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Children's Footwear - US - March 2017

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Mar 2017

Category :

Baby Products

No. of Pages : N/A

The children’s footwear market is driven largely by replacement purchasing, yet a stable economy could result in more discretionary purchases. It may impact how often parents purchase children’s shoes, when they do so, how many pairs they buy, and if they are willing to spend more for special features. A steady stream of advertising and promotional communication is necessary to keep brands top-of-mind and inform parents about sales, new offerings, service enhancements, and more. The market is set to grow mildly, so competitive pressures are sure to be rampant as retailers and brands all clamber to get a piece of a small pie.

Table of Content

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Sales continue to climb slowly upward
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of children’s footwear, at current prices, 2011-21
Need to try on drives in-store purchasing up
Figure 2: Top five channels and retailers shopped for children’s footwear, October 2016
Casual is still “in”
Figure 3: Top five types of children’s footwear purchased, October 2016
The opportunities
Remain seasonless
Figure 4: Reasons for purchase, by gender, October 2016
Make shoe shopping fun for kids
Figure 5: Important attributes, by gender, October 2016
Keep the brand top of mind
Figure 6: Purchase incentives, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2016
What it means

THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Slow but steady growth anticipated
Birthrate stabilization will help
Let’s “wait and see” what happens

MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
More of the same expected in the coming years
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of children’s footwear, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of children's footwear, at current prices, 2011-21

MARKET FACTORS
Consumer factors
Kid population fueled by the youngest segment
Figure 9: Population of kids, by age group, 2017-22
The most diverse generations
Figure 10: Distribution of kids population, by age and race/Hispanic origin, 2016
Millennial parents hold great influence
Birthrates holding steady
Figure 11: Annual birth and fertility rates, 2006-15
Fewer households with children
Figure 12: Percentage of households, by presence of related children, 2006-16
Changes in family dynamics can impact purchase behaviors
Figure 13: Percentage of parents with children under age 18 in the household, by living arrangement, 2016
Obesity still a major issue, but Americans trying to be healthier
Macroeconomic factors
Family household income improves
Figure 14: Median household income of families with related children, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2004-14
Consumer confidence soars while unemployment falls
Figure 15: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-17
Many consumers in “wait and see” mode postelection
Figure 16: How consumers rate their financial situation, November 2016

KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Athletic shoes and stores on a good run
Abundance of choice means some brands will struggle
Cause marketing a common strategy
If the shoe fits…

WHAT’S WORKING?
Athletic brands/stores faring well
Giving kids a say
Shoes for a cause
In parents’ words
Indifferent
Opinionated

WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Some brands struggle in current retail landscape
Crocs
Stride Rite
Shoes.com
Payless

WHAT’S NEXT?
Shoes are getting fancy
3D Printing
Wearable technology
Going vegan
Sister-sister designs

THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Dads are the real softies
New shoes again?
Specialized shoe stores may have a “foot” up
Advertising serves as strong reminder communication

PURCHASE INCIDENCE
Age more of a factor than gender
Figure 17: Purchase incidence, October 2016
Dads play a bigger role when kids are older
Figure 18: Purchase incidence, by gender, October 2016
Blacks are planning to spend more on footwear for BTS
Figure 19: Purchase incidence, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2016
Average annual spending hovers close to $100
Figure 20: Amount spent on shoes/footwear, by age of child, July 2015-August 2016

TYPES OF FOOTWEAR PURCHASED
Athletic shoes dominate the market
Figure 21: Types of footwear purchased, October 2016
Regional variations offer opportunity for localization of merchandise
Figure 22: Types of footwear purchased, by region, October 2016
Gender drives shoe choice, but will this evolve as gender-neutral apparel becomes more apparent?
Figure 23: Types of footwear purchased, by gender and age of child, October 2016
In their words

REASONS FOR PURCHASE
Replenishment is main reason for purchase
Figure 24: Reasons for purchase, October 2016
Figure 25: Reasons for replacement, by age of child, October 2016
Are dads the real softies?
Figure 26: Reasons for purchase, by gender, October 2016
Seasonality a factor, but not to major degree

RETAILERS SHOPPED
Specialized shoe stores important part of shopping journey
Figure 27: Retailers shopped, October 2016
Figure 28: Retailers shopped, by age of child, October 2016
Kids need to try on shoes; leads to high in-store shopping rates…
but online shoe shopping is gaining ground
Open to buying online
Hesitant about buying online
Resale market less of an opportunity for footwear compared to clothing
Open-minded
Hesitant or against buying pre-owned footwear

IMPORTANT ATTRIBUTES
Style does matter
Figure 29: Important attributes, October 2016
Ancillary features are nice-to-have but not essential
Dads are drawn to these little extras
Figure 30: Select important attributes, by gender, October 2016
It’s worth it to pay more for quality
Figure 31: Attitudes toward footwear, July 2016

PURCHASE INCENTIVES
Advertising helps to keep brands top-of-mind
Figure 32: Purchase incentives – Advertising, October 2016
Coupons still hold ample influence
Figure 33: Purchase incentives – Coupons, October 2016
Influence of advertising and coupons rises with HHI
Figure 34: Purchase incentives – Advertising versus coupons, by household income, October 2016
User reviews prompt one in five consumers to shop
Figure 35: Other purchase incentives, by key demographics, October 2016

APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms

APPENDIX – MARKET
Figure 36: Total US retail sales and forecast of children's footwear, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 37: Population of boys and girls, by age group, 2012-22
Figure 38: Population by age, 2012-22
Figure 39: Population by generation, 2012-22
Figure 40: Annual births and fertility rate, 2003-15
Figure 41: Births and fertility rates, by race and Hispanic origin, 2003-14
Figure 42: Households, by presence and ages of own children, 2016
Figure 43: Percentage of births to unmarried women, 2000-15
Figure 44: Percentage of youth with overweight or obese BMI, by age, gender, and race/Hispanic origin, 2011-12
Figure 45: Median household income, by race/Hispanic origin of householder, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2005-15
Figure 46: Median household income, by type of household, 2015
Figure 47: Living arrangements of children under age 18, by race and Hispanic origin, 2016

APPENDIX – CONSUMER
Shopping influencers
Figure 48: Back-to-school shopping influencers – Parents, October 2016
Additional qualitative research

List of Table

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