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HYBRID AND ELECTRIC CARS-US-APRIL 2018

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Apr 2018

Category :

Machines

No. of Pages : N/A

Vehicle fuel economy is a top concern for Americans and their automobiles. Americans have seen gas prices go over $3.50 as recently as 2014, so many remember the pain of filling up a gas tank at those prices. Consumers are also increasingly aware of their environmental impact, and seek ways to minimize pollution and reduce their carbon footprint. 

Both the federal government and some state governments have made reducing vehicle emissions a priority, and have promoted more fuel-efficient cars by imposing fuel economy standards, emission standards, and providing tax incentives for hybrid and electric vehicles.

Despite increasing tax credits, the number of alternative energy vehicles sold have remained a minimal fraction of the total new car market, but attitudes seem to be shifting as governments across the globe announce plans to phase out traditional internal combustion engines. Car owners and shoppers seeking to reduce their spending at the gas station or are environmentally conscious have had an increasing number of hybrid and electric vehicle models to choose from in recent years, with even more planned for production in the next few years.

Table of Contents

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Overview
The issues
Exposure to hybrids and electric vehicles limited to households with higher incomes
Figure 1: Hybrid and electric vehicle ownership, by household income, February 2018
Nearly one in four current owners live in California
Figure 2: Hybrid and electric vehicle ownership, by geographic area, February 2018
Mild Hybrids expected to decline
Figure 3: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of mild hybrid vehicles, by units, 2012-22
The opportunities
Consideration rates for alternative energy vehicles are high
Figure 4: Hybrid and electric vehicle consideration, February 2018
Previous ownership drastically increases consideration
Figure 5: Hybrid and electric vehicle consideration rates, by HEV/EV ownership, February 2018
More than half agree EVs are the future and society should transition to emission-free transport
Figure 6: Attitudes toward hybrid and electric vehicles, February 2018
iGens and Millennials show highest interest in alternative energy vehicles
Figure 7: Hybrid and electric vehicle consideration, by generation, February 2018
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Alternative energy market forecasted for growth through 2022
The stakes are high for Tesla and its Model 3
Luxury brands have an outsized presence in the alternative energy market
SUVs and crossovers accounted for one in five AEV sales
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Alternative energy vehicles forecasted for growth through 2022
Figure 8: Total US volume sales and fan chart forecast of alternative energy vehicles 2012-22
Figure 9: Total US volume sales and forecast of hybrid and electric cars, 2012-22
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Hybrids and electric vehicles remain minimal fraction of overall automotive market
Figure 10: Percentage of new vehicle sales, by alternative energy vehicles, 2009-17
Plug-in vehicles, both PHEVs and EVs, are gaining market share
Figure 11: Percentage of total alternative energy vehicle sales, by alternative engine types, 2017
Figure 12: New units sold, by powertrain, 2009-17
Tesla should lead industry electric vehicle sales to new highs in US
Figure 13: Total US volume sales and fan chart forecast of battery electric vehicles, by units, 2012-22
Plug-in hybrids expected to continue modest growth
Figure 14: Total US volume sales and fan chart forecast of plug-in hybrid vehicles, by units, 2012-22
Mild hybrids may bear brunt of middling sales and the allure of new EVs
Figure 15: Total US volume sales and fan chart forecast of mild hybrid vehicles, by units, 2012-22
Luxury brands have outsized presence in alternative energy vehicles
Figure 16: Luxury brand market penetration as a percentage of total sales, by power train, 2017
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
SUV and crossover sales continue to gain market share
Figure 17: SUV and crossover market share of new vehicle sales, January 2018-March 2018
MARKET FACTORS
Gas prices play a significant factor in automotive decisions
Figure 18: Alternative energy vehicle market share and average cost per gallon of gas, 2009-17
Government incentives will continue to drive sales in the electric vehicle segment
Government bans on ICE vehicles force manufacturers’ hands
Increasing interest rates may cool new car sales
Consumer confidence remains high, unemployment low boding well for AEV market
Figure 19: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-January 2018
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Tesla needs to deliver on Model 3s to stay ahead in electric vehicle segment
Jaguar’s I-Pace set to challenge Tesla’s Model X
Japanese manufacturers stick with fuel cell vehicles
Volkswagen pivots from “Green Diesel” to electric vehicles
Toyota reigns supreme in mild hybrid segment
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF HYBRIDS AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Toyota stands alone in the mild hybrid segment
Figure 20: Mild hybrid units sold, by automotive manufacturer, 2017
Figure 21: Mild hybrid units sold, by automotive brand, 2017
Plug-in hybrids segment smaller but competitive
Figure 22: Plug-in hybrid units sold, by automotive manufacturer, 2017
Figure 23: Plug-in hybrid units sold, by automotive brand, 2017
Tesla leading off electric vehicle sales
Figure 24: Battery electric units sold, by manufacturer, 2017
Figure 25: Battery electric units sold, by brand, 2017
WHAT’S WORKING?
Electric vehicle sales expected to grow in upcoming years
