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Unsecured Loans to Business in the UK - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2019

Published By :

Timetric

Published Date : Jul 2015

Category :

Banking

No. of Pages : 70 Pages

Synopsis

The main theme throughout the review period was new lending recovering and growing substantially in the latter years - 13.4% thought 2014 - but the outstanding stock of business lending continued to fall due even sharper growth in repayments, which reached 15.3% in 2014 from 2013..

Executive summary

Net lending to small and medium-sized businesses was positive during four of the six months to March 2015, increasing by 1% from December 2014, while net lending to large businesses increased almost by 2% during the three months to March 2015. Gross lending to all businesses has registered growth since the start of 2013, mainly due to an increase in the availability of credit. Outstanding lending declined during 2014, despite increased gross lending, due to a substantial growth in repayments: 15%, 13% and 22% for small, medium-sized and large business respectively.

Interest rates remain at a historic low, and have been falling consistently since the Bank of England cut the central bank rate to 0.5% in 2009. The Bank for England’s quarterly Credit Conditions survey found that lending rates to small businesses remained broadly unchanged during the first quarter of 2015, while respondents indicated that rates had fallen significantly for medium-sized and large businesses.

The government has made several attempts to reinvigorate business lending over the last couple of years, however its projects have failed to have the desired effect. The flagship Funding for Lending scheme (FLS) began slowly and fell short of its initial GBP80 billion target by GBP20 billion in 2012. However, improvements have been made seen since 2014, and a substantial increase in the money lent through the FLS directly led to both outstanding stock for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and new term lending to large business increasing. Project Merlin – the Government’s agreement with the ‘big four’ banks to increase lending to small businesses – fell GBP1.1 billion shy of its initial target.

The rise of the emergency 0.5% bank rate is set to make access to credit more expensive for banks, and subsequently, for businesses. With banks already wary of lending to smaller businesses, this may result in a decline in loan approvals, while businesses themselves are likely to be deterred by the prospect of more expensive loans. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) altered its forecast in March 2015 and anticipates the rise to occur in mid-2016, as opposed to later this year. This gives banks and businesses extra time to prepare for the additional costs while the economy grows.

The industry is dominated by mainstream banks, with the ‘big four’ of Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds, Barclays and HSBC controlling over 80% of the market. Regulations and high costs make it a difficult industry to enter. Therefore, any real competition is sparse, although peer-to-peer lending has risen sharply over the last few years – it almost doubled in 2013 – after offering smaller businesses a viable alternative if bank loans are unavailable or too expensive.

Scope
  • This report provides market analysis, information and insights into the UK business lending industry.
  • It provides a breakdown of the types of business loans in the UK.
  • It analyses drivers and the outlook for the market .
  • It provides information on the main banks in the UK market.
  • It covers news and regulatory developments.
Reasons to buy
  • Gain an understanding of the UK business lending industry
  • Access monthly and annual statistics on every aspect of the market, both in written form and in graphs and tables.
  • Read analysis of the relevant market statistics, detailing what has been happening in the lending to business market for both SMEs and large businesses, why it has been happening, and what to expect in the coming years.
  • Read about the economic factors impacting the market.
  • Read about how individual banks and building societies are affecting the market, in terms of market share and innovation.
Key highlights

The stock of lending to businesses suffered greatly during the financial crash and has been in constant decline since. Strong growth in repayments, due to companies' increased fear of debt has been the main factor, but improving economic conditions make growth likely over the forecast period.

1 Executive Summary

2 Introduction
2.1 What is this Report About?
2.2 Definitions
2.3 Methodology

3 Market Analysis 
3.1 Market Background 
3.2 Market Size
3.2.1 Stock of lending
3.2.2 New term lending
3.2.3 Net lending
3.3 Write-Offs
3.4 Loans by Type
3.4.1 Lending to business by sector
3.4.2 Type of finance
3.4.3 Overdrafts
3.4.4 Syndicated lending
3.4.5 Peer-to-peer lending
3.5 Market Drivers
3.5.1 Funding for Lending Scheme
3.5.2 Funding for Lending Scheme by bank
3.5.3 Interest rates
3.5.4 Cash deposits
3.5.5 Cost and availability of credit
3.5.6 Market innovation
3.6 Market Outlook
3.6.1 New term lending forecasts

