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Australia - Broadband Market - Overview, Statistics and Forecasts

Published By :

BuddeComm

Published Date : Jul 2013

Category :

Broadband

No. of Pages : 108 Pages

Executive Summary

Post-election migration to the NBN secured

BuddeComm’s annual publication, Australia - Broadband Market - Overview, Statistics and Forecasts, provides a comprehensive overview of the trends and developments in Australia’s fast moving broadband market. It includes surveys by government departments such as the Australian Bureau of Statistics, as also the regulator’s market data reports, operator data to Q1 2013 and market developments to mid-2013.

The report assesses key sectors in the market and provides an analysis of market dynamics, including statistics on infrastructure and data on the major ISPs and key providers. The report analyses both the retail and wholesale broadband service providers and examines key developments in HFC networks as well as emerging DSL technologies such as vectoring VDSL. Statistical tables and charts provide historical data as well as forecasts relating to fixed and mobile broadband usage, the operational performance of ISPs, and a break-down of business broadband market.

Fixed broadband market edging to the high-speed NBN

Australia’s National Broadband Network (NBN) has received widespread support from subscribers. Its implementation to the end of the decade has been secured regardless of political power-play given the Coalition’s acceptance of the infrastructure as a national asset. The progress of the NBN has been slowed by a range of commercial and operational difficulties, but NBN Co is pressing ahead as fast as is practicable, with greater uptake among subscribers as the work proceeds. These developments are bringing faster broadband to Australians, with profound consequences for the country’s economic and social framework. More detailed developments regarding the NBN are discussed in a separate report Australia - The National Broadband Network.

In this report BuddeComm analyses the fixed and mobile broadband market by separate sectors, including the business and residential sectors, the wholesale and retail sectors, and the ADSL and HFC markets. In mid-2013 the ACCC set out the terms and conditions for wholesale DSL services, setting out a pricing structure through a Final Access Determination (FAD) effective to June 2014. Wholesale prices will fall by around 15%, with lower pricing making it easier for ISPs to compete effectively in areas where it has been uneconomic to deploy their own DSL networks.

In the DSL sector there are emerging developments with DSL vectoring which could be utilised in some areas as the copper network transitions to the NBN. Yet vectoring is incompatible with some current regulatory measures and capacity remains related to distance from exchanges. Though the technology has been adopted by a small number of European ISPs it remains a cheaper stop-gap measure to provide faster broadband while fibre networks are being deployed for long term solutions.

Among Internet Service Providers (ISPs) there continues to be some consolidation with takeovers leading to a lower number of players. Further consolidation is expected into 2013/14.

In the business sector we have seen universal adoption of broadband and a growing awareness among companies for services such as video media and cloud computing. Businesses are among the keenest to switch to the NBK where it has become available.

The report’s assessment of the residential broadband market includes analyses of the key drivers behind internet adoption among Australian households, backed by data from market surveys and official statistics covering consumer usage and behavioural patterns.

HFC networks are dominated by the two major operators in Australia, Telstra and Optus. Parts of these networks have been recently upgraded to DOCSIS 3.0, in many instances providing faster broadband capability than competing DSL. Possibilities with DOCSIS 3.1 should improve download speeds further, though with broadband subscribers being migrated to the NBN these new advantages will be geared towards the cable TV sector.

Market highlights:

  • Household internet penetration is among the highest in the region, at more than 80%;
  • Broadband access revenue continues to grow, expected to reach some $3.7 billion for 2013;
  • Cloud-based usage by business increasing as backups and shared data come from faster connections;
  • Data usage is growing rapidly, particularly in the mobile broadband sector as consumers make greater use of broadband-enabled devices;
  • Average connection speeds remain low by international standards, with less than 4% of connections having a capacity above 10Mb/s, compared to 49% in South Korea;
  • The cable broadband subscriber base is expected to grow only 1% in 2013. Despite the advantages of higher data rates than in possible in many areas from DSL;
  • Developments in DOCSIS3.1 technology will help preserve the longevity and capability of HFC networks for cable TV.
This report is essential reading for those needing high level strategic information and objective analysis on the telecom sector in Australia. It provides further information on:

  • Technological and regulatory issues;
  • The impact of the migration to the NBN;
  • Telecoms operators – M&A activity, market developments;
  • Mobile broadband market developments in light of spectrum auctions and WiMAX/LTE deployments;
  • Revenue forecasts;
  • Historical and current subscriber statistics and forecasts.
Table of Contents

