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RFID Forecasts, Players and Opportunities 2014-2024

IDTechEx
Published Date » 2014-03-01
No. Of Pages » 174

This report provides the key data and analysis of extensive research including interviews with RFID adopters and solution providers in the various applicational RFID markets, giving an unprecedented level of insight into the total RFID industry and what is really happening.
 
IDTechEx find that in 2013, the total RFID market is worth $7.88 billion, up from $6.98 billion in 2012, and growing to $9.2 billion in 2014. This includes tags, readers and software/services for RFID cards, labels, fobs and all other form factors. IDTechEx forecast that to rise to $30.24 billion in 2024.
 
In retail, RFID is seeing rapid growth for apparel tagging - that application alone demands 2.25 billion RFID labels in 2013. RFID in the form of tickets used for transit will demand 600 million tags in 2013. The tagging of animals (such as pigs, sheep and pets) is now substantial as it becomes a legal requirement in many more territories, with 375 million tags being used for this sector in 2013. This is happening in regions such as China and Australasia. In total, 5.9 billion tags will be sold in 2013 versus 4.8 billion in 2012. Most of that growth is from passive UHF RFID labels, with UHF tag sales overtaking HF and LF tag sales by volume in 2012. However, in 2013 UHF tag sales by value will only be 11% of the value of HF tag sales.

This comprehensive report from IDTechEx gives the complete picture covering passive RFID, battery assisted passive, active RFID, Real Time Locating Systems (RTLS) and chipless RFID. It provides detailed forecasts and depth unmatched by any other.
Market analysis by a huge number of parameters

Using new, unique information researched globally by IDTechEx technical experts, we analyze the RFID market in many different ways. Full analysis by each market is given in great detail including in-depth historic data by application type from 2005 year by year to 2020 and with a 2024 outlook. For passive RFID, forecasts are provided separately for the following application areas. For each we provide the number of tags, average sales price and total value of tags.
 
Passive UHF market data segments - 10 year forecast

  • Retail apparel and footwear
  • Retail-other
  • Logistics, conveyances, roll cages
  • Asset management/inventory
  • Medical/health care
  • Air baggage and cargo
  • Access control/ticketing
  • Embedded
  • People
  • Other

Passive HF RFID market data segments - 10 year forecast

  • Contactless cards/fobs
  • Smart tickets
  • Books
  • Medical
  • Assets/tools
  • Passports
  • People
  • NFC applications
  • Other

Passive LF market data segments - 10 year forecast

  • Livestock and pets
  • Access control
  • Vehicle immobilizers
  • Medical
  • People
  • Other

In addition, ten year forecasts are provided for battery assisted passive and active RFID and RTLS in the following applications:

  • Pharma/Healthcare
  • Cold retail supply chain
  • Consumer goods
  • Postal
  • Manufacturing parts, tools
  • Archiving (samples)
  • Military
  • Retail CPG Pallet/case
  • Shelf Edge Labels
  • Conveyances/Rollcages/ULD/Totes
  • Vehicles
  • People (excluding other sectors)
  • Car clickers
  • Other tag applications

Additionally, the report provides units, asp and total value for RFID readers as follows:

  • UHF Fixed portal
  • UHF Embedded and handheld
  • HF and LF Hand held, fixed, embedded
  • LF Vehicle
  • NFC Cellphone
 
The research conducted by IDTechEx ultimately provides ten year forecasts by application area including tags, readers, software and services for the following markets:

  • Retail
  • Healthcare and medical
  • Passenger transport/automotive
  • Land, sea logistics and post
  • Animals and farming
  • Airlines and airports
  • Financial, Security
  • Manufacturing
  • Leisure/sports
  • Consumer products
  • Other
 
Data is also provided for other sectors including market by territory, value chain positioning, NFC, chip vs chipless and more. Cumulative sales of RFID are analyzed. Progress of key companies is provided in addition to a matrix of hundreds of suppliers.
TABLE OF CONTENT

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1. RFID Market 2014-2024
1.2. Market Size by Application Type 2012-2024
1.3. How governments have driven most of the market
1.4. Non-government successes
1.5. Fragmented value chain
1.6. RFID Companies by gross sales
1.7. Favourite RFID frequency
1.8. RFID market forecasts for passive RFID tags by application and frequency
1.8.1. Passive UHF RFID
1.8.2. Passive HF RFID
1.8.3. Passive LF RFID
1.9. RFID market forecasts for battery assisted passive RFID, active RFID and Real Time Locating Systems RTLS tags by application
1.10. Market by Territory
1.11. Watch the BRICS
1.11.1. Russia
1.11.2. China
1.12. Analysis of RFID case studies
1.13. Impediments to the growth of RFID markets
1.14. Outlook for RFID

