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DAIRY AND NON-DAIRY MILK - US - SEPTEMBER 2018

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Sep 2018

Category :

Dairy Products

No. of Pages : N/A

Milk is characterized by two vastly different markets: the large but declining dairy milk market and the much smaller but fast-growing non-dairy milk market. While dairy milk remains a household staple for most Americans, non-dairy milk is quickly gaining popularity as a more healthful alternative to dairy milk, and innovative non-dairy milks are keeping consumers engaged. Products with strong functional and ethical claims represent areas of opportunity for both milk markets and an overall premiumization of milk could help brands attract younger affluent consumers.

Table of contents
OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Dairy milk declines
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2013-23
Some dairy milk drinkers are making a switch
Figure 2: non-dairy milk associations, by those buying dairy milk the same/less and non-dairy more, June 2018
Too many milks?
The opportunities
Premium products can bring non-dairy consumers back to the dairy market
Figure 3: Milk innovation interest, by milk type buyers, June 2018
iGens drive positive associations around non-dairy milk
Figure 4: Milk associations, dairy and non-dairy milk, health associations, among buyers, by generation June 2018
“Other” milks quickly gain market share
Figure 5: Total US retail market share of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
Non-dairy milk evolves with consumer preferences
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Stark differences in dairy and non-dairy milk sales
Dairy producers struggle to turn a profit
Trendiness of plant-based eating/drinking benefits non-dairy milk
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Dairy milk faces continued losses
Figure 6: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2013-23
Bright future for non-dairy milk
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2013-23
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Diary quickly losing market share in the total milk market
Figure 10: Dairy and non-dairy milk market of total milk market, 2013-23
Figure 11: Dairy milk market share by segment, 2018
Almond milk commands the market but watch for the “others”
Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 13: Total US retail market share of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Cereal falls out of fashion
Figure 14: Total sales and fan chart forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2012-22
Veganism gets easier?
Restaurants cut dairy milk from the menu
Figure 15: Change in incidence and penetration of dairy milk on menus, by segment, Q1 2015 - Q1 2018
Figure 16: Top 15 most common uses of non-dairy milk in other beverages, Q1 2018
MARKET FACTORS
Interest in digestive health detrimental for dairy milk
Increased production lowers dairy milk price
Figure 17: Average price of milk (gallon)*, January 2008-June 2018
Trade wars could cause dairy producers even more stress
The battle for public perception
Figure 18: YouTube video “The Ingredient List: Real Dairy Milk vs. Flavored Almond Milk - Milk Life TV Commercial Ad”
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Growth occurring among smaller milk companies
Dairy needs to look up for growth
New players carve out a space in the non-dairy market
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF DAIRY AND NON-DAIRY MILK
Losses across most dairy milk companies
Figure 19: MULO sales of dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
Smaller non-dairy brands experience strongest growth
Figure 20: MULO sales of non-dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
WHAT’S WORKING?
Lactose-free milks thrive while regular milk falters
Chocolate milk gains popularity as a post-workout beverage
Figure 21: dairy milk uses, by those buying non-dairy milk the same/less and dairy more, June 2018
Non-dairy milk becomes super-functional and cuts the sugar
Figure 22: Non-dairy milk launches, % of launches with select claims, 2014-18*
Figure 23: Non-dairy milk launches, % of launches with low/reduced sugar claims, 2014-18*
Figure 24: Average grams of sugar per 100ml, non-dairy milks, 2014-18*
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
HH declines in dairy milk consumption
Figure 25: average HH number of glasses of dairy milk consumed per day, among dairy milk buyers, 2013-18
The non-dairy milk refrigerator gets crowded
WHAT’S NEXT?
