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In-store Bakeries - US - March 2013

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Mar 2013

Category :

Bakery Products

No. of Pages : 141 Pages


A growing movement that calls for consumers to limit their intake of a number of key food ingredients, such as fat, sugar, sodium, and carbohydrates, thought to be harmful to one’s health, threatens in-store bakery sales as consumers feel pressure to cut back on indulgence. However, in-store bakeries have the opportunity to respond with innovative better-for-you alternatives that cater to consumers’ demand for both health and indulgence.
TABLE OF CONTENT

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know 
Definition 
Data sources 
Sales data 
Consumer survey data 
Abbreviations and terms 
Abbreviations 
Terms 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In-store bakeries continue to experience steady growth 
Figure 1: Total Number of in-store bakeries and average weekly sales per store, 2007-12 
Moderate sales growth expected through 2017
Figure 2: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2007-17 
Dessert dominates in-store bakery while bread struggles 
Figure 3: Total U.S. retail sales of in-store bakeries, by segment, 2007-17 
Market factors 
Increasing demand for local, fresh products will drive ISB sales 
Figure 4: Important retailer attributes, November 2012 
Employment drives demand for in-store bakery convenience 
Figure 5: Purchase in past year, by employment, November 2012 
ISBs face competition within and outside the grocery store 
Figure 6: Purchase frequency by bakery type, November 2012 
The in-store bakery consumer 
In-store bakeries particularly appealing to households with children 
Figure 7: Purchase in past year by bakery type, by presence of children in household, November 2012 
Better-for-you bakery goods appeal to Hispanics 
Figure 8: Consumer interest in new products, by Hispanic origin, November 2012 
Consumers prefer ISBs for quality superior to prepackaged goods 
Figure 9: Why consumers prefer in-store bakeries, November 2012 
New products offer opportunities for ISB growth 
Figure 10: Consumer interest in new products, by generation, November 2012 
What we think

ISSUES IN THE MARKET
How can in-store bakeries grow despite already high penetration? 
How can the category respond to demand for healthier food products? 
How will more food regulations affect in-store bakeries? 

INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
In-store bakeries that offer on-the-go and takeout experience… 
and dine-in ability for those who want to savor an eating experience 
New flavor trends may offer boost in quality perceptions 

TREND APPLICATIONS
Trend: Transumers 
Trend: Experience Is All 
2015 trend: Old Gold 

MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points 
In-store bakeries continue steady growth 
Sales and forecast of market 
Figure 11: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2007-17 
Figure 12: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17 
Figure 13: Number of in-store bakeries and average weekly sales per store, 2007-12 
Figure 14: Per household expenditures on in-store bakery products, at current prices, 2007-12 
Fan chart forecast 
Figure 15: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2007-17

MARKET DRIVERS
Key points 
In-store bakeries appeal to consumer demand for local and fresh
Figure 16: Important attributes, by gender, November 2012 
Busy lifestyles demand convenience that in-store bakeries offer 
Figure 17: Purchase in past year by bakery type, by employment, November 2012 
Declining consumer confidence may keep consumers at home 
Obesity worries threaten demand for bakery indulgences 
Higher prices create purchase barrier for some consumers 

COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Stand-alone bakeries offer higher perceived quality 
Figure 18: Purchase frequency by bakery type, November 2012
Consumers use bread/dessert aisle as much as in-store bakery 
At-home baking offers alternative to premade baked goods 

SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points 
Strong growth in three out of four segments drives category growth 
Sales of in-store bakeries, by segment 
Figure 19: U.S. retail sales of in-store bakery products, by segment, 2010 and 2012 

SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—DESSERTS
Key points 
Dessert segment grows 25.9% to continue category dominance 
Sales and forecast of desserts
Figure 20: Total U.S. retail sales of desserts at in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2007-17 

SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—BREAD AND ROLLS
Key points 
Bread and rolls suffer in comparison to other ISB segments 
Sales and forecast of bread and rolls 
Figure 21: Total U.S. retail sales of bread and rolls in in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2007-17 

SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—BREAKFAST BAKERY
Key points 
Breakfast bakery presents growth opportunity 
Sales and forecast of breakfast bakery 
Figure 22 : Total U.S. retail sales of breakfast bakery in in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2007-17 

