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Asia - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband Forecasts

Published By :

BuddeComm

Published Date : Feb 2013

Category :

Broadband

No. of Pages : 74 Pages


Summary

Asia: whilst fixed-line subscribers in general decline across region, mobile still on growth path

Of Asia’s key market segments, the mobile market still has more room to grow as both mobile voice and data services in various forms continue to expand at a rapid rate all through the region. In the same manner the provision of internet access across the wider region still requires more effort to connect people to the internet and as a consequence there are still plenty of opportunities for growth. Although mobile broadband services are to some extent filling the gap in this market, ultimately there will be a need for fixed broadband services with more bandwidth. Even in the highly developed markets of Asia, the service providers are continuing their efforts to provide faster, more reliable internet services.

As already noted this report provides forecasts for subscriber growth across a range of market segments. The report provides a series of what BuddeComm terms scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect subscriber growth to take place. The associated text describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within the identified band. The actual forecasts are summarised in a series of tables presented with the text.

Our scenario forecasting methodology applies a combination of our own historical information, together with telecommunications sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data. All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc, are quoted in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between the markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

A set of sample tables are presented below, these being the actual scenario forecasts for Bangladesh. The upper and lower scenarios forecasts are presented for the years 2015 and 2020.

Background notes to market forecasts

Mobile markets in Asia have been experiencing strong growth during 2012 and into 2013, despite many countries in the region already having subscriber penetrations of over 150%. Growth across the region in mobile subscribers was in excess of 20% overall in 2011 and was estimated to have been about 15% in 2012 to achieve a regional total of three billion mobile subscribers by year end. This sort of growth is particularly relevant in China and India, with their huge populations. These two countries alone account for 32% and 28% overall market share in the Asia region respectively; or a massive 60% combined. The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008/2009 is the sort of thing that makes forecasting difficult. The GFC certainly caused some caution in mobile markets across the region for a while, mainly in 2009, but; after a pause, the momentum quickly begun to pick up again and effectively returned.

In terms of growth rates, not surprisingly it is the smaller and generally less-developed markets that have been expanding rapidly. More recently, the rate of growth of the mobile segment has clearly been much more subdued than back in 2007, for example; in that year there were seven countries in Asia with annual growth rates in their mobile markets in excess of 100%! By 2010 there were no markets with growth rates in excess of 100%. In the developing economies, quick and easy mobile uptake has for a long time been the preferred, and often the only, option for subscribers, given the low levels of fixed-line deployments.

Intense competition right across the mobile markets of Asia has driven handset prices and airtime tariffs downward, thus opening up mobile services to wider adoption. The rate of adoption of wireless internet has started to rise with the overall increase in mobile penetration together with networks being progressively upgraded to next generation platforms. While 3G licensing and the ongoing launch of 3G services in Asia has certainly been promoting the growth of wireless data services, 3G has also been providing opportunities for both wireless access and content providers in domestic markets. In South Asia, in particular, more people own a mobile phone than a PC, giving the delivery of mobile data services huge potential there.

For almost a decade now, growth in Asia’s fixed voice market has generally been ‘flattening out’ and in some countries the number of subscribers has gone into serious decline. Activity in the fixed voice market has simply been overwhelmed and overshadowed by the frenzied activity in the energetic and expanding mobile market. This declining trend is now clearly evident in the overall statistics for the regional market. By 2012 the total number of fixed services in Asia had dropped to an estimated 510 million, down from 566 million in 2007. Whilst many markets remain stable and some are even continuing to grow, the single biggest factor in the region’s overall status is the performance of China where some 95 million fixed services have disappeared from the national subscriber base since 2006; at the time, there were 370 million fixed-line subscribers in the country. Most significantly, there are no indications of this market recovering in the short to medium term.

Finally it is noted that, whilst there are broad market commonalities across the region, there are nevertheless trends that are specific to each individual country in Asia depending on such factors as the level of technology adoption, level of foreign investment, the presence of government intervention and competition, etc. For the majority of the markets, we have attempted to address some of these issues in the notes presented with the forecasts.
Table of Contents

1. Afghanistan
1.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
1.2 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020
1.3 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020

2. Azerbaijan
2.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
2.2 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020
2.3 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020

3. Bangladesh
3.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
3.2 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
3.3 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020

4. Cambodia
4.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
4.2 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
4.3 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020

5. China
5.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2017
5.2 Forecast: total mobile subscribers – 2017
5.3 Forecast: 3G mobile subscribers – 2017
5.4 Forecast internet users – 2017
5.5 Forecast broadband subscribers – 2017
5.6 Forecast FttX subscribers – 2017
5.7 Cable TV market forecasts – 2015
5.8 Digital cable TV market forecasts – 2015
5.8.1 Forecasting methodology

6. Georgia
6.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
6.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
6.3 Forecasts – internet subscribers – 2015; 2020

7. Hong Kong
7.1 Forecasts – fixed line subscribers – 2017
7.2 Forecasts – total mobile and 3G subscribers – 2017
7.3 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2017