1. Fixed Broadband - Statistical Overview
1.1 Overall size of the market
1.1.1 Total broadband subscribers
1.1.2 Subscribers by major providers/technology
1.1.3 Market shares
1.2 Access revenues
1.2.1 Statistical overview
1.2.2 Average Revenue per User (ARPU)
1.3 Other surveys and statistics
1.3.1 Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Survey – update 2012
1.3.2 Statistical information by technology
1.3.3 Broadband speeds
1.3.4 Broadband traffic
1.3.5 Unmet broadband demand in Victoria
1.4 ISP market overview
1.4.1 The market in 2013
1.4.2 Data limiting
1.4.3 ISP market statistics
1.4.4 ISPs contracting but some sectors may expand
1.4.5 Digital Media – Triple play business models
1.4.6 Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) added to naked DSL
1.5 Benchmarking with other countries
1.5.1 Fixed broadband
1.5.2 Wireless broadband

2. DSL Market, Overview, Statistics and Providers
2.1 Brief overview of the NBN
2.1.1 Fibre to match DSL in 2015
2.2 Regulatory environment – analysis
2.2.1 Background
2.2.2 The impact of fibre optic networks on digital subscriber line (DSL) regulation
2.2.3 Unbundling of the local loop (ULL) and line sharing
2.2.4 Wholesale DSL pricing
2.3 DSL infrastructure
2.3.1 Overview
2.3.2 Tool for competitors
2.3.3 DSLAM infrastructure
2.3.4 Street cabinet IP DSLAM2 upgrades (Top Hat)
2.3.5 VDSL developments
2.3.6 VDSL vectoring
2.4 Brief overview of broadband providers market
2.4.1 Market consolidation
2.4.2 The shrinking of ISPs
2.4.3 ISP customer satisfaction
2.4.4 Market share statistics

3. HFC Cable Networks - Overview and Statistics
3.1 Technology
3.1.1 Hybrid fibre coax (HFC)
3.1.2 The DOCSIS standard
3.1.3 The next development for DOCSIS
3.2 Market statistics and estimates
3.3 Austar United Communications Ltd (AUSTAR)
3.3.1 Overview
3.4 BES/e-wire
3.4.1 Overview
3.5 TransACT
3.5.1 Overview
3.6 Telstra
3.6.1 Background information
3.6.2 DOCSIS 3.0 upgraded 
3.7 Optus
3.7.1 Overview
3.7.2 Network DOCSIS 3.0 upgraded 
3.8 Industry analysis
3.8.1 Do we need infrastructure-based competition?
3.8.2 Moving on from the HFC of the past
3.8.3 No long-term future in HFC cable broadband
3.8.4 HFC to be decommissioned as NBN rolls out
3.8.5 From HFC to fibre-to-the-home (FttH)

4. Mobile Broadband - Statistical Overview and Forecasts
4.1 Market overview and analysis
4.1.1 The market in 2013
4.1.2 Uptake in 4G adds to mobile broadband users
4.1.3 Vodafone launches LTE
4.1.4 Mobile data and messaging exceeds voice revenues
4.1.5 Globalgig hotspot local and international data roaming
4.1.6 Capital expenditure builds into the future
4.1.7 Overview of 4G frequency usage
4.1.8 Spectrum reallocations
4.1.9 Hardware drives applications
4.1.10 Mobile broadband to drive structural change
4.1.11 Mobile broadband slowly substitutes fixed services.
4.2 Mobile broadband market statistics
4.2.1 Mobile broadband subscribers
4.2.2 Mobile broadband revenues
4.2.3 Fixed wireless broadband market 
4.3 Forecasts and other developments
4.3.1 Watch out for the next WiFi wave
4.3.2 Mobile broadband boom the killer app FttH
4.3.3 4G fixed-Wireless NBN for regional Australia
4.3.4 Fixed/mobile call market
4.3.5 Revenue forecasts
4.3.6 Overview of mobile broadband worldwide
4.4 Australia - mobile media – premium rate SMS (PSMS) portals and apps

5. Business Market Statistics
5.1 Market trends
5.1.1 Business market overview
5.1.2 ISPs targeting business
5.1.3 Broadbanded companies moving forward
5.1.4 The NBN and the business market
5.1.5 Business need faster speeds to communicate 
5.2 Business market surveys
5.2.1 NBN Business Readiness Survey – 2013
5.2.2 Remote access and operation needed
5.2.3 Small Business Telecommunications Service Use and Experience
5.2.4 Survey reveals moving online benefits businesses – 2013
5.2.5 Telstra Productivity Indicator 2012
5.2.6 Sensis – 2012 e-business report
5.2.7 Optus Future of Business Report
5.3 Business customer expenditure on telecoms
5.3.1 Overall telecom spend – business market
5.3.2 SME market statistics

