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Russia: Grain Market - January 2013

Published By :

IndexBox Marketing Ltd

Published Date : Jan 2013

Category :

Agriculture

No. of Pages : 159 Pages


The purpose of the report is to describe the state of the grain market, to present actual information about the volumes of production, exports, imports, consumption and the state of the market, the changes that took place in 2012, and also, to build a forecast for the development of the industry in the medium term until 2017.

The last three years, the situation on the grain market in Russia was unstable. The maximum gross grain harvest was reached in 2011 and amounted to 91,177 tons. However, in 2012, as a result of crop failures in all parts of the Russian Federation, the gross grain yield decreased by 25% in real terms, compared to 2011.

The largest share in the gross harvest of grains in 2012 belonged to wheat - 55.5% in real terms. It was followed by winter and spring barley - 20.5% in real terms. The third place was taken by maize - 11.8%. Following in a decreasing order, are the harvests of: oats, rye, rice, buckwheat, and millet.
Table of Contents

1. Executive summary

2. Research design

3. Classification of grain

4. Sown area in Russia

5. Characteristics of the Russian grain market 
5.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian grain market in 2008 – 2012. Forecast for 2013 - 2017 
5.2. Structure of the grain market: production, exports, imports, consumption 

6. Characteristics of the domestic production of grain in 2008 - 2012 
6.1. Volume and dynamics of the production of grain in 2008 - 2012 
6.2. Structure of production of grain by types
6.3. Structure of production of grain by regions of the Russian Federation 
6.4. Main manufacturers of grain and their corresponding shares 

7. Characteristics of grain prices 
7.1. Dynamics of manufacturers’ prices of grain 
7.2. Comparison of manufacturers’ prices of grain by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation 
7.3. Prices of obtaining grain 

8. Characteristics of the imports of grain to the Russian market 
8.1. Volume and dynamics of the imports of grain 
8.2. Structure of the imports of grain to the Russian market 
8.3. Manufacturing countries, leading suppliers of the imported grain on the territory of the Russian Federation 
8.4. Foreign companies, manufacturers of the grain, imported to the Russian Federation 
8.5. Recipient companies of the grain, imported to the Russian Federation 
8.6. Recipient regions of the imports of grain 

9. Characteristics of the Russian exports of grain 
9.1. Volume and dynamics of the exports of grain 
9.2. Structure of the exports by type of grain 
9.3. Recipient countries of the Russian exports of grain 
9.4. Manufacturing companies, supplying grain for exports
9.5. Sending regions of the Russian exports of grain 

10. Factors, influencing the development of the grain market in Russia 
10.1. State of the agricultural industry 
10.2. Level of well being of the population 
10.3. Government regulations on the grain market 

11. Characteristics of the consumption of grain 
11.1. Volume and dynamics of the consumption of grain in 2008 – 2012. Forecast for 2013 - 2017 
11.2. Volume and structure of the consumption of grain by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in 2008 -2012. Forecast for 2013 - 2017 
11.3. Balance between production and consumption of grain 

12. Forecast for the development of the grain market in 2013 - 2017 
12.1. Preconditions for the development of the Russian economy 
12.2. Scenarios for development of the world economy 
12.3. Scenarios for development of the grain market 

Appendix 1. Gross harvest of grain by types 

Appendix 2. Government regulations in the industry 

Appendix 3. Profiles of the leading manufacturers 
  • LLC “Efko-Kaskad” 
  • OJSC “Agroobedinenue “Kuban” 
  • CJSC “Krasnoyarsk gain company” 
  • LLC “Agrofirm “Zolotaya Niva” 
  • OJSC “APO “Avrora” 
  • LLC “Agrosoiuz Yug Rusi” 
  • LLC “Aston - Agro” 
  • LLC “Agrofirm “Razgulyai” 
  • CJSC “Rusagro – Aidat”

