spring 2016
Figure 94: Beef consumption, by type, by region, Spring 2016
Figure 95: Beef consumption, by type, by Hispanic origin, Spring 2016

Appendix – Correspondence Analysis Methodology
Figure 96: Red meat description, December 2016

Appendix – TURF Analysis Methodology
Figure 97: Table – TURF Analysis – Red meat attributes, December 2016

List of Table

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