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Future of the Bangladesh Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022

Published By :

Strategic Defence Intelligence

Published Date : Sep 2017

Category :

Defense and Security

No. of Pages : 87 Pages

Future of the Bangladesh Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Synopsis

This report offers detailed analysis of the Bangladeshi defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following - 

  • The Bangladeshi defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Bangladeshi defense industry during 2018-2022, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns 
  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
  • Porter’s Five Force analysis of the Bangladeshi defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry 
  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years 
  • Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years
  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Bangladeshi defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Scope

  • The Bangladeshi government has been steadily increasing its defense budget 2015 - 2017. Defense expenditure registered a CAGR of 13.10% over 2013-2017. The country allocated US$2.0 billion to its defense sector in 2013, which increased to US$3.3 billion in 2017. This trend is expected to continue during the forecast period, owing to the government’s well-defined military modernization plans to better equip its armed forces.
  • Revenue expenditure allocation increased from 69.3% in 2013 to 76.1% in 2017 due to the country’s defense modernization efforts. Conversely, the country’s capital expenditure declined from 30.7% to 23.9% during the historic period. Over the forecast period, Bangladesh is expected to allocate an average of 25.5% of its defense budget to capital expenditure, while the remainder will be assigned to revenue expenditure.
  • The MoD is expected to invest in acquisition of frigates and corvettes.

Reasons to buy

  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Bangladeshi defense industry market trends for the coming five years
  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
  • Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
  • A deep qualitative analysis of the Bangladeshi defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts

Table of Contents

1. Introduction 7

1.1. What is this Report About? 7
1.2. Definitions 7
1.3. Summary Methodology 9
1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence 10

2. Executive Summary 11

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 13

3.1. Current Market Scenario 14
3.1.1. Primary Threat Perception 14
3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy 16
3.1.3. Military Fleet Size 17
3.1.4. Procurement Programs 21
3.1.5. Social, Political and Economic Environment & Support for Defense Projects 23
3.1.6. Political and Strategic Alliances 24
3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 25
3.2.1. The Bangladeshi defense budget is expected to reach US$5.4 billion by 2022, at a CAGR of 10.36% 25
3.2.2. Military modernization and peacekeeping missions are expected to drive defense expenditure over the forecast period 27
3.2.3. Bangladeshi defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP set to increase over the forecast period 29
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 31
3.3.1. Capital expenditure allocation is expected to increase slightly over the forecast period 31
3.3.2. Need to replace obsolete equipment to drive defense capital expenditure 33
3.3.3. Need to replace obsolete equipment to drive defense expenditure 35
3.3.4. Budget allocation on army is expected to remain highest over the forecast period 37
3.3.5. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period 41
3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 42
3.4.1. Bangladeshi homeland security expenditure is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.99% over the forecast period 42
3.4.2. Measures to combat drug smuggling and human trafficking are expected to drive Bangladeshi homeland security expenditure 44
3.4.3. Bangladesh falls under the “highly affected” category 45
3.4.4. Bangladesh is “highly affected” by acts of terrorism 46
3.4.5. Bangladesh has a terrorism index score of “6.5” 48
3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 49
3.5.1. Bangladeshi defense budget expected to increase at a CAGR of 10.36% over the forecast period 49
3.5.2. Bangladeshi military expenditure remains very low compared to other Asian countries 51
3.5.3. The country allocates a low percentage of its GDP towards the defense sector 52
3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 53
3.6.1. Demand for frigates is forecast to increase 53
3.6.2. Increase demand for corvettes 54

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 55
4.1. Import Market Dynamics 56
4.1.1. Defense imports are expected to increase over 2016-2020 56
4.1.2. Weapons manufactured in China comprised the majority of imports to Bangladesh 57
4.1.3. Armored vehicles and ships dominated military hardware imports 58
4.2. Export Market Dynamics 59
4.2.1. The country exported negligible defense goods during 2012-2016 59

5. Industry Dynamics 60
5.1. Five Forces Analysis 60
5.1.1. Bargaining Power of Supplier: High 61
5.1.2. Bargaining Power of Buyer: Low 61
5.1.3. Barrier to Entry: Medium 61
5.1.4. Intensity of Rivalry: Low to High 61
5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: Medium to High 61
5.2. Market Regulation 62
5.2.1. Bangladesh does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country 62
5.2.2. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the defense sector not disclosed by the government 62
5.3. Market Entry Route 63
5.3.1. Budgeting Process 63
5.3.2. Equipment manufacturers enter the market through government-to-government deals 64
5.3.3. Joint venture and license manufacturing agreements provide an attractive market entry route 64
5.4. Key Challenges 65
5.4.1. Limited defense budget deters investors from market entry 65
5.4.2. Corruption hinders growth of the Bangladeshi defense sector 65
5.4.3. Chinese companies dominate the market, creating a challenge for other foreign firms 65

6. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 66
6.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 66
6.2. Key Companies 67
6.2.1. Bangladesh Ordnance Factory: Overview 67
6.2.2. Bangladesh Ordnance Factory: Products and Services 67
6.2.3. Bangladesh Machine Tools Factory (BMTF) Ltd: Overview 68
6.2.4. Bangladesh Machine Tools Factory: Products and Services 68
6.2.5. Leonardo: Overview 69
6.2.6. Leonardo: Products 69
6.2.7. Leonardo: Recent Contract Wins 69
6.2.8. Airbus Helicopters SAS: Overview 70
6.2.9. Airbus Helicopters SAS: Products and Services 70
6.2.10. Airbus Helicopters SAS: Recent Contract Wins 70

