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Cost of Power Generation - Renewables Compete with Conventional Alternatives as the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) is driven down by Technological Developments and Mass Deployments

GBI Research
Published Date » 2013-04-01
No. Of Pages » 95
     
  Cost of Power Generation Renewables Compete with Conventional Alternatives as the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) is driven down by Technological Developments and Mass Deployments  
     
  Summary  
   
 GBI Research, a leading business intelligence provider, has released its latest research, “Cost of Power Generation Renewables Compete with Conventional Alternatives as the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) is driven down by Technological Developments and Mass Deployments”. This report gives an in-depth analysis of the cost of power generation, levelized cost of electricity for different power generating technologies, both renewable and conventional, in six major countries like the US, China, India, Germany, the UK and Australia between 2011 and 2020....
Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 6
1.1 List of Tables 8
1.2 List of Figures 9

2 Introduction 11

3 Levelized Cost of Energy 12
3.1 Levelized Cost of Energy, Overview 12
3.2 Retail Cost, Levelized Cost of Electricity and Grid Parity 13
3.3 Components of Cost of Power Generation 15
3.3.1 Overnight Capital Cost 16
3.3.2 Fuel Cost 17
3.3.3 Operations and Maintenance Costs 17
3.3.4 Financing Cost 17
3.3.5 Capacity Factor 18
3.3.6 Discount Rates 18

4 Factors Impacting the Cost of Power Generation 19
4.1 Technology Learning Effect 19
4.2 CO2 Lifecycle Emissions and the Cost Price 19
4.2.1 Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions 19
4.2.2 Global Initiatives to Reduce Carbon Footprint 21
4.2.3 Evolution of Carbon Trading Market 22
4.2.4 Emission Trading 23
4.3 Capacity Factor 24
4.4 Fuel Prices 24

5 Factors Impacting Electricity Prices 25
5.1 Structural Costs 25
5.2 Cost of Carbon 25
5.3 Grid Extension 26
5.4 Tariff Subsidies 26
5.5 Fuel Subsidies 26

6 Levelized Cost of Electricity, Market Dynamics 27
6.1 Key Trends 27
6.1.1 LCOE for Solar PV to Decline at a Significant Rate during Forecast Period 27
6.1.2 Fluctuating Fuel Costs and Increasing Capital Costs of Conventional Technologies are Enhancing the Competitiveness of Renewable Technologies 28
6.1.3 Grid Parity is Becoming a Reality 28

7 Power Market Scenario in Major Countries, 2012–2020 29
7.1 Power Market, Global, Cumulative Installed Capacity, 2012–2020 29
7.2 Power Market, the US, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Levelized Cost of Electricity, 2012–2020 31
7.2.1 Power Market, the US, Cumulative Installed Capacity, by Technology, 2012–2020 31
7.2.2 Power Market, the US, Levelized Cost of Electricity, by Technology, 2012–2020 33
7.3 Power Market, China, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Levelized Cost of Electricity, 2012–2020 34
7.3.1 Power Market, China, Cumulative Installed Capacity, by Technology, 2012–2020 34
7.3.2 Power Market, China, Levelized Cost of Electricity, by Technology, 2012–2020 36
7.4 Power Market, India, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Levelized Cost of Electricity, 2012–2020 37
7.4.1 Power Market, India, Cumulative Installed Capacity, By Technology, 2012–2020 37
7.4.2 Power Market, India, Levelized Cost of Electricity, by Technology, 2012–2020 39
7.5 Power Market, Germany, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Levelized Cost of Electricity, 2012–2020 40
7.5.1 Power Market, Germany, Cumulative Installed Capacity, by Technology, 2012–2020 40
7.5.2 Power Market, Germany, Levelized Cost of Electricity, by Technology, 2012–2020 42
7.6 Power Market, the UK, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Levelized Cost of Electricity, 2012–2020 43
7.6.1 Power Market, the UK, Cumulative Installed Capacity, by Technology, 2012–2020 43
7.6.2 Power Market, the UK, Levelized Cost of Electricity, by Technology, 2012–2020 44
7.7 Power Market, Australia, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Levelized Cost of Electricity, 2012–2020 45
7.7.1 Power Market, Australia, Cumulative Installed Capacity, by Technology, 2012–2020 45
7.7.2 Power Market, Australia, Levelized Cost of Electricity, by Technology, 2012–2020 47