2. INTRODUCTION
2.1. Definitions
2.1.1. RFID
2.1.2. Chipless/printed RFID
2.1.3. Passive and active RFID
2.2. Tags have different shapes
2.3. The RFID value chain
2.4. Where tags are placed
2.5. Examples of spend by application
2.6. The show so far - 1945 to 2014
2.6.1. Cumulative sales by applicational category
2.6.2. Cumulative sales active vs passive
2.6.3. Cumulative sales chip vs chipless
2.7. Historic RFID tag sales 2005 to 2014
2.7.1. Progress in 2005
2.7.2. Progress in 2006
2.7.3. Progress in 2007
2.7.4. Progress in 2008
2.7.5. Progress in 2009
2.7.6. Progress in 2010
2.7.7. Progress in 2011
2.7.8. Progress in 2012
2.7.9. Progress in 2013
2.8. Markets by frequency - historical tag sales
2.9. Ultimate potential
2.9.1. Potential for different applications
2.10. Demand pull
2.11. Constraints on market growth
2.12. RFID Standards (ISO)
2.13. EPCglobal
2.14. Progress with EPC adoption so far
2.15. Near Field Communication (NFC)
2.16. Impediments to highest volume RFID

3. MARKET BY APPLICATION AND VALUE CHAIN POSITION
3.1. Market split by position
3.2. Market size by application
3.2.1. Market size by tag value by application
3.2.2. Market size by application
3.3. Prevalence of RFID projects for each applicational sector
3.4. Future trend of projects for each applicational sector
3.5. Current and future forms of payback by applicational sector
3.6. Healthcare and pharmaceuticals
3.7. Postal and courier services
3.8. Retail and Consumer Packaged Goods
3.8.1. Pallet/case tagging
3.8.2. Retail apparel, item level
3.9. Military and federal
3.10. Airlines and Airports
3.11. Logistics, Asset Tracking, Manufacturing
3.12. Libraries
3.13. Secure access and contactless payments
3.14. Smart Ticketing and e-Passports
3.15. Laundry/ rented textiles
3.16. Animals
3.17. RFID Embedded in Consumer Electronics Devices

4. MARKETS FOR PASSIVE RFID
4.1. Passive vs active
4.2. Sub categories of passive tag
4.3. Cost Structure of RFID passive tags - labels
4.4. Passive market by applicational sector
4.5. The main things that are passive tagged
4.6. Passive RFID market by range
4.7. RFID technologies by range and cost
4.7.1. Read range and tag cost
4.7.2. RFID Systems/Middleware
4.8. EPC Gen 2 v2
4.9. Chipless passive tags
4.9.1. Chipless options
4.9.2. Latest progress with printed transistor RFID
4.9.3. Forecast for chip vs chipless/printed tags
4.10. NFC
4.10.1. NFC background
4.10.2. 2010 turning point
4.10.3. The biggest but least used RFID network today
4.10.4. Beyond payments and transit
4.10.5. Key adoption factors
4.10.6. Technologies to address challenges
4.10.7. Conclusions: NFC in packaging

5. MARKETS FOR PASSIVE UHF RFID
5.1. Markets for Passive UHF - by Numbers of Tags
5.2. Market for Passive UHF RFID by ASP and Tag Value
5.3. Analysis of passive UHF RFID markets

6. MARKETS FOR PASSIVE HF AND LF RFID
6.1. Passive HF RFID
6.2. Passive LF RFID

7. MARKETS AND PROFITABILITY OF ACTIVE RFID
7.2. Three Generations
7.3. Where active RFID is used
7.4. Active market by applicational sector
7.5. The main things that are active tagged
7.6. Active RFID market by range
7.7. Active RFID market by battery type
7.7.1. Energy Harvesting and RFID
7.8. New active technologies create new markets
7.8.1. Hand-held homing devices
7.8.2. New markets - Battery Assisted Passive (BAP)
7.8.3. The Internet of Things and Wireless Sensor Networks
7.9. An example of massive 'niches'
7.10. Technologies facilitating growth
7.11. Forecasts for active RFID tags
7.12. Forecasts for systems
7.12.1. The spend on active RFID systems
7.12.2. Active RFID players

8. MARKET FOR RFID INTERROGATORS (RFID READERS)
8.1. Overview
8.2. RFID Interrogator (reader) numbers
8.3. RFID Interrogator (reader) price
8.4. RFID Interrogator (reader) market value

9. MARKETS BY COUNTRY
9.1. Leading continents
9.2. Geographical trends in number of projects
9.3. Central and East Asia trends in project numbers
9.4. Americas trends in project numbers
9.5. Europe trends in project numbers
9.6. China
9.7. Japan
9.8. USA
9.9. Europe

