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Craft Beer - US - October 2015

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Oct 2015

Category :

Beer

No. of Pages : N/A

As beer sales stagnate, craft is a small bright spot preventing a loss of share to wine and spirits. Mintel estimates craft growth in 2015, and continued growth through 2020, though at a slowing rate.

Table of Content

Overview

What you need to know
Definition

Executive Summary

The issues
Sales of craft beer projected to grow 22% in 2015
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast craft beer, at current prices, 2010-20
Craft beer consumption small, but growing
Figure 2: Craft beer consumption, 2011-15
“Small” appears as a key association with craft beer
Figure 3: How consumers define craft*, July 2015
The opportunities
Craft gains on regular domestic consumption, can challenge others
Figure 4: Beer consumption, by type, 2011-15
Craft could stand to lighten up
Figure 5: Select factors influencing beer purchase*, by craft beer consumption, July 2015
Craft beer drinkers are less likely to be brand loyal
Figure 6: Statements related to beer – Brand, by craft beer consumption, July 2015
What it means

The Market – What You Need to Know

Sales of craft beer projected to grow 22% in 2015
Craft nearly doubles its share of the beer market 2009-14
Craft gains on regular domestic consumption, can challenge others
Category launches up 24% 2010-15
Buyouts by big beer impact market growth

Market Size and Forecast

Sales of craft beer projected to grow 22% in 2015
Figure 7: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast craft beer, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 8: Total US volume sales of craft beer, 2010-14

Market Breakdown

Strong growth in sales across both breweries and brewpubs
Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of craft beer, by segment, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 10: Beer consumption, by consumption location, July 2015
Craft breweries and brewpubs continue to come online
Figure 11: US regional craft breweries, microbreweries, and brewpubs operating, 2010-14

Market Perspective

Craft nearly doubles its share of the beer market 2009-14
Figure 12: Consumption of beer, by category (%), 2009 and 2014
Craft gains on regular domestic consumption, opportunity to aim at imported/premium
Figure 13: Beer consumption, by type, 2011-15
Craft launches up 24% 2010-15
Figure 14: Craft launches as percentage of total beer launches, 2010-15*
Buyouts by big beer impact market growth

Market Factors

Beer leads alcohol sales
Figure 15: Share of beverage alcohol sales (%), by type, 2013-14
Consumers are becoming more knowledgeable about beer
Figure 16: Statements related to beer – Knowledge, by generation group, July 2015
Key Players – What You Need to Know

Yuengling and Boston Beer lead craft sales
Number six craft brand in 2014 likely not classified as craft in 2015
Environmental and limited edition claims see strong craft launch growth
Flavored craft is on the rise
Craft may be extending beer consumption throughout the year

Manufacturer Sales of Craft Beer

Yuengling and Boston Beer lead craft sales
A new entry in the market
Heavy players lighten up
Acquisitions change the landscape
Growth through expanded distribution
Figure 17: Sales of 50 leading craft beer companies (top 10 and others [11-50])*, by volume, 2014
Figure 18: 50 leading craft beer companies (top 10 and others [11-50])*, by volume share, 2013 and 2014

What’s Working?

Environmental and limited edition claims see strong craft launch growth
Figure 19: Craft beer launches, by top 10 claims, 2011-15*
Flavored craft on the rise
Figure 20: Craft beer launches, by top nine flavors, 2011-15*
Craft may be extending beer consumption throughout the year
Figure 21: Beer sales, by month, share of total, 2013-14

What’s Next?

Craft could stand to lighten up
Touring the world through American craft

The Consumer – What You Need to Know

Craft beer consumption is on the rise
Who is the craft beer consumer?
Craft brands would do well to communicate their smallness
Craft beer drinkers are particularly interested in style
Craft drinkers are more likely than average to like to explore and share

Craft Beer Consumption

Craft beer consumption grows from 14% in 2011 to 19% in 2015
Figure 22: Craft beer consumption, 2011-15
The craft beer gender gap is smaller than that of beer overall
Figure 23: Beer consumption, any location (net)* by type**, by gender, July 2015
Millennials could be lured to craft through product variety and tracking
Figure 24: Beer consumption, any location (net)* by type**, by generation group, July 2015
Price may exclude some, but craft style doesn’t wow for affordability
Figure 25: Beer consumption (any location net*), by household income, July 2015
Hispanic interest in craft doesn’t match interest in beer, but it’s growing
Figure 26: Beer consumption (any location net*), by Hispanic origin, July 2015
Figure 27: Select beer consumption, by Hispanic origin, 2011-15
Craft beer drinkers are open to non-craft
Figure 28: Statements related to beer – Consumption, July 2015
Beer drinkers are more judgmental than non-drinkers about craft drinkers