8 Power Market, Cost of Power Generation, Comparative Analysis in Major Countries 48
8.1 Power Market, Levelized Cost of Electricity Range, Comparative Analysis, By Technology, 2012 48
8.1.1 Power Market, the US, Levelized Cost of Electricity Range, by Technology, 2012 48
8.1.2 Power Market, China, Levelized Cost of Electricity Comparison, by Technology 49
8.1.3 Power Market, India, Levelized Cost of Electricity Range, by Technology, 2012 50
8.1.4 Power Market, Germany, Levelized Cost of Electricity Range, by Technology, 2012 51
8.1.5 Power Market, the UK, Levelized Cost of Electricity Range, by Technology, 2012 52
8.1.6 Power Market, Australia, Levelized Cost of Electricity Range ($/kWh), By Technology, 2012 53
8.2 Renewable Power Market, Levelized Cost of Electricity, by Country, 2012 54
8.2.1 Biomass Power Market, Global, Levelized Cost of Electricity in Major Countries 54
8.2.2 Solar PV Power Market, Global, Levelized Cost of Electricity in Major Countries, 2011–2020 61
8.2.3 Wind Power Market, Global, Levelized Cost of Electricity in Major Countries, 2011–2020 69
8.3 Thermal Power Market, Levelized Cost of Electricity, by Country, 2012 77
8.3.1 Coal-fired Power Market, Global, Levelized Cost of Electricity in Major Countries, 2011–2020 77
8.3.2 Gas-fired Power Market, Global, Levelized Cost of Electricity in Major Countries, 2011–2020 84

9 Appendix 91
9.1 Market Definition 91
9.1.1 Technologies Covered 91
9.1.2 Geographies Covered 91
9.1.3 Major Definitions 91
9.2 Assumptions 92
9.3 Abbreviations 92
9.4 References 93
9.5 Methodology 93
9.5.1 Coverage 93
9.5.2 Secondary Research 94
9.5.3 Primary Research 94
9.5.4 Expert Panel Validation 94
9.6 Contact Us 95
9.7 Disclaimer 95

