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Transparent Conductor Markets 2012

NanoMarkets
Published Date » 2012-08-12
No. Of Pages » 216

NanoMarkets believes that the next few years will be a turning point for the transparent conductor (TC) business.  We foresee opportunities for novel TCs where, for the first time, newer materials have unquestionable market advantages over ITO.  This report provides the necessary strategic insight into how TC firms can best generate new business revenues from the rapidly changing business environment in the display and solar panel sectors. It also provides insight into niche applications such as smart windows, BIPV, etc.

Manufacturers of alternative TCs have looked toward the day when flexible displays hit the market, since ITO cannot be used in such displays.  That day is now at hand with the first flexible displays from Samsung hitting the market within a year.  In this report, we examine how the revenue opportunities will play out for alternative TC makers in this exciting new application area.

TC makers can also look to this report for guidance on opportunities in the OLED display and lighting sector.  ITO is not a very effective TC for OLEDs.  In this new report, we show how firms offering TC solutions other than ITO can benefit from the considerable growth expected for OLED industry.

Other high-growth display markets for TCs are also analyzed in this report.  For example, we see transparent displays as having considerable potential for growth for both signage and augmented reality applications. And we expect transparent displays – almost by definition -- to have special requirements for the TCs that they use.  In fact, the report discusses a broader range of opportunities for TCs in the “transparent electronics” sector such as those in smart windows and BIPV glass.
In addition, this report examines opportunities for TCs in more established parts of the display sector.  It takes an in depth look at the use of touch-screen technology which is highly suitable for novel TCs.  However, there are so many TC firms crowding into this sector that a legitimate question is whether this relatively small market is about to become saturated.  This is a question that this report answers.  And it also tackles the thorny issue of whether novel TCs can ever displace ITO in the LCD business.

The comprehensive coverage of this report extends beyond the display sector and includes pinpointing the best prospects for TCs in the solar industry.  Recently, PV opportunities have been constrained by the influx of low-cost c-Si panels from China with limited need for TCs.  In this report, NanoMarkets discusses how the logic of Chinese industrial policy now suggests a revival in the thin-film PV market that will create new opportunities for TCs.

In this report, Chinese industrial policy is also examined for what it will mean for ITO pricing and availability. Whether indium prices really have an impact on the TC market has been a controversial subject and this report cuts to the chase and shows how the ITO supply chain is really likely to evolve going forward in context of what is planned for the Chinese display, PV and indium industries.

Finally, this report analyzes important developments on the TC materials front and it takes a peek at what the next generation of transparent conductors will look like and how these materials will extend addressable markets.  This study also contains detailed eight-year forecasts in volume (square meters) and value terms.  For each of the applications covered there are breakouts of demand for ITO, other TCOs, ITO/TCO inks, carbon nanotube films, silver-based transparent conductors, other nanometallic transparent conductors and conductive polymers.  And there is also a forecast of ITO products by type (sputtering targets, films, coated glass, etc.).  Finally, the strategies of the leading TC firms are also assessed in the context of the latest market developments.
Table of Contents

Executive Summary
E.1 Transparent Conductors:  In Need of a Strategic Reboot?
E.2 Touch-Screen Sensor Markets Reevaluated: Room for Just So Many TC Providers?
E.3  Flexibility:  A Paradigm Change for the Transparent Conductor Industry?
E.3.1 Do Flexible Displays Represent a Growth Market for Alternative Transparent Conductors?
E.4 What the OLED Explosion Means for Transparent Conductor Makers
E.4.1 Transparent Conductors for the OLED Market Explosion
E.5 Will the LCD Industry Ever Open Up to Alternative Transparent Conductors?
E.6 Better Times Ahead for Selling Transparent Conductors into the PV Space
E.7 Firms and Materials to Watch in the Transparent Conductor Space
E.7.1 For ITO Suppliers Looking for Something to Worry About
E.7.2 Silver Linings:  The Rapid Rise of Silver and Metal Meshes
E.7.3 Still Hope for Carbon Nanotubes?
E.7.4 TCs of the Future:  The "Fourth Generation"
E.8 Summary of Eight-Year Market Forecasts For Transparent Conductor Markets
 
Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background to this Report
1.1.1 The Year 2012 Will Be A Quiet One for the ITO Alternative Business
1.1.2 The Arguments Against ITO Should Be Reconsidered
1.1.3 A Better Case for Alternatives to ITO in 2012 and Beyond
1.1.4 OLEDs, Flexibility and the Transformation of the End-User Market for Alternative Transparent Conductors in 2013
1.1.5 The Next Generation of Transparent Conductors:  Coming Soon?
1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report
1.3 Methodology of this Report
1.4 Plan of this Report
 
Chapter Two: Transparent Conductors—New Technology and Market Developments
2.1 Developments in the ITO Market
2.1.1 Status and Evolution of the ITO Supply Chain and ITO Technology
2.1.2 The ITO Business:  Major Players
2.1.3 Traditional Film Deposition Methods and Parameters
2.2 Printed ITO, Sol-Gel, and Other Manufacturing Innovations
2.2.1 ITO Inks:  Perhaps a Brighter Future?
2.3 ITO Film Markets
2.4 Indium and the China Factor
2.4.1 Indium Production Trends
2.4.2 Recent Changes in Chinese Government Policy and its Impact on the Indium Market
2.4.3 Do Indium Prices Really Matter to the ITO Market?
2.4.4 How Market Uncertainties Will Shape the ITO Markets:  A Final Word on China
2.4.5 Recycling, Reclamation and Improved Processing of ITO
2.5 Other Transparent Conducting Oxides:  Past Failures But Future Successes?
2.5.1 Tin Oxide and its Variants
2.5.2 Zinc Oxide and its Variants
2.5.3 More TCOs for the Future?
2.5.4 Are Other TCOs Really a Drop-In Replacement?
2.2.5 Why Would PV Ever Leave TCOs?
2.6 Silver Grids, Coatings and Inks:  Onwards and Upwards
2.6.1 Silver and Other Metallic Coatings
2.6.2 Silver Grids Large and Small
2.6.3 Cambrios and the Others:  Nanosilver and Value-Added
2.7 Are there Opportunities for Copper in the Transparent Conductor Market?
2.8 Carbon Nanotubes:  Slow to Emerge but Could They Win in the End?
2.8.1 The Advantages and Disadvantages of Carbon Nanotubes for  Transparent Conductors
2.8.2 Limiting the Carbon Nanotube: Making Them "Just Conductors"
2.8.3 Derivatization of Carbon Nanotubes
2.8.4 Carbon Nanotube Transparent Conductors and Suppliers
2.8.5 A Coda on the Future of Carbon Nanotube-Based Transparent Conductors
2.9 The Latest on Where Graphene Stands as a Transparent Conductor
2.10 Conductive Polymers as Transparent Conductors
2.10.1 Transparent Conductive Polymers: How Far Can Performance be Pushed?
2.10.2 Cost Trends for PEDOT:PSS
2.10.3 PEDOT Suppliers for Transparent Conductor Applications
2.10.4 Possible Technology Developments in Conductive Polymers
2.11 Other Developments:  Fourth-Generation Transparent Conductors
2.12 Key Points Made in this Chapter
 
Chapter Three: Forecasting Methodology and Assumptions for Markets Analyzed in this Report
3.1 Market Segments Covered in this Report:  Differences from Previous NanoMarkets Reports
3.1.1 Adding Coverage of Transparent Conductors for Flexible and Transparent Electronics
3.1.2 Other Coverage-Related Factors and Reconsideration of Likely Penetration by non-ITO Transparent Conductors
3.2 Forecasting Methodology and Assumptions
3.2.1 Materials Covered in the Forecast
3.2.2 Assumptions About Materials Utilization, Wastage and Yields
3.2.3 Cost Assumptions
3.2.4 General Economic Assumptions
3.2.5 Sources of Data
 