4 Economic Backdrop
4.1 Real GDP growth
4.2 Labor Market Conditions
4.3 Central Bank Rate

5 Competitive Landscape
5.1 Market Shares

6 Regulation and Policy
6.1 Regulators
6.1.1 Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA)
6.1.2 Financial Conduct Authority (FCA)
6.1.3 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)
6.1.4 Treasury Committee
6.1.5 Competition and Markets Authority (CMA)
6.2 Recent Changes
6.2.1 Funding for lending scheme
6.2.2 Project Merlin
6.2.3 Quantitative easing
6.2.4 Reserve requirement
6.2.5 British Business Bank Investment Program
6.2.6 Banking Reform Act 2013
6.2.7 RBS SME Independent Review
6.2.8 The Small Business, Enterprise and Employment Bill 2014
6.3 Upcoming Regulations
6.3.1 Basel III

7 Deals

8 News

9 UK Retail Banks
9.1 Barclays Plc – Company Overview
9.1.1 Barclays Plc – profile
9.1.2 Barclays Plc – main competitors
9.1.3 Barclays Plc – board of directors
9.2 HSBC Bank Plc – Company Overview
9.2.1 HSBC Bank Plc – profile
9.2.2 HSBC Bank Plc – main competitors
9.2.3 HSBC Bank Plc – board of directors
9.3 Lloyds Banking Group Plc – Company Overview
9.3.1 Lloyds Banking Group Plc – profile
9.3.2 Lloyds Banking Group Plc – main competitors
9.3.3 Lloyds Banking Group Plc – board of directors
9.4 Santander UK Plc – Company Overview
9.4.1 Santander UK Plc – profile
9.4.2 Santander UK Plc – main competitors
9.4.3 Santander UK Plc – board of directors
9.5 The Royal Bank of Scotland Group – Company Overview
9.5.1 The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc – profile
9.5.2 The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc – main competitors
9.5.3 The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc – board of directors

10 Statistics
10.1 Review Period: 2009–2013
10.1 Forecast Period: 2014–2018

11 Appendix
11.1 Methodology
11.2 Contact Timetric
11.3 About Timetric
11.4 Timetric’s Services
11.5 Disclaimer

List of Table

Table 1: Lending to Business Definitions
Table 2: The UK – Annual New Term Lending to Business (Growth Rates Forecast), 2015–2019
Table 3: The UK – Annual New Term Lending to SMEs (Growth Rates Forecast), 2015–2019
Table 4: The UK – Annual New Term Lending to Large Businesses (Growth Rates Forecast), 2015–2019
Table 5: The UK – Total Stock of Business Lending Forecast, 2015–2019
Table 5: Barclays Plc, Key Facts
Table 6: Barclays Plc, Board of Directors
Table 7: HSBC Bank Plc, Key Facts
Table 8: HSBC Bank Plc, Board of Directors
Table 9: Lloyds Banking Group Plc, Key Facts
Table 10: Lloyds Banking Group Plc, Board of Directors
Table 11: Santander UK Plc, Key Facts
Table 12: Santander UK Plc, Board of Directors
Table 13: The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Key Facts
Table 14: The Royal Bank of Scotland Plc, Board of Directors
Table 15: The UK – Lending to Business Market (GBP Billion), 2009–2013
Table 16: The UK – Lending to Business Market (GBP Billion), 2014–2018