Toyota continues its dominance over mild hybrid segment
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Alternative energy vehicles stay below 5% of the total market
Fuel cell and natural gas vehicle sales virtually non-existent in US
WHAT’S NEXT?
Jaguar takes aim at the Tesla Model X
Volkswagen atones for “Diesel-Gate” with new electric vehicle models
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Consumer purchase intent continues to trend downward
Alternative energy vehicle ownership experience is limited among general public
One in four current alternative energy vehicle owners live in California
Car shoppers willing to consider hybrids or electric vehicles
Cost remains the main barrier of entry for consumers
PURCHASE INTENT
Purchase intent continues to trend down in a stagnant market
Figure 26: Purchase intent, February 2018
Figure 27: Purchase intent, July 2016-January 2018
New home or family members in the home spur auto purchases
Figure 28: Purchase intent, by major life events, February 2018
Older Millennials show most immediate purchase intent
Figure 29: Purchase intent, by generation, February 2018
HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLE OWNERSHIP
Ownership experience for hybrids and EVs is extremely limited
Figure 30: Hybrid and electric vehicle ownership, February 2018
Higher costs continue to limit exposure in the market
Figure 31: Household income, by current and previous hybrid/EV owners, February 2018
Millennials account for most hybrid and EV owners
Figure 32: Generations, by HEV/EV ownership, February 2018
Nearly one in four current EV/HEV owners lives in California
Figure 33: Hybrid and electric vehicle ownership, by geographic area, February 2018
HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLE CONSIDERATION
Overall market is open to the idea of alternative energy vehicles
Figure 34: Hybrid and electric vehicle consideration, February 2018
Millennials most likely to consider alternative energy vehicles
Figure 35: Hybrid and electric vehicle consideration, by generation, February 2018
Previous experience with AEVs greatly increases consideration rates
Figure 36: Hybrid and electric vehicle consideration, by hybrid and electric vehicle ownership, February 2018
CHAID analysis
Figure 37: Hybrid and electric vehicle purchase – CHAID – Tree output, February 2018
TYPE OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY VEHICLE
Mild hybrids draw the most interest among consumers
Figure 38: Type of alternative energy vehicle, February 2018
iGens show least interest in mild hybrids, highest interest in EVs
Figure 39: Type of alternative energy vehicle, by generation, February 2018
Significant overlap in interest between AEV types
Figure 40: Type of alternative energy vehicle, by type of alternative energy vehicle, February 2018
REASONS FOR CONSIDERING A HYBRID OR ELECTRIC VEHICLE
Gas savings take top priority among those interested in AEVs
Figure 41: Reasons for considering HEV/EV, February 2018
Youngest and oldest shoppers most likely to buy a green car to help the environment
Figure 42: Reasons for considering HEV/EV – Concern about environment, by age, February 2018
Figure 43: Chevrolet Bolt, online display ad, June 2017
Figure 44: Chevrolet Bolt, online display ad, November 2017
Lower-income households less likely to cite government tax incentives as a purchase reason
Figure 45: Reasons for considering an HEV/EV, by household income, February 2018
Figure 46: Honda Clarity Plug-in Hybrid, acquisition email, February 2018
Younger generations like the style and image an AEV presents
Figure 47: Reasons for considering an HEV/EV, February 2018
Technology an appealing feature for Black and Hispanic consumers
Figure 48: Reasons for considering an HEV/EV, February 2018
Figure 49: Nissan Leaf promotional email, informational email, February 2018
REASONS FOR NOT CONSIDERING A HYBRID OR ELECTRIC VEHICLE
Price is the main barrier to entry in the segment
Figure 50: Reasons for not considering HEV/EV, February 2018
ELECTRIC VEHICLE FACTORS
Range anxiety top concern for consumers
Figure 51: Factors for buying an electric vehicle, February 2018
VEHICLE ATTRIBUTES
AEVs must improve their perceptions of affordability, safety, and reliability
Figure 52: Vehicle attributes, by vehicle types, part 1, February 2018
Figure 53: Vehicle attributes, by vehicle type, part 2, February 2018
Tesla improves luxurious perception of EVs
Figure 54: Correspondence analysis – Car type attributes, February 2018
Figure 55: Correspondence analysis – Car type attributes, December 2015
AEVs fall short in safety perception
Figure 56: Vehicle attributes, by gender, February 2018
ATTITUDES TOWARD HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Battery life span tops concern for consumers
Figure 57: Attitudes toward hybrids and electric vehicles, part 1, February 2018
Skepticism over resale values for hybrid vehicles
Figure 58: Attitudes toward hybrids and electric vehicles, part 2, February 2018
CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF ATTITUDES TOWARD HYBRIDS AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Figure 59: Cluster analysis, February 2018
Cost Focused Shoppers
Characteristics
Figure 60: Vehicle attributes, by Cost Focus Shoppers, February 2018
Figure 61: Profile of Cost Focused Shoppers, February 2018
Opportunities
Image Focused Shoppers
Characteristics
Figure 62: Reasons for considering an HEV/EV, by cluster groups, February 2018
Figure 63: Profile of Image Focused Shoppers, February 2018
Opportunities
Balanced Approach Shoppers
Characteristics
Figure 64: Profile of Balanced Approach Shoppers, February 2018
Opportunities
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Direct marketing creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – THE MARKET
Figure 65: Alternative energy vehicle sales, by model, 2017

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