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Mortgages - UK - March 2013

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Mar 2013

Category :

Banking

No. of Pages : 137 Pages


There is a high degree of pent-up demand among prospective first-time buyers, with nearly 4 million UK adults looking to buy their first home over the coming year. However, with house prices still high relative to average earnings and tighter lending controls, for example in relation to income multiples and LTVs, the majority of these prospects will remain aspirational homeowners.
TABLE OF CONTENT

INTRODUCTION
Market definitions 
Abbreviations 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market 
A large target market 
New business crept up by the narrowest of margins in 2012… 
Figure 1: Forecast of gross new mortgage lending (at current prices), 2007-17 
driven by growth in the house purchase sector 
Figure 2: Gross mortgage lending, by type of loan, 2007-12
Varied performance by type of lender 
A cautious outlook, albeit with some encouraging signs 
Market factors 
Regulatory developments 
Conditions in the wider housing market 
Companies, brands and innovation 
Product innovation 
Mixed results for the top six lenders 
Figure 3: Market shares of the top six mortgage lenders, by gross advances, 2012 
Distribution mix: intermediaries start to wrestle back share 
Lenders cut back on advertising in 2012
The consumer 
Mortgage ownership falls 
Mintel’s consumer research: mortgage application intentions 
Figure 4: Mortgage application intentions within the next 12 months, December 2012 
The typical mortgage borrower and first-time buyer applicant 
The most sought-after product feature is a fixed interest rate 
Figure 5: Features most wanted from new mortgage product or provider, December 2012 
Mortgage debt-servicing behaviour by existing borrowers 
Sources used to research or arrange a mortgage
Figure 6: Sources expected to use when researching or arranging new mortgage/remortgage,
December 2012 
Expected house price movements 
Figure 7: Expected house price movement over the next year, by potential mortgage and
remortgage applicants, December 2012 
General attitudes towards buying and owning property 
Figure 8: Agreement with statements about buying and owning property, December 2012
What we think

ISSUES IN THE MARKET
Why is home ownership declining? 
And how are house prices contributing to the problem? 
So how much demand is there to buy property? 
What are the main implications of the MMR? 
What is the future for interest-only mortgages? 
How much competition is there in the market? 
What is the outlook for new mortgage lending?

TREND APPLICATION
Develop apps that motivate would-be buyers to save for their first home deposit 
Personalise the service to retain business 
Adapt mortgage terms to cater for increasing longevity 

MARKET DRIVERS
Key points 

REGULATION ROUND-UP
Key dates to note 
Financial crisis sparked the need for change 
Summary of the main MMR reforms 
Sensible measures, which most lenders have already adopted 
Interest-only loans permitted, in theory at least 
Arrears management 
Less emphasis on ‘generic’ disclosure, instead greater use of targeted information 
Second-charge loans will come under FCA remit
Other changes in the pipeline 

THE UK LENDING ENVIRONMENT
Market liquidity improves 
Lenders continue to see decent margins on new lending 
Figure 9: Bank of England base rate, three-month (monthly average) LIBOR and effective new
mortgage rate, January 2007-December 2012 
FLS prompts lenders to adjust their pricing of fixed-rate deals 
Mortgage approvals driven by lending for house purchase 
Figure 10: Number of quarterly mortgage approvals (seasonally adjusted), by type, Q1 2007-
Q4 2012 
Mortgage debt write-offs remain steady 
Figure 11: Quarterly write-offs of lending to individuals, by sector, Q1 2007-Q4 2012 
Decline in repossessions and number of mortgages in arrears 
Figure 12: Number of mortgage arrears (as at end of three-month period) and quarterly
repossessions, Q1 2009-Q4 2012 
SMI scheme extended to March 2015 

MACROECONOMIC AND WIDER HOUSING MARKET FACTORS
Economic backdrop: there is some cause for optimism 
Consumer sentiment languishes in negative territory 
Figure 13: GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer – UK, January 1989-January 2013 
Mortgage and house buying intentions increase 
Figure 14: Expected mortgage and property purchase activity, quarterly indices, Q3/Q4 2002-
Q4/Q1 2013 
House prices have broadly stabilised over the past two years 
Figure 15: Annual change in average UK house price – comparison of four sources, Q1 2007-
Q4 2012 
Housing transactions still running well below pre-crisis levels 
Figure 16: Number of UK residential property transactions with a value of £40,000 upwards –
seasonally adjusted, Q1 2007-Q4 2012 