Defining Craft

Majority says craft beer can be brewed anywhere, but domestic rules
Figure 29: Defining craft beer – Brewery location, July 2015
Large beverage companies don’t carry strong craft association
Figure 30: Defining craft beer – Company type, July 2015
Beer drinkers think the big guys can produce craft, but don’t need to
Figure 31: Statements related to beer – Large companies brewing craft, July 2015
Craft drinkers are less particular about brewery location
Figure 32: Defining craft beer – Brewery Location, by craft beer consumption, July 2015
…but are more particular about company type
Figure 33: Defining craft beer – Company type, by craft beer consumption, July 2015
Craft drinkers are less likely to trust the quality of large companies, but are opening to seeing them try
Figure 34: Statements related to beer – Large companies brewing craft, by craft beer consumption, July 2015
Hispanics are more likely to define craft as locally made
Figure 35: Defining craft beer – Brewery Location, by Hispanic origin, July 2015
and produced by an independent brewery
Figure 36: Defining craft beer – Company type, July 2015
While Hispanics might not trust the big guy, they’re willing to see him try
Figure 37: Statements related to beer – Large companies brewing craft, by Hispanic origin July 2015
“Small” appears as a key association with craft beer
Figure 38: How consumers define craft*, July 2015

Identifying Craft Brands

MillerCoors brand leads for craft identity
Figure 39: Identifying craft brands, July 2015
Craft beer drinkers no more likely to be able to identify craft beer
Figure 40: Identifying craft brands, by craft beer consumption, July 2015
Hispanics are most likely to identify imports as craft
Figure 41: Identifying craft brands, by Hispanic origin July 2015
Flavor range plays a role in identifying craft

Opinions toward Beer Types

Craft moves beer beyond casual
Perception of craft quality varies depending on who you ask
Figure 42: Correspondence analysis – Opinions toward beer types, July 2015
Figure 43: Opinions toward beer type, July 2015
Craft drinkers say craft leads for quality, but isn’t easy to find
Figure 44: Select opinions toward beer styles* among craft beer drinkers, by beer style, July 2015
Non-craft drinkers may be swayed to trial for special occasions
Figure 45: Select opinions toward beer styles* among non-craft beer drinkers, by beer style, July 2015
Domestic beer wins for quality and versatility among Hispanics
Figure 46: Select opinions toward select beer styles* among Hispanics, by beer style, July 2015

Factors Influencing Purchase

Craft beer drinkers are particularly interest in style, local positioning
Larger brands attempt a local feel
Craft drinkers are more likely to turn to reviews and recommendations
Figure 47: Select factors influencing beer purchase*, by craft beer consumption, July 2015
Style seekers identify IPA, lager, and ale as typical styles consumed
Figure 48: Typical styles consumed*, July 2015
Purchase motivation varies across generation groups
Figure 49: Select factors influencing beer purchase*, by generation group, July 2015
Craft can appeal to Hispanics through sharing and sense of place
Figure 50: Select factors influencing beer purchase*, by Hispanic origin, July 2015
Craft can appeal through environmental focus
Figure 51: Lifestyle statements – Environment, by beer style consumed, 2015

Statements Related to Beer

Craft drinkers claim more knowledge, but still like to explore
Figure 52: Statements related to beer – General, by craft beer consumption, July 2015
Millennials ripe for engagement, grassroots promotion
Figure 53: Statements related to beer – General, by generation group, July 2015
Hispanics are a strong audience for trial and social sharing
Figure 54: Statements related to beer – General, by Hispanic origin, July 2015
Craft beer drinkers are less likely to be brand loyal
Figure 55: Statements related to beer – Brand, by craft beer consumption, July 2015
Figure 56: Statements related to beer – Style, by craft beer consumption, July 2015
Millennials are less likely to be brand loyal, more likely to tie beer with image
Figure 57: Statements related to beer – Brand, by generation group, July 2015
Figure 58: Statements related to beer – Style, by generation group, July 2015
Hispanics are most likely to brand hop, but identify meaning with brand
Figure 59: Statements related to beer – Brand, by Hispanic origin, July 2015
Figure 60: Statements related to beer – Style, by Hispanic origin, July 2015

Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Correspondence map methodology
CHAID methodology
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations

Appendix – The Market

Figure 61: Total US sales and forecast of craft beer, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 62: Total US sales and forecast of craft beer, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 63: Total US volume sales of craft beer, 2010-14
Figure 64: Total US sales and forecast of craft breweries, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of brewery-produced craft beer, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 66: Total US sales and forecast of craft beer at brewpubs, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 67: Total US sales and forecast of craft beer at brewpubs, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 68: US regional craft breweries, microbreweries, and brewpubs operating, 2010-14
Figure 69: Consumption of beer, by category (2.25-gallon cases), 2009-14
Figure 70: Beer consumption, by type, 2011-15
Figure 71: Craft beer launches as percentage of total beer launches, 2011-15*
Figure 72: Beverage alcohol sales, by type, 2013-14

Appendix – Key Players

Manufacturer sales of craft beer
Figure 73: Leading craft beer companies*, by volume, 2013 and 2014
Figure 74: Craft beer launches, by top 10 claims, 2011-15*
Figure 75: Craft beer launches, by top nine flavors, 2011-15*
Figure 76: Beer sales, by month, share of total, 2013-14

Appendix – The Consumer

Figure 77: Select beer consumption, by Hispanic origin, 2011-15
Figure 78: Lifestyle statements – Environment, by beer style consumed, 2015
Figure 79: Beer drinking location – CHAID – Table output, July 2015
Figure 80: Per capita consumption of craft beer, by state, 2013-14
Figure 81: Craft share of total beer consumption, by state, 2013

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