MARKETING STRATEGIES
Overview of the in-store bakery landscape 
In-store bakery versus bakery in the store 
Treat of the month club stirs up interest 
Offering consumers authenticity 
Website and social media opportunities for in-store bakeries 
Kroger 
Walmart 
Hy-Vee 

BREAD AND BAKED GOODS CONSUMPTION
Key points 
Most households eat bread but usage drops with age 
Figure 23: Types of bread eaten in household, by age, April 2011-June 2012 
Figure 24: Household frequency use of bread, by age, April 2011-June 2012 
Figure 25: Types of bread eaten in household, April 2007-June 2012 
Popularity of breakfast options offers opportunity for bakeries 
Figure 26: Household consumption of selected breakfast items, by gender, April 2011-June 2012 
Home baking from packaged mixes popular among consumers 
Figure 27: Household usage of at-home baking mixes, dough, and crusts, by gender, April 2011-June 2012 
Figure 28: Mean usage of at home baking mixes, dough, and crusts in past 30 days, April 2011-June 2012 

IN-STORE BAKERY USAGE
Key points 
In-store bakery usage rivals bread/dessert/pastry aisle usage 
Figure 29: Purchase frequency, by bakery type, November 2012
Figure 30: Purchase in past year, by bakery type, by gender, November 2012 
Bakery goods hold stronger appeal to households with children 
Figure 31: Purchase in past year, by bakery type, by presence of children in household, November 2012 
Figure 32: Purchase in past year, by bakery type, by age, November 2012 

BAKERY ITEM PURCHASE BY OUTLET TYPE
Key points 
Sweets bought in in-store bakeries, bread in the grocery aisle 
Figure 33: Bakery item purchase, by outlet type, November 2012 
Sweet sales threatened by competition from traditional bakeries 
Figure 34: Sweet item purchase, by outlet type, November 2012 
Income plays a role in which in-store bakery is used 
Figure 35: Bakery item purchase, by outlet type, by household income, November 2012 

WHY CONSUMERS PREFER IN-STORE BAKERIES
Key points 
Quality sets in-store bakery apart from the bakery aisle 
Figure 36: Why consumers prefer in-store bakeries, November 2012 
Lackluster response to in-store bakery product taste and quality 
Draw of in-store bakery different for men, women 
Figure 37: Why consumers prefer in-store bakeries, by gender, November 2012

CONSUMER ATTITUDES ON IDEAL IN-STORE BAKERIES
Key points 
Consumers’ ideal in-store bakery has it all 
Figure 38: Products and services important to consumers, November 2012 
Men and women value different aspects of customer service 
Figure 39: Products and services important to consumers, by gender, November 2012 
Millennials over index on demand for all in-store bakery characteristics
Figure 40: Products and services important to consumers, by generation, November 2012 

CONSUMER INTEREST IN NEW PRODUCTS
Key points 
Whole grain tops list of new product traits consumers want 
Figure 41: Consumer interest in new products, by household income, November 2012 
Introduction of new types of products may attract nonusers 
Figure 42: Consumer interest in new products, by purchase in past year, by bakery type, November 2012 
Breakfast solutions offer opportunity to expand in-store bakery reach 
Figure 43: Consumer interest in new products, by generation, November 2012 

POTENTIAL PROMOTIONAL OPPORTUNITIES
Key points 
Consumers not overly interested in any single bakery promotion 
Figure 44: Promotional activity, November 2012 
Promotions more likely to persuade consumers with children 
Figure 45: Promotional activity, by presence of children in household, November 2012 
Younger consumers more receptive to promotions, especially online 
Figure 46: Promotional activity, by age, November 2012 

CHAID ANALYSIS OF IN-STORE BAKERY PROMOTIONS
Methodology
Service - and health-oriented non-Hispanics most receptive to promotion 
Figure 47: In-store bakeries—CHAID—Tree output, November 2012 
Figure 48: Promotional activities of in store bakeries—CHAID—Table output, November 2012 

RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points 
Asians/Pacific Islanders most likely to go elsewhere for baked goods
Figure 49: Bakery item purchase, by outlet type, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2012 
Figure 50: Why consumers prefer in-store bakeries, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2012 
Better-for-you and breakfast bakery goods more appealing to Hispanics 
Figure 51: Consumer interest in new products, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2012 
Hispanics, Asians/Pacific Islanders best to target with online marketing 
Figure 52: Promotional activity, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2012

