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Prepared Cakes and Pies - US - June 2014

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Jun 2014

Category :

Bakery Products

No. of Pages : 128 Pages


Portion-controlled formats, higher-quality ingredients, and new flavors can help consumers indulge in prepared cakes and pies, while maintaining a sense of moderation. Positive perceptions of private label products, which represent the largest share of the market, will increase price competition, but also create opportunities for brand names to differentiate with premium offerings that consumers are willing to pay more for.
Table of Content

Scope and Themes
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations

Executive Summary
Overview
The market
Sales forecasted to reach $13.2 billion in 2019
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of prepared cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-19
In-store baked cakes and pies represent more than half of the category
Figure 2: Total US retail sales of prepared cakes and pies, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
Key players
Top five brands increase year-over-year sales
Figure 3: MULO sales of prepared cakes and pies, by leading companies, 2014*
Retail channels
Supermarket sales represent two thirds of the category
Figure 4: Total US retail sales of prepared cakes and pies, by channel, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
The consumer
More than two thirds have eaten RTE cakes and pies
Figure 5: Personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, April 2014
Format, promotions most influential
Figure 6: Influential factors for purchasing more prepared cakes and/or pies, Top five, April 2014
Cakes and pies viewed as an indulgence
Figure 7: Behaviors related to prepared cakes and/or pies, top five, April 2014
Taste trumps nutrition
Figure 8: Any agreement with attitudes toward prepared cakes and/or pies, top five, April 2014
What we think

Issues and Insights
Are consumers still willing to indulge with cakes and pies?
Issues
Insight: Now they can indulge responsibly
How can product offerings be improved?
Issues
Insight: Focus on flavors, ingredients, and format
What effect will private label offerings have on the category?
Issues
Insight: Private label will increase competition for price, differentiation

Trend Applications
Trend: Transumers
Trend: Mood to Order
Trend: Hungry Planet

Market Size and Forecast
Key points
Sales forecasted to reach $13.2 billion in 2019
Sales and forecast of prepared cakes and pies
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared cakes and pies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Fan chart forecast
Figure 11: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of prepared cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-19

Market Drivers
Key points
Increased snacking occasions to positively impact the category
Figure 12: adults aged 20 years and older consuming specified number of snacks per day, 1977-78 and 2007-08
Obesity epidemic will force manufacturers to offer BFY options
Figure 13: Age-adjusted prevalence of obesity in US, by gender, among adults aged 20 and older, 2009-10 and 2011-12
Population growth helps position Hispanics as a target audience
Figure 14: Total US population by race and Hispanic origin, 2009-19

Competitive Context
Key points
Baking from mixes, scratch may reduce need to purchase prepared items
Stand-alone bakeries may appeal to gourmet seekers

Segment Performance
Key points
Shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies lead in category growth
Sales of prepared cakes and pies, by segment
Figure 15: Total US retail sales of prepared cakes and pies, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
Sales growth of in-store baked cakes and pies slows
Sales and forecast of cakes and pies baked in stores
Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store baked cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-19
Shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies grow most over last five years
Sales and forecast of shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies
Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies, at current prices, 2009-19
Shelf-stable cakes and pies grow 33% from 2009-14
Sales and forecast of shelf-stable cakes and pies
Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-19
Sales of frozen and refrigerated cakes and pies dip
Sales and forecast of frozen and refrigerated cakes and pies
Figure 19: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen/refrigerated cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-19

Retail Channels
Key points
Strong growth in non-supermarket channels
Sales of prepared cakes and pies, by channel
Figure 20: Total US retail sales of prepared cakes and pies, by channel, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
Supermarket channel sales growth flattens
Supermarket sales of prepared cakes and pies
Figure 21: US supermarket sales of prepared cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-14
Steady sales increases across other retail channels
Figure 22: Big Lots Mostess- #thriftisback Video, 2014
Other retail channel sales of prepared cakes and pies
Figure 23: US sales of prepared cakes and pies, through other retail channels, at current prices, 2009-14

Leading Companies
Key points
All top five brands increase sales
Figure 24: Little Debbie Cosmic Cupcakes Launch Video, 2014
Figure 25: Little Debbie website, 2014
Figure 26: Tastykake Facebook Post, 2014
Figure 27: Mrs. Freshley’s New packaging, 2013
Figure 28: Hostess website, 2014
Manufacturer sales of market
Figure 29: MULO sales of prepared cakes and pies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014

Brand Share – Shelf-Stable Cupcakes and Brownies
Key points
McKee Foods represents nearly one third of segment
Manufacturer sales of shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies
Figure 30: MULO sales of shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Hostess Brands’ brand loyalty takes a hit
Figure 31: Key purchase measures for the top prepared cake and pie brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)

Brand Share – Shelf-Stable Cakes and Pies
Key points
Private label products dominate
Manufacturer sales of shelf-stable cakes and pies
Figure 32: MULO sales of shelf-stable cakes and pies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Strong brand loyalty for private label pie brands
Figure 33: Key purchase measures for the top prepared cake and pie brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)

