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Prepared Cakes and Pies - US - May 2016

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : May 2016

Category :

Bakery Products

No. of Pages : N/A

The market for prepared cakes and pies should continue growing for the foreseeable future. Consumer concerns relating to health and obesity, while certainly significant across the food and drink industry, appear somewhat less of a factor to this more indulgent category. However, consumer interest in options with reduced calories, fat, and sugar could signal both an opportunity for brands and a potential warning sign to the category's key players.

Table of Content

Overview

What you need to know
Definition

Executive Summary

The issues
Cakes/pies sales growth to slow, but continue positive growth
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of prepared cakes and pies, at current prices, 2010-20
Families consume more cakes/pies, but households with children are declining
Figure 2: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
Stand-alone bakeries’ higher quality perception challenges prepared cakes and pies
Figure 3: Purchase of bakery items, March 2015
The opportunities
Consumers express interest in sampling variety of cakes/pies
Figure 4: Factors for increasing purchase, by purchase factors, February 2016
Emotional factors influencing cake/pie consumption
Figure 5: Consumption behaviors, by generation, February 2016
Gourmet brands could appeal to Millennials
Figure 6: Attitudes, by generation, February 2016
What it means

The Market – What You Need to Know

Growth forecast for cakes/pies
Bakery options could create competition for prepared cakes/pies
Increasing disposable income could lead to less consumption

Market Size and Forecast

Cakes/pies sales growth to slow, but continue positive growth
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of prepared cakes and pies, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of prepared cakes and pies, at current prices, 2010-20

Market Breakdown

Sales of frozen/refrigerated options chill
Figure 9: Sales of prepared cakes and pies, by segment, 2015
Figure 10: Sales of prepared cakes and pies, by segment, 2013 and 2015

Market Perspective

Stand-alone bakeries’ higher-quality perception
Figure 11: Purchase of bakery items, March 2015
Millennials mix with mixes
Figure 12: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes – Convenience and enjoyment, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015

Market Factors

Rising obesity rates could strongly impact cake/pie category
Figure 13: Trends in obesity prevalence among adults aged 20 and over (age-adjusted) and youth aged 2-19 years: US, 1999-2000 through 2013-14
Figure 14: Current diet status, July 2015
Increased consumer confidence likely to lead to less at-home cooking
Figure 15: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-November 2015
Youth movement could lead to more cake/pie demand
Figure 16: US population by generation, 2010-20
Figure 17: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13

Key Players – What You Need to Know

Few players control lion’s share of cake/pie market
Relative newcomer gains significant traction
Potential for free-from claims in cake/pies

Manufacturer Sales of Prepared Cakes and Pies

Mckee Foods maintains significant market share lead
Manufacturer sales of prepared cakes and pies
Figure 18: MULO sales of prepared cakes and pies, 2015-16

What’s Working?

A healthy indulgence
Figure 19: General Mills Fiber One
Private label holds sizable share of shelf-stable market
Figure 20: MULO sales of shelf-stable cakes and pies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016; market share in parentheses
Marie Callender’s capitalizing on from-scratch positioning
Figure 21: Marie Callender's Peach Pie
Figure 22: Marie Callender’s Dutch Apple Pie TV ad, “Make Special Moments,” 2016
Artisanal advantages
Figure 23: Café Valley Bakery Cinnamon Cream Cheese Coffeecake

What’s Struggling?

Little Debbie’s lackluster returns
Figure 24: Little Debbie launches
Figure 25: Little Debbie TV ad, “Younger You,” 2016
Sara Lee slumps
Figure 26: Sara Lee Raspberry Crème Flaky

What’s Next?

Potential for refrigerated (chilled) varieties
Figure 27: Prepared cakes and pies launches versus storage, 2011-15
Sustainable options
Figure 28: Prepared cakes/pies with sustainable claims
Pies/cakes with free-from claims
Figure 29: Prepared cakes/pies with free-from claims

The Consumer – What You Need to Know

Consumption varies depending on presence of children
Cakes/pies as a snack
Consumers want to sample before purchase
Package size playing a key role
Organic options compelling Millennials
Consumers recognize need for moderation of cake/pie consumption

