Obesity Therapeutics to 2019 - Safety Concerns Hinder Drug Performance Despite Large Market Opportunity

GBI Research
Published Date » 2013-08-30
No. Of Pages » N/A

GBI Research, the leading business intelligence provider, has released its latest research: Obesity Therapeutics to 2019 – Safety Concerns Hinder Drug Performance Despite Large Market Opportunity”. Obesity is often described as a global endemic, with incidence dramatically increasing over the past decades, particularly in developed countries. Being overweight or obese is a major risk factor in the development of many chronic diseases, including cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and diabetes, of which treatment incurs extensive economic and healthcare costs. 

Numerous anti-obesity drugs have been approved in the past decade, including Knoll Pharmaceutical’s Meridia (sibutramine) and Acomplia (rimonabant), only for them to be removed from the market due to evidence of suicidal thoughts, depression and cardiovascular problems with their long-term use. As such, healthcare professionals have a negative perception of such drugs and do not widely prescribe them, a major barrier to the growth of the anti-obesity therapeutics market. Only orlistat is currently deemed safe for the long-term treatment of obesity; being proven to produce a placebo-adjusted weight-loss average of a limited 3kg. Two anti-obesity drugs were approved in June and July 2012, and GBI Research believes that only one, Vivus’ Qsymia, has a strong enough safety and efficacy (average placebo-adjusted weight loss of 5kg at the medium dose) profile to make a significant impact on the market, providing it is proven safe in long-term-use studies. 

If proven safe, GBI Research expects the sales of Qsymia and other drugs expected to be approved over the forecast period to increase the market size to $2.7 billion. Although moderate, this is significantly below the market potential given the size of the prevalence population. Optimally safe and effective anti-obesity drugs which overcome healthcare professionals’ negative opinions will have to be developed if the size of the market is ever to reflect the prevalence of obesity.


The report analyzes the incidence of obesity, current treatment options, pipeline and market forecasts, and deals surrounding anti-obesity drugs.

The report includes:

  • A brief introduction to obesity; detailed analysis of recent, current and projected incidence trends; co-morbidities; economic implications of their treatment; and the current treatment options
  • Analysis of the currently marketed anti-obesity drugs, including recent sales figures, safety and efficacy data, and a discussion of each drug’s expected performance within the forecast period
  • Comprehensive reviews of the pipeline for anti-obesity drugs, including analysis by molecule type and mechanism of action
  • Statistical analysis of clinical trial duration, size, and failure rate by Phase and molecule type
  • An in-depth forecast model for the anti-obesity drugs market in the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Japan. Each model is based on the anticipated market performance of marketed drugs and those expected to be approved within the forecast period, and takes into account drug cost, efficacy, safety, and likely prescription volumes.
  • A detailed discussion of the drivers and barriers for this immature market

Reasons to Buy

The report will enhance your decision-making capability by allowing you to:

  • Understand the large number of potential molecular targets for the development of an anti-obesity drug, as well as the strengths, weaknesses, and risks of each drug type
  • Gain an in-depth view of the current status of the anti-obesity drug pipeline, including the most common molecular targets and molecule types in development
  • Observe the trends in clinical trial duration and size by Phase, molecule type and mechanism of action, and use the clinical trial failure rate analysis to assess the risk profiles of current and future developmental programs
  • Assess the potential clinical and commercial impact of current late-stage pipeline molecules on the anti-obesity drugs market
  • Analyze current and past deals surrounding anti-obesity drugs, including their value, year of deal and in depth details of the highest value deals
Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents
1.1 List of Tables
1.2 List of Figures

2 Introduction
2.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology
2.2 Classification
2.3 Epidemiology
2.3.1 The US
2.3.2 Obesity in the Top Five European Markets
2.3.3 Japan
2.4 Comorbidities
2.4.1 Type 2 Diabetes
2.4.2 Hypertension
2.4.3 Dyslipidemia
2.4.4 Respiratory Problems
2.4.5 Osteoarthritis
2.4.6 Cancer Risk
2.5 Economic Burden
2.6 Current Therapy Options
2.6.1 Lifestyle and Behavioral Modifications
2.6.2 Bariatric Surgery
2.6.3 Pharmacotherapy
2.6.4 Treatment Algorithms and Prescription Habits
2.6.5 Method of Determining Treatment Effectiveness
2.7 Why Develop Therapeutic Anti-obesity Drugs?
2.8 GBI Research Report Guidance

