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Future of the Libyan Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022

Published By :

Strategic Defence Intelligence

Published Date : Jun 2017

Category :

Defense and Security

No. of Pages : 84 Pages

Future of the Libyan Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022

Summary

The Future of Libya Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Synopsis

This report offers detailed analysis of Libya defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -
- Libya defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of Libya defense industry during 2018-2022, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the countrys expenditure and modernization patterns
- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
- Porters Five Force analysis of Libya defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the countrys imports and exports over the last five years
- Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years
- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of Libya defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Scope

- The Libyan defense industry, valued at US$2.7 billion in 2017, is anticipated to record a CAGR of 4.88% over the forecast period, to reach US$3.3 billion by 2022. Libya is focusing on reconstructing and strengthening its security forces after the 2011 revolution, during which the people successfully overthrew one of the longest dictatorial regimes which spanned over four decades. This has resulted in a substantial increase initially in the military expenditure of the country.
- During 2013-2017, revenue expenditure accounted for an average of 82.5% of the total Libyan defense expenditure, and the remaining 17.5% was spent on procuring equipment and services. The implementation of budget cuts and reform measures, such as the suspension of new procurement programs resulted in low defense spending over the historic period. The Libyan MoD is trying to procure multi-role and fighter aircraft transport aircraft helicopters, armored vehicles, transport aircraft, battle tanks, radar and imaging systems, and other advanced equipment, which will result in a significant rise in its defense capital expenditure during 2018-2022.
- The MoD is expected to invest in transport helicopters, personel weapons, and soft body armor.

Reasons to buy

- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of Libyan defense industry market trends for the coming five years
- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
- Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
- A deep qualitative analysis of Libya defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porters Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts
Table of Contents
1. Introduction 7
1.1. What is this Report About? 7
1.2. Definitions 7
1.3. Summary Methodology 9
1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence 11
2. Executive Summary 12
3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 14
3.1. Current Market Scenario 15
3.1.1. Primary threat perception 15
3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy 16
3.1.3. Military Fleet Size 17
3.1.4. Procurement Programs 20
3.1.5. Ongoing procurement programs 20
3.1.6. Future procurement programs 21
3.1.7. Social, Political and Economic Environment & Support for Defense Projects 22
3.1.8. Political & Strategic Alliances 23
3.1.9. Libyan defense budget anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 4.88% during 2018-2022 25
3.1.10. Rebuilding of the armed forces and replacing aging military equipment are the major factors driving Libyan defense expenditure 27
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 29
3.2.1. The majority of Libyas defense budget is allocated for revenue expenditure 29
3.2.2. Capital expenditure expected to increase at a CAGR of 5.60% over 2018-2022 31
3.2.3. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP to increase during the forecast period 33
3.2.4. Per capita defense expenditure set to increase over the forecast period 35
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 36
3.3.1. Political stalemate and increased terrorism, border security, and internal disputes form the main components of homeland security expenditure 36
3.3.2. Libya considered as highly effected country due to terror activities 38
3.3.3. Libya faces high level of threat from foreign terrorist organizations 39
3.3.4. Libya faces significant threat from terrorists 41
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 42
3.4.1. Libyan defense budget expected to register growth over the period 2016-2020 42
3.4.2. Libyan defense expenditure is small compared to the leading spenders 44
3.4.3. Libya spent 5% of its GDP on defense in 2017 45
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers 46
3.5.1. Transport Helicopters 46
3.5.2. Personnel Weapons 47
3.5.3. Soft Armor 48
4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 49
4.1. Import Market Dynamics 50
4.1.1. Defense imports are expected to increase during the forecast period 50
4.1.2. Russia was the leading supplier of arms to Libya during 2012-2016 51
4.1.3. Missiles constitute the majority of Libyan arms imports 52
4.2. Export Market Dynamics 53
4.2.1. Libyan defense exports market is negligible 53
5. Industry Dynamics 54
5.1. Five Forces Analysis 54
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: medium to low 55
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: medium 55
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium 55
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: medium 55
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low to medium 55
6. Market Entry Strategy 56
6.1. Market Regulation 56
6.1.1. Arms Embargo in Libya 56
6.1.2. Libya has not disclosed any offset policy 56
6.2. Market Entry Route 57
6.2.1. Budgeting Process 57
6.2.2. Procurement Policy & Process 58
6.2.3. Foreign Military Sale (FMS) is the preferred entry route 59
6.3. Key Challenges 60
6.3.1. Underdeveloped domestic industry and internal instability discourages foreign participation 60
6.3.2. Unemployment and scarcity of skilled labor 60
7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 61
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 61
7.2. Key Foreign Companies 62
7.2.1. Lockheed Martin: overview 62
7.2.2. Lockheed Martin: products and services 62
7.2.3. Lockheed Martin: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 62
7.2.4. Lockheed Martin: alliances 64
7.2.5. Lockheed Martin: recent contract wins 64
7.2.6. Finmeccanica: overview 65
7.2.7. Finmeccanica: products and services 65
7.2.8. Finmeccanica: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 66
7.2.9. Finmeccanica: alliances 67
7.2.10. Finmeccanica: recent contract wins 68
7.2.11. KBP Instrument Design Bureau - overview 69
7.2.12. KBP Instrument Design Bureau - major products and services 69
7.2.13. KBP Instrument Design Bureau - recent announcements and strategic initiatives 70
7.2.14. KBP Instrument Design Bureau - recent contract wins 71
8. Business Environment and Country Risk 72
8.1. Economic Performance 72
8.1.1. GDP per capita at constant prices 72
8.1.2. GDP at current prices (US$ Billion) 73
8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services (LCU bn) 74
8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Bn) 75
8.1.5. LCU per US$ (period average) 76
8.1.6. Goods exports as a percentage of GDP 77
8.1.7. Goods imports as a percentage of GDP 78
8.1.8. Services Imports as a percentage of GDP 79
8.1.9. Service Exports as a percentage of GDP 80
8.1.10. Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ billions) 81
8.1.11. Foreign direct investment, as Percentage of GDP 82
8.1.12. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ billion) 83
9. Appendix 84
9.1. About SDI 84
9.2. Disclaimer 84