List of Tables


Table 1: Wind Power Market, the US, Levelized Cost of Electricity Comparison with Retail Electricity Prices, 2011–2020 14
Table 2: Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Power Generation Technologies, Tons CO2e/GWh, 2012 20
Table 3: Power Market, Global, Cumulative Installed Capacity, by Technology (%), 2012–2020 30
Table 4: Power Market, the US, Cumulative Installed Capacity, by Technology (%), 2012–2020 32
Table 5: Power Market, the US, Levelized Cost of Electricity, by Technology ($/kWh), 2011–2020 33
Table 6: Power Market, China, Cumulative Installed Capacity, by Technology (%), 2012–2020 35
Table 7: Power Market, China, Levelized Cost of Electricity, by Technology ($/kWh), 2011–2020 36
Table 8: Power Market, India, Cumulative Installed Capacity, by Technology (%), 2012–2020 38
Table 9: Power Market, India, Levelized Cost of Electricity, by Technology ($/kWh), 2011–2020 39
Table 10: Power Market, Germany, Cumulative Installed Capacity, by Technology (%), 2012–2020 41
Table 11: Power Market, Germany, Levelized Cost of Electricity, by Technology ($/kWh), 2011–2020 42
Table 12: Power Market, the UK, Cumulative Installed Capacity, by Technology (%), 2012–2020 43
Table 13: Power Market, the UK, Levelized Cost of Electricity, by Technology ($/kWh), 2011–2020 44
Table 14: Power Market, Australia, Cumulative Installed Capacity, by Technology (%), 2012 and 2020 46
Table 15: Power Market, Australia, Levelized Cost of Electricity, by Technology ($/kWh), 2011–2020 47
Table 16: Power Market, the US, Levelized Cost of Electricity Range, by Technology, Comparative Analysis ($/kWh), 2012 48
Table 17: Power Market, China, LCOE by Technologies, Comparative Analysis, 2012 49
Table 18: Power Market, India, Levelized Cost of Electricity Range, by Technology, Comparative Analysis ($/kWh), 2012 50
Table 19: Power Market, Germany, Levelized Cost of Electricity Range, by Technology, Comparative Analysis ($/kWh), 2012 51
Table 20: Power Market, the UK, Levelized Cost of Electricity Range, by Technology, Comparative Analysis ($/kWh), 2012 52
Table 21: Power Market, Australia, Levelized Cost of Electricity Range, by Technology, Comparative Analysis ($/kWh), 2012 53
Table 22: Biomass Power Market, Global, Levelized Cost of Electricity in Major Countries, Comparative Analysis ($/kWh), 2012 54
Table 23: Biomass Power Market, the US, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 55
Table 24: Biomass Power Market, China, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 56
Table 25: Biomass Power Market, India, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 57
Table 26: Biomass Power Market, Germany, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 58
Table 27: Biomass Power Market, the UK, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 59
Table 28: Biomass Power Market, Australia, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 60
Table 29: Solar PV Power Market, Global, Levelized Cost of Electricity in Major Countries, Comparative Analysis ($/kWh), 2012 62
Table 30: Solar PV Power Market, the US, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 63
Table 31: Solar PV Power Market, China, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 64
Table 32: Solar PV Power Market, India, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 65
Table 33: Solar PV Power Market, Germany, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 66
Table 34: Solar PV Power Market, the UK, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 67
Table 35: Solar PV Power Market, Australia, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 68
Table 36: Wind Power Market, Global, Levelized Cost of Electricity in Major Countries, Comparative Analysis, 2012 70
Table 37: Wind Power Market, the US, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 71
Table 38: Wind Power Market, China, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 72
Table 39: Wind Power Market, India, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 73
Table 40: Wind Power Market, Germany, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 74
Table 41: Wind Power Market, the UK, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 75
Table 42: Wind Power Market, Australia, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 76
Table 43: Coal-fired Power Market, Global, Levelized Cost of Electricity in Major Countries, Comparative Analysis ($/kWh), 2012 77
Table 44: Coal-fired Power Market, the US, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 78
Table 45: Coal-fired Power Market, China, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 79
Table 46: Coal-fired Power Market, India, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 80
Table 47: Coal-fired Power Market, Germany, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 81
Table 48: Coal-fired Power Market, the UK, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 82
Table 49: Coal-fired Power Market, Australia, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 83
Table 50: Gas-fired Power Market, Global, Levelized Cost of Electricity in Major Countries, Comparative Analysis, 2012 84
Table 51: Gas-fired Power Market, the US, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 85
Table 52: Gas-fired Power Market, China, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 86
Table 53: Gas-fired Power Market, India, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 87
Table 54: Gas-fired Power Market, Germany, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 88
Table 55: Gas-fired Power Market, the UK, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 89
Table 56: Gas-fired Power Market, Australia, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 90
Table 57: Power Generating Sources Covered as Part of the Report 91