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List of Table


Table 1. Average chemical composition of the main types of grain (in grams / 100 grams of grain) 
Table 2. Sown areas of grains by types in 2006 - 2012, in thousands of hectares 
Table 3. Volume and dynamics of the grain market in 2008 - 2012 and forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons (base scenario) 
Table 4. Gross harvest of grain in Russia in 2006 - 2012 by types, in thousands of tons 
Table 5. Leads on the grain market in 2012 and their volumes of production in value terms
Table 6. Average manufacturers’ prices of grain in the Russian Federation in January 2008 – November 2012 
Table 7. Sales price of grain in the period 1 November - 15 December 2012 
Table 8. Price of obtaining grain in the period 1 November - 15 December 2012, in RUR per 1 kg 
Table 9. Dynamics of the imports of grain in January - July 2012, in thousands of tons 
Table 10. Dynamics of the imports of grain in January - July 2012, in millions of USD 
Table 11. Structure of the imports of grain to the Russian market in January - July 2012 
Table 12. Volume of the imports of grain by manufacturing countries in January - July 2012, in thousands of tons 
Table 13. Volume of the imports of grain by manufacturing countries in January - July 2012, in millions of USD 
Table 14. Volume of the imports of grain by manufacturing companies in January - July 2012, in thousands of tons
Table 15. Volume of the imports of grain by manufacturing companies in January - July 2012, in millions of USD 
Table 16. Volume of the imports of grain by recipient companies in January - July 2012, in thousands of tons 
Table 17. Volume of the imports of grain by recipient companies in January - July 2012, in millions of USD 
Table 18. Volume of the imports of grain by recipient regions in January - July 2012, in thousands of tons 
Table 19. Volume of the imports of grain by recipient regions in January - July 2012, in millions of USD 
Table 20. Dynamics of the Russian exports of grain in January - July 2012, in thousands of tons 
Table 21. Dynamics of the Russian exports of grain in January - July 2012, in millions of USD 
Table 22. Structure of the exports of grain by types in January - July 2012 
Table 23. Volume of the exports of grain by recipient countries in January - July 2012, in thousands of tons 
Table 24. Volume of the exports of grain by recipient countries in January - July 2012, in millions of USD 
Table 25. Volume of the exports of grain by manufacturing companies in January - July 2012, in thousands of tons 
Table 26. Volume of the exports of grain by manufacturing companies in January - July 2011, in millions of USD 
Table 27. Volume of the exports of grain by sending regions in January - July 2012, in thousands of tons 
Table 28. Volume of the exports of grain by sending regions in January - July 2012, in millions of USD 
Table 29. Real disposable monetary income in the Russian Federation in January 2008 - February 2012 
Table 30. Dynamics of the disposable income of households (per 100 people), in thousands of RUR in the Russian Federation in 2005 - 2010 
Table 31. Average monetary income per capita in the Russian Federation in 2005 - 2011, in RUR per month 
Table 32. Deviation from the average monetary income per capita by Federal Districts from the average for Russia in 2005 - 2010 
Table 33. Differentiation of income in 2005 - 2011 
Table 34. Structure of the disposable income of households of different social economic categories in 2010, in %, to the total 
Table 35. Distribution of the population in Russia by level of income in 2007 - 2010, in %, to the total 
Table 36. Consumption of grain in 2008 – 2012 and forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons 
Table 37. Forecast for the balance between supply and demand on the grain market in 2013 - 2017, in thousands of tons 
Table 38. Gross harvest of millet in Russia by regions 
Table 39. Gross harvest of oats in Russia by regions 
Table 40. Gross harvest of buchwheat in Russia by regions 
Table 41. Gross harvest of rice in Russia by regions 
Table 42. Gross harvest of wheat in Russia by regions 
Table 43. Gross harvest of rye in Russia by regions 
Table 44. Gross harvest of barley in Russia by regions 
Table 45. Passport of the Government program for development of agriculture 
Table 46. Passport of the sub-program “Development of the sub-industries crop production, processing and sales of different types of crops