Brand Share – Frozen and Refrigerated Cakes and Pies
Key points
Schwan’s, ConAgra represent more than half of segment sales
Figure 34: Edwards frozen desserts website, May 2014
Figure 35: Mrs. Smith’s Facebook Post, 2014
Manufacturer sales of frozen and refrigerated cakes and pies
Figure 36: MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated cakes and pies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Slight drop in households buying frozen pies
Figure 37: Key purchase measures for the top prepared cake and pie brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)

Innovations and Innovators
New product innovation increases nearly 18% from 2009-14
Figure 38: Prepared cakes and pies product launches, by type, March 2009-14
Seasonal, gluten-free grow more than all other claims
Figure 39: Prepared cakes and pies product launches, by top 10 claims, March 2009-14
Chocolate remains top flavor
Figure 40: Prepared cakes and pies product launches, by top 10 flavors, March 2009-14
Hybrid formats and flavors enter retail
Big flavors, small size
Gourmet, high-quality ingredients

Household and Personal Consumption
Key points
Women more likely to eat cakes and pies made from scratch, mixes
Figure 41: Personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, by gender, April 2014
18-44s eating more RTE cakes and pies
Figure 42: Personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, by age, April 2014
Households with children more likely to bake and eat cakes and pies
Figure 43: Personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, by presence of children in household, April 2014

Consumption Occasions
Key points
Men likely to eat prepared cakes and pies as part of, or in place of, a meal
Figure 44: Consumption occasions, by gender, April 2014
Nearly two in five 25-34s eat cakes and pies as a meal replacement
Figure 45: Consumption occasions, by age, April 2014

Influential Factors
Key points
Format, promotions most influential on purchase
Figure 46: Influential factors for purchasing more prepared cakes and/or pies, by age, April 2014

Behaviors Related to Prepared Cakes and/or Pies
Key points
Cakes and pies viewed as an indulgence
Figure 47: Behaviors related to prepared cakes and/or pies, by gender and age, April 2014
Consumers eating more shelf-stable pies, refrigerated/frozen cakes
Figure 48: Behaviors related to prepared cakes and/or pies, by prepared cakes and/or pies eaten, April 2014

Important Characteristics
Key points
Nutrition most important when buying in-store baked cakes and pies
Figure 49: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies, April 2014
Figure 50: Snack cakes consumption by type, October 2007-December 2013

Attitudes toward Prepared Cakes and/or Pies
Key points
Strong positive perceptions of prepared cakes and pies
Figure 51: Any agreement with attitudes toward prepared cakes and/or pies, by age, April 2014

Race and Hispanic Origin
Key points
Hispanics most likely to eat RTE cakes and pies
Figure 52: Personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
Figure 53: Repertoire of personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
Hispanics most impacted by format, ethnic flavors
Figure 54: Influential factors for purchasing more prepared cakes and/or pies, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
Ingredient and flavor improvement needed
Figure 55: Any agreement with attitudes toward prepared cakes and/or pies, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014

Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables
Figure 56: Consumption occasions, by gender, April 2014
Figure 57: Snack cakes consumption, October 2007-December 2013
Figure 58: Snack cakes consumption, December 2007-December 2013
Figure 59: Snack cakes or pies consumption, October 2007-December 2013
Figure 60: Consumption occasions, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
Figure 61: Consumption occasions, by personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, April 2014
Figure 62: Frozen cakes and pies consumption by type, October 2007-December 2013
Figure 63: Frequency of snack cake/pie consumption in last month, October 2007-December 2013
Figure 64: Influence on snack cake brands purchased, December 2007-December 2013
Figure 65: Frequency of favorite snack cakes/pies in house, October 2007-December 2013
Figure 66: Influential factors for purchasing more prepared cakes and/or pies, by gender, April 2014
Figure 67: Influential factors for purchasing more prepared cakes and/or pies, by personal consumption of prepared cakes and/or pies, April 2014
Figure 68: Behaviors related to prepared cakes and/or pies, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
Figure 69: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – Cakes and pies baked in stores, by age, April 2014
Figure 70: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – Frozen and refrigerated cakes and pies, by age, April 2014
Figure 71: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – shelf-stable cakes and pies, by age, April 2014
Figure 72: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – Shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies, by age, April 2014
Figure 73: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – Cakes and pies baked in stores, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
Figure 74: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – Frozen and refrigerated cakes and pies, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
Figure 75: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – shelf-stable cakes and pies, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
Figure 76: Important characteristics when purchasing prepared cakes and/or pies – Shelf-stable cupcakes and brownies, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014
Figure 77: Any agreement with attitudes toward prepared cakes and/or pies, by gender, April 2014
Figure 78: Any agreement with attitudes toward prepared cakes and/or pies, by prepared cakes and/or pies eaten, April 2014

Appendix – Information Resources Inc. Builders Panel Data Definitions
Information Resources Inc. Consumer Network Metrics

Appendix – Trade Associations

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