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Future of the Chinese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2018

Strategic Defence Intelligence
Published Date » 2013-03-18
No. Of Pages » 123

Product Synopsis

This report is the result of SDI's extensive market and company research covering the Chinese defense industry, and provides detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values including key growth stimulators, analysis of the leading companies in the industry, and key news.

Introduction and Landscape

Why was the report written?

Future of the Chinese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2018 offers the reader an insight into the market opportunities and entry strategies adopted by foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to gain market share in the Chinese defense industry.

What is the current market landscape and what is changing?

A fast growing economy combined with the objective of becoming a superpower nation fuelled China's defense expenditure growth during the review period. Disputes over borders and territories, and military modernization are expected to drive the country's future military spending, which is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.9% over the forecast period. Police modernization, expenditure on securing borders, and investment in security infrastructure propel the homeland security budget to surpass the country's defense budget, and is expected to cross US$200 billion mark by 2018. China's philosophy “Prosperous nation, strong military” drives its efforts in building a large military force to rival the best armies in the world, which in turn drives the country's defense budget.

What are the key drivers behind recent market changes?

Territorial disputes and investments in military modernization will drive China's defense expenditure. China is involved in various disputes over rights to islands in the East China Sea and South China. In 2012, the dispute between the country and Japan over rights to the Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea intensified the tensions between the two countries. Both countries increased their military forces and patrol around these islands, fuelling the tensions. In addition, China is also involved in disputes over the rights to islands in South China Sea with the Philippines and Vietnam. Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei also have conflicting claims in the South China Sea, making the area a source of a potential military showdown. Such disputes and potential threats are expected to drive China's defense expenditure over the forecast period, which is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 11.9%.

What makes this report unique and essential to read?

The Future of the Chinese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2018 provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2014 to 2018, including highlights of key growth stimulators. It also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.

Key Features and Benefits

  • The report provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2014 to 2018, including highlights of key growth stimulators, and also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.
  • The report includes trend analysis of imports and exports, together with their implications and impact on the Chinese defense industry.
  • The report covers five forces analysis to identify various power centers in the industry and how these are expected to develop in the future.
  • The report allows readers to identify possible ways to enter the market, together with detailed descriptions of how existing companies have entered the market, including key contracts, alliances, and strategic initiatives.
  • The report helps the reader to understand the competitive landscape of the defense industry in the China. It provides an overview of key defense companies, both domestic and foreign, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.

Key Market Issues

  • The Chinese defense industry is controlled by the government, and restrictions on private and foreign companies dampen the competition in the industry. A lack of competition diminishes the need for innovation in defense equipment and related technology advancement. Barring a few industrial enterprises, the majority of organizations fail to compete with each other, which impedes the development of China's modern indigenous defense industry as there is no incentive for companies to innovate. Furthermore, some of China's industrial-defense enterprises form business relationships based on long-standing political ties with regions and provinces. As a result, the country fails to gain access to technological innovations and advancements in foreign countries.
  • A major obstacle to investment in the Chinese defense industry is the arms embargo imposed by the US and other European countries, following the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. During the review period, some European states have proposed the lift of the arms ban, but the US and Japan have opposed this proposal due to fears that it will enable China to enhance its military capabilities. As a result, China's defense industry is unable to acquire sophisticated military hardware from the US or Western European countries, and this hampers the development of its military-industrial complex.

