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Future of the Turkish Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2018

Published By :

Strategic Defence Intelligence

Published Date : Sep 2013

Category :

Defense and Security

No. of Pages : 129 Pages


Product Synopsis

This report is the result of SDI\'s extensive market and company research covering the Turkish defense industry, and provides detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values including key growth stimulators, analysis of the leading companies in the industry, and key news.

Introduction and Landscape

Why was the report written?

The Future of the Turkish Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2018 offers the reader an insight into the market opportunities and entry strategies adopted by foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to gain a market share in the Turkish defense industry.

What is the current market landscape and what is changing?

Turkey, one of Europe\'s most attractive defense markets, allocated a military budget of US$15.3 billion in 2013, which increased at a CAGR of 3.3% during the review period. The country is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.6% to reach US$21.3 billion by 2018. Turkey\'s defense expenditure will largely be driven by a strained relationship with Greece, persistent terror threats, and instability within the region, considering the 28-year-old fight against the Kurdistan Workers\' Party (PKK) one of the major factors. The country has no plans to decrease its defense budget and is expected to increase its expenditure on procurement for the foreseeable future. The capital expenditure allocation of the defense budget averaged 26.4% during the review period and is expected to increase to an average of 29.7% over the forecast period. This increase is primarily due to the country\'s procurement plans including Joint Strike Fighter F-35, A400M transport aircraft and the Type-214 air-independent propulsion submarine and modernization plans lined up during the forecast period. The current modernization trend aims to have smaller and more advanced forces with greater mobility and firepower.

What are the key drivers behind recent market changes?

Participation in Peacekeeping missions, a reduction in foreign dependency for military equipment, threats due to the Kurdish Workers Party and other external factors, and military modernization initiatives to drive defense expenditure during the forecast period.

What makes this report unique and essential to read?

The Future of the Turkish Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2018 provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2014 to 2018, including highlights of key growth stimulators. It also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.

Key Features and Benefits

  • The report provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2014 to 2018, including highlights of key growth stimulators, and also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.
  • The report includes trend analysis of imports and exports, together with their implications and impact on the Turkish defense industry.
  • The report covers five forces analysis to identify various power centers in the industry and how these are expected to develop in the future.
  • The report allows readers to identify possible ways to enter the market, together with detailed descriptions of how existing companies have entered the market, including key contracts, alliances, and strategic initiatives.
  • The report helps the reader to understand the competitive landscape of the defense industry in Turkey. It provides an overview of key defense companies, both domestic and foreign, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.

Key Market Issues

  • Until 2004, the Turkish Ministry of Defense was highly trusted, and defense deals were not scrutinized for instances of corruption and bribery; however, during the review period, high ranking defense officials were convicted on charges of malpractice. For example, in 2004, a former commander of the Turkish Navy was accused of bribing defense procurement officials in order to ensure defense procurement from a domestic firm owned by close associates.
  • Throughout the review period, Turkey has invested in substantial defense procurements, and its military modernization program is currently approaching completion. The country is in possession of a well-developed domestic defense industry which is primarily dependent on Turkish defense expenditure. However, the country has now achieved the majority of its military modernization plans and this, coupled with the impact of the global economic recession, has resulted in the postponement of a number of defense procurement programs. As a result, no major procurements are expected over the forecast period and this will force the domestic defense industry to cater to small defense procurements or develop an export market for its products.