List of Chart

Figure 1: The UK – Make up of Private Sector Businesses (Volume of Employees/GBP Billion), 2014
Figure 2: The UK – Share of Enterprises in the Private Sector (%), 2014
Figure 3: UK Lending to Non-Financial Businesses – Outstanding Balances (GBP Million), 2011−2015
Figure 4: UK Lending to Large Businesses – Outstanding Balances (GBP Million), 2011−2015
Figure 5: The UK – SME Outstanding Loan Stock (GBP Million), 2011−2015
Figure 6: The UK – SME Outstanding Loan Stock, Annualized Growth Rates (%), 2007−2014
Figure 7: The UK – Total New Lending to Businesses (GBP Million), 2011−2015
Figure 8: The UK – New Lending to Large Businesses (GBP Million), 2011−2015
Figure 9: The UK – New Lending to SMEs (GDP Million), 2008−2014
Figure 10: The UK – New Lending to Small and Medium Businesses (GDP Million), 2008−2014
Figure 11: The UK – New Lending to Large Businesses (GDP Million), 2011−2015
Figure 12: The UK – Net Lending to UK Business (GBP Million), 2011–2015
Figure 13: The UK – Net Lending to UK Businesses (GBP Million), 2011–2015
Figure 14: The UK – Net Lending to UK Non-Financial Businesses (GBP Billion), 2004−2013
Figure 15: The UK – SME Gross Lending and Repayments per Working Day (GDP Million), 2008−2009
Figure 16: The UK – Gross Lending and Repayments to SMEs (GBP Million), 2011−2015
Figure 17: The UK – Gross Lending and Repayments to Large Businesses (GBP Million), 2011−2015
Figure 18: The UK – Write-Offs on MFI Lending to PNFCs, Quarterly (GBP Million), 2007–2015
Figure 19: The UK – Write-Offs- Annual Growth Rate for Same Quarter of Previous Year (%), 2007–2015
Figure 20: The UK – Percentage Changes in Stock of Lending (%), 2010−2015
Figure 21: The UK – Gross Lending to Commercial Real Estate (GBP Million), 2011−2015
Figure 22: The UK – Stock of Commercial Real Estate Lending (GBP Million), 2011−2015
Figure 23: The UK – Growth in The Stock of Lending to The Real Estate Sector by UK MFIs (%), 2000−2009
Figure 24: The UK – Net Finance Raised by UK Business (GBP Million), 2007–2015
Figure 25: The UK – Value of Overdrafts Outstanding Small, Medium and Large Businesses (GBP Million), 2011−2015
Figure 26: The UK – Changes in the Value of Overdrafts Outstanding to Small and Medium Businesses (GBP Million), 2011−2014
Figure 27: The UK – Value of Overdrafts Outstanding to Large Businesses (GBP Million), 2011−2015
Figure 28: The UK – Estimates of New Syndicated Lending Facilities Granted to UK Businesses (GBP Billion), 2009−2014
Figure 29: The UK – Peer-to-Peer Lending by Company (GBP Million), 2014
Figure 30: The UK – Peer-to-Peer Quarterly New Lending (GBP Million), 2014−2015
Figure 31: The UK – Peer-to-Peer Quarterly Cumulative Lending, (GBP Million), 2014−2015
Figure 32: The UK – Total Stock of FLS Lending (GBP Million), 2014
Figure 33: The UK – Net Flow of Total FLS Lending (GBP Million), 2014–2015
Figure 34: The UK – Stock of Biggest FLS Business Lenders (GBP Million), 2014
Figure 35: The UK – Breakdown of Lloyds’ FLS Funds (GBP Million), 2014
Figure 36: The UK – Breakdown of Nationwide’s FLS Funds (GBP Million), 2014
Figure 37: The UK – Breakdown of Santander’s FLS Funds (GBP Million), 2014
Figure 38: The UK – Breakdown of RBS’s FLS Funds (GBP Million), 2014
Figure 39: The UK – Net Percentage Balances on Interest Rate Reported Changes (%), 2011−2015
Figure 40: The UK – Average Lending to SME Interest Rate (%), 2011−2015
Figure 41: The UK – Bank of England Official Bank Rate (%), 2004−2015
Figure 42: The UK – CPI Inflation Index (%), 2010−2015
Figure 43: The UK – Cash Deposits Held by SMEs (GBP Million), 2011−2015
Figure 44: The UK – Availability of Credit: Past Three Months (Percentage Points), 2009−2015
Figure 45: The UK – Availability of Credit: Next Three Months (Percentage Points), 2009−2015
Figure 46: The UK – Demand for Credit: Past Three Months (Percentage Points), 2009−2015
Figure 47: The UK – Demand for Credit: Next Three Months (Percentage Points), 2009−2015
Figure 48: The UK – Annual New Term Lending to Businesses Forecast, 2015–2019
Figure 49: The UK – Annual New Term Lending to SMEs Forecast, 2015–2019
Figure 50: The UK – Annual New Term Lending to Large Businesses Forecast, 2015–2019
Figure 51: The UK – Total Stock of Business Lending Forecast, 2015–2019
Figure 52: The UK – Real GDP Growth (%), 2008–2014
Figure 53: The UK – Unemployment and Redundancy Rates (%), 2004–2014
Figure 54: The UK – Average Weekly Earnings (GBP), 2004–2013
Figure 55: The UK – Bank of England Rate (%), 2004–2015
Figure 56: The UK – Volume Shares of Business Loans in England and Wales, 2013
Figure 57: The UK – Banking Regulatory Framework, 2014

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