10. SUCCESSES, FAILURES, TRENDS, OPPORTUNITIES
10.1. Dynamics of the RFID value chain
10.2. Successes and Revenues
10.3. Largest orders, best selling products, dominant suppliers in future
10.3.1. Largest suppliers of chips
10.3.1. UHF RFID readers
10.3.2. Largest suppliers of software and services
10.3.2. Largest suppliers of tags, inlets, straps and detailed value chain for high volume
10.4. Summary and Outlook

APPENDIX 1: RFID SOLUTION PROVIDERS

List of Tables


1.1.Total RFID Market Projections in US dollar billions 2012-2024
1.2.Market Size by Application type $ billions 2014-2024
1.3.The largest RFID markets in 2014 versus 2024
1.4.Number of passive UHF tags (in millions) 2012-2024
1.5.Average price of passive UHF tags (US$ Cents) 2012-2024
1.6.Total value of passive UHF tags 2012-2024
1.7.Number of passive HF tags (in millions) 2012-2024
1.8.Average price of passive HF tags (US$ Cents) 2012-2024
1.9.Total value of passive HF tags 2012-2024
1.10.Number of passive LF tags (in millions) 2012-2024
1.11.Average price of passive LF tags (US$ Cents) 2012-2024
1.12.Total value of passive LF tags 2012-2024
1.13.Number of active tags (in millions) 2012-2024
1.14.Average price of active tags (US$ Cents) 2012-2024
1.15.Total value of active tags 2012-2024
2.1.Largest suppliers
2.2.Where RFID tags are placed - categories used
2.3.Money spent on various RFID projects by different applications
2.4.Cumulative global sales of RFID tags by applicational category to start of 2013 in millions
2.5.The cumulative global sales of RFID tags active vs passive in millions to the beginning of 2013 excluding NFC mobile phones emulating tags
2.6.Cumulative global sales of RFID tags chip vs chipless to the beginning of 2013 in millions
2.7.Value of RFID passive tag market in 2005
2.8.Value of RFID active tag market in 2005
2.9.Value Chain 2005
2.10.Value of RFID passive tag market in 2006
2.11.Value of RFID active tag market in 2006
2.12.Value Chain 2006
2.13.Value of RFID passive tag market in 2007
2.14.Value of RFID active tag market in 2007
2.15.Value Chain 2007
2.16.Value of RFID passive tag market in 2008
2.17.Value of RFID active tag market in 2008
2.18.Value Chain 2008
2.19.Value of RFID passive tag market in 2009
2.20.Value of RFID active tag market in 2009
2.21.Value Chain 2009
2.22.Value of RFID passive tag market in 2010
2.23.Value of RFID active tag market in 2010
2.24.Value Chain 2010
2.25.Value of RFID passive tag market in 2011
2.26.Value of RFID active tag market in 2011
2.27.Value Chain 2011
2.28.Value of RFID passive UHF tag market in 2012
2.29.Value of RFID passive HF tag market in 2012
2.30.Value of RFID passive LF tag market in 2012
2.31.Value of RFID active tag market in 2012
2.32.Value Chain 2012
2.33.The spread of tag numbers by frequency to the start of 2013
2.34.Ultimate potential annual global sales of some of the most promising tagged things that have potential for up to one billion tags used yearly
2.35.Ultimate potential annual global sales for some of the most promising tagged things with potential of over one billion tags yearly
2.36.Costs per annum for barcodes
2.37.Comparison of NFC enabled devices and contactless smart cards
2.38.The main impediments to highest volume RFID
3.1.Total RFID Market Projections in US dollar billions 2012-2024
3.2.Market Size by Application type Tags Only $ millions 2014-2024
3.3.Market Size by Application type $ billions 2014-2024
3.4.IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase 2013 - number of cases by applicational sector
3.5.Future trends for the applicational sectors with the most projects
3.6.Benefits most commonly sought and payback most commonly claimed by sector
4.1.Global market for active vs passive RFID tags by number billions 2012-2024
4.2.Global market for active vs passive RFID tags by average tag price in cents 2012-2024
4.3.Global market for active vs passive RFID tags in billions of dollars 2012-2024
4.4.Approximate cost breakdown for a passive RFID for both UHF and HF, prices are given in US Dollar cents, assuming millions of tags
4.5.The top four developments of printed transistor RFID
4.6.Cumulative global sales of RFID tags chip vs chipless to the beginning of 2013 in millions
5.1.Number of passive UHF tags (in millions) 2012-2024
5.2.Average price of passive UHF tags (US$ Cents) 2012-2024
5.3.Total value of passive UHF tags 2012-2024
6.1.Number of passive HF tags (in millions) 2012-2024
6.2.Average price of passive HF tags (US$ Cents) 2012-2024
6.3.Total value of passive HF tags 2012-2024
6.4.Number of passive LF tags (in millions) 2012-2024
6.5.Average price of passive LF tags (US$ Cents) 2012-2024
6.6.Total value of passive LF tags 2012-2024
7.2.Number of active RFID projects by applicational sector 2005 to Q4 2013
7.3.Examples of suppliers making good profits from active RFID 2002-2012
7.4.Main things tagged with active RFID tags in terms of number of projects in the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase or numbers used
7.5.Active RFID in the prison and parole service
7.6.Global potential annually for active RFID systems plus tags in the prison and parole service
7.7.Number of active tags (in millions) 2012-2024
7.8.Average price of active tags (US$ Cents) 2012-2024
7.9.Total value of active tags 2012-2024
7.10.Forecast for the value of global sales of active systems excluding tags & cellphones 2012-2024 in millions of dollars
7.11.Forecast for the value of global sales of RFID systems including tags, for vehicle clickers, BAP, SALs and other applications 2012-2024 in millions of dollars
7.12.Sectors, locations and application examples of Active RFID players
8.1.Market for RFID interrogators by application, number millions 2012-2024
8.2.Market for RFID interrogators by application, reader price US dollars 2012-2024
8.3.Market for RFID interrogators by application, US dollars millions 2012-2024
9.1.Percentage share of total RFID market value by continent 2014, 2017, 2020
9.2.Primary differences across the world in types of RFID project by number of projects, with anomalies in top preferences highlighted
10.1.Examples of dominant companies in the chip to label value chain
10.2.Market share for producers of passive UHF labels in 2013