Grass-fed milk creates a premium tier within the dairy milk market
Figure 26: % of dairy milk launches with grass-fed claim, 2014-18
Figure 27: grass-fed milk purchase intent, T2B 5-pt scale, by consumer segmentation
Figure 28: Grass-fed vs non-grass-fed milk perception
Dairy milk due for a packaging update
Meet the new wave of non-dairy milks
Non-dairy milks/brands to watch
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Dairy milk has high purchase incidence but lacks positive associations
Some consumers are dropping dairy milk because of digestion concerns
iGens will drive non-dairy milk forward
Premium functional products are an opportunity for both dairy and non-dairy milks
DAIRY AND NON-DAIRY MILK PURCHASES
Dairy milk is still a HH staple
Figure 29: Dairy milk purchases, June 2018
Young affluent consumers purchase premium dairy milks
Figure 30: Dairy milk purchases, by generation and age/income, June 2018
Almond dominates non-dairy milk market
Figure 31: Non-dairy milk purchases, June 2018
Figure 32: Repertoire analysis, non-dairy milks purchased, June 2018
Parents are key dairy milk buyers
Figure 33: milk purchases, by Millennial parent breaks, June 2018
CHANGE IN MILK PURCHASES AND SWITCHING BEHAVIOR DEEP DIVE
Reported increase in non-dairy milk purchases
Figure 34: Change in milk purchases, dairy and non-dairy milk, June 2018
Dairy milk buyers are making a switch
Figure 35: Changes in non-dairy milk purchases, among those buying dairy milk more/less, June 2018
Figure 36: Changes in dairy milk purchases, among those buying non-dairy milk more/less, June 2018
Why dairy milk drinkers are switching to non-dairy
Figure 37: non-dairy milk associations, by those buying dairy milk the same/less and non-dairy more, June 2018
Why non-dairy milk drinkers are switching to dairy
Figure 38: dairy milk associations, by those buying non-dairy dairy milk the same/less and dairy more, June 2018
Figure 39: dairy milk uses, by those buying non-dairy milk the same/less and dairy more, June 2018
DAIRY AND NON-DAIRY MILK USES
Dairy milk is versatile, but its usage frequency is down
Figure 40: Milk uses, dairy and non-dairy milk, June 2018
iGens use non-dairy milk in a variety of applications
Figure 41: Milk uses, dairy and non-dairy milk, by generation, June 2018
MILK ASSOCIATIONS
Non-dairy milk captures positive associations
Figure 42: Milk associations, dairy and non-dairy milk, among buyers, June 2018
iGens focus on the healthy benefits of non-dairy milk
Figure 43: Milk associations, dairy and non-dairy milk, health associations, among buyers, by generation June 2018
Figure 44: Milk associations, dairy and non-dairy milk, health associations, among buyers, by generation June 2018
MILK IMPORTANT FACTORS
Dairy milk can attract non-dairy buyers via functional, premium claims
Figure 45: Milk important factors, by milk type buyers, June 2018
MILK INNOVATION INTEREST
The dairy milk buyer’s paradox
Figure 46: Milk innovation interest, by milk type buyers, June 2018
Figure 47: Milk innovation interest, by milk type buyers, June 2018
Millennial parents on the lookout for functional milks
Figure 48: Milk innovation interest, by Millennial parent breaks, June 2018
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Mintel Menu Insights
Purchase Intelligence
Mintel Food and Drink Shopper Segmentation
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE MARKET
Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of almond milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of coconut milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of soy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of other non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS
Figure 58: MULO sales of refrigerated dairy milk, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
Figure 59: MULO sales of shelf stable dairy milk, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
Figure 60: MULO sales of almond milk, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
Figure 61: MULO sales of coconut milk, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
Figure 62: MULO sales of soy milk, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
Figure 63: MULO sales of other non-dairy, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER
Milk type buyers’ demographic profiles
Figure 64: Milk type buyers’ demographic profiles, indexed against all consumers
Figure 65: Correspondence analysis, milk and non-dairy milk, usage occasions, June 2018
Figure 66: Correspondence analysis, dairy and non-dairy milk associations, by milk type, June 2018

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