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Christmas Shopping Habits - UK - February 2017

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Feb 2017

Category :

Lifestyle

No. of Pages : N/A

It was a great Christmas, better than anyone expected. But the more one looks at the performance, the more one feels that there are warning signs. We think that people are worried about rising prices in 2017 and that they pulled spending forward for that reason. We think they are right to be worried and that real incomes are going to come under pressure as inflation rises. The prospects for Christmas 2017 are rather worse than for the Christmas just gone.

Table of Content

Overview

What you need to know

Executive Summary
The market
Strong growth in the final quarter
Figure 1: Retail sales growth and inflation, 2011-16
Black Friday – Bigger, but disillusion setting in
Figure 2: Retail sales in December as a proportion of the full year, 2010-16
Consumer confidence and the economic outlook
Figure 3: Mintel: Consumer confidence tracker, January 2009-January 2017
Christmas trading performance
Sales in December
Figure 4: Main retail sectors: Year on year growth in December 2016
Non-store sales lead growth
Discounters, convenience and online lead growth in food
Morrisons the best performing of the big four
Online pureplays lead in clothing
M&S enjoys growth in clothing sales
B&M Bargains leads growth for the mixed goods retailers
Department stores boosted by e-commerce
Dixons Carphone leverages stores to deliver strong results
The consumer
Black Friday bigger than last year
Figure 5: Attitudes to buying gifts in the Black Friday/Cyber Monday promotions, Christmas 2016
Gift buying and online
Figure 6: How gifts were bought, Christmas 2016
Almost every group spent more than last year
Figure 7: Amounts spent on Christmas gifts, by broad spending band, Christmas 2016
Figure 8: Spending relative to last Christmas, Christmas 2016
Online bigger than in-store for gift buying
Figure 9: Reasons for buying more gifts in-store, Christmas 2016
Figure 10: Reasons for buying more gifts online, Christmas 2016
Attitudes to gift buying
Figure 11: Attitudes to buying Christmas gifts, Christmas 2016
What we think

Issues and Insights
Pricing – time to restore trust
The facts
The implications
Why was Christmas so strong?
The facts
The implications
Prospects for 2017
The facts
The implications

The Market – What You Need to Know
Strong growth in the final quarter
Black Friday
Consumer confidence and the economic outlook

Christmas 2016
Retail sales up 7.1% in December
Figure 12: Retail sales growth and inflation, 2011-16
Why was Q4 so strong?
Importance of December
Figure 13: Retail sales in December as a proportion of the full year, 2010-16
Black Friday – Past the peak?
Undermining pricing credibility
Signs that interest is waning
Ignoring Black Friday with impunity
Different for electricals
How big was Black Friday in 2016?
Figure 14: November as proportion of all retail sales, 2010-16
The economy
Consumer confidence
Figure 15: Mintel: Consumer confidence tracker, January 2009-January 2017
Real incomes
Figure 16: Inflation and earnings growth, 2012-16
Inflation beginning to move up
Consumer credit – Worrying growth
Figure 17: UK consumer credit (excl mortgages), 2008-16
The housing market stable
Outlook for 2017 – Uncertainty rules
Online
Rapid growth
Figure 18: Online share of all retail sales, 2007-16
Store based vs pure player
Figure 19: Store based and pure player online retailers, share of all online sales, 2009-16
Growth by sector
Figure 20: Growth in online sales, by retail sector, 2016
Online sales by broad sector
Figure 21: Online sales, by type of retailer, 2016
Where next?

Christmas Trading Performance
Sector data
Figure 22: Sector sales, December 2016
Figure 23: Major retail sectors, sales growth December and 4th quarter 2016
Food retailers
Benchmarks
The companies
Figure 24: Food retailers: Christmas performance, 2016
Where next?
Clothing and footwear retailers
Benchmarks
The companies
Figure 25: Clothing retailers: UK Christmas performance, 2016
Where next?
Mixed goods retailers (including department stores)
Benchmarks
The companies
Figure 26: Department stores and other mixed goods retailers: UK Christmas performance, 2016
Where next?
Other sectors – Homewares, home shopping, miscellaneous
Benchmarks
Figure 27: Other stores: December and fourth quarter performance, 2016
The companies
Figure 28: Home and other miscellaneous retailers’ Christmas performance, 2016
What next?

The Consumer – What You Need to Know
Black Friday bigger than last year
Almost every group spent more than last year
Online and in-store used equally…
but more gifts now bought online
Attitudes to gift buying

Black Friday
All Black Friday demand
Figure 29: Buyers of goods during Black Friday promotions, November 2016
Black Friday and electricals
Figure 30: Electrical goods buyers over Black Friday, 2015 and 2016
An online event
Figure 31: Black Friday purchases, in-store and online, November 2016
Attitudes towards buying on Black Friday
Figure 32: Attitudes to Black Friday, December 2016
Reasons for not buying
Black Friday and Christmas gift buying
Number of gift buyers
Attitudes to Black Friday
Figure 33: Attitudes to buying gifts in the Black Friday/Cyber Monday promotions, Christmas 2016

Who Bought Gifts and How They Were Bought
Online vs in-store – Numbers of customers
Figure 34: How gifts were bought, Christmas 2016
Figure 35: Profile of those who shop for gifts, by delivery, Christmas 2016
Online vs in-store by sales
Figure 36: Where most gifts were bought, in-store vs online, Christmas 2016
Device used
Figure 37: Devices used to buy online, Christmas 2016
Figure 38: Number of different devices used for online purchasing, Christmas 2016

Amount Spent on Christmas Gifts
Figure 39: Amounts spent on Christmas gifts, by broad spending band, Christmas 2016

Spending Relative to 2015
Figure 40: Spending relative to last Christmas, Christmas 2016
Figure 41: Spending relative to last year, by amount spent this year, Christmas 2016

Why Do People Buy More Gifts in Stores?
Figure 42: Reasons for buying more gifts in-store, Christmas 2016
Figure 43: Profile of those agreeing with the in-store shopper attitudes, Christmas 2016

Why Do People Buy More Gifts Online?
Convenience is key
Price - perception and reality
Delivery passes of growing importance
Figure 44: Reasons for buying more gifts online, Christmas 2016
Figure 45: Profile of those agreeing with the online shopper attitudes, Christmas 2016

Attitudes to Buying Gifts
Figure 46: Attitudes to buying Christmas gifts, Christmas 2016
Figure 47: Attitudes to buying Christmas gifts, difference between those who agree and those who disagree, Christmas 2016
Prices – Time to restore trust

Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
Financial definitions
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology

List of Table

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