Key Highlights

  • Strained relationship with Greece: Since the 1970s, Turkey and Greece have been engaged in a dispute over territorial rights in the Aegean Sea, with both countries laying claim to the Aegean continental shelf. The central issues between the two countries are the exploration rights to minerals and oil under the seabed, and air control responsibilities. Furthermore, the two nations are involved in a conflict over the control of Cyprus. Despite recent efforts made on behalf of both countries\' governments to resolve the ongoing dispute, territorial conflicts remain largely unresolved and will continue to fuel Turkish defense expenditure. Instability within geographical region: Turkey shares borders with both Iran and Syria, and although the three countries share a peaceful relationship, the increasing defense capabilities of Iran and Syria in missile defense and weapons of mass destruction are perceived by Turkey as a potential security threat. Consequently, throughout the forecast period the country will focus on the enhancement of its missile defense capabilities. Additionally, hostility among Middle Eastern states such as Israel and Iran, combined with turbulence among the newly independent republics of the Caucasus region such as Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, threaten to disturb Turkish borders. Turkey will increase defense expenditure over the forecast period in order to safeguard its national security. 
  • Threat from separatists and extremists: A major challenge to the country\'s homeland security is posed by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), an organization which resorts to violent methods in an attempt to establish an independent Kurdish state. The Turkish government is currently holding peace talks with PKK, which are threatened by the Syrian Civil war as Kurdish militants supply arms to PKK. In addition, the nation is also prone to terror attacks from global terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaeda and the Revolutionary People\'s Liberation Party. In order to prevent such attacks, the nation plans to invest in unmanned aerial vehicles, improvised explosive device (IED) jammers, intelligence and communication systems, and reconnaissance and surveillance satellites.
  • Pakistan being the largest recipient of the Turkish defense equipment, modernized its older US-built F-16 fighter jets by Turkish Aerospace Industries. The country also receives wireless equipment from Turkey\'s military electronics firm Aselsan. During 2012, there were some additions to the export partner list including Turkmenistan, which signed an agreement in October 2010 to purchase two new generation patrol boats from Turkish private shipyard, Dearsan Shipyard for a contract value of  EUR55 million.
Table of Content

1 Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. SDI Research Terrorism Index
1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence

2 Executive Summary

3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1. Turkey defense expenditure expected to grow steadily during the forecast
3.1.2. A strained relationship with Greece, instability within the region, security threats, peacekeeping missions and reduction in foreign dependency for military equipment will drive Turkish defense expenditure over the forecast period
3.1.3. Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to decrease to 1.7% by 2018
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1. Capital expenditure share to increase to US$6.4 billion by 2018
3.2.2. Capital expenditure to increase significantly over the next five years
3.2.3. Turkey expected to spend US$14.9 billion on revenue expenditure over the forecast period
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1. Homeland security (HLS) expenditure expected to grow steadily during the forecast period
3.3.2. Threats from seperatists, extremists, Syrian conflict, illegal immigration and drug trade to drive homeland security expenditure
3.3.3. Turkey faces a moderate level of terrorist threat
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1. Turkey is ranked among the top fifteen defense spending countries in the world
3.4.2. The country will continue to be a relatively small participant in the global arms market
3.4.3. Turkey defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to decrease
3.4.4. Turkey has a moderate per-capita defense expenditure
3.4.5. Turkey faces moderate threat from foreign terrorist organizations
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
3.5.1. Fighters and Multi-Role Aircrafts
3.5.2. Air Defense Missile Systems
3.5.3. Multi mission and Rescue Helicopters
3.5.4. Frigates
3.5.5. Corvettes
3.5.6. Diesel Electric:

4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. Defense imports expected to decrease during the forecast period
4.1.2. The US was the primary supplier of arms to Turkey
4.1.3. Aircraft were the major defense imports during the review period
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Turkey aims to be among the top ten defense exporters by 2023
4.2.2. Pakistan emerged as largest importer of Turkish defense equipment during the period 2008-2012
4.2.3. Armored vehicles accounts for the major defense exports during the review period

5 Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: High
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: Medium
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: High
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: High

6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. The Turkish government encourages offsets in order to develop the country\'s domestic industrial defense base
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Joint venture provides market entry opportunity for foreign OEMs
6.2.2. Joint research and development programs provide foreign OEMs with an opportunity for market entry
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Corruption poses a challenge to the success of defense deals
6.3.2. Completion of military modernization plans, project delays, and cost escalation expected to limit new projects

