This report presents an independent analysis of capitalizing on Long-Term Evolution (LTE) technology for mobile broadband, including potential revenues, strategies and risk. The report begins by presenting an overview of LTE technology, system performance, cost of deployment estimation, an overview of LTE infrastructure/device vendors and a detailed assessment of latest LTE mobile broadband service data plans as of January 2012 among leading LTE operators. The report then presents an in-depth assessment of strategy for LTE operators and device manufacturers for the next 5 years. The report then presents an analysis of LTE revenue and cash flow for the largest LTE operator in the world today - Verizon Wireless, from 2011 till 2021. The analysis is based on a novel simulation model that estimates projected cash flow based on operator and analyst input on LTE subscribers\' growth, ARPU, types of revenues and the cost of capital.
Results of the assessment indicate that incumbent 2G/3G operators such as Verzion Wireless will start seeing profitable LTE revenues in 5 to 7 years after LTE service launch. Verizon Wireless, in particular, will witness the start of its CAPEX recovery in 2018, from large scale CAPEX investments on its LTE footprint which are expected to reach 22 Billion USD. The report concludes by presenting a risk assessment analysis for LTE operators.
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Table of Contents
1 Executive Summary
3 LTE Technology Overview
3.1 Important Network Infrastructure Changes
3.1.1 Evolution History
3.1.2 New system requirements
3.1.3 Network Architecture and Protocols overview
3.2 LTE Spectrum Availability
3.3 LTE Performance Analysis
3.4 Cost of LTE Investment
3.4.1 LTE License
3.4.2 LTE Infrastructure Cost
3.4.3 Network Deployment Costs
3.4.4 Estimation of Total Cost of LTE Deployment
3.5 LTE Terminals
4 Positioning of LTE Technology throughout the World
5 Wireless Operator Business Models
5.1 Principles of MNO Business Models
5.2 Examples of Subscription Plans with LTE and HSPA+
5.2.1 Orange France (HSPA+)
5.2.2 Telia Sweden
5.2.3 Telia Sonera Norway (Nextgentel)
5.2.4 Vodafone Germany
5.2.5 T-Mobile Austria
5.2.6 Verizon wireless U.S.
5.2.7 AT&T U.S.
5.2.8 Telstra Australia
5.2.9 Roger Canada
5.2.10 NTT DoCoMo Japan
6 LTE Infrastructure Vendor Positions
6.2 Ericsson AB
6.3 Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd.
6.4 NEC Corp.
6.5 Nokia Siemens Networks
6.6 ZTE Corporation
7 MNO Service Strategies for Next Five Years
7.1 Data networking
7.2 Voice over IP
7.6 Application store
7.9 Video On Demand and M-TV
7.11 Mobile Advertising
7.13 P2P messaging
7.14 Exploiting Customer Data to Third Parties
8 LTE Handset & Chipset Manufacturer Strategies
9 Diagnostic of LTE Profitability, Project Risk and Growth
9.1 LTE Revenue Estimation 2011-2016 for the Verizon Wireless LTE System
9.2 Estimation of the LTE Cash Flow Generated by the Verizon Wireless LTE System (2011-2016)
9.3 Cannibalization and Sales Erosion Effect on the Verizon Wireless LTE System (2011-2016)
9.4 Effect of Sales Erosion (Cannibalism Effect) on Profitability for Years 2011-2016
9.5 Cash Flow from LTE Project for Years 2011-2021
9.6 Cannibalization and Sales Erosion Effect on the Verizon Wireless LTE System for years 2011-2021
9.1 Break Event Date for Verizon Wireless LTE profitability
10 LTE Risk Assessment
10.1 Justification of LTE Deployment in Mid-term and Risk of 2G/3G System Vulnerability
10.2 Is WiMAX a Threat for LTE Systems
10.3 Cannibalization of LTE Operator Core Revenues by Services provided by OTT Players
10.4 Slow Adoption of LTE Services due to Spectrum Fragmentation
10.5 MVNO Threat and Price War
10.6 Will Signaling be the LTE Bottleneck
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