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Dairy and Non-dairy Milk: Spotlight on Non-diary - US - April 2015

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : May 2015

Category :

Non-Alcoholic Drinks

No. of Pages : 121 Pages

Consumers want the healthiest beverage; however, many are not certain what that beverage is. Conflicting reports on health leaves consumers confused, and forcing heated segment competition. To resonate, milk manufacturers must continue to educate consumers.
Table of Content

Scope and Themes

What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations

Executive Summary

The market
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of total milk, at current prices, 2009-19
Segment performance
Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of total milk, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
Key players
Figure 3: MULO sales of total milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Non-dairy milk consumption increases, dairy milk remains flat
Figure 4: Total milk consumption, January 2015
Nutrition, taste, protein top reasons for drinking non-dairy milk
Health pushes dairy milk users to non-dairy milks
Figure 5: Total milk consumption – Any consumption, by reasons for consuming non-dairy milk
What we think

Issues and Insights

Do consumers know the difference between non-dairy milks?
Issues
Insight: Increase consumer education
How can products resonate with consumers?
Issues
Insight: Tap consumer’s personal needs to encourage trial

Trend Application

Trend: Hungry Planet
Trend: Prove It
Trend: Moral Brands

Market Size and Forecast

Key points
Sales and forecast of total milk
Figure 6: Total US sales and forecast of total milk, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of total milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Total category growth will continue
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of total milk, at current prices, 2009-19
Forecast methodology

Market Drivers

California drought, overseas demand, spurs high 2014 milk prices
Figure 9: Average retail milk prices, per gallon, US city average, January 2014-February 2015
Conflicting media reports complicate health perceptions
Positioning as a healthy beverage aids growth
Figure 10: Percent of people aged 20 or older who are healthy weight, overweight, or obese, 2009-12
Race, presence of children impacts milk usage
Figure 11: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
Figure 12: Households with own children. by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2013
Figure 13: Population percent change, by age and race, 2010-20

Segment Performance

Key points
Non-dairy milk sales up 94%, dairy milk up 14%
Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of total milk, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
Segment forecast at current prices
Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of total milk, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
Inflation-adjusted prices forecast dairy milk segment decline
Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of total milk, by segment, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Forecast table output, at inflation-adjusted prices
Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of total milk, by segment, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Whole milk sees largest sales gain in estimated 2014
Figure 18: Total US retail sales of dairy milk, by type, at current prices, 2009-19
Almond milk dominates non-dairy milk
Figure 19: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by type, at current prices, 2009-19

Retail Channels

Key points
Retail channels see strong sales gains
Figure 20: Total US retail sales of total milk, by channel, at current prices, 2009-14
Natural channel sales increase 23%
Figure 21: Natural supermarket sales of total milk, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
Dairy/non-dairy 60/40 split in natural channels
Figure 22: Natural supermarket sales of total milk, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2014
Almond, soy, coconut are top non-dairy milks
Figure 23: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012
Figure 24: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2014
Figure 25: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2014
Organic preferred for dairy milk, non-organic for non-dairy
Figure 26: Natural supermarket sales of total milk, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2014

Leading Companies

Key points
Private label dominates leading companies
Figure 27: MULO sales of total milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Milk category sees 3% growth
Figure 28: MULO sales of total milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014

Brand Share

Flavored, organic dairy milks see growth
Dean Foods declines 4%
Prairie Farms experiences largest gains
Organic milk’s strong demand continues
Soy milk struggles, almond milk sees growth
WhiteWave’s soy milk declines, almond milk grows
Blue Diamond’s Almond Breeze experiences sales gains
Name brand beats private label
Figure 29: Non-dairy milk purchasing habits, by gender and age, January 2015
Dairy milk sales increase 3.2%
Figure 30: MULO sales of dairy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Non-dairy milk brand share declines 4.4%
Figure 31: MULO sales of non-dairy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014

Innovations and Innovators

Dairy milk offers additional nutrition
And pushes protein
Rise of new non-dairy milk types
Cold-press next for non-dairy chilled milk
Premium milk enters market

General Milk Consumption

Key points
Figure 32: Total milk consumption, January 2015
Dairy milk consumption declining
Figure 33: Household milk consumption, average number of glasses consumed in past 30 days
Men seek variety of milk types
Figure 34: Total milk personal consumption, by gender, January 2015
Baby Boomers and older untapped market
Figure 35: Total milk personal consumption, by generation, January 2015
Presence of children increases household consumption
Figure 36: Total milk personal consumption, by presence of children, January 2015
Hispanics, Asians high non-dairy milk users
Figure 37: Total milk personal consumption, by race, January 2015