7. Business Environment and Country Risk 71
7.1. Economic Performance 71
7.1.1. Nominal GDP per Capita 71
7.1.2. GDP at Current Prices (US$) 72
7.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services (Current LCU Billion) 73
7.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services (Current LCU Billion) 74
7.1.5. Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion) 75
7.1.6. LCU per US$ (period average) 76
7.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion) 77
7.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP) 78
7.1.9. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP (LCU) 79
7.1.10. Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP 80
7.1.11. Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP 81
7.1.12. Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP 82
7.1.13. Service Exports as a Percentage of GDP 83
7.1.14. Foreign Direct Investment, Net (BoP, current US$ billion) 84
7.1.15. Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP 85
7.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion) 86

8. Appendix 87
8.1. About SDI 87
8.2. Disclaimer 87

List of Table

Table 1: Bangladeshi Ground Forces Strength 17
Table 2: Bangladesh Navy Strength 19
Table 3: Bangladesh Air Force Strength 20
Table 4: Bangladeshi - Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs 21
Table 5: Bangladesh - Future Procurement Programs 22
Table 6: Bangladeshi Defense Expenditure (BDT Billion & US$ Billion), 2013-2022 25
Table 7: Bangladeshi GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2013-2022 29
Table 8: Bangladeshi Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2022 31
Table 9: Bangladesh Defense Capital Expenditure (BDT Billion & US$ Billion), 2013-2022 33
Table 10: Bangladeshi Defense Budget Split Between Military Services (Army, Air Force, Navy and Others) (%), 2013-2022 35
Table 11: Bangladeshi Defense Budget in BDT Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2013-2022 37
Table 12: Bangladeshi Defense Budget in US$ Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2013-2022 39
Table 13: Bangladeshi Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2022 41
Table 14: Bangladeshi Homeland Security Expenditure (BDT Billion & US$ Billion), 2013-2022 42
Table 15: Terrorism Index, 2017 46
Table 16: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2013-2017 vs. 2018-2022 49
Table 17: Bangladeshi Budget Formation Timetable 63
Table 18: Competitive Landscape of the Bangladeshi Defense Industry 66
Table 19: Bangladesh Ordnance Factory - Key Products and Services 67
Table 20: Bangladesh Machine Tools Factory - Key Products and Services 68
Table 21: Leonardo - Key Products 69
Table 22: Leonardo - Recent Contracts 69
Table 23: Airbus Helicopters SAS - Key Products and Services 70
Table 24: Airbus Helicopters SAS - Recent Contracts 70

List of Chart

Figure 1: Bangladeshi Defense Expenditure (BDT Billion), 2013-2022 26
Figure 2: Bangladeshi Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 26
Figure 3: Bangladeshi GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2013-2022 30
Figure 4: Bangladeshi Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2022 32
Figure 5: Bangladeshi Defense Capital Expenditure (BDT Billion), 2013-2022 34
Figure 6: Bangladeshi Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 34
Figure 7: Bangladeshi Defense Budget Split Between Army, Navy, Air Force and Others, 2013-2022 36
Figure 8: Bangladeshi Defense Budget in BDT Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2013-2022 38
Figure 9: Bangladeshi Defense Budget in US$ Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2013-2022 40
Figure 10: Bangladeshi Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2022 41
Figure 11: Bangladeshi Homeland Security Expenditure (BDT Billion), 2013-2022 43
Figure 12: Bangladeshi Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 43
Figure 13: Terrorism Heat Map, 2017 45
Figure 14: Terrorism Index, 2017 48
Figure 15: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2013-2017 vs. 2018-2022 50
Figure 16: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2017 and 2022 51
Figure 17: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2017 52
Figure 18: Frigates Market Size (US$ million), 2017 - 2027 53
Figure 19: Corvettes Market Size (US$ million), 2017-2025 54
Figure 20: Bangladeshi Defense Import Trend, 2012-2016 (TIV values) 56
Figure 21: Bangladeshi Defense Import by Country, 2012-2016 (TIV values) 57
Figure 22: Bangladesh Defense Imports by Category (%), 2012-2016 58
Figure 23: Industry Dynamics - Porter’s Five Forces Analysis 60
Figure 24: Bangladeshi GDP Per Capita at Constant Prices (US$), 2015-2025 71
Figure 25: Bangladesh - GDP at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015-2025 72
Figure 26: Bangladeshi Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 73
Figure 27:Bangladeshi Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 74
Figure 28: Bangladeshi Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2005-2013 75
Figure 29: Bangladesh LCU per US$, 2015-2024 76
Figure 30: Bangladeshi Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012 77
Figure 31: Bangladeshi Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP), 2005-2012 78
Figure 32: Bangladeshi Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP (LCU), 2005-2011 79
Figure 33: Bangladesh - Goods Exports as a % of GDP (%), 2005-2014 80
Figure 34: Bangladesh - Goods Imports as a % of GDP (%), 2005-2014 81
Figure 35: Bangladeshi Services Imports as a % of GDP (%), 2005-2014 82
Figure 36: Bangladesh Service Exports as a % of GDP (%), 2005-2014 83
Figure 37: Bangladesh - Foreign Direct Investment, Net (BoP, current US$ billion), 2005-2014 84
Figure 38: Bangladeshi Net Foreign Direct Investment as % of GDP, 2005-2013 85
Figure 39: Bangladeshi Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 86

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