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Juice and Juice Drinks - US - October 2016

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Oct 2016

Category :

Non-Alcoholic Drinks

No. of Pages : N/A

Like other non-alcoholic beverage leaders, including CSDs and dairy milk, the category is losing share to other beverage types that offer flavor variety and functional innovation, some with lower sugar/calorie totals. The importance of diversifying consumption occasions can be seen in the growth of snack-friendly smoothies and decline of 100% juice, which is often pigeonholed for breakfast.

Table of Contents

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Category stagnation continues
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, at current prices, 2011-21
100% juice struggles
Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
Morning leads as breakfast occasion; juice drinks/smoothies are versatile
Figure 3: Consumption occasion – Daypart, by drink type, July 2016
The opportunities
More than a quarter of category participants purchase organic products
Figure 4: Types purchased – Claims, by segment, July 2016
100% juice pack size decreases; smoothies grow
Figure 5: 100% juice, juice drink, and smoothie launches, by average launch size, 2012-16*
Retail placement has a strong impact on product perception
Figure 6: Correspondence analysis – Juice and juice drinks, July 2016
What it means

THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Category stagnation continues
Smoothies take dollar share away from 100% juice
100% juice struggles
Supermarkets lose share to convenience stores and other channels
Updated nutrition facts panel could help 100% juice

MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Category stagnation continues
Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21

MARKET BREAKDOWN
Smoothies take dollar share away from 100% juice
Figure 10: Total US retail sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, at current prices, by segment, 2011 and 2016 (est)
100% juice struggles
Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 12: MULO volume sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by segment, 2010 and 2015
Supermarkets lose share to convenience stores and other channels
Figure 13: Total US retail sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by channel, at current prices, 2011-16
Category continues strong growth across natural channels
Figure 14: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks July 13, 2014-July 10, 2016

MARKET PERSPECTIVE
The non-alcoholic beverage market is highly competitive
Figure 15: Non-alcoholic beverage consumption, November 2015
Figure 16: Percent change in sales non-alcoholic drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2014-15
If you can’t beat ‘em, mimic them
Figure 17: Correspondence analysis – Juice and juice drinks, October 2016
Figure 18: Juice and juice drinks, October 2016

MARKET FACTORS
Consumers see the benefit of healthy eating
Figure 19: Important to achieve good health – Any top three rank, May 2015
…but close to a third of consumers don’t have time for healthy meals
Figure 20: Attitudes toward health – Agree
Taste leads non-alcoholic beverage purchase decision
Figure 21: Beverage purchase factors – Any rank, April 2016
Government guidelines crack down on added sugar

KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
MULO sales are highly fragmented
Juice drink brands with natural positioning continue to thrive
100% juice pack size decreases; smoothies grow
Tropical flavors grow among launches, traditional flavors decline

LEADING COMPANY SALES OF 100% JUICE, JUICE DRINKS AND SMOOTHIES
MULO sales are highly fragmented
Brand sales of 100% juice, juice drinks and smoothies
Figure 22: MULO sales of 100% juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by leading companies, 52 weeks ending May 15, 2016
Figure 23: MULO sales of 100% juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016

WHAT’S WORKING?
Juice drink brands with natural positioning continue to thrive
Coca-Cola brands aim at adult audience, even for kid-focused products
Figure 24: “Simply Limeade® | How To Make A Spicy Pineapple Frozen Margarita,” online video, June 2016
Figure 25: “Tea Party with Dad & Mr. Bentley | Minute Maid Premium Fruit Punch Commercial,” online video, July 2016
Ocean Spray aims to expand appeal through function
Figure 26: “Ocean Spray® PACt® Cranberry Extract Water – A Better Water for a Better You,” online video, July 2016
Figure 27: MULO sales of juice drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Smoothies see 6% dollar sales growth at MULO
Figure 28: MULO sales of smoothies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
100% juice pack sizes decrease; smoothies grow
Figure 29: 100% juice, juice drink, and smoothie launches, by average launch size, 2012-16*
A third of smoothie launches in the past year carried an organic claim
Figure 30: 100% juice, juice drink, and smoothie launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
Tropical flavors grow among launches, traditional flavors decline
Figure 31: 100% juice, juice drink, and smoothie launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
Figure 32: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by flavor, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
Sales of stevia-sweetened products double from 2014-16 in natural channels
Figure 33: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by presence of alternative sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016

WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Florida’s Natural and V8 Fusion stumble
Figure 34: “Welch’s 100% Grape Juice has Something for Everyone,” online video, September 2016
Figure 35: MULO sales of 100% juice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Shelf stable launches decline
Figure 36: 100% juice, juice, drink and smoothie launches, by storage type, 2012-16*

WHAT’S NEXT?
Going beyond fruit and veg
Don’t be so sweet
Focus on function to diversify consumption occasions
Bulking up
Give ‘em a shot

THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
85% of consumers purchase products in the category; 100% juice leads
The category performs well for taste
Morning leads as breakfast occasion; juice drinks/smoothies are versatile
Retail placement has strong impact on product perception
Close to half of smoothie buyers purchase single-serving containers
More than a quarter of category participants purchase organic products
100% JUICE, JUICE DRINK, AND SMOOTHIE PURCHASE
85% of consumers purchase products in the category; 100% juice leads
Figure 37: Purchase, July 2016
A quarter of shoppers are purchasing products for children
Figure 38: Purchase – For a child under the age of 18, July 2016
Asian shoppers are strong targets for smoothie purchase
Figure 39: Purchase, by race, July 2016