Key Highlights

  • China is involved in various disputes over rights to islands in the East China Sea and South China. In 2012, the dispute between the country and Japan over rights to the Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea intensified the tensions between the two countries. Both the countries increased their military forces and patrol around these islands, fuelling the tensions. In addition, China is also involved in disputes over the rights to islands in the South China Sea with Philippines and Vietnam. Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei also have conflicting claims in the South China Sea, making the area a source of a potential military showdown. Such disputes and potential threats are expected to drive China's defense expenditure over the forecast period, which is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 11.9%.China's ambition to dominate the world's political, military, and cultural outlook drives its efforts to rival the best military forces in the world. As such, the country has focused on modernizing its defense capabilities through the acquisition of advanced foreign weapons, significant investments in its domestic industrial technology, and upgrading its strategic nuclear force.
  • As Chinese homeland security is threatened by internal conflicts such as protests of separatist groups from Tibet, Taiwan, and Xinjiang, illegal immigration, and human trafficking, the country's spending on policing and domestic surveillance of these areas surpass the nation's military budget. Furthermore, the country's authoritarian regime makes use of several homeland security technologies, such as networked surveillance cameras, biometric identification cards and facial recognition software, in order to prevent mass protests.
  • In order to improve its military weapons power, missiles and aircraft were the major imported products accounting for 55.5% of total defense imports. Air defense systems and engines followed them with 19.8% and 16.1% respectively of total imports. The country is focusing on improving the capabilities of nationalized companies and also inviting foreign companies to form joint ventures in non-strategic defense areas. China is hoping to use the technology obtained from these joint ventures in developing defense equipment by its nationalized and local companies. Such orientation towards procurement of defense equipment from local companies indicates towards the reduction of defense imports.
Table of Content

1 Introduction
1.1 What is this Report About?
1.2 Definitions
1.3 Summary Methodology
1.4 SDI Terrorism Index
1.5 About Strategic Defence Intelligence

2 Executive Summary

3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1 Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1 Chinese defense expenditure is expected to register a double digit growth rate over the forecast period
3.1.2 Territorial disputes and investments on military modernization will drive China's defense expenditure
3.1.3 China's economic growth fuelled its defense expenditure
3.2 Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1 Capital expenditure allocation expected to hover around one third of total defense budget
3.2.2 Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase during the forecast period
3.2.3 China's military procurement is expected increase at a CAGR of XX% over the forecast period
3.3 Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1 Chinese homeland security is expected to cross US$XX billion by 2018
3.3.2 Internal conflicts will drive the Chinese homeland security spending
3.3.3 China falls under “low risk” of terrorism category
3.4 Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1 China will be third fastest growing defense spender among the largest defense spenders globally
3.4.2 China to remain second among countries with largest defense budgets in the world
3.4.3 China allocates lower share of GDP for defense compared to US and other European countries
3.4.4 China faces minimal threat from foreign terrorist organizations
3.5 Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
3.5.1 Homeland Security Infrastructure
3.5.2 Police modernization
3.5.3 Cyber Security
3.5.4 Counter terrorism
3.5.5 Border Security
3.5.6 Air-to-Air Missiles
3.5.7 Multi mission and Rescue Helicopters
3.5.8 Fighters and Multi-role Aircraft:

4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1 Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1 Defense imports are expected to remain low over the forecast period
4.1.2 Russia account for the majority of Chinese defense imports
4.1.3 Missiles, aircraft and air defense systems are most imported military hardware
4.2 Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1 Defense exports are expected to grow over the forecast period
4.2.2 Pakistan account for major portion of Chinese low-cost defense equipment exports
4.2.3 Chinese low-cost aircraft and armored vehicle exports expected to increase

5 Industry Dynamics
5.1 Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1 Bargaining power of supplier: low to high
5.1.2 Bargaining power of buyer: medium to high
5.1.3 Barriers to entry: high
5.1.4 Intensity of rivalry: low
5.1.5 Threat of substitution: low

6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1 Market Regulation
6.1.1 The Chinese military-industrial complex opens up to private sector participation
6.1.2 Defense industry remains closed to foreign direct investment
6.2 Market Entry Route
6.2.1 Foreign technology finds its way into Chinese defense industry through the dual base economy
6.3 Key Challenges
6.3.1 Lack of innovation and competition continues to hamper the performance of the Chinese defense industry
6.3.2 Arms embargo imposed by the US and European countries