6. Residential Market Statistics
6.1 Statistical overview residential market – total telecoms
6.2 Internet household statistics
6.2.1 Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) surveys and internet connectivity
6.2.2 Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) surveys
6.3 Trends in the residential market
6.3.1 Problems with broadband technology
6.3.2 Data increases in volume
6.3.3 Mobile broadband – no alternative to fixed line services.
6.3.4 Dial-up internet not hanging up, just yet
6.4 Household use of technology
6.4.1 Computer technologies
6.4.2 Broadband technologies
6.4.3 Internet social media activities
6.5 Other residential market surveys
6.5.1 Stats on children and technology
6.5.2 Internet hours – usage increasing in 2012
6.5.3 New generations survey
6.5.4 Customer service issues and the Telecommunications Industry Ombudsman (TIO)

7. The National Broadband Network
7.1 Introduction and Overview
7.1.1 General overview of the plan
7.1.2 How Australia got its NBN
7.1.3 National interest utility
7.1.4 NBN national infrastructure, not just telecomms
7.1.5 Economic reforms
7.1.6 Where is the user in all of this?
7.1.7 Why wireless broadband is no alternative to FttH
7.2 Surveys, Statistics and Forecasts
7.2.1 Market Surveys
7.2.2 Industry transformation
7.2.3 Penetration Updates and forecasts
7.2.4 The mobile market
7.2.5 The digital economy - trans-sector market
7.2.6 Business market survey
7.2.7 Business models and mergers and acquisitions (M&A)

List of Table

Table 1 – Historical - Total broadband subscribers and annual change – 2000 - 2004
Table 2 – Total broadband subscribers and annual change – 2005 - 2014
Table 3 – Broadband subscribers – total market by technology – 2008 - 2012
Table 4 – Broadband market – overall market share by technology – 2003 - 2013
Table 5 – Broadband access revenues by major provider – 2005 - 2013
Table 6 – Annual change in broadband access revenues by major provider – 2006 - 2013
Table 7 – Market share of broadband access revenues by major provider – 2005 - 2013
Table 8 – Estimated fixed broadband ARPUs – 2006 - 2013
Table 9 – Internet subscribers by access technology – 2008 - 2012
Table 10 – Broadband market share by technology and annual change – 2008 - 2012
Table 11 – Business, government and household internet subscribers – 2007 - 2012
Table 12 – Subscribers’ average speed in Australia versus selected countries – 2010 - 2012
Table 13 – Internet subscribers by download speed – 2009 - 2012
Table 14 – Business, government and household internet subscribers by download speed – 2009 - 2012
Table 15 – Internet subscribers by download speed – 2008 - 2012
Table 16 – Terabytes of data downloaded by access technology (historic) – 2008 - 2009
Table 17 – Annual change in data downloaded by access technology – 2011 - 2012
Table 18 – Terabytes of data downloaded by sector (historic) – 2008 - 2009
Table 19 – Number of ISPs by size in the Australian market – 2008 - 2012
Table 20 – Number of ISPs – 2001 - 2013
Table 21 – Fixed broadband access among internet households – selected countries – 2008 - 2013
Table 22 – Top ten OECD countries by wireless broadband subscriptions – Jun 2012
Table 23 – Wholesale DSL pricing, per month per user – 2008 – 2012
Table 24 – Number of infrastructure providers by number of ADSL-enabled exchanges – 2007 - 2008; 2010 - 2011
Table 25 – Number of ADSL broadband subscribers –2 008 – 2012
Table 26 – Number of DSLAMs by major providers – 2009 - 2012
Table 27 – Total number of DSLAMs – 2006 - 2012
Table 28 – Number of ADSL and ADSL2+-enabled exchanges – 2013
Table 29 – Top Hat enabled exchanges – 2011 - 2013
Table 30 – ISP customer satisfaction ratings of selected ISPs – 2010 - 2011
Table 31 – Broadband DSL retail subscribers by major provider – 2008 - 2012
Table 32 – Total business and residential broadband subscribers – 2006 - 2013
Table 33 – Telstra broadband subscribers by sector – 2007 – 2012
Table 34 – Cable broadband subscribers by major operator and annual change – 2002 - 2013
Table 35 – Cable subscribers versus other broadband technologies – 2009 - 2012
Table 36 – Optus financial data – 2012 - 2013
Table 37 – Optus financial data by sector – 2012 - 2013
Table 38 – Optus on-net broadband subscribers – 2012 - 2013
Table 39 – Wireless broadband subscribers by access type and annual change – 2007 - 2013
Table 40 – Mobile broadband subscribers by mobile network operator – 2007 - 2013
Table 41 – Mobile broadband subscriber growth – 2008 - 2013
Table 42 – Estimated mobile broadband data downloaded in Petabytes – 2007 - 2013; 2015
Table 43 – Estimated mobile broadband revenues and annual change – 2007 - 2013
Table 44 – Mobile broadband monthly ARPU – 2007 - 2013
Table 45 – Fixed wireless broadband subscribers by major operator – 2008 - 2013
Table 46 – WiFi hotspots at the peak in the late 2000s
Table 47 – Forecast mobile broadband and voice revenues – 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 48 – Worldwide mobile broadband subscriptions – 2010 - 2013
Table 49 – OECD mobile broadband subscriptions – 2011- 2012
Table 50 – Top ten OECD countries by wireless broadband subscriptions – 2011 - 2012
Table 51 – Business uptake of broadband by access type – 2010 - 2012
Table 52 – SME online trends – websites versus social media – 2010 - 2012
Table 53 – SME computer equipment ownership trends – 1999 - 2012
Table 54 – Computer software and hardware expenditure – SMEs versus medium businesses – 2001 - 2012
Table 55 – Business trends in internet connections – 1998 - 2012
Table 56 – SMEs internet access methods, by technology – 2010 - 2012
Table 57 – Top 10 current uses of the internet by SMEs – 2010 - 2012
Table 58 – Meeting customer expectations using internet applications – 2011 - 2012; 2015
Table 59 – Expectations of customer e-payments – 2011 - 2012; 2015
Table 60 – Estimated telco product mix of business customer spend – 2013
Table 61 – Estimated business and government market spending – 2013
Table 62 – Providers’ market share and revenue – 2013
Table 63 – Revenue mix – total spend of telecoms – SME market – 2013
Table 64 – Revenue mix – total spend of telecoms – residential market – 2013
Table 65 – Service providers’ market share and revenue in the residential market – 2013
Table 66 – Total households versus internet enabled households – 1999 - 2012
Table 67 – Broadband component of internet enabled households – 2005 - 2012; 2015
Table 68 – Internet access households with children – 2005 - 2009; 2010 - 2011
Table 69 – Internet usage by age group – 2010
Table 70 – Data usage by users – 2008 - 2012
Table 71 – Dial-up and non-dial-up internet subscribers – 2003 - 2012
Table 72 – Computerisation in the home – 2012
Table 73 – Top 5 social networking age groups – 2011 - 2012
Table 74 – Weekly internet usage by age group – 2012
Table 75 – Total new complaints to the TIO – 2006 - 2012
Table 76 – Number of complaints to the TIO – by levels – 2009 - 2012
Table 77 – NBN take up rates first release sites (pre-sales indications)
Table 78 – Broadband uptake* scenario forecasts – 2015; 2020 (household penetration)
Table 79 – Impacts of the NBN on industry output at 2020 (% change)

