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Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties - US - July 2016

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Jul 2016

Category :

Ice Cream

No. of Pages : N/A

As volume sales in the saturated category decline, dollar gains have cooled. While health leads reasons for cutting back, sales of traditionally health-focused products (including low- fat/calories) struggle, and indulgence appears as a strong purchase driver. Category players can aim at health through cues such as natural, premium, and whole, positioning the products as being both good tasting and good for you.

Table of Content

Overview

What you need to know
Definition

Executive Summary

The issues
Dollar sales hold as volume sales decline
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen treats, at current prices, 2011-21
22% of frozen treat buyers are buying less
Figure 2: Frozen treat statements – Change in consumption, April 2016
Frozen yogurt brands are experiencing a meltdown
Figure 3: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen treats, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
The opportunities
A focus on quality can appeal to both the taste and health interests of key consumers
Figure 4: Frozen treat statements – Premium – Agree, by generation, April 2016
Smaller formats appeal to target consumers
Figure 5: Frozen treat types – Format, by generation April 2016
Variety can boost engagement
Figure 6: Frozen treat statements – Flavor – Agree, by generation, April 2016
What it means

The Market – What You Need to Know

Volume sales decline by 5% 2011-15, little dollar sales change
Ice cream makes up half of category sales
Frozen yogurt brands are experiencing a meltdown
Foodservice offerings have higher perception of premium

Market Size and Forecast

Volume sales decline by 5% 2011-15, little dollar sales change
Figure 7: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of frozen treats, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen treats, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen treats, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 10: MULO volume sales of frozen treats, 2011-15

Market Breakdown

Ice cream makes up half of category sales
Figure 11: Total US retail sales of frozen treats, by segment, at current prices, 2016
Gelato continues to grow, but strong growth patterns may soon thaw
Figure 12: Total retail sales of gelato and gelato-based novelties, at current prices, 2011-16
Figure 13: Frozen treat launches, by gelato, 2012-16
Sherbet segment sees overall declines
Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen treats, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
Volume sales decline in all segments at MULO
Figure 15: MULO volume sales of frozen treats, by segment, 2011-15

Market Perspective

Store purchase outpaces foodservice
Figure 16: Purchase location, April 2016
Ice cream shops lead perception of premium
Figure 17: Perceptions of premium, April 2016
22% of frozen treat buyers are buying less
Figure 18: Frozen treat statements – Change in purchase, April 2016
Half of consumers who are buying less are doing so for health reasons
Figure 19: Frozen treat statements – Change in purchase, by purchasing less, April 2016
Health categories make a play for indulgence

Market Factors

Health concerns remain top of mind with consumers
Figure 20: Important to achieve good health – Any top three rank, May 2015
Most adults believe it’s better to eat well than use diet products
Figure 21: Agreement that well-rounded diet is better than diet products, current diet status, July 2015
FDA reveals updated nutrition facts panel
Safety concerns creep in among key consumer groups
Figure 22: Frozen treat statements – Safety, by generation, April 2016
Figure 23: Frozen treat statements – Safety, by generation and Hispanic origin, April 2016
Figure 24: Frozen treat statements – Safety, by parental status, April 2016
Non-dairy may be one solution to easing fears
Figure 25: Frozen treat statements – Safety, by non-dairy purchase, April 2016

Key Players – What You Need to Know

Unilever maintains the top spot in MULO sales of frozen treats
Blue Bell disappears from the leader board
Indulgence performs well in novelties
Sorbet to the rescue

Company Sales of Frozen Treats

Unilever maintains the top spot
Nestlé also sees sales gains
Blue Bell disappears from the leader board
Dean Foods boosts ice cream investment
Company sales of frozen treats
Figure 26: Company sales of frozen treats, 52-weeks ending March 20, 2016
Leading companies strengthen their lead
Figure 27: Company sales of frozen treats, 52-weeks ending March 20, 2016

What’s Working?

Unilever brands continue to gain steam
Figure 28: “Häagen-Dazs, ‘äah Vanilla,’” online video, April 2016
Figure 29: “Tweets to the Dairy – ‘She looks like a tub of Mint Chocolate Chip,’” online video, April 2016
Figure 30: “‘It's Complicated’ – Turkey Hill makes life simpler for complicated Facebook users,” online video, October 2015
Figure 31: MULO sales of ice cream/frozen dairy dessert by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Indulgence performs well in frozen novelties segment
Figure 32: MULO sales of frozen novelties, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Organic comes close to surpassing nonorganic in natural channels
Figure 33: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
Figure 34: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by fat content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
Figure 35: Ice cream consumption, by type, 2011-15
Figure 36: Frozen yogurt consumption, by type, 2011-15

What’s Struggling?