List of Chart


Fig. 1. Sown areas of grains in 2006 - 2012, in thousands of hectares 
Fig. 2. Structure of sown areas by types of grains in 2012, in hectares 
Fig. 3. Volume of supply on the grain market in 2008 - 2012 and forecast for 2013 - 2017, in thousands of tons (base scenario) 
Fig. 4. Volume of supply on the grain market in 2008 - 2012 and forecast for 2013 - 2017, in billions of RUR (base scenario, forecast in manufacturers’ prices as of November 2012) 
Fig. 5. Dynamics and structure of the grain market in 2008 - 2012 and forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons (base scenario) 
Fig. 6. Structure of the grain market by origin in physical terms in 2011 - 2012 
Fig. 7. Gross harvest of grain in Russia in 2006 - 2012, in thousands of tons 
Fig. 8. Structure of the gross harvest of grain by types in physical terms in 2012 
Fig. 9. Index of the average manufacturers’ prices of grain in the Russian Federation in 2011 
Fig. 10. Index of the average manufacturers’ prices of grain in the Russian Federation in January – November 2012 
Fig. 11. Dynamics of the average manufacturers’ prices of grain in the Russian Federation in January 2011 – November 2012, deviation in %, to the analogical period of the previous year 
Fig. 12. Comparison of the average manufacturers’ prices of grain by Federal Districts in November 2012 
Fig. 13. Dynamics of the imports of grain in January - July 2012, in thousands of tons 
Fig. 14. Dynamics of the imports of grain in January - July 2012, in millions of USD 
Fig. 15. Structure of the imports of grain by manufacturing countries in January - July 2012, in physical terms 
Fig. 16. Structure of the imports of grain by manufacturing countries in January - July 2012 in value terms 
Fig. 17. Structure of the imports of grain by manufacturing companies in January - July 2012, in physical terms 
Fig. 18. Structure of the imports of grain by manufacturing companies in January - July 2012, in value terms 
Fig. 19. Structure of the imports of grain by recipient companies in January - July 2012, in physical terms 
Fig. 20. Structure of the imports of grain by recipient companies in January - July 2012, in value terms 
Fig. 21. Structure of the imports of grain by recipient regions in January - July 2012, in physical terms 
Fig. 22. Structure of the imports of grain by recipient regions in January - July 2012, in value terms 
Fig. 23. Dynamics of the Russian exports of grain in January - July 2012, in thousands of tons 
Fig. 24. Dynamics of the Russian exports of grain in January - July 2012, in millions of USD 
Fig. 25. Structure of the exports of grain by manufacturing countries in January - July 2012, in physical terms 
Fig. 26. Structure of the exports of grain by recipient countries in January - July 2012, in value terms 
Fig. 27. Structure of the exports of grain by sending regions in January - July 2012, in physical terms 
Fig. 28. Structure of the exports of grain by sending regions in January - July 2012, in value terms 
Fig. 29. Quarterly dynamics of the real disposable income of the population in the Russian Federation, in %, to the corresponding period of the previous year of
Fig. 30. Dynamics of the nominal and real income of the population of the Russian Federation in 2005 - 2011 
Fig. 31. Average deviation from the per capita income by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation from the Russian average in 2005 - 2010 
Fig. 32. Distribution of the total volume of monetary income of the population in 2011 by groups 
Fig. 33. Structure of the population of the Russian Federation by level of income in 2010, in %, to the total 
Fig. 34. Dynamics of consumption of grain in the Russian Federation in 2008 – 2017F, in thousands of tons (base scenario) 
Fig. 35. Dynamics of consumption of grain in the Russian Federation in 2008 - 2017F, in billions of RUR (base scenario, forecast in manufacturers’ prices as of November 2012) 
Fig. 36. Consumption of grain by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in 2008 - 2012 and forecast until 2017 in physical terms 
Fig. 37. Forecast of the balance between supply and demand on the grain market in Russia in 2008 - 2017, in thousands of tons 
Fig. 38. Base scenario for the development of the grain market in 2011 - 2017, in thousands of tons 
Fig. 39. Base scenario for the development of the grain market in 2011 - 2017, in billions of RUR (forecast in manufacturers’ prices as of November 2012) 
Fig. 40. Conservative scenario for the development of the grain market in 2011 - 2017, in thousands of tons 
Fig. 41. Conservative scenario for the development of the grain market in 2011 - 2017, in billions of RUR (forecast in manufacturers’ prices as of November 2012) 
Fig. 42. Pessimistic scenario for the development of the grain market in 2011 - 2017, in thousands of tons 
Fig. 43. Pessimistic scenario for the development of the grain market in 2011 - 2017, in billions of RUR (forecast in manufacturers’ prices as of November 2012)

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