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PharmaPoint: Type 2 Diabetes - Spain Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

Published By :

GlobalData

Published Date : Jul 2013

Category :

Metabolic Disorders

No. of Pages : 227 Pages


GlobalData has released its new Country report, PharmaPoint: Type 2 Diabetes Spain Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022. The type 2 diabetes market is mature and crowded with inexpensive generics. Despite being marked by a late-stage pipeline filled with me-too drugs, this market will undergo substantial growth between 2012 and 2022, more than doubling over this period. The main drivers of growth will be the dramatic increase in disease prevalence and physicians efforts to delay disease progression and reduce the costly burden of diabetic complications through the use of combination therapies and novel branded drugs. In the emerging markets in particular, uptake of branded drugs will increase due to rapid economic growth. We anticipate that the type 2 diabetes market will not experience a fundamental shift in the classes of drugs that are preferred by physicians. Rapid uptake of drugs from the novel class of SGLT-2 inhibitors will occur; however, DPP-4 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists will continue dominating the noninsulin type 2 diabetes space. GLP-1 receptor agonists will experience the fastest growth of all classes (CAGR of 17%), due to their weight-loss effects and their novel once-weekly administration, which is preferable to the standard onceor twice-daily therapies.

A dip in sales caused by Actos patent expiry in 2012 and three insulin products patent expiries by 2015 will be offset by 16 pipeline product launches over the forecast period. Byettas patent expiration in 2016 will not have a major impact on the market, as its sales have been declining, with Victoza and Bydureon overtaking its shares.

Scope

  • Overview of type 2 diabetes including epidemiology, etiology, symptoms, diagnosis, pathology and treatment guidelines as well as an overview on the competitive landscape.
  • Detailed information on the key drugs in Spain including product description, safety and efficacy profiles as well as a SWOT analysis.
  • Sales forecast for the top drugs in Spain from 2012-2022.
  • Analysis of the impact of key events as well the drivers and restraints affecting Spain type 2 diabetes market.

Reasons to buy

  • Understand and capitalize by identifying products that are most likely to ensure a robust return
  • Stay ahead of the competition by understanding the changing competitive landscape for type 2 diabetes
  • Effectively plan your M&A and partnership strategies by identifying drugs with the most promising sales potential
  • Make more informed business decisions from insightful and in-depth analysis of drug performance
  • Obtain sales forecast for drugs from 2012-2022 in Spain
Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 5
1.1 List of Tables 8
1.2 List of Figures 11

2 Introduction 12
2.1 Catalyst 12
2.2 Related Reports 13

3 Disease Overview 16
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology 16
3.1.1 Etiology 16
3.1.2 Pathophysiology 17
3.1.3 Prognosis 18
3.1.4 Quality of Life 19
3.2 Symptoms 19

4 Disease Management 21
4.1 Treatment Overview 21
4.1.1 Diagnosis and Referrals 21
4.1.2 Treatment Guidelines 22
4.2 Spain 28
4.2.1 Diagnosis 28
4.2.2 Clinical Practice 28
5 Competitive Assessment 30
5.1 Overview 30
5.2 Strategic Competitor Assessment 31
5.3 Product Profiles - Major Brands 33
5.3.1 Metformin 33
5.3.2 Sulfonylureas (SUs) and Other Insulin Secretagogues 38
5.3.3 a-glucosidase Inhibitors (AGIs) 42
5.3.4 Thiazolidinediones (TZDs) 45
5.3.5 GLP-1 Receptor Agonists 49
5.3.6 DPP-4 Inhibitors 68
5.3.7 SGLT-2 Inhibitors 91
5.3.8 Insulin Formulations 99

6 Opportunity and Unmet Need 119
6.1 Overview 119
6.2 Unmet Needs 120
6.2.1 Drugs Providing Sustained Glycemic Control 120
6.2.2 Drugs with Non-Glycemic Benefits 121
6.2.3 Increased Patient Compliance 122
6.2.4 Drugs with Improved Side-Effect Profiles 123
6.2.5 Earlier Diagnosis 124
6.3 Unmet Needs Gap Analysis 125
6.4 Oral Therapy with Sustainable Efficacy 126
6.5 Oral Therapy Offering Weight Loss 126
6.6 Cardio-metabolic Therapy 127
6.7 Promotion of Type 2 Diabetes Drugs in Emerging Markets 127

7 Pipeline Assessment 128
7.1 Overview 128
7.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development 129
7.2.1 Albiglutide 134
7.2.2 Dulaglutide (LY2189265) 139
7.2.3 Semaglutide 145
7.2.4 MK-3102 149
7.2.5 Empagliflozin 153
7.2.6 Tofogliflozin 158
7.2.7 Fasiglifam (TAK-875) 161
7.2.8 LY2409021 166
7.2.9 LY2605541 (insulin peglispro) 169

8 Market Outlook 174
8.1 Spain 174
8.1.1 Forecast 174
8.1.2 Key Events 178
8.1.3 Drivers and Barriers 179

9 Appendix 181
9.1 Bibliography 181
9.2 Abbreviations 205
9.3 Methodology 208
9.4 Forecasting Methodology 208
9.4.1 Diagnosed Type 2 Patients 208
9.4.2 Percent Drug-Treated Patients 209
9.4.3 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class 209
9.4.4 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates 210
9.4.5 General Pricing Assumptions 211
9.4.6 Individual Drug Assumptions 211
9.4.7 Pricing of Pipeline Agents 221
9.5 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study 222
9.6 About the Authors 224
9.6.1 Analyst II - CVMD 224
9.6.2 Therapy Director - CVMD and Infectious Disease 224
9.6.3 Global Head of Healthcare 225
9.7 About GlobalData 226
9.8 Disclaimer 226