List of Figures


Figure 1: Comparison of Capital Cost Estimates ($/kW), 2012 12
Figure 2: Wind Power Market, the US, Levelized Cost of Electricity Comparison with Retail Electricity Prices, 2011–2020 13
Figure 3: Components of Cost of Power Generation, 2012 15
Figure 4: Comparison of Capital Cost Estimates ($/kW), 2012 16
Figure 5: Comparison of Capacity Factors of Different Technologies (%), the US, 2012 18
Figure 6: Power Market, Factors Impacting Cost of Power Generation, 2012 19
Figure 7: Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Power Generation Technologies, Tons CO2e/GWh, 2012 20
Figure 8: Global Carbon Trading Market Structure, 2012 22
Figure 9: Power Market, Factors Impacting Electricity Prices, 2012 25
Figure 10: Solar PV Power Market, LCOE in Major Countries ($/kWh), 2011–2020 27
Figure 11: Power Market, Global, Cumulative Installed Capacity, by Technology (%), 2012–2020 30
Figure 12: Power Market, the US, Cumulative Installed Capacity, by Technology (%), 2012–2020 31
Figure 13: Power Market, the US, Levelized Cost of Electricity, by Technology ($/kWh), 2011–2020 33
Figure 14: Power Market, China, Cumulative Installed Capacity, by Technology (%), 2012–2020 34
Figure 15: Power Market, China, Levelized Cost of Electricity, by Technology ($/kWh), 2011–2020 36
Figure 16: Power Market, India, Cumulative Installed Capacity, by Technology (%), 2012–2020 37
Figure 17: Power Market, India, Levelized Cost of Electricity, by Technology ($/kWh), 2011–2020 39
Figure 18: Power Market, Germany, Cumulative Installed Capacity, by Technology (%), 2012–2020 40
Figure 19: Power Market, Germany, Levelized Cost of Electricity, by Technology ($/kWh), 2011–2020 42
Figure 20: Power Market, the UK, Cumulative Installed Capacity, by Technology (%), 2012–2020 43
Figure 21: Power Market, the UK, Levelized Cost of Electricity, by Technology ($/kWh), 2011–2020 44
Figure 22: Power Market, Australia, Cumulative Installed Capacity, by Technology (%), 2012 and 2020 45
Figure 23: Power Market, Australia, Levelized Cost of Electricity, by Technology ($/kWh), 2011–2020 47
Figure 24: Power Market, the US, Levelized Cost of Electricity Range, by Technology, Comparative Analysis ($/kWh), 2012 48
Figure 25: Power Market, China, Levelized Cost of Electricity Range, by Technology, Comparative Analysis ($/kWh), 2012 49
Figure 26: Power Market, India, Levelized Cost of Electricity Range ($/kWh), by Technology, Comparative Analysis ($/kWh), 2012 50
Figure 27: Power Market, Germany, Levelized Cost of Electricity Range, by Technology, Comparative Analysis ($/kWh), 2012 51
Figure 28: Power Market, the UK, Levelized Cost of Electricity Range ($/kWh), by Technology, Comparative Analysis ($/kWh), 2012 52
Figure 29: Power Market, Australia, Levelized Cost of Electricity Range, by Technology, Comparative Analysis ($/kWh), 2012 53
Figure 30: Biomass Power Market, Global, Levelized Cost of Electricity in Major Countries, Comparative Analysis ($/kWh), 2012 54
Figure 31: Biomass Power Market, the US, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 55
Figure 32: Biomass Power Market, China, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 56
Figure 33: Biomass Power Market, India, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 57
Figure 34: Biomass Power Market, Germany, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 58
Figure 35: Biomass Power Market, the UK, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 59
Figure 36: Biomass Power Market, Australia, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 60
Figure 37: Solar PV Power Market, Global, Levelized Cost of Electricity in Major Countries, Comparative Analysis ($/kWh), 2012 61
Figure 38: Solar PV Power Market, the US, Levelized Cost of Electricity, 2011–2020 63
Figure 39: Solar PV Power Market, China, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 64
Figure 40: Solar PV Power Market, India, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 65
Figure 41: Solar PV Power Market, Germany, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 66
Figure 42: Solar PV Power Market, the UK, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 67
Figure 43: Solar PV Power Market, Australia, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 68
Figure 44: Wind Power Market, Global, Levelized Cost of Electricity in Major Countries, Comparative Analysis, 2012 69
Figure 45: Wind Power Market, the US, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 71
Figure 46: Wind Power Market, China, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 72
Figure 47: Wind Power Market, India, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 73
Figure 48: Wind Power Market, Germany, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 74
Figure 49: Wind Power Market, the UK, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 75
Figure 50: Wind Power Market, Australia, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 76
Figure 51: Coal-fired Power Market, Global, Levelized Cost of Electricity in Major Countries ($/kWh), 2012 77
Figure 52: Coal-fired Power Market, the US, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 78
Figure 53: Coal-fired Power Market, China, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 79
Figure 54: Coal-fired Power Market, India, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 80
Figure 55: Coal-fired Power Market, Germany, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 81
Figure 56: Coal-fired Power Market, the UK, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 82
Figure 57: Coal-fired Power Market, Australia, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 83
Figure 58: Gas-fired Power Market, Global, Levelized Cost of Electricity in Major Countries, Comparative Analysis ($/kWh), 2012 84
Figure 59: Gas-fired Power Market, the US, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 85
Figure 60: Gas-fired Power Market, China, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 86
Figure 61: Gas-fired Power Market, India, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 87
Figure 62: Gas-fired Power Market, Germany, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 88
Figure 63: Gas-fired Power Market, the UK, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 89
Figure 64: Gas-fired Power Market, Australia, Levelized Cost of Electricity ($/kWh), 2011–2020 90

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