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Contrave (Obesity) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

Published By :

GlobalData

Published Date : Oct 2013

Category :

Metabolic Disorders

No. of Pages : 69 Pages


After a more than decade-long dormancy, the obesity market is undergoing a revival with the advent of several novel therapies that will lend considerable visibility to this indication space. This includes the use of combination therapies that simultaneously target multiple pathways and regulate appetite control, as well as novel molecular entities with new mechanisms of action. Due to this growing pipeline of late-stage drugs, this market is expected to experience substantial growth over the next decade. The main drivers of growth will be a large overweight and obese population that need pharmacological intervention, the increasingly frequent prescription of pharmacological therapy as physicians make preemptive efforts to curtail disease progression with earlier treatment, as well as greater responsibility of third party payers for reimbursement and thus allow greater access of medications to patients.

Contrave is an investigational medication being evaluated for weight loss by San Diego, California-based Orexigen Therapeutics in partnership with Takeda Pharmaceuticals in Osaka, Japan. Takeda has already paid a $50m upfront payment to Orexigen and will be eligible to receive up to $1 billion for achieving certain regulatory and sales milestones. Takeda has obtained exclusive marketing rights for the markets in the United States, Canada and Mexico, while Orexigen maintains the right to co-promote Contrave in the US.

Scope

  • Overview of obesity, including epidemiology, etiology, symptoms, diagnosis, pathology and treatment guidelines as well as an overview on the competitive landscape.
  • Detailed information on Contrave including product description, safety and efficacy profiles as well as a SWOT analysis.
  • Sales forecast for Contrave for the top eight countries from 2012 to 2022.
  • Sales information covered for the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, China, Brazil and Canada

Reasons to buy

  • Understand and capitalize by identifying products that are most likely to ensure a robust return
  • Stay ahead of the competition by understanding the changing competitive landscape for obesity.
  • Effectively plan your M&A and partnership strategies by identifying drugs with the most promising sales potential
  • Make more informed business decisions from insightful and in-depth analysis of Contrave performance
  • Obtain sales forecast for Contrave from 2012-2022 in top eight countries (the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, China, Brazil and Canada)
Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 4
1.1 List of Tables 7
1.2 List of Figures 7

2 Introduction 8
2.1 Catalyst 9
2.2 Related Reports 10
2.3 Upcoming Related Reports 11

3 Disease Overview 12
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology 14
3.1.1 Etiology 14
3.1.2 Pathophysiology 15
3.1.3 Prognosis 15
3.1.4 Quality of Life 16
3.2 Symptoms 16

4 Disease Management 17
4.1 Treatment Overview 17

5 Competitive Assessment 23
5.1 Overview 23
5.2 Strategic Competitor Assessment 27

6 Opportunity and Unmet Need 29
6.1 Overview 29
6.2 A Drug with Greater Than 10% Average Weight Loss 30
6.2.1 Unmet Need 30
6.2.2 Gap Analysis 31
6.2.3 Opportunity 32
6.3 A Drug with Increased Safety and Tolerability 32
6.3.1 Unmet Need 32
6.3.2 Gap Analysis 33
6.3.3 Opportunity 33
6.4 Reimbursement by Private and Public Payers 33
6.4.1 Unmet Need 33
6.4.2 Gap Analysis 35
6.4.3 Opportunity 35
6.5 Increased Physician Education 35
6.5.1 Unmet Need 35
6.5.2 Gap Analysis 36
6.5.3 Opportunity 36
6.6 Increased Drug-Treatment Rate 37
6.6.1 Unmet Need 37
6.6.2 Gap Analysis 37
6.6.3 Opportunity 38
6.7 Improved Guidelines 38
6.7.1 Unmet Need 38
6.7.2 Gap Analysis 39
6.7.3 Opportunity 39
6.8 Improved Approach to Diagnosis 39
6.8.1 Unmet Need 39
6.8.2 Gap Analysis 40
6.8.3 Opportunity 40

7 Pipeline Assessment 41
7.1 Overview 41
7.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development 44

8 Contrave 47
8.1 Overview 47
8.2 Efficacy 48
8.3 Safety 49
8.4 Dosing and Formulation 49
8.5 Potential Clinical Positioning 50
8.6 Potential Commercial Positioning 50
8.7 Pricing and Reimbursement 50
8.8 SWOT Analysis 51
8.9 Forecast 51

9 Appendix 53
9.1 Bibliography 53
9.2 Abbreviations 58
9.3 Research Methodology 59
9.4 Forecasting Methodology 59
9.4.1 Percent Drug-Treated Obesity Patients 60
9.4.2 Key Launch Dates 60
9.4.3 Individual Drug Assumptions 61
9.4.4 Generic Erosion 61
9.5 Physicians, Specialists, and Payers Included in This Study 62
9.6 About the Authors 65
9.6.1 Analysts 65
9.6.2 Therapy Director - CVMD and Infectious Disease 66
9.6.3 Director - Medical Devices 66
9.6.4 Global Head of Healthcare 67
9.7 About GlobalData 68
9.8 Disclaimer 68

List of Table


Table 1: Target Pathways in the Treatment of Obesity 15
Table 2: Symptoms of Obesity 16
Table 3: Treatment Guidelines for Obesity 20
Table 4: Most Prescribed Drugs for Obesity by Class in the Global Markets, 2013 21
Table 5: Classification of Overweight and Obesity by BMI and Waist Circumference, and the Associated Disease Risk 22
Table 6: Bariatric Treatment Attributes 26
Table 7: Leading Drug Treatments for Obesity, 2013 27
Table 8: Marketed Obesity Treatment Devices by Type 28
Table 9: Unmet Need and Opportunity in Obesity 30
Table 10: Endpoint Analysis of Clinical Trials Conducted in Obesity, 2013 43
Table 11: Obesity - Phase II-III Pipeline, 2013 44
Table 12: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for Obesity, 2013 46
Table 13: Obesity Treatment Pipeline Devices by Type 46
Table 14: Product Profile - Contrave 48
Table 15: Contrave SWOT Analysis, 2013 51
Table 16: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Contrave, 2012-2022 52
Table 17: Key Launch Dates - Contrave 60

List of Chart


Figure 1: Treatment Algorithm for Obesity 19
Figure 2: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in Obesity, 2012-2022 45

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