APPENDIX: MARKET DRIVERS
Consumer confidence 
Figure 53: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2007-13
Food cost pressures 
Figure 54: Changes in USDA Food Price Indexes, 2010-13 
Obesity 
Figure 55: U.S. Obesity, by age group, 2008 and 2012 
Childhood and teen obesity—highest in decades
Figure 56: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1971-2010
Racial, ethnic population growth 
Figure 57: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2008, 2013, and 2018 
Figure 58: Households with children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2012 
Shifting U.S. demographics 
Figure 59: Population, by age, 2007-17 
Figure 60: Households, by presence of own children, 2002-12 
Unemployment 
Figure 61: U.S. Unemployment Rate, by month, 2002-13
Figure 62: U.S. Unemployment and underemployment rates, 2007-13 
Figure 63: Number of employed civilians in U.S., in thousands, 2007-13 

APPENDIX: OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES
Figure 64: Purchase frequency, by bakery type, November 2012
Figure 65: Purchase frequency, by bakery type, by age, November 2012 
Figure 66: Purchase frequency, by bakery type, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2012 
Figure 67: Purchase in past year, by bakery type, by gender, November 2012 
Figure 68: Purchase in past year, by bakery type, by age, November 2012 
Figure 69: Purchase in past year, by bakery type, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2012 
Figure 70: Purchase in past year, by bakery type, by region, November 2012 
Figure 71: Bakery item purchase, by outlet type, by gender, November 2012 
Figure 72: Bakery item purchase, by outlet type, by age, November 2012 
Figure 73: Bakery item purchase, by outlet type, by gender and age, November 2012 
Figure 74: Bakery item purchase, by outlet type, by household size, November 2012 
Figure 75: Bakery item purchase, by outlet type, by presence of children in household, November 2012 
Figure 76: Bakery item purchase, by outlet type, by parents and children and age, November 2012 
Figure 77: Breads purchase, by outlet type, by gender, November 2012
Figure 78: Breads purchase, by outlet type, by age, November 2012 
Figure 79: Breads purchase, by outlet type, by household income, November 2012 
Figure 80: Breads purchase, by outlet type, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2012 
Figure 81: Breads purchase, by outlet type, by presence of children in household, November 2012 
Figure 82: Breads purchase, by outlet type, by generation, November 2012 
Figure 83: Sweets purchase, by outlet type, by age, November 2012 
Figure 84: Sweets purchase, by outlet type, by household income, November 2012 
Figure 85: Sweets purchase, by outlet type, by Hispanic origin, November 2012 
Figure 86: Sweets purchase, by outlet type, by presence of children in household, November 2012 
Figure 87: Sweets purchase, by outlet type, by generation, November 2012 
Figure 88: Consumer interest in new products, November 2012 
Figure 89: Consumer interest in new products, by gender, November 2012
Figure 90: Consumer interest in new products, by age, November 2012 
Figure 91: Consumer interest in new products, by presence of children in household, November 2012 
Figure 92: Why consumers prefer in-store bakeries, by household income, November 2012 
Figure 93: Why consumers prefer in-store bakeries, by generation, November 2012 
Figure 94: Why consumers prefer in-store bakeries, by bakery item purchase, by outlet type, November 2012 
Figure 95: Why consumers prefer in-store bakeries, by bakery item purchase, by outlet type, November 2012 
Figure 96: Promotional activity, by gender, November 2012 
Figure 97: Promotional activity, by household income, November 2012 
Figure 98: Promotional activity, by generation, November 2012 
Figure 99: Promotional activity, by purchase in past year, by bakery type, November 2012 
Figure 100: Products and services important to consumers, by age, November 2012 
Figure 101: Products and services important to consumers, by household income, November 2012 
Figure 102: Products and services important to consumers, by Hispanic origin, November 2012 
Figure 103: Products and services important to consumers, by presence of children in household, November
2012 
Figure 104: Promotional activity, by products and services important to consumers, November 2012 

APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

APPENDIX: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

CONSUMER RESEARCH
Primary Data Analysis 
Sampling 
Global Market Insite (GMI) 
Secondary Data Analysis 
Experian Simmons National Consumer Studies 
Statistical Forecasting 
Statistical modelling 
Qualitative insight 
The Mintel fan chart 
Weather analogy 

APPENDIX: WHAT IS MINTEL?
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