List of Table


Table 1: Symptoms of Type 2 Diabetes 20
Table 2: Diagnostic Tests and Typical Criteria for Type 2 Diabetes 21
Table 3: Treatment Guidelines for Type 2 Diabetes 23
Table 4: Most-Prescribed Drugs (Following Metformin and Sulfonylureas) for Type 2 Diabetes by Class in the Global Markets, 2012 26
Table 5: Leading Branded Treatments for Type 2 Diabetes, 2012 32
Table 6: Product Profile - Metformin 35
Table 7: Metformin SWOT Analysis, 2012 37
Table 8: First-Generation Sulfonylureas 39
Table 9: Second-Generation Sulfonylureas 39
Table 10: Product Profile - Sulfonylureas 40
Table 11: Sulfonylureas SWOT Analysis, 2012 41
Table 12: Product Profile - Acarbose 43
Table 13: AGIs SWOT Analysis, 2012 45
Table 14: Product Profile - Actos 47
Table 15: Actos SWOT Analysis, 2012 49
Table 16: GLP-1 Receptor Agonists 51
Table 17: Product Profile - Byetta 53
Table 18: Byetta SWOT Analysis, 2012 55
Table 19: Product Profile - Victoza 57
Table 20: Victoza SWOT Analysis, 2012 59
Table 21: Product Profile - Bydureon 61
Table 22: Bydureon SWOT Analysis, 2012 63
Table 23: Product Profile - Lyxumia 65
Table 24: Lyxumia SWOT Analysis, 2012 68
Table 25: Marketed DPP-4 Inhibitors 70
Table 26: Marketed DPP-4 Inhibitors in Combination with Other OADs 70
Table 27: Product Profile - Januvia 72
Table 28: Januvia SWOT Analysis, 2012 74
Table 29: Product Profile - Onglyza 76
Table 30: Onglyza SWOT Analysis, 2012 78
Table 31: Product Profile - Tradjenta 80
Table 32: Tradjenta SWOT Analysis, 2012 82
Table 33: Product Profile - Galvus 84
Table 34: Galvus SWOT Analysis, 2012 87
Table 35: Product Profile - Nesina 88
Table 36: Nesina SWOT Analysis, 2012 90
Table 37: Product Profile - Forxiga 93
Table 38: Forxiga SWOT Analysis, 2012 95
Table 39: Product Profile - Invokana 96
Table 40: Invokana SWOT Analysis, 2012 98
Table 41: Insulins - Overview and Comparison 100
Table 42: Insulin Formulations 100
Table 43: Product Profile - Humalog 101
Table 44: Humalog SWOT Analysis, 2012 103
Table 45: Product Profile - Lantus 104
Table 46: Lantus SWOT Analysis, 2012 107
Table 47: Product Profile - Levemir 108
Table 48: Levemir SWOT Analysis, 2012 110
Table 49: Product Profile - Novolog 111
Table 50: Novolog SWOT Analysis, 2012 112
Table 51: Product Profile - Apidra 113
Table 52: Apidra SWOT Analysis, 2012 115
Table 53: Product Profile - Tresiba 116
Table 54: Tresiba SWOT Analysis, 2012 118
Table 55: Overall Unmet Needs - Current Level of Attainment 119
Table 56: Clinical Unmet Needs - Gap Analysis, 2013 125
Table 57: Type 2 Diabetes - Phase Pipeline, 2012 131
Table 58: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for Type 2 Diabetes, 2012 132
Table 59: Product Profile - Albiglutide 135
Table 60: Albiglutide SWOT Analysis, 2013 139
Table 61: Product Profile - Dulaglutide 141
Table 62: Dulaglutide SWOT Analysis, 2012 145
Table 63: Product Profile - Semaglutide 146
Table 64: Semaglutide SWOT Analysis, 2012 149
Table 65: Product Profile - MK-3102 150
Table 66: MK-3102 SWOT Analysis, 2013 152
Table 67: Product Profile - Empagliflozin 154
Table 68: Empagliflozin SWOT Analysis, 2013 157
Table 69: Product Profile - Tofogliflozin 159
Table 70: Tofogliflozin SWOT Analysis, 2013 161
Table 71: Product Profile - Fasiglifam 162
Table 72: Fasiglifam SWOT Analysis, 2013 165
Table 73: Product Profile - LY2409021 167
Table 74: LY2409021 SWOT Analysis, 2013 169
Table 75: Product Profile - LY2605541 170
Table 76: LY2605541 SWOT Analysis, 2013 173
Table 77: Spain Sales Forecasts ($m) for Type 2 Diabetes, 2012-2022 175
Table 78: Key Events Impacting Sales for Type 2 Diabetes in Spain, 2012-2022 178
Table 79: Type 2 Diabetes Market - Drivers and Barriers in Spain, 2012 179
Table 80: Key Launch Dates 210
Table 81: Key Patent Expiries 210
Table 82: Number of High-Prescribing Physicians Surveyed 223

List of Chart


Figure 1: ADA/EASD General Recommendations for Antihyperglycemic Therapy 25
Figure 2: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in Type 2 Diabetes, 2012-2022 133
Figure 3: Sales for Type 2 Diabetes in Spain by Drug Class, 2012-2022 177

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