7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.2. Key Private Sector Companies
7.2.1. Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft (HDW): Overview
7.2.2. Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft: Major Products and Services
7.2.3. Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft: alliances
7.2.4. Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft: recent contract wins
7.2.5. Lockheed Martin: overview
7.2.6. Lockheed Martin: Major Products and Services
7.2.7. Lockheed Martin: recent announcements and strategic initiatives:
7.2.8. Lockheed Martin: Alliances
7.2.9. Lockheed Martin: Recent Contract Wins
7.2.10. BAE Systems: overview
7.2.11. BAE Systems: Major products and services
7.2.12. BAE Systems: Alliances
7.2.13. BAE Systems: Recent Contract Wins
7.3. Key Foreign Companies
7.3.1. Otokar: overview
7.3.2. Otokar: Major products and services
7.3.3. Otokar: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.3.4. Otokar: alliances
7.3.5. Otokar: recent contract wins
7.3.6. Otokar: Financial Analysis
7.3.7. Roketsan: overview
7.3.8. Roketsan: products and services
7.3.9. Roketsan: recent announcements and strategic initiatives.
7.3.10. Roketsan: alliances
7.3.11. Roketsan: recent contract wins
7.3.12. Makina ve Kimya Endüstrisi Kurumu (MKEK): overview
7.3.13. Makina ve Kimya Endüstrisi Kurumu (MKEK): products and services
7.3.14. Makina ve Kimya Endüstrisi Kurumu (MKEK): Alliances
7.3.15. Aselsan: overview
7.3.16. Aselsan: products and services
7.3.17. Aselsan: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.3.18. Aselsan: Alliances
7.3.19. Aselsan: recent contract wins
7.3.20. Aselsan: Financial Analysis
7.3.21. Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI): overview
7.3.22. Turkish Aerospace Industries: products and services
7.3.23. Turkish Aerospace Industries: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.3.24. Turkish Aerospace Industries: Alliances
7.3.25. Turkish Aerospace Industries: Recent Contract Wins
7.3.26. Havelsan: overview
7.3.27. Havelsan: products and services
7.3.28. Havelsan: Recent announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.3.29. Havelsan: Alliances
7.3.30. Havelsan: Recent contract wins
7.3.31. Havelsan: Financial Analysis
7.4. Key Private Sector Companies
7.4.1. Tusas Engine Industries (TEI): overview
7.4.2. Samsung Thales: products and services
7.4.3. Tusas Engine Industries, Inc. (TEI): recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.4.4. Tusas Engine Industries, Inc. (TEI): Alliances
7.4.5. Tusas Engine Industries, Inc. (TEI): Alliances
7.4.6. FNSS Defense Systems Co: overview
7.4.7. FNSS Defense Systems Co: Major Products and Services
7.4.8. FNSS Defense Systems Co: Recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.4.9. FNSS Defense Systems: Alliances
7.4.10. FNSS Defense Systems Co: Recent Contract Wins
7.4.11. Istanbul Shipyard: Overview
7.4.12. Istanbul: products and services
7.4.13. Istanbul Shipyard: Recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.4.14. Isantbul Shipyard: Recent contract wins

8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Demographics and Social Statistics
8.1.1. Urban Population
8.1.2. Rural Population
8.1.3. Number of Households
8.2. Economic Performance
8.2.1. GDP Per Capita
8.2.2. GDP, Current Prices
8.2.3. Consumer Price Index
8.2.4. Wholesale Price Index
8.2.5. Local Currency Unit per USD
8.2.6. Deposit Rate
8.2.7. Goods Exports as % of GDP
8.2.8. Goods Imports as % of GDP
8.2.9. Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP
8.2.10. Service Imports as % of GDP
8.2.11. Service Exports as % of GDP
8.2.12. Service Trade Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP
8.2.13. Foreign Direct Investments
8.2.14. Net Foreign Direct Investments as % of GDP
8.2.15. International reserves, including gold
8.2.16. Market Capitalization of listed companies
8.2.17. Market Capitalization of listed companies as % of GDP
8.3. Energy and Utilities
8.3.1. Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion kWh)
8.3.2. Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Billion kW)
8.3.3. Petroleum Consumption
8.3.4. Total Non Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts)
8.3.5. Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet)s
8.3.6. Hydro Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours)
8.4. Infrastructure
8.4.1. Air Transport, Freight (million ton-km)
8.4.2. Rail Lines
8.4.3. Roads, Total network
8.4.4. Overall Construction
8.5. Minerals
8.5.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output
8.6. Technology
8.6.1. Patents Granted
8.6.2. Research and Development Expenditure
8.7. Telecommunication
8.7.1. Telephone lines
8.7.2. Telephone lines Penetration Rate