7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1 Competitive Landscape Overview
7.1.1 State-owned enterprises are the only major players in China's defense industry
7.1.2 Foreign technology enters the Chinese defense market by supplying civil use products
7.2 Key Domestic Companies
7.2.1 Aviation Industry Corporation of China: overview
7.2.2 Aviation Industry Corporation of China: products and services
7.2.3 Aviation Industry Corporation of China: recent announcement and strategic initiatives
7.2.4 Aviation Industry Corporation of China: alliances
7.2.5 China Electronics Technology Group Corporation: overview
7.2.6 China Electronics Technology Group Corporation: products and services
7.2.7 China Electronics Technology Group Corporation: recent announcement and strategic initiative
7.2.8 China Electronics Technology Group Corporation: alliances
7.2.9 China Electronics Technology Group Corporation: recent contract wins
7.2.10 China National Nuclear Corporation: overview
7.2.11 China National Nuclear Corporation: products and services
7.2.12 China National Nuclear Corporation: recent announcement and strategic initiatives
7.2.13 China National Nuclear Corporation: alliances
7.2.14 China National Nuclear Corporation: recent contract wins
7.2.15 China Xinshidai Company: overview
7.2.16 China Xinshidai Company: products and services
7.2.17 China Xinshidai Company: recent announcement and strategic initiatives
7.2.18 China Xinshidai Company: alliances
7.2.19 China Nuclear Energy and Construction: overview
7.2.20 China Nuclear Energy and Construction: products and services
7.2.21 China Nuclear Energy and Construction: recent announcement and strategic initiatives
7.2.22 China Nuclear Energy and Construction: alliances
7.2.23 China North Industries Corporation: overview
7.2.24 China North Industries Corporation: products and services
7.2.25 China North Industries Corporation: recent announcement and strategic initiatives
7.2.26 China North Industries Corporation: alliances
7.2.27 China North Industries Corporation: recent contract wins
7.2.28 China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation: overview
7.2.29 China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation: products and services
7.2.30 China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation: recent announcement and strategic initiatives
7.2.31 China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation: overview
7.2.32 China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation: products and services
7.2.33 China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation: recent announcement and strategic initiatives
7.2.34 China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation: alliances
7.2.35 China State Shipbuilding Corporation: overview
7.2.36 China State Shipbuilding Corporation: products and services
7.2.37 China State Shipbuilding Corporation: recent announcement and strategic initiatives
7.2.38 China National Electronics Import and Export Corporation: overview
7.2.39 China National Electronics Import and Export Corporation: products and services
7.2.40 China National Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation: overview
7.2.41 China National Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation: products and services
7.2.42 China National Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation: recent announcement and strategic initiatives

8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1 Demographics and Social Statistics
8.1.1 Population - Rural
8.1.2 Population - Urban
8.1.3 Number of Households
8.2 Economic Performance
8.2.1 Gross Domestic Product per Capita
8.2.2 Gross Domestic Product per Capita (Current US$ Bn)
8.2.3 Exports of goods and services (current US$)
8.2.4 Imports of goods and services (current US$ Bn)
8.2.5 Consumer Price Index
8.2.6 Local Currency Unit per US$
8.2.7 Local Currency Unit per Euro
8.2.8 Lending rate (%)
8.2.9 Deposit rate (%)
8.2.10 Real Interest Rate (%)
8.2.11 Market Capitalization of Listed companies (US$ bn)
8.2.12 Market Capitalization of Listed companies (% of GDP)
8.2.13 Goods Exports as a % of GDP
8.2.14 Goods Imports as a % of GDP
8.2.15 Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit (as % of GDP)
8.2.16 Services Imports (as % of GDP)
8.2.17 Services Exports (as % of GDP)
8.2.18 Services Trade Surplus/Deficit (as a % of GDP)
8.2.19 Net Foreign Direct Investment
8.2.20 Net FDI as a % of GDP
8.2.21 International reserves including Gold
8.2.22 External Debt (US$ Bn)
8.2.23 External Debt as a % of GDP
8.3 Energy and Utilities
8.3.1 Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Generation
8.3.2 Hydroelectricity Net Generation
8.3.3 Nuclear Electricity Net Generation
8.3.4 Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity
8.3.5 Total Electricity Exports
8.3.6 Total Electricity Imports
8.3.7 Proved Reserves of Natural Gas
8.3.8 Total Petroleum Consumption
8.3.9 Crude Oil Proved Reserves
8.3.10 Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation
8.4 Infrastructure Quality and Availability
8.4.1 Rail lines (total route-km)
8.4.2 Air transport, Freight
8.4.3 Overall Construction
8.5 Minerals
8.5.1 Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output
8.6 Technology
8.6.1 Transparency Index
8.7 Telecommunications
8.7.1 Telephone Lines
8.7.2 Telephone Lines Penetration

