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ON-PREMISE ALCOHOL TRENDS-US-APRIL 2018

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Apr 2018

Category :

Alcoholic Beverages

No. of Pages : N/A

Sales of alcohol on-premise are rising year-over-year thanks to consumers’ interest in premium alcoholic beverages. While the market is growing, competition among bars/restaurants has never been stronger. Foodservice establishments must contend with consumers’ preference for drinking at home and must prepare for the next generation of on-premise consumers. Establishments that focus on providing a unique drinking experience will stand out in the crowded market.

Table of contents

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
On-premise alcohol consumption falls
Figure 1: Changes in AFH drinking, by select demographics, January 2018
Consumers prefer drinking at home
Figure 2: AFH drinking attitudes, January 2018
Younger consumers enjoy the personal, controlled experience of drinking at home
Figure 3: Reasons for drinking AH instead of AFH, by generation, January 2018
The opportunities
Exploration is driving increased consumption among some consumers
Figure 4: Reasons for drinking AFH more often, January 2018
Consumers choose new drinks based on alcohol type and flavor
Figure 5: AFH new drink trial motivators, January 2018
Young consumers are interested in new drinks and exciting flavors
Figure 6: AFH drink interest, by generation, January 2018
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
iGens: pragmatic, activists, and in control
Premium drinks offset falling volume
Consumers are price sensitive despite strong economy
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Projected YOY on-premise sales growth
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart of on-premise alcohol sales, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol sales, at current prices, 2012-22
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Consumers are drinking less on-premise
Figure 9: Total on-premise alcohol consumption, liters per capita, 2010-20
Beer sales grow but segments struggle with different issues
Figure 10: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of beer, at current prices, 2012-22
Producers rise a glass to wine’s strong growth
Figure 11: Total US on and off-premise sales and fan chart forecast of wine, at current prices, 2011-21
Vodka maintains its top status, but whiskey is growing fast
Figure 12: Distribution of spirit sales by volume, by segment, 2017 (estimate)
Figure 13: Distribution of spirit sales by volume, by segment, 2017 (estimate)
White spirits
Figure 14: US volume sales and forecast of white spirits, by segment, 2012-22
Dark spirits
Figure 15: US volume sales of dark spirits, by segment 2012-22
Figure 16: US volume sales of whiskey/whisky, by type, 2012-17
RTD market benefits from innovation
Figure 17: US volume sales of flavored malt beverages, spirit-based prepared cocktails, and wine coolers, 2012-22
MARKET FACTORS
Many Americans are financially unstable despite strong economy
Figure 18: Financial stability and flexibility, by status level, November 2017
Will self-driving cars be the biggest boon to the on-premise market?
Alcohol avoiding/substitution topics are trending on social media
Figure 19: Social media mentions of “Whole 30,” 2013-17
Figure 20: Social media mentions of “Dry January,” 2013-18
Figure 21: Social media mentions of “mocktails,” 2013-17
MARKET FACTOR DEEP DIVE: IGENS
The kids are alright: meet the sober generation
Figure 22: Distribution of population aged 21+, 2018-23
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
It’s all about the experience
Beer market slows down and cider takes a dip
Take on-premise off-premise via delivery
WHAT’S WORKING?
Pop culture pubs
Alco-tourism appeals to the experiential drinker
Growth in ride-sharing sharing services benefits bars/restaurants
Figure 23: Mobility services used, April 2016-November 2017
Blurred beverages expose consumers to new categories
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Major casual dining chains face declining sales
Figure 24: Changes in casual dining chain visitation, by select demos, November 2017
Figure 25: Applebee’s email, “The DOLLARMAMA is still just…well, a dollar,” February 16, 2018
Figure 26: Applebee’s email, “ABSOLUT Vodka + Lemonade = $2,” March 3, 2018
Mass market beer is in trouble…and craft beer hits a rough patch
Figure 27: Total US volume sales of beer, by segment, 2012-20
Cider can’t sustain its growth
Figure 28: US volume sales of hard cider, 2012-16 (est)
“Fewer but better trend” is detrimental for value spirit brands
Figure 29: Percent change in 9-liter cases sold, 2012-17
WHAT’S NEXT?
Bringing the bar to you
Figure 30: TGI Friday’s alcohol delivery
Unfiltered and funky, natural wine enters the spotlight
Something’s in the water
Figure 31: Cocktails with waters as an ingredient
Zero waste hits mainstream
Drink locally, think globally
Figure 32: Internationally influenced cocktail examples
MINTEL MENU INSIGHTS ANALYSIS
Wine
Figure 33: Change in incidence of wine types, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
Sparkling wine
Figure 34: Change in incidence of sparkling wines, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
Red wine
Figure 35: Change in incidence of top 15 red wines, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
White wine
Figure 36: Change in incidence of top 15 white wines, Q4 2015 – Q4 2017
Dessert/fortified wine
Figure 37: Change in incidence of top 10 dessert/fortified wines, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
Beer
Figure 38: Average number of beers menued by restaurant segment, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