9 Appendix
9.1. About SDI
9.2. Disclaimer

List of Table


Table 1: Turkish Defense Expenditure, 2009-2013 
Table 2: Turkish Defense Expenditure, 2014-2018 
Table 3: Turkish GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2009-2013 
Table 4: Turkish GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as  Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2018 
Table 5: Turkish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2009-2013 
Table 6: Turkish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),  2014-2018 
Table 7: Turkish Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2009-2013 
Table 8: Turkish Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2014-2018 
Table 9: Turkish Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2009-2013 
Table 10: Turkish Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ billion), 2014-2018 
Table 11: Turkish Homeland Security Budget, 2009-2013 
Table 12: Turkish Homeland Security Budget, 2014-2018 
Table 13: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2009-2013 vs. 2014-2018 
Table 14: SDI Terrorism Index 
Table 15: Offset Regulations in Turkey 
Table 16: Technological Cooperation, Investment, and RandD Multiplier Provision 
Table 17: Multipliers for Export Related Systems 
Table 18: Market Entry by Key Foreign Companies 
Table 19: Market Entry by Key Foreign Companies 
Table 20: Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft (HDW) - Major Products and Services 
Table 21: Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft - Alliances 
Table 22: Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft (HDW) - Recent Contract Wins 
Table 23: Lockheed Martin - Major Products and Services 
Table 24: Lockheed Martin - Alliances 
Table 25: Lockheed Martin - Recent Contract Wins 
Table 26: BAE Systems - Major Products and Services 
Table 27: BAE Systems - Alliances 
Table 28: BAE Systems - Recent Contract Wins 
Table 29: Otokar - Major Products and Services 
Table 30: Otokar - Alliances 
Table 31: Otokar - Recent Contract Wins 
Table 32: Roketsan - Major Products and Services 
Table 33: Roketsan - Alliances 
Table 34: Roketsan - Recent Contract Wins 
Table 35: Makina ve Kimya Endüstrisi Kurumu (MKEK)  - Major Products and Services 
Table 36: Makina ve Kimya Endüstrisi Kurumu (MKEK)  - Alliances 
Table 37: Aselsan - Major Products and Services 
Table 38: Aselsan - Alliances 
Table 39:  Aselsan - Recent Contract Wins 
Table 40: Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) - Major Products and Services 
Table 41: Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) - Alliances 
Table 42: Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) - Recent Contract Wins 
Table 43: Havelsan - Major Products and Services 
Table 44: Havelsan - Alliances 
Table 45: Havelsan - Recent Contract Wins 
Table 46: Tusas Engine Industries, Inc. (TEI) - Major Products and Services 
Table 47: Tusas Engine Industries, Inc. (TEI) - Alliances 
Table 48: Tusas Engine Industries, Inc. (TEI) - Recent Contract Wins 
Table 49: FNSS Defense Systems Co - Major Products and Services 
Table 50:Tusas Engine Industries, Inc. (TEI) - Alliances 
Table 51: FNSS Defense Systems Co  - Recent Contract Wins 
Table 52: Istanbul Shipyard - Major Products and Services 
Table 53 Istanbul Shipyard - Recent Contract Wins

