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NUTS, SEEDS AND TRAIL MIX - US - AUGUST 2018

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Aug 2018

Category :

Food

No. of Pages : N/A

Nuts, seeds, and trail mix benefit from a relatively healthy, not to mention natural, reputation. Brands leveraging such a reputation should be well-positioned to capitalize on increasing consumer interest in snacking and on healthier snack options, in particular. The challenge for the category will be in offering options that not only meet those demands, but which do so at a price point which consumers consider reasonable. Consumers appear to regard the category as akin to commodities and, as such, place significant emphasis on price in their product choice, far more than brand or even organic positioning.

Table of contents
OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Increasing usage should counter flat sales growth
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, at current prices, 2013-23
Consumers valuing value
Figure 2: Purchase influencers, June 2018
Price strongly impacts consumer interest in nuts/seeds/trail mix
Figure 3: Multi-outlet sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, in millions, by company, 52 weeks ending May 20, 2018, % comparison with 52 weeks ending May 20, 2017
The opportunities
Expand further into snacking and beyond
Figure 4: Usage, June 2018
Positioning around protein
Figure 5: Nutrition concerns, June 2018
Allergen-free potential for parents
Figure 6: Allergen-free interest, by parental status, June 2018
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Flat sales growth to gain strength
Nuts, already the largest segment, will outpace other segments
Powerful private label
Snacking's popularity “energizes” category
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Slower sales, yet signs of recovery
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, at current prices, 2013-23
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Nuts to grow significantly faster than seeds
Figure 9: Sales and forecast of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, by segment, current year
Other retail channels account for considerable sales
Figure 10: Total US retail sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, by channel, at current prices, 2013-18
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Private label options hold considerable market share
Figure 11: Nut, seed, and trail mix launches, branded versus private label, 2013-18
MARKET FACTORS
Obesity levels continue to rise
Figure 12: Percentage of consumers aged 20+ who are healthy weight, overweight, or obese, 2003-06 to 2011-14
Snacking proves prolific
Figure 13: Snacking frequency, March 2017
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Wonderful placement
Consider the cost
The challenge of going too extreme
Mixes could provide health benefits naturally
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF NUTS, SEEDS, AND TRAIL MIX
Sluggish category reflective of major brands
Sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, by company
Figure 14: Multi-outlet sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, in millions, by company, 52 weeks ending May 20, 2018, % comparison with 52 weeks ending May 20, 2017
WHAT’S WORKING?
Private labels prove price matters
Figure 15: private label nut introductions, 2017-18
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Novel flavors face challenges
Figure 16: Notably flavorful nut introductions, 2017-18
WHAT’S NEXT?
Natural and healthy motivate nut/seed consumers
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Consumption levels widespread
Younger consumers purchase from a greater variety of retailers
Health and natural resonate with Hispanic Millennials
Relatively untapped potential at breakfast
Salty flavors prove most popular
Leverage non-artificial and lack of additives/preservatives
Protein and healthy fats could boost the category
Potential for free-from claims
CATEGORY CONSUMPTION
Nut usage more widespread than seeds or trail mix
Figure 17: Consumption of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, June 2018
Older consumers far less engaged in the category
Figure 18: Consumption of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, by age, June 2018
Healthy snack potential likely luring parents
Figure 19: Consumption of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, by parental status, June 2018
Higher-income households more likely to engage in the category
Figure 20: Consumption of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, by household income, June 2018
Hispanics notably more likely to engage in the category
Figure 21: Consumption of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, by Hispanic origin, June 2018
PURCHASE LOCATION
Category consumers purchase mostly from supermarkets
Figure 22: Purchase location, June 2018
Younger consumers turn to variety of retailers for nuts/seeds
Figure 23: Purchase location, by age, June 2018
Lower-income consumers more likely to turn to dollar, convenience stores for nuts/seeds
Figure 24: Purchase location, by household income, June 2018
Health, natural resonate strongly in certain retail channels
Figure 25: Influences, by purchase location, June 2018
Seed consumers turn to variety of retailers
Figure 26: Purchase location, by consumption of nuts/seeds/trail mix, June 2018
PURCHASE INFLUENCES
Price factors strongly
Figure 27: Influences, June 2018
Ease, health resonating with parents
Figure 28: Influences, by parental status, June 2018
Health, natural of interest to Hispanic Millennials
Figure 29: Influences, by Hispanic origin, June 2018
USAGE
Nuts/seeds strongly associated with snacking
Figure 30: Usage, June 2018
Breakfast, a relatively untapped daypart for nuts/seeds
Figure 31: Usage, by parental status, June 2018
Leveraging morning occasion for Hispanic Millennials
Figure 32: Usage, by Hispanic origin, June 2018
FLAVORS OF INTEREST
Mining the potential of salt
Figure 33: Areas of interest, by consumption of nuts/seeds/trail mix, June 2018
Figure 34: US nut launches, by flavor, 2013-18
Non-artificial, salty snack in resealable packaging could resonate
Figure 35: TURF analysis – Areas of interest, June 2018
PACKAGING POTENTIAL
A role for resealable
Figure 36: Packaging potential, by age, June 2018
Single-serve packaging resonates with Hispanic Millennials
Figure 37: Packaging potential, by Hispanic origin, June 2018
NATURAL NUTS AND SEEDS
No-additive claims appeal to the widest base of consumers
Figure 38: Claims, by age, June 2018
Organics resonate strongly with Hispanic Millennials
Figure 39: Natural claims, by Hispanic origin, June 2018
NUTS AND NUTRITION OPINIONS
Nutrition resonating among nuts/seeds consumers
Figure 40: Opinions of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, net agree, by parental status, June 2018
Figure 41: Nuts, seeds, and trail mix compared to other snacks, net agree, by parental status, June 2018
CONCERNS
Price concerns significant among younger consumers
Figure 42: Expense concerns, by age, June 2018
Lower and free-from claims could resonate
Figure 43: Allergen-free interest, by parental status, June 2018
Figure 44: Fat content concerns, by parental status, June 2018
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE MARKET
Figure 45: Total US retail sales and forecast of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 46: Total US retail sales and forecast of nuts, seeds and trail mix, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 47: Total US retail sales and forecast of nuts, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of seeds, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of trail mix, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 50: Total US retail sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of nuts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of seeds, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of trail mix, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 54: Total US retail sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by channel, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
Figure 55: US supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, at current prices, 2013-18
Figure 56: US drugstore sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, at current prices, 2013-18
Figure 57: US sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix through other retail channels, at current prices, 2013-18
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS
Figure 58: Multi-outlet sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
Figure 59: Multi-outlet sales of nuts, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
Figure 60: Multi-outlet sales of seeds, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
Figure 61: Multi-outlet sales of trail mix, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
TURF ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY
Figure 62: Table – TURF analysis – Areas of interest, June 2018

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