Non-Dairy Milk – Usage

Non-dairy milk used with foods and other beverages
Figure 38: Non-dairy milk usage, January 2015
Men drink; women use as ingredient
Figure 39: Non-dairy milk usage, by gender, January 2015
Non-dairy milk as exercise aid
Figure 40: Non-dairy milk usage, by generation, January 2015
Households with children drink at more occasions
Figure 41: Non-dairy milk usage, by children in household, January 2015

Non-Dairy Milk – Reasons for Usage

Key points: Nutrition, taste, and protein content most important
Figure 42: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, January 2015
Younger men most likely to drink non-dairy for protein
Figure 43: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, by age and gender, January 2015
Younger women drinking for taste; older women for protein
Figure 44: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, by age and gender, January 2015

For Health – Non-dairy Milk Consumption

Key points
Almond milk drinkers using as exercise aid, meal replacement
Figure 45: Dairy and non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by Non-dairy milk usage, January 2015
Almond milk drinkers look for nutrition, protein, weight loss
Figure 46: Dairy and non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk
Millennials, Gen Xers agree non-dairy milk healthier than dairy milk
Figure 47: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, non-dairy milk is healthier than dairy milk, by generation, January 2015
Millennials, Gen Xers agree non-dairy milk healthier for kids
Figure 48: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, by generation, non-dairy milk is healthier for kids than dairy milk, January 2015
Half of Hispanics believe non-dairy to be healthier for adults than dairy
Figure 49: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, by race, January 2015
Households with children find non-dairy milk healthier than dairy milk
Figure 50: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, by presence of children, January 2015

As a Beverage – Non-dairy Milk Consumption

Key points
Almond milk popular for beverage use, as a snack
Figure 51: Dairy and non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk
Millennials want products that help them lead healthier lives
Figure 52: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, any agree, by generation, January 2015
Households with children less likely to drink as beverage
Figure 53: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, non-dairy milk is good with food, but not by itself, by presence of children, January 2015

Ingredient Usage

Restaurants offer non-dairy milks in familiar forms
Figure 54: Dairy and non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by Non-dairy milk usage, January 2015
Figure 55: Dairy and non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by Non-dairy milk usage, January 2015

Consumption Shift – Dairy to Non-dairy

Nutrition, allergies push dairy milk users to non-dairy milks
Figure 56: Dairy and non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk

Attitudes and Attributes

Key points
Heavy users unaware of nutritional differences between non-dairy milks
Figure 57: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, by gender and age, January 2015
Figure 58: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk innovation, by gender and age, January 2015
Men, Hispanic and Asians overwhelmed by choices
Figure 59: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, I AM OVERWHELMED by the wide selection of non-dairy milks, by gender and age, January 2015
Figure 60: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, I am overwhelmed by the wide selection of non-dairy milks, by race, January 2015
Heavy users see environmental impact of non-dairy
Figure 61: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, by gender and age, January 2015
Figure 62: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, I am concerned about the negative environmental/ecological effect from non-dairy milk production, by race, January 2015

Purchasing Habits

Key points
Figure 63: Non-dairy milk purchasing habits, January 2015
Package offers ways to increase consumption
Figure 64: Non-dairy milk purchasing habits, by gender and age, January 2015
Preference of natural vs organic
Figure 65: Non-dairy milk purchasing habits, by generation, January 2015
Nutrition more important than calories
Figure 66: Non-dairy milk purchasing habits, by gender and age, January 2015
Figure 67: Non-dairy milk purchasing habits, by race, January 2015
Refrigerated non-dairy preferred
Figure 68: Non-dairy milk purchasing habits, by gender and age, January 2015
Figure 69: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, non-dairy milk sold in the refrigerated section is fresher than non-dairy milk sold on store shelves, by generation, January 2015
Figure 70: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk, by generation, January 2015

CHAID analysis – Specialty/Holiday Non-Dairy Flavors

Target for specialty/holiday flavors
Figure 71: Holiday flavors – CHAID – Tree output, January 2015
CHAID table output
Figure 72: Attitudes toward non-dairy milk – CHAID – Table output, January 2015
Methodology

Appendix – Trade Associations

Almond Board of California
American Dairy Products Institute (ADPI)
American Soybean Association (ASA)
International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA)
National Dairy Council (NDC)
Organic Trade Association (OTA)
United Soybean Board (USB)
US Dairy Export Council (USDEC)
Regional dairy councils
State associations

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