TRENDS IN HOUSING TENURE
Key points 
Owner-occupied dwellings as a share of total housing stock have steadily declined since 2006 42
Figure 17: UK housing stock, by tenure, 1991-2011 

MARKET SWOT ANALYSIS
Figure 18: UK Mortgage market – SWOT analysis, 2013

WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points 
Mortgage availability improves, but there’s limited appetite for new product innovation 
Figure 19: Number of residential mortgage products available, by selected LTV, 2009-13 (selected
months) 
Lenders are starting to more aggressively target the first-time buyer market 
Some competition starts to seep into the market… 
and a few new entrants emerge 

MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points 
Gross new lending edged up slightly in 2012, while net lending declined 
Figure 20: Total secured lending, by gross and net advances (not seasonally adjusted), 2006-12 
Redemptions have fallen over the past two years 
Figure 21: Mortgage repayments, by type (not seasonally adjusted), 2006-12 
Mintel expects the market to recover steadily over the next five years 
Figure 22: Forecast of gross secured lending – fan chart, 2007-17 
Figure 23: Forecast of gross secured lending, at current and constant prices, 2012-17 
Forecast methodology 
Fan chart explanation 

SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points 
Mutuals significantly outperformed the banks in 2012 
Figure 24: Gross mortgage lending, by type of lender (not seasonally adjusted), 2006-12 
House purchase lending up 7% in 2012, but remortgage business fell 
Figure 25: Gross mortgage lending, by type of loan, 2006-12 
First-time buyer loans reached their highest level in five years 
Figure 26: Loans advanced for house purchase, by type of borrower, 2006-12 
Mortgage PSD trends 

MARKET SHARE
Key points 
Three of the top six lenders reduced their mortgage lending in 2012 
Figure 27: Top six mortgage lenders, by gross advances, 2010-12 
LBG’s overall share of the mortgage market had fallen to just under 26% at the end of 2012 
Figure 28: Top six mortgage lenders, by outstanding mortgage balances in the UK, 2011 and 2012 

COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
Barclays 
Figure 29: Key annual financial data for Barclays Plc, 2011 and 2012 
HSBC 
Figure 30: Key annual financial data for HSBC Bank Plc, 2011 and 2012 
Lloyds Banking Group 
Figure 31: Key annual financial data for Lloyds Banking Group, 2011 and 2012 
Nationwide Building Society
Figure 32: Key interim financial data for Nationwide Building Society, H1 2011 and H1 2012 
RBS/NatWest 
Figure 33: Key annual financial data for RBS Group, 2011 and 2012 
Santander
Figure 34: Key annual financial data for Santander UK, 2011 and 2012 

BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Key points 
Lenders reduced their advertising budgets in 2012 
Figure 35: Total advertising expenditure on mortgage products and services, 2008-12 
The largest share of industry adspend in 2012 went on brand building 
Figure 36: Advertising expenditure on mortgage products and services, by sub-product category,
2008-12 
Halifax was the leading mortgage advertiser in 2012 
Figure 37: Advertising expenditure on mortgage products and services (excluding equity release),
by top 15 advertisers, 2010-12 
Press and TV account for most of the industry’s adspend… 
Figure 38: Proportional distribution of mortgage adspend (excluding equity release), by media type,
2010-12 
but online advertising is growing in importance 

CHANNELS TO MARKET
Key points 
Intermediary share growing steadily 
Figure 39: Proportional distribution of regulated mortgage sales, by channel, 2007/08-2011/12 
Greater focus on ‘advised’ sales should help bolster the mortgage brokerage market