Sherbet, sorbet, ices segment declines; sorbet to the rescue
Figure 37: MULO sales of sherbet, sorbets, and ices, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Flavor innovation may also help the segment
Figure 38: Sherbet, sorbet, ices launches, by leading flavors, 2016*
Frozen yogurt brands experience a meltdown, non-dairy could put the freeze on losses
Figure 39: MULO sales of frozen yogurt and non-dairy, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Frozen dairy desserts decline
Figure 40: Total retail sales of ice cream/frozen dairy dessert, by type, at current prices, 2011-16
Non-dairy makes up more than a quarter of natural channel sales
Figure 41: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending April 17, 2016

What’s Next?

Implying health without restriction
Fresh
Clean
Taking the focus off of sugar
Function
Sense of place
Doubling down on indulgence
Buttermilk mentions are on the rise
Encouraging trial through new flavors and formats

The Consumer – What You Need to Know

Category experiences high consumer penetration
Premium positioning is more likely to imply good taste than health
The majority of frozen treat buyers are doing so in half-gallon sizes
Flavor dominates purchase drivers
Health plays a role for 19% of frozen treat buyers

Frozen Treat Purchase

Category experiences high consumer penetration
Figure 42: Frozen treat purchase – Any purchase location – Nets, April 2016
Ice cream leads purchase, some change in participation seen
Figure 43: Frozen treat purchase – Any purchase location, April 2016
Younger adults are key targets
Figure 44: Frozen treat purchase – Any purchase location, by generation, April 2016
Hispanics are more likely than non-Hispanics to purchase all products
Figure 45: Frozen treat purchase – Any purchase location, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
Gelato appears most cost prohibitive
Figure 46: Frozen treat purchase – Any purchase location, by HH income, April 2016
Parents are significantly more likely to purchase frozen treats
Figure 47: Frozen treat purchase – Any purchase location, by parental status, April 2016
Figure 48: Frozen treat consumption – Kids (aged 6-11), 2011-15
Figure 49: Frozen treat consumption – Teens (aged 12-17), 2011-15

Frozen Treat Types

Close to a third of frozen treat buyers purchase store brands
Low-/no- claims falling out of favor
Non-dairy purchase small, but growing
Figure 50: Frozen treat types, April 2016
Millennials appear most likely to accept store brands as premium
Figure 51: Frozen treat types, by generation, April 2016
Health-focused options retain strength among Hispanics
Figure 52: Frozen treat types, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
Premium positioning is more likely to imply good taste than health
Figure 53: Frozen treat statements – Premium – Agree, April 2016
…but key consumers are more likely to associate premium with health
Figure 54: Frozen treat statements – Premium – Agree, by generation, April 2016
Figure 55: Frozen treat statements – Premium – Agree, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
Key driver analysis: Premium purchase
Figure 56: Key drivers of premium/luxury frozen treat purchase format, April 2016

Frozen Treat Flavor

The majority of frozen treat buyers purchase single flavors
Figure 57: Frozen treat types – Flavor, April 2016
Consumers are open to variety
Figure 58: Frozen treat statements – Flavor – Agree, April 2016
Variety particularly appeals to Millennials
Figure 59: Frozen treat statements – Flavor – Agree, by generation, April 2016
Hispanics are ripe for frozen treat introductions
Figure 60: Frozen treat statements – Flavor – Agree, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
Lower-income earners stick with what they know
Figure 61: Frozen treat statements – Flavor – Agree, by HH income, April 2016
Snackers are open to variety
Figure 62: Frozen treat statements – Flavor – Agree, by occasion, April 2016

Frozen Treat Format

The majority of frozen treat buyers are doing so in half-gallon sizes
Figure 63: Frozen treat types – Format, April 2016
Smaller formats appeal to younger shoppers
Figure 64: Frozen treat types – Format, by generation April 2016
Pints don’t have strong appeal among Hispanics
Figure 65: Frozen treat types – Format, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
Small sizes particularly appeal to premium shoppers
Figure 66: Frozen treat types – Format, by presence of children, April 2016
Variety appeals to parents
Figure 67: Frozen treat types – Format, by presence of children, April 2016
Small formats give consumers a helping hand
Figure 68: Frozen treat statements – Small format, April 2016

Frozen Treat Purchase Drivers

Flavor dominates purchase decision, indulgence outperforms health
Rethinking health
Figure 69: Frozen treat purchase drivers, April 2016
Flavor is of particular appeal to older shoppers
Figure 70: Frozen treat purchase drivers, by generation, April 2016
Hispanics are less influenced by price, more interested in natural
Figure 71: Frozen treat purchase drivers, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
Interest in premium directly correlates with income
Figure 72: Frozen treat purchase drivers, by HH income, April 2016
Parents prioritize quality over price
Figure 73: Frozen treat purchase drivers, by presence of children, April 2016
Store brand buyers are price conscious
Figure 74: Frozen treat purchase drivers, by type, April 2016
A third of frozen treat buyers are willing to pay more for natural
Figure 75: Frozen treat statements – Natural, April 2016
…even more so among Millennials and Hispanics
Figure 76: Frozen treat statements – Natural, by generation, April 2016
Figure 77: Frozen treat statements – Natural, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
Natural products appeal to those with safety concerns
Figure 78: Frozen treat purchase drivers, by safety statements, April 2016
Local lacks a strong draw
Figure 79: Frozen treat statements – Local, April 2016