List of Figures


1.1.IDTechEx estimates of total revenue for some of the key suppliers
1.2.RFID market by territory
1.3.Number of case studies by tag location - worldwide
1.4.Number of case studies by project status - worldwide
1.5.Number of case studies active vs passive - worldwide
1.6.Number of case studies by frequency - worldwide
1.7.Number of case studies by applications - worldwide
1.8.Number of case studies by tag shape - worldwide
2.1.The RFID value chain
2.2.An AstraZeneca syringe with chipless RFID tag
2.3.RFID from cradle to grave
2.4.Marks & Spencer reusable plastic trays for food
2.5.Marks & Spencer paybacks
2.6.Costs per annum for RF Tags
2.7.RFID and the hype cycle for pallets/cases
2.8.Some in-store benefits of apparel tagging now enjoyed by about 100 retail chains
3.1.Cost structure of passive and active RFID projects
3.2.Principle of automatic mail registrations with RFID
3.3.Mobile AMQM - equipment and practical use
3.4.Mail pipeline instrumentation
3.5.GMS RFID Gate
3.6.Tagged mail pieces
3.7.Basic supply chain overview
3.8.Real time monitoring of the RFID infrastructure
3.9.System architecture
3.10.US Navy program for the ship of the future based on RFID and allied technologies
3.11.What part of the problem are we solving?
3.12.Driving adoption
3.13.Examples of laundry tags
3.14.Typical laundry process
3.15.Woven, stitchable RFID tags, the one on the left being HF and the one on the right UHF
3.16.RFID in fibre
4.1.Passive RFID applications in packaging and containers by range
4.2.RFID range versus cost
4.3.RFID system being developed for the flower industry
4.4.Standardized EPCIS architecture
4.5.The best flexible printed transistor RFID so far - Kovio 128 bit semi read write ISO 14443 compatible
7.1.V curve of sustainable profitability vs gross sales value
7.2.Read range versus frequency
7.3.Interaction of RFID, sensing and the internet.
7.4.Total WSN Market 2010-2014 ($ Millions)
7.5.Systems, devices and interfaces that are now used by active RFID, or combined with it, in small portable devices
9.1.Top Ten Countries by number of case studies in the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase
9.2.Number of case studies by tag location - China only
9.3.Number of case studies by project status - China only
9.4.Number of case studies active vs passive - China only
9.5.Number of case studies by frequency - China only
9.6.Number of case studies read-only vs read/write - China only
9.7.Number of case studies by applications - China only
9.8.Number of case studies by tag shape - China only
9.9.Number of case studies by tag location - USA only
9.10.Number of case studies by project status - USA only
9.11.Number of case studies active vs passive - USA only
9.12.Number of case studies by frequency - USA only
9.13.Number of case studies by applications - USA only
9.14.Number of case studies by tag shape - USA only
10.1.RFID value chain
10.2.Detailed value chain and dynamics
10.3.IDTechEx estimates of total revenue for some of the key suppliers
10.4.Position of RFID suppliers to certain sectors, following the methodology of Boston Consulting Group
10.5.Competing value chains for tags

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