Figure 39: Average price of beer menued by restaurant segment, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
Figure 40: Growth of non-fruit beer flavors, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
Cocktails
Cocktail alcohol types
Figure 41: Change in incidence of alcohol types used in cocktails, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
Cocktail spirit trends
Figure 42: Change in incidence of spirits used in cocktails, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
Figure 43: Distribution of spirits used in cocktails, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
Figure 44: Change in incidence of spirit brands used in cocktails, top 25 brands Q4 2015-Q4 2017
Cocktail ingredient claims
Cocktail ingredient trends: non-alcoholic beverages
Figure 45: Change in incidence of non-alcoholic beverages used in cocktails, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
Cocktail ingredient trends: herbs/seasonings
Figure 46: Change in incidence of herbs and seasonings used in cocktails, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
Figure 47: Unique salts used in cocktails
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Reported alcohol consumption across venues is down
New drinks can spur consumption
Consumers of all ages prefer drinking AH
Drinking AH is relaxing, cheap, and more personal than drinking AFH
ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGE CONSUMPTION AND OCCASIONS: AH VS AFH
Most drinks are consumed AH
Figure 48: Alcoholic beverage consumption, AH vs AFH, January 2018
Alcoholic beverage consumption by demographics
Most occasions also occur within the home
Figure 49: Drinking occasions, AH vs AFH, January 2018
AFH DRINK INTEREST
Figure 50: AFH drink interest, January 2018
Figure 51: AFH drink interest, by Millennial groups, January 2018
Figure 52: Two Hats Online Ad, “’Meh’ No More”
TURF analysis: AFH drink interest
Figure 53: TURF analysis AFH drink interest, January 2018
Unique drinks attract multicultural consumers
Figure 54: AFH drink interest, by race/ethnicity, January 2018
Targeting drink-type consumers
Figure 55: AFH drink interest, top 5 drinks, by drink-type drinkers, indexed against all consumers, January 2017
Figure 56: AFH drink interest, top 5 drinks by drink-type drinkers, indexed against all consumers, January 2017
CHANGES IN AFH DRINKING
Slight net decrease in AFH drinking
Figure 57: Changes in AFH drinking, January 2018
Figure 58: Changes in AFH drinking, by select demographics, January 2018
FMB drinkers report greatest increase in consumption
Figure 59: Changes in AFH drinking, by drink-type drinkers, January 2018
REASONS FOR DRINKING AFH MORE
Variety drives increased consumption
Figure 60: Reasons for drinking AFH more often, January 2018
REASONS FOR DRINKING AFH LESS
Consumers are reducing their alcohol consumption or drinking AH
Figure 61: Reasons for drinking AFH less often, January 2018
CHANGES IN VENUE VISITATION
Traditional bars see greatest visitation drop
Figure 62: Changes in venue visitation, January 2018
Figure 63: Changes in venue visitation, rebased among visitors, January 2018
Venue switching deep dive: nightclubs and casual dining chains
Figure 64: Nightclub consumers: venue switching behaviors, rebased among visitors, January 2018
Figure 65: Casual dining chain consumers: venue switching behaviors, rebased among visitors, January 2018
Visitation changes dependent on income
Figure 66: Changes in venue visitation, rebased among visitors, by age and HH income, January 2018
NEW DRINK TRIAL MOTIVATORS
Consumers most open to drink types they already enjoy
Figure 67: AFH new drink trial motivators, January 2018
Figure 68: AFH new drink trial motivators, by area, any rank, January 2018
Men are brand-conscious purchasers
Figure 69: AFH new drink trial motivators, by gender and age, any rank, January 2018
Drink-type consumers respond to different motivators
Figure 70: AFH new drink trial motivators, by beer-type drinkers, any rank, January 2018
Drink specials motivate those drinking AFH less
Figure 71: AFH new drink trial motivators, by changes in AFH alcohol consumption, any rank, January 2018
AFH DRINKING ATTITUDES
Majority of consumers prefer drinking at home
Figure 72: AFH drinking attitudes, January 2018
Figure 73: AFH drinking attitudes, by changes in AFH alcohol consumption, January 2018
Delivery appeals to the “hometainment” generation
Figure 74: AFH drinking attitudes, by age, January 2018
Figure 75: AFH drinking attitudes, by age and gender, January 2018
Multicultural consumers often try before they buy
Figure 76: AFH drinking attitudes, by race/ethnicity, January 2018
Opportunity for FMB brands on-premise
Figure 77: AFH drinking attitudes, I try new drinks at bars before buying from stores, by drink-type drinkers, January 2018
REASONS FOR DRINKING AH
Home comforts and cheap drinks drive AH alcohol consumption
Figure 78: Reasons for drinking AH instead of AFH, by those who prefer drinking AH, January 2018
Young consumers want control, can’t be bothered to go out
Figure 79: Reasons for drinking AH instead of AFH, by generation, January 2018
Bars/restaurants losing price-conscious consumers
Figure 80: Reasons for drinking AH instead of AFH, by changes in AFH alcohol consumption, January 2018
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Consumption data: Mintel Market Sizes
Purchase Intelligence
Mintel Menu Insights
ePerformance
Social media methodology
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – THE MARKET
Figure 81: Total US sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER
TURF methodology

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