Frozen Treat Consumption

40% of frozen treat buyers eat the products weekly
Figure 80: Frozen treat statements – Agree – Weekly consumption, April 2016
Variety ties to consumption frequency
Figure 81: Frozen treat format – Any purchase, by consumption frequency, April 2016
Figure 82: Frozen treat statements, by consumption frequency, April 2016
Dessert leads consumption occasion, snack consumption grows
Figure 83: Frozen treat consumption occasion, April 2016
Figure 84: Frozen treat format – Any purchase, by consumption occasion, April 2016
Dessert seekers want indulgence and natural products
Figure 85: Frozen treat purchase drivers, by consumption occasion, April 2016

Role of Health

Health plays a role for 19% of frozen treat buyers
Figure 86: Frozen treat statements – Role of health, April 2016
Millennials are most likely to say health factors into purchase decision
Figure 87: Frozen treat statements – Role of health, by generation, April 2016
Health plays a role for nearly a third of Hispanics
Figure 88: Frozen treat statements – Role of health, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
Health plays a stronger role in the purchase decision of higher earners
Figure 89: Frozen treat statements – Role of health, by HH income, April 2016
A quarter of parents consider health in frozen treat purchase
Figure 90: Frozen treat statements – Role of health, by parental status, April 2016
Hispanic parents are twice as likely to consider health in their purchase
Figure 91: Frozen treat statements – Role of health, by Hispanic origin and parental status, April 2016

Appendix: Data Sources and Abbreviations

Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Key Driver Analysis
Figure 92: Key drivers of premium/luxury frozen treat purchase format – Key driver output, April 2016
Abbreviations
Abbreviations

Appendix: Market

Figure 93: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream/frozen dairy dessert, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 94: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream/frozen dairy dessert, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 95: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 96: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 97: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 98: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 99: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet/sorbet/ices, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 100: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet/sorbet/ices, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 101: MULO volume sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, 2011-15
Figure 102: MULO volume sales of ice cream and frozen dairy desserts, 2011-15
Figure 103: MULO volume sales frozen novelties, 2011-15
Figure 104: MULO volume sales frozen yogurt/non-dairy, 2011-15
Figure 105: MULO volume sales sherbet/sorbet/ices, 2011-15
Figure 106: US supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2011-16
Figure 107: US convenience store sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2011-16
Figure 108: US sales of ice cream and frozen novelties through other retail channels, at current prices, 2011-16
Figure 109: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
Figure 110: Natural supermarket sales of organic ice cream, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
Figure 111: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by gluten-free labeling/certification, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
Figure 112: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by gluten-free labeling/certification, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
Figure 113: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by GMO ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
Figure 114: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by “natural” labeling or perception, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
Figure 115: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by presence of alternative sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
Figure 116: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by probiotic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016

Appendix: Key Players

Figure 117: Manufacturer sales of frozen treats, 52-weeks ending March 20, 2016
Figure 118: Total retail sales of gelato and gelato-based novelties, at current prices, 2011-16
Figure 119: Frozen treat launches, by gelato, 2012-16
Figure 120: Ice cream launches, by leading claims, 2012-16
Figure 121: Ice cream launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16
Figure 122: Frozen novelty launches, by leading claims, 2012-16
Figure 123: Frozen novelty launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16
Figure 124: Frozen yogurt launches, by leading claims, 2012-16
Figure 125: Frozen yogurt launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16
Figure 126: Sherbet, sorbet, ices launches, by leading claims, 2012-16
Figure 127: Sherbet, sorbet, ices launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16
Figure 128: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
Figure 129: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
Figure 130: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by fat content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
Figure 131: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by lactose-free labeling, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
Figure 132: Total retail sales of ice cream and frozen dairy desserts, by type, at current prices, 2011-16
Figure 133: Ice cream consumption, by type, 2011-15
Figure 134: Frozen yogurt consumption, by type, 2011-15

Appendix: Consumer

Figure 135: Mean quarts of ice cream/sherbet consumed, 2011-15
Figure 136: Frozen treat consumption – Teens (aged 12-17), 2011-15
Figure 137: Frozen treat consumption – Kids (aged 6-11), 2011-15

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