MORTGAGE OWNERSHIP TRENDS
Key points 
Mortgage penetration has declined steadily over the past decade 
Figure 40: Proportion of adults who have a mortgage, 2003-12 
The typical mortgage customer is aged 35-54
Figure 41: Mortgage penetration and profile of mortgage borrowers, by demographics, 2012 
Three quarters of mortgages are jointly held 
Figure 42: Mortgage held solely or jointly with another person, 2012 
Around three in five mortgage borrowers have held their mortgage for over five years
Figure 43: When mortgage was first taken out, 2008-12 
Around one in six have a mortgage term longer than 25 years 
Figure 44: Length of mortgage term, 2012 
First-time homeowners account for around two fifths of the market 
Figure 45: Proportion of borrowers whose current mortgage is for their first property, 2008-12 
Around one in six have an interest-only mortgage 
Figure 46: Type of mortgage held, 2008-12 
One in 13 mortgage holders are paying £1,000+ a month in mortgage repayments 
Figure 47: Value of monthly mortgage repayments, 2012 
The proportion of borrowers remortgaging has fallen over the past five years 
Figure 48: Proportion of mortgage borrowers who have remortgaged in the past year, 2008-12
Just under a quarter of borrowers have increased their mortgage debt 
Figure 49: Proportion of mortgage borrowers who have increased their mortgage debt, 2008-12 

MORTGAGE APPLICATION INTENTIONS
Key points 
Survey background 
Segmentation of sample by housing tenure 
Figure 50: Current housing tenure, December 2012 
Strong mortgage intentions indicate considerable pent-up demand 
Figure 51: Mortgage application intentions within the next 12 months, by current tenure, December
2012 

MOST DESIRABLE PRODUCT FEATURES
Key points 
Prospective applicants are keen on fixing their mortgage repayments 
Figure 52: Features most wanted from new mortgage product/provider, by type of home buyer,
December 2012 
The relative importance of different product features 
Figure 53: Relative importance of features among the five selected, December 2012 

SOURCES USED TO ASSIST PRODUCT SELECTION
Key points 
The internet has evolved into a valuable consumer research tool 
Figure 54: Sources expected to use when researching or arranging new mortgage/remortgage, by
type of home buyer, December 2012 
Mortgage prospects are more inclined to seek advice from their existing bank than a rival one 101

MORTGAGE REPAYMENT ACTIVITY
Key points 
A third of mortgage holders are striving to pay off their mortgage quicker 
Figure 55: Mortgage repayment and debt-servicing behaviour, December 2012 
A customer’s financial situation will heavily influence their ability to overpay and their
propensity to fall into arrears
Figure 56: Mortgage repayment and debt-servicing behaviour, by current financial situation,
December 2012 

ATTITUDES TOWARDS HOUSE PRICES AND BUYING PROPERTY
Key points 
Most people expect house prices to remain level in 2013 
Figure 57: Expected house price movement over the next year, by potential mortgage and
remortgage applicants, December 2012 
Over three quarters of UK adults think house prices remain ‘out of reach’ for most first-time
buyers 
Figure 58: Agreement with statements about buying and owning property, December 2012
Nearly two fifths of prospective applicants think they’d struggle to get a mortgage or
remortgage 
Figure 59: Agreement with statements about buying and owning property – by potential mortgage
applicants only, December 2012 

APPENDIX – MARKET FORECAST
Figure 60: Best and worst case forecasts for gross mortgage lending, 2012-17 
APPENDIX – CURRENT TENURE AND MORTGAGE APPLICATION INTENTIONS
Figure 61: Tenure, by demographics, December 2012 
Figure 62: Mortgage application intentions, by demographics, December 2012 

APPENDIX – MOST DESIRABLE PRODUCT FEATURES
Figure 63: Top six features most wanted from a mortgage product, by demographics, December
2012 

APPENDIX – SOURCES USED TO ASSIST PRODUCT SELECTION
Figure 64: Top five sources expected to use when researching or arranging mortgage/remortgage,
by demographics, December 2012 

APPENDIX – MORTGAGE REPAYMENT ACTIVITY
Figure 65: Mortgage repayment and debt-servicing behaviour, by demographics, December 2012

APPENDIX – ATTITUDES TOWARDS HOUSE PRICES AND BUYING PROPERTY
Figure 66: Expected house price movement over the next year, by demographics, December 2012 . 122
Figure 67: Proportion who agree with statements about owning property and getting a mortgage,
by demographics, December 2012 

UK RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Consumer research 
Sampling and weighting
Definitions 
Qualitative Research 
Trade research 
Informal 
Formal 
Desk research 
Statistical Forecasting 
European Research Methodology

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