Chapter Four: Display- and Lighting-Related Markets for Transparent Conductors:  Eight-Year Forecasts
4.1 Conventional Liquid Crystal Displays: Stuck On ITO?
4.1.1 Continued Limiting Factors on the Use of Novel Transparent Conductors
4.1.2 How and When non-ITO Transparent Conductor Firms Will Break into the LCD Market
4.1.3 Strategies for non-ITO Transparent Conductor Firms in the LCD Market
4.1.4 Eight-Year Forecasts of Transparent Conductors in the Flat-Panel Display Industry
4.1.5 Notes on Transparent Conductors in Plasma Displays
4.1.6 A Note on the Impact of Transparent Displays on the Transparent Conductor Market
4.2 Touch Screens:  Why Transparent Conductor Firms Love Them
4.2.1 Why the Touch-Screen Sector Has Become So Important to Suppliers of Transparent Conductors
4.2.2 Changes in the Transparent Conductor Customer Base in the Touch-Screen Sensor Industry
4.2.3 Projected-Capacitive Touch Sensors as a Market for Transparent Conductors
4.2.4 The Analog-Resistive Touch Sensors as a Market for Transparent Conductors
4.2.5 Other Touch-Related Opportunities for Transparent Conductors
4.2.6 Eight-Year Forecasts of Transparent Conductors in the Touch-Screen Sensor Industry
4.3 Flexible Electronics Mythologies and Realities: Their Impact on the Transparent Conductor Market
4.3.1 Flexible Displays:  Technology Constraints and Transparent Conductor Choice
4.3.2 Types of Flexible Displays and Likely Market Acceptance:  Implications for Transparent Conductors
4.3.3 Transparent Conductors for Roll-to-Roll Processing
4.4 Transparent Conductors for the New OLED Market
4.4.1 The OLED Industry Leaps Forward
4.4.2 Unique Advantages of OLEDs
4.4.3 How OLEDs Potentially Shrink the TC Market
4.4.4 The Quest to Get Rid of ITO in OLEDs
4.4.5 Transparent Conductors in Active Matrix OLED Displays
4.4.6 OLED Lighting Markets for Transparent Conductors
4.4.7 Eight-Year Forecasts of Transparent Conductors in the OLED Display and Lighting Market
4.5 E-Paper and Transparent Conductors:  A Niche Market for the Alternative Transparent Conductor Business
4.5.1 Varieties of E-Paper Displays and their TC Requirements
4.5.2 Shifts from ITO in the E-Paper Space
4.5.3 Eight-Year Forecasts of Transparent Conductors in the E-Paper Display and Lighting Market
4.6 Key Points Made in this Chapter
 
Chapter Five:  Solar Panel Markets for Transparent Conductors:  Eight-Year Forecasts
5.1 Thin-Film Photovoltaics: Where ITO has Already Met Its Match
5.1.1 The Coming Renaissance for Thin-Film PV:  Implications for the Transparent Conductor Business
5.1.2 Transparent Conductor Usage for the Thin-Film Silicon PV Sector
5.1.3 CdTe PV:  Long-Term Changes in Transparent Conductor Usage
5.1.4 CIGS PV:  A New Hope for Transparent Conductor Usage
5.1.5 Eight-Year Forecasts of Transparent Conductors in the Thin-Film  PV Market
5.2 Organic PV and Dye Sensitized Cells: A Worthwhile Market for Transparent Conductor Suppliers
5.2.1 DSC and Transparent Conductors
5.2.2 Organic PV and Transparent Conductors
5.2.3 Eight-Year Forecasts of Transparent Conductors in the OPV/DSC Market
5.3 BIPV and Transparent Conductors
5.4 Transparent Conductors and Flexible PV
5.5 Key Points Made in this Chapter
 