Usage of Prepared Cakes and Pies

Prepared options are challenged by mix interest
Figure 30: Usage of prepared cakes and/or pies, February 2016
Black consumers consuming notably more snack cakes
Figure 31: Usage of prepared cakes and/or pies, by race, February 2016
Parents baking from scratch and mixes
Figure 32: Usage of prepared cakes and/or pies, by parental status by gender, February 2016
Households with children turn to prepared cakes and pies
Figure 33: Usage of prepared cakes and/or pies, by number of children under 18 in household, February 2016
Cake/pie consumers seeking more flavor options
Figure 34: Usage, by attitudes – Any agree, February 2016
Younger generations turning to baking mixes and from scratch
Figure 35: Usage of prepared cakes and/or pies, by generation, February 2016
Hispanic interest in scratch options challenge prepared options
Figure 36: Usage of prepared cakes and/or pies, by Hispanic origin, February 2016

Usage Occasions

Cakes/pies an option for snacking and dessert occasions
Figure 37: Usage occasions, February 2016
Millennials incorporating prepared cakes/pies into meals
Figure 38: Usage occasions, by generation, February 2016
Income factors strongly in cake/pie consumption
Figure 39: Usage occasions, by household income, February 2016
Concerns about preservatives impact consumers
Figure 40: Usage occasions, by attitudes – Any agree, February 2016
Cakes/pies utilized notably as a part of Hispanics’ meals
Figure 41: Usage occasions, by Hispanic origin, February 2016

Increasing Purchases of Cakes/Pies

Samples could prove persuasive to consumers
Figure 42: Factors for increasing purchase, February 2016
Family-size options of greater interest to younger demos
Figure 43: Factors for increasing purchase, by generation, February 2016
Larger formats of more interest to Hispanics
Figure 44: Factors for increasing purchase, by Hispanic origin, February 2016

Opinions of Prepared Cakes and Pies

Consumer interest in new flavors and varieties
Figure 45: Consumption behaviors, February 2016
Emotional factors influencing cake/pie consumption
Figure 46: Consumption behaviors, by generation, February 2016
Freshly prepared options of less interest to larger households
Figure 47: Consumption behaviors, by number of children under 18 in household, February 2016
Hispanics turn to cakes/pies to boost mood
Figure 48: Consumption behaviors, by Hispanic origin, February 2016

Cake/Pie Purchase Factors

Nutrients could prove compelling
Figure 49: Purchase factors, February 2016
Organic cakes/pies of notable interest to Millennials
Figure 50: Purchase factors, by generation, February 2016
Health factors appear to cross income demographics
Figure 51: Purchase factors, by household income, February 2016
Allergen issues of significantly greater interest to parents
Figure 52: Purchase factors, by parental status, February 2016
Low/no claim-seeking consumers looking for greater flavor variety
Figure 53: Usage, by purchase factors, January 2016
Healthier options could compel Hispanic consumers of cakes/pies
Figure 54: Purchase factors, by Hispanic origin, February 2016

Attitudes toward Cakes/Pies

Consumers recognize need for moderation in cake/pie consumption
Figure 55: Attitudes, February 2016
Gourmet brands could appeal to Millennials
Figure 56: Attitudes, by generation, February 2016
Category-loyal consumers interested in greater variety
Figure 57: Usage occasions, by attitudes – Any agree, February 2016
Customization impacting cakes/pies
Figure 58: Usage, by attitudes – Any agree, February 2016
Hispanics interested in greater variety of flavors in cakes/pies
Figure 59: Attitudes, by Hispanic origin, February 2016

Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations

Appendix – Market

Figure 60: Total US sales and forecast of prepared cakes and pies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared cakes and pies, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 62: Total US retail sales of prepared cakes and pies, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen/refrigerated cakes/pies, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen/refrigerated cakes/pies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable cakes/pies, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable cakes/pies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable cupcakes/brownies, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable cupcakes/brownies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store baked cakes/pies, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store baked cakes/pies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 71: Total US retail sales of prepared cakes and pies, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 72: Total US retail sales of prepared cakes and pies, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Figure 73: US supermarket sales of prepared cakes and pies, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 74: US sales of prepared cakes and pies through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15

Appendix – Key Players

Figure 75: MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated cakes and pies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
Figure 76: MULO sales of shelf-stable cakes and pies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
Figure 77: MULO sales of cupcakes and brownies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016

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