9 Appendix
9.1 About SDI
9.2 Disclaimer

List of Tables


Table 1: Chinese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2009-2013 
Table 2: Chinese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2018 
Table 3: Chinese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2009-2013 
Table 4: Chinese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2018 
Table 5: Chinese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),      2009-2013 
Table 6: Chinese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),     2014-2018 
Table 7: Chinese per capita defense expenditure (US$), 2009-2013 
Table 8: Chinese per capita defense expenditure (US$), 2014-2018 
Table 9: Chinese Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2009-2013 
Table 10: Chinese Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2018 
Table 11: Chinese Homeland Security Budget, 2009-2013 
Table 12: Chinese Homeland Security Budget, 2014-2018 
Table 13: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2008-2012 vs. 2013-2017 
Table 14: SDI Terrorism Index 
Table 15: Chinese Military-Industrial Complex - Competitive Landscape 
Table 16: Aviation Industry Corporation of China - Product focus 
Table 17: Aviation Industry Corporation of China - Alliances 
Table 18: China Electronics Technology Group Corporation - Product focus 
Table 19:  China Electronics Technology Group Corporation - Alliances 
Table 20:  China Electronics Technology Group Corporation - Recent Contract Wins 
Table 21:  China National Nuclear Corporation - Product focus 
Table 22:  China National Nuclear Corporation - Alliances 
Table 23: China National Nuclear Corporation - Recent Contract Wins 
Table 24: China Xinshidai Company - Product focus 
Table 25:  China Xinshidai Company - Alliances 
Table 26: China Nuclear Energy and Construction - Product focus 
Table 27:  China Nuclear Energy and Construction - Alliances 
Table 28: China North Industries Corporation - Product focus 
Table 29: China North Industries Corporation - Alliances 
Table 30: China North Industries Corporation - Recent Contract Wins 
Table 31: China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation - Product focus 
Table 32: China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation - Product focus 
Table 33: China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation - Alliances 
Table 34: China State Shipbuilding Corporation - Product focus 
Table 35: China National Electronics Import and Export Corporation - Product focus 
Table 36: China National Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation - Product focus