Chapter Six:  Windows and Other Markets for Transparent Conductors:  Eight-Year Forecasts
6.1 The Importance of Other Markets for Transparent Conductors
6.2 IR and UV Protection Opportunities for Transparent Conductors
6.3 Antistatic Applications for Transparent Conductors
6.3.1 Antistatic Markets in the Building Products Industry
6.3.2 ESD Applications for the Electronics Market
6.3.3 Tin Oxide as an Antistatic Coating
6.3.4 Zinc Oxide as an Antistatic Coating
6.3.5 Eight-Year Forecast of Transparent Conductors for Antistatic Coatings
6.4  Transparent Conductors in EMI/RFI Shielding
6.4.1 Eight-Year Forecast of Transparent Conductors for EMI Shielding
6.5 Smart Windows Applications for Transparent Conductors
6.5.1 Low-E Windows
6.5.2 Solar Control Films
6.5.3 Electrochromic (EC) and Suspended Particle Device (SPD) Technologies
6.5.4 PDLC Active On-Demand Smart Windows
6.5.5 Thermochromic Smart Glass
6.5.6 Self-Cleaning Windows
6.5.7 Eight-Year Forecast of Transparent Conductors for Smart Windows
6.6 Yet Other Markets for Transparent Conductors
6.7 Key Points Made in this Chapter
 
Chapter Seven:  Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of Transparent Conductor Markets
7.1 Eight-Year Forecasts of ITO and Other Transparent Conductors by  Material Type
7.1.1 Eight-Year Forecast of ITO Markets
7.7.2 Eight-Year Forecast of non-ITO TCO Markets
7.7.3 Eight-Year Forecast of ITO/TCO Ink Markets
7.7.4 Eight-Year Forecast of Carbon Nanotube-based Transparent Conductor Markets
7.7.5 Eight-Year Forecast of Silver-based Transparent Conductors Film Markets
7.7.6 Eight-Year Forecast of Other Metallic Transparent Conductor Markets
7.7.7 Eight-Year Forecast of Transparent Conductive Polymer Markets
7.7.8 Eight-Year Forecast of Other Transparent Conductor Materials Markets
7.8 Summary of Market Forecasts by Material and Application Type
7.8.1 Summary by Type of Material
7.8.2 Summary by Applications
7.9 Summary of ITO Forecasts by Type of ITO Product: Targets, Film and  Coated Glass
7.10 Final Thoughts on Alternative Scenarios for Transparent Conductor Materials