8. India
8.1 Forecasts – fixed-line services – 2015; 2020
8.2 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
8.3 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020

9. Indonesia
9.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
9.2 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020
9.3 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020

10. Japan
10.1 Forecasts – fixed line subscribers – 2018
10.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2017
10.3 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2017
10.4 Forecasts – FttX subscribers – 2017

11. Kazakhstan
11.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
11.2 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020
11.3 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020

12. Kyrgyzstan
12.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
12.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
12.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020

13. Laos
13.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
13.2 Forecasts – mobile services - 2015; 2020
13.3 Forecasts – internet services - 2015; 2020

14. Macau
14.1 Forecast mobile subscribers – 2017

15. Malaysia
15.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
15.2 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
15.3 Forecasts – broadband internet services – 2015; 2020

16. Nepal
16.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
16.2 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
16.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020

17. Pakistan
17.1 Forecast – fixed line market – 2015; 2020
17.2 Forecast – mobile market – 2015; 2020
17.3 Forecasts – Internet market – 2015; 2020

18. Philippines
18.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
18.2 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
18.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020

19. South Korea
19.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2017
19.2 Forecast: Mobile subscribers – 2017
19.3 Forecast broadband subscribers – 2017
19.4 Forecast internet users – 2016

20. Sri Lanka
20.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
20.2 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
20.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020

21. Taiwan
21.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2017
21.2 Forecast total mobile subscribers – 2017
21.3 Forecast 3G mobile subscribers – 2017
21.4 Forecast fixed broadband subscribers – 2017

22. Thailand
22.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
22.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
22.3 Forecasts – internet subscribers – 2015; 2020

23. Uzbekistan
23.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
23.2 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020
23.3 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020

24. Vietnam
24.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
24.2 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
24.3 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020

List of Table


Table 1 – Afghanistan – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 2 – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 3 – Forecast internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 4 – Azerbaijan – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 5 – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 6 – Forecast Internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 7 – Bangladesh – Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 8 – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 9 – Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 10 – Cambodia – Forecast fixed-line growth – 2015; 2020
Table 11 – Forecast mobile subscriber growth – 2015; 2020
Table 12 – Forecast internet subscriber growth – 2015; 2020
Table 13 – China – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration – lower band – 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 14 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration – higher band – 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 15 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast – 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 16 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast – 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 17 – Forecast 3G mobile subscribers and share of mobile market – 2012 - 2013, 2017
Table 18 – Forecast internet users and penetration – lower band: 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 19 – Forecast internet users and penetration – higher band – 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 20 – Forecast broadband subscribers and population penetration – lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 21 – Forecast broadband subscribers and household penetration – higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 22 – Forecast FttX subscribers and penetration – 2010 - 2012, 2017
Table 23 – Forecast cable TV subscribers and household penetration – 2012 - 2013; 2015
Table 24 – Forecast digital cable TV subscribers and percentage of cable TV subscribers – 2012 - 2013; 2015
Table 25 – Georgia – Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 26 – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 27 – Forecast internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 28 – Hong Kong – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - higher band – 2011 - 2013; 2017
Table 29 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - lower band – 2011 - 2013; 2017
Table 30 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast – 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 31 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast – 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 32 – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 33 – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 34 – India – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 35 – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 36 – Forecast internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 37 – Indonesia – Forecast of fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 38 – Forecast of mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 39 – Forecast of Internet subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 40 – Japan – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2013-2014; 2018
Table 41 – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2013-2014; 2018
Table 42 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast – 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 43 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast – 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 44 – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2012-2013; 2017
Table 45 – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2012-2013; 2017
Table 46 – Forecast FttX subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012-2013; 2017
Table 47 – Forecast FttX subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2012-2012; 2017
Table 48 – Kazakhstan – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 49 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 50 – Forecast internet subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 51 – Kyrgyzstan – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 52 – Forecast internet subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 53 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 54 – Laos – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 55 – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 56 – Forecast internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 57 – Macau – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 58 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 59 – Malaysia – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 60 – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 61 – Forecast broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 62 – Nepal – Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 63 – Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 64 – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 65 – Pakistan – Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 66 – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 67 – Forecast internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 68 – Philippines – Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 69 – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 70 – Forecast Internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 71 – South Korea – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 72 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 73 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast – 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 74 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast – 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 75 – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 76 – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 77 – Forecast internet users and penetration - higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 78 – Forecast internet users and penetration - lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 79 – Sri Lanka – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
Table 80 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
Table 81 – Forecast internet subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
Table 82 – Taiwan – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 83 – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 84 – Taiwan - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 85 – Taiwan - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 86 – Taiwan - Forecast 3G mobile subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 87 – Taiwan - Forecast 3G mobile subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 88 – Taiwan - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 89 – Taiwan - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 90 – Thailand – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
Table 91 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate –2015; 2020
Table 92 – Forecast internet subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
Table 93 – Uzbekistan – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 94 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 95 – Forecast internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 96 – Vietnam – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 97 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 98 – Forecast internet subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020

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