3 Marketed Products
3.1 Amphetamine-like Drugs
3.1.1 Overview
3.1.2 Efficacy Profile
3.1.3 Safety Profile
3.2 Qsymia, Vivus, Inc.
3.2.1 Overview
3.2.2 Efficacy Profile
3.2.3 Safety Profile
3.2.4 Discussion
3.3 Orlistat
3.3.1 Overview
3.3.2 Efficacy Profile
3.3.3 Safety Profile
3.3.4 Discussion
3.4 Belviq, Arena Pharmaceuticals
3.4.1 Introduction
3.4.2 Efficacy Profile
3.4.3 Safety Profile
3.4.4 Discussion
3.5 Low Long-term Success Rate of Marketed Anti-Obesity Drugs
3.6 Discussion

4 Pipeline
4.1 Overview of Pipeline by Phase, Molecule Type and Molecular Target
4.2 Clinical Trial Duration and Size
4.2.1 Clinical Trial Duration
4.2.2 Clinical Trial Size
4.3 Clinical Trial Failure, Attrition Rate and Reasons for Clinical Trial Failure
4.4 Primary and Secondary Endpoints
4.5 Late-stage Drugs of the Developmental Pipeline
4.5.1 Contrave, Orexigen Therapeutics
4.5.2 Cametor, Norgine BV
4.5.3 Victoza, Novo Nordisk
4.5.4 Tesofensine (NeuroSearch)
4.6 Discussion

5 Market Forecasts
5.1 Global Market
5.2 The US
5.2.1 Epidemiology and Treatment Usage Patterns
5.2.2 Annual Cost of Therapy
5.2.3 Market Size
5.3 Europe
5.3.1 Treatment Usage Patterns
5.3.2 Annual Cost of Therapy
5.3.3 Market Size
5.4 Japan
5.4.1 Treatment Usage Patterns
5.4.2 Annual Cost of Therapy
5.4.3 Market Forecast
5.5 Discussion
5.6 Drivers and Barriers of the Anti-obesity Market
5.7 Obesity Market Drivers
5.7.1 Obesity is a Very Prevalent Disease with Large Potential Target Populations Globally
5.7.2 Recent Approval of Qsymia to Drive Market Growth Providing its Long-term Safety is Proved
5.7.3 Diversification of Molecular Targets
5.8 Obesity Market Barriers
5.8.1 Low Treatment Rate
5.8.2 Reimbursement Issues

6 Licensing and Co-Development Deals
6.1 Licensing Deals
6.1.1 EMD Serono Enters into Collaboration and Licensing Agreement with Theratechnologies
6.1.2 Amylin Pharma Enters into Licensing Agreement with Takeda Pharma
6.1.3 Palatin Technologies Extends License Agreement with AstraZeneca
6.1.4 Zealand Pharma Enters into Licensing and Collaboration Agreement with Boehringer
6.2 Co-development Deals
6.2.1 Isis Enters into Collaboration Agreement with Ortho-McNeil
6.2.2 Orexigen Therapeutics Enters into Co-development Agreement with Takeda Pharma for