REASONS FOR PURCHASE
The category performs well for flavor
Figure 40: Reasons for purchase, July 2016
The category hits the mark for iGens
Figure 41: Reasons for purchase – Enjoyment, by generation, July 2016
Health appeals to older consumers, Millennials look for other function
Figure 42: Reasons for purchase – Function, by generation, July 2016
Variety appeals to younger shoppers
Figure 43: Reasons for purchase – Other, by generation, July 2016
Juice drinks lead for refreshment
Figure 44: Reasons for purchase, by type consumed, July 2016

CONSUMPTION OCCASIONS
Three quarters of adults drink products in the category
Figure 45: Consumption, July 2016
100% juice does the best job of retaining consumers as they age
Figure 46: Consumption, by generation, July 2016
Hispanics are significantly more likely than non-Hispanics to drink juice drinks and smoothies
Figure 47: Consumption, by Hispanic origin, July 2016
Morning leads as consumption occasion; juice drinks/smoothies are versatile
Figure 48: Consumption occasion – Daypart, by drink type, July 2016
Room exists for diversifying occasions
Figure 49: Consumption occasion, by drink type, July 2016

RETAIL PLACEMENT
Retail placement has a strong impact on product perception
Figure 50: Correspondence analysis – Juice and juice drinks, July 2016
Figure 51: Juice and juice drinks, July 2016
The highest percentage of consumers purchase products in refrigerated dairy case
Figure 52: Retail placement – Something I buy, July 2016
iGens exhibit the largest range of in-store purchase locations
Figure 53: Retail placement – Something I buy, by generation, July 2016
Shelf stable may appeal for affordability
Figure 54: Retail placement – Something I buy, by HH income, July 2016
Smoothies do well at checkout
Figure 55: Retail placement – Something I buy, by type, July 2016

TYPES PURCHASED
Packaging
Close to half of smoothie buyers purchase single-serving containers
Figure 56: Types purchased – Size, by segment, July 2016
Single-serve formats appeal to younger shoppers
Figure 57: Types purchased – Size, by generation, July 2016
Plastic containers/jugs lead juice usage
Figure 58: Juice and juice drink forms used, July 2016
Storage
Use of refrigerated juice continues to lead
Figure 59: Juice and juice drink storage formats used, 2012 and 2016
Claims
More than a quarter of category participants purchase organic products
Figure 60: Types purchased – Claims, by segment, July 2016
iGens and Millennials are strong targets for product claims
Figure 61: Types purchased – Claims, by generation, July 2016
Flavor
Orange still leads HH consumption by a large margin
Figure 62: Juice and juice drink flavors used, 2016
Kids drive the popularity of certain flavors
Figure 63: Juice and juice drink flavors used, by presence of children, 2016
Close to a third of consumers purchase products made with vegetables
Figure 64: Types purchased – Select flavors, July 2016
Figure 65: Types purchased – Select flavors, by generation, July 2016
Concentrate
Consumers are slightly less likely to purchase juices made from concentrate
Figure 66: Types purchased – Concentrate, July 2016

APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Correspondence analysis methodology
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations

APPENDIX – MARKET
Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice drinks, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of 100% juice, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of 100% juice, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 71: Total US retail sales and forecast of smoothies, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 72: Total US retail sales and forecast of smoothies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 73: MULO volume sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by segment, 2010 and 2015
Figure 74: US supermarket sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, at current prices, 2011-16
Figure 75: US convenience store sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, at current prices, 2011-16
Figure 76: US sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies through other retail channels, at current prices, 2011-16
Figure 77: Smoothie launches, by store type, 2012-16*

APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS
Figure 78: MULO sales of 100% juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Figure 79: 100% juice, juice drink, and smoothie launches, by average launch size, 2012-16*
Figure 80: 100% juice launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
Figure 81: Juice drink launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
Figure 82: Smoothie launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
Figure 83: 100% juice launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
Figure 84: Juice drink launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
Figure 85: Smoothie launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
Figure 86: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by presence of alternative sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
Figure 87: 100% juice launches, by storage type, 2012-16*
Figure 88: Juice drink launches, by storage type, 2012-16*
Figure 89: Smoothie launches, by storage type, 2012-16*
Figure 90: Sales of 100% juice, by storage, at current prices, 2011-16 (est)
Figure 91: Sales of juice drinks, by storage, at current prices, 2011-16 (est)
Figure 92: Sales of 100% juice, by format, at current prices, 2011-16 (est)
Figure 93: Sales of juice drinks, by format, at current prices, 2011-16 (est)
Figure 94: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks July 13, 2014-July 10, 2016
Figure 95: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
Figure 96: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by flavor, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
Figure 97: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 7/13/14 and 7/10/16
Figure 98: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by gluten-free labelling/certification, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
Figure 99: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by GMO ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
Figure 100: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by "natural" labeling or perception, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
Figure 101: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by packaging, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
Figure 102: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by prebiotic and probiotic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016

APPENDIX – CONSUMER
Figure 103: Juice and juice drink forms used, 2012-16
Figure 104: Juice and juice drink forms used, by HH with children, 2016
Figure 105: Juice and juice drink storage formats used, 2012-16
Figure 106: Juice and juice drink flavors used, 2012-16
Figure 107: Juice and juice drink flavors used, by presence of children, 2016
Figure 108: Juice and juice drink flavors used, by race and Hispanic origin, 2016
Figure 109: Orange juice kinds used, 2012-16

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