List of Chart

\"Figure 1: Turkish Defense Expenditure, 2009-2013 
Figure 2: Turkish Defense Expenditure, 2014-2018 
Figure 3: Turkish GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as  Percentage of GDP Growth, 2009-2013 
Figure 4: Turkish GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2018 
Figure 5:Turkish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2009-2013 
Figure 6: Turkish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2018 
Figure 7: Turkish Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2009-2013 
Figure 8: Turkish Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2014-2018 
Figure 9: Turkish Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ billion), 2009-2013 
Figure 10: Turkish Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ billion), 2014-2018 
Figure 11: Turkish Homeland Security Budget, 2009-2013 
Figure 12: Turkish Homeland Security Budget, 2014-2018 
Figure 13: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2013 
Figure 14: SDI Terrorism Index, 2013 
Figure 15: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2009-2013 vs. 2014-2018 
Figure 16: Defense Expenditure of the World\'s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion),  2013 and 2018 
Figure 17: Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2013 
Figure 18: Per-capita Defense Expenditure of the Largest Military Spenders in the World (US$), 2013 
Figure 19: Fighters and Multi Role Aircraft (US$ Million), 2013-2023 
Figure 20: Air Defense Missile Systems (US$ Million), 2013-2023 
Figure 21: Multi Mission and Rescue Helicopter: (US$ Million), 2013-2023 
Figure 22: Frigates (US$ Million), 2013-2023 
Figure 23: Corvettes (US$ Million), 2013-2023 
Figure 24: Diesel Electric Submarines (US$ Million), 2013-2023 
Figure 25: Turkey Defense Imports Trend, 2008-2012 
Figure 26: Turkish Defense Imports by Country (%), 2008-2012 
Figure 27: Turkish Defense Imports by Category (%), 2008-2012 
Figure 28: Turkish Defense Exports Trend, 2008-2012 
Figure 29: Turkish Defense Exports by Country (US$ million), 2008-2012 
Figure 30: Turkish Defense Exports by Category (%), 2008-2012 
Figure 31: Industry Dynamics Porter\'s Five Forces Analysis 
Figure 32: Otokar - Revenue Trend Analysis, FY2007-2011 
Figure 33: Otokar - Operating Profit Trend Analysis, FY2007-2011 
Figure 34: Otokar - Net Profit Trend Analysis, FY2007-2011 
Figure 35: Aselsan - Revenue Trend Analysis, 2007-2011 
Figure 36: Aselsan - Operating Profit Trend Analysis, 2007-2011 
Figure 37: Aselsan - Net Profit Trend Analysis, 2007-2011 
Figure 38: Havelsan - Revenue Trend Analysis, 2007-2010 
Figure 39: Turkish Urban Population (In Millions), 2009-2018 
Figure 40: Turkish Rural Population (In Millions), 2009-2018 
Figure 41: Turkish Number of Households - (In Millions), 2008-2017 
Figure 42: Turkish GDP Per Capita, 2008-2017 
Figure 43: Turkish GDP Current Prices, 2009-2018 
Figure 44: Turkish Consumer Price Index, 2008-2017 
Figure 45: Turkish Wholesale Price Index, 2002-2011 
Figure 46: Turkish LCU per USD, 2009-2018 
Figure 47: Turkish Deposit Rate (%), 2002-2011 
Figure 48: Turkish Good Exports as (% of GDP), 2002-2011 
Figure 49: Turkish Good Imports as (% of GDP), 2002-2011 
Figure 50: Turkish Goods Balance (% GDP), 2002-2011 
Figure 51: Turkish Service Imports (% GDP), 2002-2011 
Figure 52: Turkish Service Exports (% GDP), 2002-2011 
Figure 53: Turkish Service Trade Surplus/Deficit (% GDP), 2002-2011 
Figure 54: Turkish Foreign Direct Investments (BoP, current US$ billion), 2002-2011 
Figure 55: Turkish Net Foreign Direct Investments (% GDP), 2002-2011 
Figure 56: Turkish International Reserves, including gold (US$ billion), 2002-2011 
Figure 57: Turkish Market Capitalization of listed companies (US$ billion), 2003-2012 
Figure 58: Turkish Market Capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP), 2002-2011 
Figure 59: Turkish Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours),  2002-2011 
Figure 60: Turkey Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts), 2001-2010 
Figure 61: Turkish Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2003-2012 
Figure 62: Turkish Total Non Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts), 2002-2011 
Figure 63: Turkish Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2004-2013 
Figure 64: Hydro Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2002-2011 
Figure 65: Turkish Air Transport, Freight (million ton-kilometers), 2002-2011 
Figure 66: Turkish Rail Lines (total route-km), 2002-2011 
Figure 67: Turkish Roads, total network (total route-km), 2003-2010 
Figure 68: Turkish Overall Construction (US$ million), 2007-2018 
Figure 69: Turkish Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ billion), 2002-2011 
Figure 70: Turkish Patents Granted, 2003-2012 
Figure 71: Turkish Research and Development Expenditure (LCU thousands), 2001-2010 
Figure 72: Turkish Telephone lines (in million), 2002-2011 
Figure 73: Turkish Telephone lines Penetration Rate (per 100 people) 2002-2011

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