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Juice, Juice Drinks and Smoothies - US - November 2015

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Nov 2015

Category :

Non-Alcoholic Drinks

No. of Pages : N/A

Total US retail sales of 100% juice, juice drinks, and smoothies are estimated to grow by less than 1% in 2015, continuing the flatlining seen in recent years. Strong growth in the small, smoothies segment, driven by positive health perception and consumer interest in healthy snacking, has tempered losses seen in the much larger 100% juice segment, and the stagnation of juice drink sales.

Table of Content

Overview

What you need to know
Definition

Executive Summary

The issues
Category sales stay flat in 2015; 4% growth 2010-15
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2010-20
Juice drinks and 100% juice lose share to smoothies
Figure 2: Segment share of total US retail sales of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, 2010-20
Indulgent kid-focused drinks see declines
The opportunities
A move away from shelf stable may boost juice drink/smoothie appeal
Figure 3: Share of segment sales, by storage, 2010-15
Clean label claims see strong growth
Figure 4: Smoothie launches, by top 10 leading claims, 2010-15*
Occasion-specific smoothie positioning may be in order
Figure 5: Share of smoothie launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*
What it means

The Market – What You Need to Know

Category sales stay flat in 2015; 4% growth 2010-15
Smoothie sales grow 120% 2010-15
Move away from shelf stable may be boosting juice drink/smoothie appeal
Juice/juice drink consumption on the decline
Retail smoothies compete with foodservice and homemade

Market Size and Forecast

Category sales stay flat in 2015; grow 4% overall 2010-15
Figure 6: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2010-20

Market Breakdown

Juice drinks and 100% juice lose share to smoothies
Figure 7: Segment share of total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, 2010-20
Smoothie sales grow 120% 2010-15
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
A move away from shelf stable may boost juice drink/smoothie appeal
Figure 9: Share of segment sales, by storage, 2010-15
Convenience stores and natural channels see strong category growth
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15

Market Perspective

Juice/juice drink consumption on the decline
Figure 11: Household consumption of juice/juice drinks, by type, 2011-2015
A range of non-alcoholic beverage categories experienced year-over-year growth in consumption
Figure 12: Any consumption in the past three months, by drink type, June 2014 and June 2015
Nutritional drinks see strong growth
Figure 13: Statements related to smoothies -- Meal, September 2015
Retail smoothies compete with foodservice and homemade
Figure 14: Smoothie purchase location (nets*), September 2015

Market Factors

2015 dietary guidelines link lack of vitamins/minerals to a rise in chronic diseases in the US
A healthy diet is seen as better than supplements for vitamin intake
Figure 15: Select attitudes toward vitamins, minerals, and supplements – any agree*, June 2015
Overweight/obesity rates remain an issue
Figure 16: National percent of adults aged 18+ who are obese or overweight, 2011-13
Figure 17: National percent of students in grades 9-12 who are obese or overweight, 2001-13
Snack habits can help drive category growth
Figure 18: Daily snacking frequency, January 2015
Households with children are important to the category, but wider appeal should be sought
Figure 19: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13

Key Players – What You Need to Know

Top three companies lose slight share, Coca-Cola stays on top
Clean label claims see growth
Indulgent kid-focused drinks see declines
Vegetable/savory flavors may broaden consumption occasion

Manufacturer Sales of Juice, Juice Drinks and Smoothies

Top three companies lose slight share, Coca-Cola stays on top
Figure 20: Share of sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015

What’s Working?

Clean label claims see strong growth
Figure 21: Smoothie launches, by top 10 leading claims, 2010-15*
Figure 22: MULO sales of juice drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Pepsico makes up half of smoothie sales and growing
Figure 23: MULO sales of smoothies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Coconut water continues to perform well
Figure 24: MULO sales of 100% juice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Stevia sees strong growth as juice drinks sweetener in natural channels
Figure 25: Share of natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by type of sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Probiotic claims on the rise
Figure 26: Share of natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by prebiotic and probiotic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Vegetable flavors up in 100% juice
Figure 27: Share of 100% juice launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*

What’s Struggling?

Indulgent kid-focused drinks see declines
Shelf-stable launches down
Figure 28: Share of 100% juice, juice drink and smoothie launches, by storage type, 2010-15*
Natural claims down in 100% juice
Figure 29: Share of 100% juice launches, by top 10 claims, 2010-15*
Traditional flavors lose share in natural channels
Figure 30: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by flavor, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15

What’s Next?