7 Appendix
7.1 References
7.2 Abbreviations
7.3 All Pipeline Drugs by Phase
7.3.1 Discovery
7.3.2 Preclinical
7.3.3 Phase I
7.3.4 Phase II
7.3.5 Phase III
7.3.6 Pre-Registration
7.4 Market Forecasts to 2019
7.4.1 Global
7.4.2 The US
7.4.3 UK
7.4.4 France
7.4.5 Germany
7.4.6 Italy
7.4.7 Spain
7.4.8 Japan
7.5 Methodology
7.6 Secondary Research
7.7 Therapeutic Landscape
7.8 Epidemiology-Based Forecasting
7.9 Market Size by Geography
7.10 Pipeline Analysis
7.11 Contact Us
7.12 Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: BMI Classifications
Table 2: Key Components of Pathways Thought to be Related to Obesity
Table 3: Treatment Options Dependent on BMI
Table 4: Obesity Therapeutics, Leading Brand Names of Phentermine
Table 5: Efficacy Results* for Qsymia at 52 Weeks
Table 6: Changes in Key Safety Parameters in Patients Treated with Qsymia
Table 7: Sales Data for Xenical ($m), 2008–2011
Table 8: Efficacy Results for Orlistat as an Initial and Maintenance Therapy
Table 9: Safety Results of Orlistat
Table 10: Efficacy Results for Belviq
Table 11: Placebo-adjusted Safety Results for Belviq
Table 12: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Common Molecular Targets in the Obesity Pipeline
Table 13: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Average Clinical Trial Size for the Most Common Modes of
Action Amongst Pipeline Drugs, 2006–2013
Table 14: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Average Clinical Trial Duration for the Main Modes of
Action Amongst Pipeline Drugs, 2013
Table 15: Contrave, Phase III Clinical Trial Results
Table 16: Contrave, Efficacy Results, Phase III Clinical Trial
Table 17: Cametor, Efficacy Results of a Phase II Clinical Trial
Table 18: Cametor, Safety and Efficacy Results, Phase III Clinical Trial
Table 19: Victoza, Clinical Trial Results, Phase III Clinical Trial, 2009
Table 20: Victoza, Clinical Trial Results, Phase III Clinical Trial, 2009
Table 21: Victoza ,Safety and Efficacy Results, Phase III Clinical Trial, 2009
Table 22: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Europe, Current Prevalence Rate of the Population Which is
Obese or Overweight, 2012–2019
Table 23: Obesity Therapeutics Market: Global, Developmental Pipeline, Discovery Phase
Table 24: Obesity Therapeutics Market: Global, Developmental Pipeline, Preclinical Phase
Table 25: Obesity Therapeutics Market: Global, Developmental Pipeline, Phase I
Table 26: Obesity Therapeutics Market: Global, Developmental Pipeline, Phase II
Table 27: Obesity Therapeutics Market: Global, Developmental Pipeline, Phase III
Table 28: Obesity Pharmacotherapy Market: Global, Developmental Pipeline, Pre-Registration
Table 29: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Market Forecasts, 2012–2019
Table 30: Obesity Therapeutics Market, US, Market Forecasts, 2012–2019
Table 31: Obesity Therapeutics Market, UK, Market Forecasts, 2012–2019
Table 32: Obesity Therapeutics Market, France, Market Forecasts, 2012–2019
Table 33: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Germany, Market Forecasts, 2012–2019
Table 34: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Italy, Market Forecasts, 2012–2019
Table 35: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Spain, Market Forecasts, 2012–2019
Table 36: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Japan, Market Forecasts, 2012–2019

List of Figures

Figure 1: Obesity, Global, Prevalence (%), 1990–2010
Figure 2: Effects of Topiramate on Food Intake
Figure 3: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Obesity Drug Approvals and Market Removals
Figure 4: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Heat Map Comparing the Safety and Efficacy of Marketed Drugs
Figure 5: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Heat Map Comparing the Performance of Marketed Drugs in
Major Safety Parameters
Figure 6: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Pipeline by Phase and Molecule Type and Molecular
Figure 7: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Duration by Phase and Molecule Type, 2006–
Figure 8: Obesity Therapeutics Market: Global, Clinical Trial Size by Phase and Molecule Type, 2006–2013
Figure 9: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Failure and Attrition Rates by Phase and
Molecule Type, 2006–2013
Figure 10: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Clinical Trial Primary and Secondary Endpoints, 2006–2013
Figure 11: Heat Map Comparing the Safety and Efficacy of Marketed and Key Pipeline Drugs
Figure 12: Heat Map Comparing the Performance of Marketed and Key Pipeline Drugs in Major Safety
Figure 13: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Epidata and Market Forecasts, 2012–2019
Figure 14: Obesity Therapeutics Market, US, Epidata and Market Forecasts, 2012–2019
Figure 15: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Europe, Treatment Patterns, 2012–2019
Figure 16: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Europe, Annual Cost of Therapy, 2012–2019
Figure 17: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Europe, Market Forecasts, 2012–2019
Figure 18: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Japan, Epidata and Market Forecast, 2012–2019
Figure 19: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Status, Value and Number of Licensing Deals, 2006–2013
Figure 20: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Licensing Deals by Phase, Molecule Type and Value, 2006–
Figure 21: Obesity Therapeutics Market, Global, Status, Value and Number of Co-development Deals,
Figure 22: Obesity Market, Global, GBI Research Market Sizing Model

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