List of Tables


Exhibit E-1: Addressable Markets for non-ITO Transparent Conductors
Exhibit E-2: Potential Opportunities for non-ITO Transparent Conductors in the Flexible Display Market
Exhibit E-3: Long-Term Issues that ITO Faces in the OLED Market
Exhibit E-4: PV Trends and their Impact on the Transparent Conductor Market
Exhibit E-5: Transparency of Transparent Conductive Material Types
Exhibit E-6: Sheet Resistance of Transparent Conductive Material Types
Exhibit E-7: Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of Transparent Conductive Materials by Material Type ($ Millions)
Exhibit E-8: Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of Transparent Conductive Materials by Application ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-1: ITO Products in Current Use
Exhibit 2-2: Refinery Production of Indium
Exhibit 2-3: Selected Major Indium Firms in China
Exhibit 2-4: Indium Price and Production Trends (Values in Metric Tons Unless Noted)
Exhibit 2-5: ITO in the Display BOM:  A Thought Experiment ($, except final line)
Exhibit 2-6: Markets for FTO Coated Functional Glass by Utilization
Exhibit 2-7: Selected Projects and Collaborations in the CNT TC Space
Exhibit 2-8: Agfa's Conductive ORGACON Coatings
Exhibit 2-9: Heraeus' Clevios Material Properties
Exhibit 2-10: PEDOS Properties
Exhibit 3-1: NanoMarkets' Perspective and Expectations of Penetration of Selected Transparent Conductor Materials
Exhibit 3-2: Cost of Transparent Conductive Material Types: NanoMarkets' Estimates for 2012
Exhibit 4-1: Important Requirements for Transparent Conductors Used for LCD Displays
Exhibit 4-2: Forecast of Transparent Conductive Materials Demand in Flat-Panel Displays (LCD and PDP)
Exhibit 4-3: Forecast of Transparent Conductive Materials by Type in Flat-Panel Displays
Exhibit 4-4: Important Parameters for Transparent Conductors Used for Plasma Displays
Exhibit 4-5: A Provisional Roadmap for Transparent Electronics
Exhibit 4-6: Important Parameters for Transparent Conductors Used for Touch-Screen Sensors
Exhibit 4-7: Why the Touch Sensor Business is Attractive for Transparent Conductor Makers
Exhibit 4-8: Touch-Screen Technologies by Size and Multi-Touch Functionality
Exhibit 4-9: Forecast of Transparent Conductive Materials Requirements in Touch-Screen  Display Sensors
Exhibit 4-10: Forecast of Transparent Conductive Materials by Type in Touch-Screen Display Sensors
Exhibit 4-11: Flexibility of Transparent Conductive Material Types
Exhibit 4-12: Selected Flexible Display Frontplane Technologies
Exhibit 4-13: Important Parameters for Transparent Conductors Used for OLED Display Electrodes
Exhibit 4-14: Important Requirements for Transparent Conductors Used for OLED Lighting Electrodes
Exhibit 4-15: OLED Lighting Manufacturing Facilities by Selected Companies 135
Exhibit 4-16: Forecast of Transparent Conductive Materials Requirements in OLED Displays (Excludes OLED Lighting)
Exhibit 4-17: Forecast of Transparent Conductive Materials Requirements in OLED Displays (Excludes OLED Lighting)
Exhibit 4-18: Forecast of Transparent Conductive Materials Requirements in OLED Lighting
Exhibit 4-19: Forecast of Transparent Conductive Materials by Type in OLED Lighting
Exhibit 4-20: Important R for Transparent Conductors Used for EPDs
Exhibit 4-21: Forecast of Transparent Conductive Materials Demand in E-Paper Displays
Exhibit 4-22: Forecast of Transparent Conductive Materials by Type in E-Paper Displays
Exhibit 5-1: A Profile of the Thin-Film PV Industry Considered by Type of Absorber Layer
Exhibit 5-2: Important Parameters for Transparent Conductors Used for PV Electrodes
Exhibit 5-3: CIGS PV Competitors in 2011
Exhibit 5-4: Known TCOs In Commercial CIGS/CIS
Exhibit 5-5: Forecast of Transparent Conductive Materials Requirements in Thin-Film and Organic Photovoltaics
Exhibit 5-6: Forecast of Transparent Conductive Materials by Type in Thin-Film and Organic PV
Exhibit 5-7: Forecast of Transparent Conductive Materials Requirements in OPV/DSC
Exhibit 5-8: Forecast of Transparent Conductive Materials by Type in OPV/DSC
Exhibit 6-1: Forecast of Transparent Conductive Materials by Type in Antistatic Coatings
Exhibit 6-2: Forecast of Transparent Conductive Materials by Type in Electromagnetic Shielding
Exhibit 6-3: Total High Quality Float Glass Market for Thermochromic, Photochromic Low-E Windows (Millions of m2)
Exhibit 7-1: Summary of Forecast of ITO by Application ($ Millions, except for final line)
Exhibit 7-2: Summary of Forecast of Non-ITO TCOs by Application ($ Millions, except for final line)
Exhibit 7-3: Summary of Forecast of ITO and TCO Inks by Application  ($ Millions, except for final line)
Exhibit 7-4: Summary of Forecast of Carbon Nanotube Films by Application  ($ Millions, except for final line)
Exhibit 7-5: Summary of Forecast of  Silver Films and Grids by Application ($ Millions, except for final line)
Exhibit 7-6: Summary of Forecast of Other Metallic Films by Application ($ Millions, except for final line)
Exhibit 7-7: Summary of Forecast of Transparent Conductive Polymers by Application ($ Millions, except for final line)
Exhibit 7-8: Summary of Forecast of Other TCs by Application ($ Millions, except for final line)
Exhibit 7-9: Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of Transparent Conductive Materials
Exhibit 7-10: Summary of Forecasts of  TC Market by Application ($ Millions, except for final line)
Exhibit 7-11: ITO Market by End User Product/Process  ($ Millions)

List of Figures

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