Occasion-specific smoothie positioning
Figure 31: Share of smoothie launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*
Savory flavors may appeal for lunch/dinner
International flavors and formats
Alcohol positioning can boost adult feel

The Consumer – What You Need to Know

100% juice leads consumption
Breakfast rules consumption occasion; opportunity for snack positioning/breakfast smoothies
A quarter of smoothie drinkers are interested in chunky mix-ins
Category may represent convenient health for parents

Consumption Occasion

100% juice leads as part of breakfast; opportunity for snack positioning
Figure 32: Select juice, juice drink, smoothie consumption occasions, September 2015
Millennials appear as a target across 100% juice occasions
Figure 33: Select 100% juice consumption occasions, by generation groups, September 2015
iGens look to juice drinks as snacks
Figure 34: Select juice drink consumption occasions, by generation groups, September 2015
Opportunity exists for stronger smoothie breakfast positioning
Figure 35: Select smoothie consumption occasions, by generation groups, September 2015
Hispanics view 100% juice as versatile
Figure 36: Select juice, juice drink, smoothie consumption occasions, by Hispanic, September 2015

Smoothie Format

Single-serving smoothies are most popular
Figure 37: Smoothie statements – Format, September 2015
Single-serving smoothies may appear as an affordable option
Figure 38: Smoothie statements – Format, by household income September 2015
Hispanics are more likely than average to drink shelf-stable smoothies
Figure 39: Smoothie statements – Format, by Hispanic origin, September 2015
Multi-serving smoothies popular for breakfast drinkers
Figure 40: Smoothie statements – Format, by consumption occasion, September 2015

Opinions toward Juice, Juice Drinks, and Smoothies

Juice drinks and shelf-stable smoothies suffer from poor health perceptions
Figure 41: Correspondence Analysis – Opinions toward juice, juice drinks and smoothies, September 2015
Figure 42: Opinions toward juice, juice drinks and smoothies, September 2015
Smoothies should aim at convenience positioning to target Millennials
Figure 43: Millennial opinions toward juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, September 2015

Smoothie Purchase Location

Mass leads retail purchase location
Figure 44: Smoothie purchase location, September 2015
Millennials less likely to make smoothies at home
Figure 45: Smoothie purchase location, by generation group, September 2015
Hispanics less likely to purchase smoothies at foodservice
Figure 46: Smoothie purchase location, by Hispanic origin, September 2015
Breakfast drinkers make smoothies at home; foodservice is for snacking
Figure 47: Smoothie purchase location, by consumption occasion, September 2015

Ideal Smoothie

Strawberries lead smoothie ingredients of interest
Figure 48: Ideal smoothie*, September 2015
More vegetables show up in Millennial smoothies, but so do indulgent mix-ins
Figure 49: Ideal smoothie* - Millennials, September 2015
Functional benefits, such as high protein, important among Hispanics
Figure 50: Ideal smoothie* - Hispanics, September 2015
Interest in function appears among consumers building healthy smoothies
Figure 51: Ideal smoothie* - Healthy smoothie, September 2015
Fruit of interest even among indulgent smoothie seekers
Figure 52: Ideal smoothie* - Indulgent smoothie, September 2015
Functionality desired for breakfast smoothies
Figure 53: Ideal smoothie* - breakfast smoothie, September 2015

Smoothie Innovation of Interest

A quarter of smoothie drinkers interested in chunky mix-ins
Figure 54: Statements related to smoothies – Innovation of interest, September 2015
International flavors may appeal to Millennial smoothie drinkers
Figure 55: Statements related to smoothies – Innovation of interest, by generation, September 2015
Chunky smoothies appeal for breakfast
Figure 56: Statements related to smoothies – Innovation of interest, by consumption occasion, September 2015

Custom Consumer Group: Households with Children

Parents significantly more likely than average to drink juice drinks and smoothies
Figure 57: Juice, juice drink, smoothie consumption, by households with children, September 2015
Category may represent convenient health for parents
Figure 58: Parent opinions toward juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, September 2015
Focus on convenience seen in parental smoothie purchase habits
Figure 59: Smoothie purchase location, by households with children, September 2015
Vitamin/mineral delivery may appeal to parents
Figure 60: Ideal smoothie* -- For giving to a child, September 2015

Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Correspondence map methodology
CHAID methodology
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations

Appendix – The Market

Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of 100% juice, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of 100% juice, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice drinks, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of smoothies, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of smoothies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 69: Sales of 100% juice, by storage, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 70: Sales of 100% juice, by format, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 71: Sales of juice drinks, by storage, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 72: Sales of juice drinks, by format, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 73: Sales of smoothies, by storage, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 74: US supermarket sales of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 75: US convenience store sales of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 76: US sales of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 77: Household consumption of juice/juice drinks, by type, 2011-2015
Figure 78: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks September 2013-September 2015
Figure 79: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by form, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Figure 80: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by brand positioning, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Figure 81: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by packaging, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Figure 82: Any consumption in the past three months, by drink type, June 2014 and June 2015

Appendix – Key Players

Figure 83: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by type of sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Figure 84: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by organic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Figure 85: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by prebiotic and probiotic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Figure 86: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by flavor, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Figure 87: sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 88: Share of 100% juice, juice drink and smoothie launches, by storage type, 2010-15*
Figure 89: Share of smoothie launches, by top 10 claims, 2010-15*
Figure 90: Share of 100% juice launches, by top 10 claims, 2010-15*
Figure 91: Share of juice drink launches, by top 10 claims, 2010-15*
Figure 92: Share of juice drink launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*
Figure 93: Share of smoothie launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*
Figure 94: Share of 100% juice launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*

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