List of Figures


Figure 1: Chinese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2008-2012 
Figure 2: Chinese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2017 
Figure 3: Chinese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as  Percentage of GDP Growth, 2009-2013 
Figure 4: Chinese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as  Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2018 
Figure 5: Chinese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),     2009-2013 
Figure 6: Chinese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),    2014-2018 
Figure 7: Chinese per capita defense expenditure (US$), 2008-2012 
Figure 8: Chinese per capita defense expenditure (US$), 2014-2018 
Figure 9: Chinese Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2009-2013 
Figure 10: Chinese Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2018 
Figure 11: Chinese Homeland Security Budget, 2009-2013 
Figure 12: Chinese Homeland Security Budget, 2014-2018 
Figure 13: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2011 
Figure 14: SDI Terrorism Index, 2011 
Figure 15: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2007-2011 vs. 2012-2016 
Figure 16: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 
Figure 17: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2011 
Figure 18: Homeland Security Infrastructure Market Size in China (US$ Billion), 2013-2023 
Figure 19: Police Modernization Market Size in China (US$ Billion), 2013-2023 
Figure 20: Cyber Security Market Size in China (US$ Billion), 2013-2023 
Figure 21: Counter Terrorism Market Size in China (US$ Billion), 2013-2023 
Figure 22: Border Security Market Size in China (US$ Billion), 2013-2023 
Figure 23: Air-to-Air Missiles Market Size in China (US$ Billion), 2013-2023 
Figure 24: Multi mission and Rescue Helicopters Market Size in China (US$ Billion), 2013-2023 
Figure 25: Fighters and Multi-role Aircraft Market Size in China (US$ Billion), 2013-2023 
Figure 26: Chinese Defense Import Trend, 2007-2011 (TIV values) 
Figure 27: Chinese Defense Imports by Country (%), 2007-2011 
Figure 28: Chinese Defense Imports by Category (%), 2007-2011 
Figure 29: Chinese Defense Exports Trend, 2007-2011 (TIV values) 
Figure 30: Chinese Defense Imports by Country (%), 2007-2011 
Figure 31: Chinese Defense exports by Category (%),2007-2011 
Figure 32: Industry Dynamics Porter's Five Forces Analysis 
Figure 33: Chinese Population - Rural (In Millions), 2008-2017 
Figure 34: Chinese Population - Urban (In Millions), 2008-2017 
Figure 35: Chinese Number of Households 2008-2017 
Figure 36: Chinese GDP per Capita, 2008-2017 
Figure 37: Chinese GDP Current US$ (US$ Billion), 2008-2017 
Figure 38: Chinese Exports of goods and services (current US$ Bn), 2002-2011 
Figure 39: Chinese Imports of goods and services (US$ Billion), 2002-2011 
Figure 40: Chinese Consumer Price Index, 2008-2017 
Figure 41: Chinese LCU per US$, 2008-2017 
Figure 42: Chinese LCU per Euro, 2008-2017 
Figure 43: Chinese Lending rate (%), 2002-2011 
Figure 44: Chinese Deposit Rate, 2001-2010 
Figure 45: Chinese Real Interest Rate (%), 2002-2011 
Figure 46: Chinese Market Capitalization of listed companies (US$ Billion), 2002-2011 
Figure 47: Chinese Market Capitalization of listed companies as a % of GDP, 2002-2011 
Figure 48: Chinese Goods Exports as a % of GDP, 2002-2011 
Figure 49: Chinese Goods Imports as a % of GDP, 2002-2011 
Figure 50: Chinese Goods Trade, 2002-2011 
Figure 51: Chinese Services Imports (as a % of GDP), 2002-2011 
Figure 52: Chinese Services Exports (as a % of GDP), 2002-2011 
Figure 53: Chinese Services Trade surplus/deficit as a % of GDP, 2002-2011 
Figure 54: Chinese FDI (current US$ bn), 2002-2011 
Figure 55: Chinese Net FDI as a % of GDP, 2002-2011 
Figure 56: Chinese international reserves, including gold (US$ Bn), 2002-2011 
Figure 57: Chinese external debt (US$ Bn), 2001-2010 
Figure 58: Chinese external debt as a % of GDP, 2001-2010 
Figure 59: Chinese Conventional Thermal Electricity Generation (Bn KWH), 2001-2010 
Figure 60: Chinese Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Bn KWH), 2001-2010 
Figure 61: Chinese Nuclear Electricity net generation (Bn Kwh), 2001-2010 
Figure 62: Chinese Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Bn Kwh), 2001-2010 
Figure 63: Chinese Total Electricity Exports (Bn Kwh), 2001-2010 
Figure 64: Chinese Total Electricity Imports (Bn Kwh), 2001-2010 
Figure 65: Chinese proved reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Ft), 2002-2011 
Figure 66: Chinese Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2002-2011 
Figure 67: Chinese Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Bn Barrels), 2002-2011 
Figure 68: Chinese Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Bn Kwh), 2001-2010 
Figure 69: Chinese Rail lines (total route-km), 2001-2010 
Figure 70: Chinese Air transport, freight (million ton-km), 2001-2010 
Figure 71: Chinese Overall Construction (US$ Bn), 2007-2016 
Figure 72: Chinese Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ Bn), 2001-2010 
Figure 73: Chinese Patents granted, 2002-2011 
Figure 74: Chinese Telephone Lines (in Mn), 2001-2010 
Figure 75: Chinese Telephone lines penetration rate (per 100 people), 2002-2011

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