List of Chart


Chart 1 – Total broadband subscribers and annual change – 2005 - 2014
Chart 2 – Overview of broadband access revenues by major provider – 2005 - 2013
Chart 3 – Overview of annual change in broadband access revenues by major provider – 2006 - 2013
Chart 4 – Overview of market share of broadband access revenues by major provider – 2005 - 2013
Chart 5 – Overview of fixed broadband ARPUs – 2006 - 2013
Chart 6 – Overview of number of ISPs by major technology – 2009 - 2011
Chart 7 – Overview of number of DSLAMs by top 5 providers – 2008 - 2012
Chart 8 – Overview of the top six ISPs with excellent customer service satisfaction ratings – 2009 - 2011
Chart 9 – Overview of total business and residential broadband subscribers – 2006 - 2013
Chart 10 – Overview of cable broadband subscribers by operator and annual change – 2002 - 2013
Chart 11 – Overview of cable subscribers versus other broadband technologies – 2009 – 2012
Chart 12 – Overview of mobile broadband subscribers by mobile network operator – 2007 - 2013
Chart 13 – Overview of estimated mobile broadband data downloaded in petabytes – 2007 - 2013; 2015
Chart 14 – Business uptake of broadband by access type – 2010 – 2012
Chart 15 – Overview of ICT uptake issues by businesses – 2009 - 2012
Chart 16 – Overview of SME computer equipment ownership trends by type – 2004 - 2012
Chart 17 – Overview of SME versus medium-sized business computer expenditure – 2005 - 2012
Chart 18 – Overview of market share by major provider – 2013
Chart 19 – Overview of residential market – revenue and market share by major provider – 2013
Chart 20 – Overview of households with internet access – 2004 - 2012
Chart 21 – Consumer internet usage hours by category – 2006; 2010
Chart 22 – Overview of the decline in dial-up subscriptions – 2004 - 2012
Chart 23 – Overview of new complaints to the TIO – 2006 - 2012
Chart 24 – Overview of consumer and SME complaints by level – 2009 - 2012
Chart 25 – Market share size of NBN trans-sector market – 2020
Chart 26 – NBN services revenue share estimates by market share – 2015
Chart 27 – NBN services revenue share estimates by market share – 2020
Exhibit 1 – HFC network status
Exhibit 2 – Business web activity and online ordering – a snapshot from the ABS – 2013
Exhibit 3 – Overview of the TIO complaint handling process
Exhibit 1- Trans-sector vs. Cross-sector
Exhibit 4 – Economic benefits of broadband – overview of surveys

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