List of Tables
Table 1: Army Equipment in Libya 17
Table 2: Libyan Navy Strength 18
Table 3: Aircrafts in Libya 19
Table 4: Libya - Ongoing Procurement Programs 20
Table 5: Libya - Future Procurement Programs 21
Table 6: Libyan Defense Expenditure (LYD Billion and US$ Billion), 2013-2022 25
Table 7: Libyan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2022 29
Table 8: Libyan - Defense Capital Expenditure (LYD Billion and US$ Billion), 2013-2022 31
Table 9: Libyan - GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP, 2013-2022 33
Table 10: Libyan per capita defense expenditure (US$), 2013-2022 35
Table 11: Terrorism Index, 2017 39
Table 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2013-2017 vs. 2018-2022 42
Table 13: Libyan Budget Formation Timetable: 57
Table 17: Competitive Landscape of the Libyan Defense Industry 61
Table 14: Lockheed Martin - product focus 62
Table 15: Lockheed Martin - Alliances 64
Table 16: Lockheed Martin - Recent Contract Wins 64
Table 17: Finmeccanica - Product Focus 65
Table 18: Finmeccanica - Alliances 67
Table 19: Finmeccanica- Recent Contract Wins 68
Table 20: KBP Instrument Design Bureau - Major Products & Services 69
Table 21: KBP Instrument Design Bureau - recent contract wins 71

List of Figures
Figure 1: Libyan Defense Expenditure (LYD Billion), 2013-2022 26
Figure 2: Libyan Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 26
Figure 3: Libyan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2022 30
Figure 4: Libyan - Defense Capital Expenditure (LYD Million), 2013-2022 32
Figure 5: Libyan - Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2013-2022 32
Figure 6: Libyan GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2013-2022 34
Figure 7: Libyan per capita defense expenditure (US$), 2013-2022 35
Figure 8: Terrorism Heat Map, 2017 38
Figure 9: Terrorism Index, 2017 41
Figure 10: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2013-2017 vs. 2018-2022 43
Figure 11: Benchmarking with Worlds Largest Defense Spenders (US$ Billion), 2017 and 2022 44
Figure 12: Benchmarking with Large Defense Spenders as % of GDP - 2017 45
Figure 13: Transport Helicopter Market (US$ Million), 2017-2027 46
Figure 14: Personal Weapons Market (US$ Million), 2017-2027 47
Figure 15: Soft Armor Market (US$ Million), 2017-2027 48
Figure 16: Libyan Defense Imports (US$ million), 2012-2016 50
Figure 17: Libyan Defense Imports by Country (%), 2012-2016 51
Figure 18: Libyan Defense Imports by Category, 2012-2016 52
Figure 19: Industry Dynamics - Porters Five Forces Analysis 54
Figure 20: Libyan GDP Per Capita at Constant Prices (US$), 2015-2025 72
Figure 21: Libyan GDP at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015-2025 73
Figure 22: Libyan Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 74
Figure 23: Libyan Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Bn), 2005-2014 75
Figure 24: Libya- LCU per US$ (period average), 2015-2024 76
Figure 25: Libya- Goods exports as a % of GDP (%), 2005-2013 77
Figure 26: Libya- Goods imports as a % of GDP (%), 2005-2013 78
Figure 27: Libyan Services Imports as a % of GDP (%), 2005-2013 79
Figure 28: Libyan Service Exports as a % of GDP (%), 2005-2013 80
Figure 29: Libya- Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ billion), 2005-2013 81
Figure 30: Libya- Foreign direct investment, % GDP, 2005-2013 82
Figure 31: Libyan Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU billion), 2005-2014 83

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