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Coffee - US - September 2015

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Sep 2015

Category :

Beverages

No. of Pages : N/A

Total retail sales of coffee posted 8.7% gains in estimated 2015. The strong year-over-year growth seen through 2012 slowed in 2013 and 2014 as manufacturers and consumers felt coffee

Table of Content

Overview

What you need to know
Definition

Executive Summary

The issues
Competition at foodservice
Figure 1: Coffee tracker, June 2015
Cold-Brew, liquid coffee enhancers lacking interest
Figure 2: Cold brew and liquid coffee enhancer interest, June 2015
Single-cup’s environmental troubles
Figure 3: Attitudes and behaviors toward single-cup, June 2015
The opportunities
Segments experiencing growth
Figure 4: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
Important influencers: freshness, variety, flavor
Figure 5: Purchasing attributes, June 2015
Functional opportunities
Figure 6: Percent of US coffee/RTD coffee launches, by functional or plus claims, 2010- Aug 17, 2015
Positive single-cup perceptions and interests
Figure 7: Attitudes and behaviors toward single-cup, June 2015
What it means

The Market – What you need to know

Category growth expected through 2020
Single-cup, RTD coffee sees strongest growth
Hot coffee most consumed at home

Market Size and Forecast

Category growth forecast to continue through 2020
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20

Market Breakdown

Single-cup catching up to roasted coffee segment
Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
Single-cup, RTD coffee segments experience growth through 2020
Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
Cold brew sales grow 338.9% from 2010-15
Figure 13: Total US retail sales of refrigerated cold-brew/concentrate coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
Other channels dominate category sales, supermarkets close behind
Figure 14: Total US retail sales of coffee, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Natural channel sales grow 56.1% from 2013-15
Figure 15: Natural supermarket sales of coffee and coffee substitutes, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-15
Coffee segments see sales growth at natural channels
Figure 16: Natural supermarket sales of coffee and coffee substitutes, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending June 2013 and June 2015
Organic coffees lead in natural channels sales growth
Figure 17: Natural supermarket sales of coffee and coffee substitutes, by segment and organic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-15

Market Perspective

Hot coffee dominates usage, fuels at-home consumption
Figure 18: Coffee Tracker, June 2015

Market Factors

2015 coffee prices continue to decline
Figure 19: Coffee retail price, US city average, trending 2010-15
Household income declines through 2013
Figure 20: Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2003-13
Majority’s median household income $50K plus
Figure 21: Median household income, by age of householder, 2013
Households with families’ income increasing
Figure 22: Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2003-13
Households with children declining, Millennials becoming parents
Figure 23: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
Figure 24: Households with own children, by age of householder, 2013
Hispanic, Asian populations experiencing growth
Figure 25: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2010-20
Figure 26: Households with own children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2013

Key Players – What You Need to Know

Leading companies see MULO sales growth
Coffee house brands, single-cup, RTD coffee see MULO growth
Instant, decaffeinated coffee decline
Opportunity for functional coffees

Manufacturer Sales of Coffee

Leading companies see MULO sales growth
Manufacturer sales of coffee
Figure 27: MULO sales of coffee, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 28: MULO sales of coffee, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015

What’s Working?

Coffeehouse brands dominate MULO roasted coffee sales
Figure 29: MULO sales of roasted coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Single-cup MULO sales sees 19.6% growth
Figure 30: MULO sales of single cup coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Ready-to-drink coffees see double digit MULO sales growth
Cold brew enters MULO channels
Nitro coffee – Cold brew evolution
Figure 31: Cuvee Coffee - Nitro Coffee In Cans

What’s Struggling?

Instant coffee MULO sales decline
Figure 32: Instant coffee launches, 2010-Aug 25, 2015
Figure 33: MULO sales of single cup coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Decaffeinated coffees
Figure 34: Household roasted coffee consumption, by coffee type, 2011-15
Figure 35: MULO sales of decaffeinated coffee, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 36: Percent of total new decaffeinated coffee products launched since 2010, by year, 2010 to Aug 27, 2015

What’s Next – Functional Coffees

Consumer looking for functionality
Figure 37: Percent of coffee/RTD coffee launches with functional or plus claims (antioxidant, digestive, prebiotic, slimming, high protein, vitamin/mineral fortified, etc), 2010- Aug 17, 2015
Figure 38: Percent of US coffee/RTD coffee launches, by functional or plus claims, 2010- Aug 17, 2015
Brands with functional attributes
Protein and vitamins/minerals

The Consumer – What You Need to Know

Majority drinks coffee
Single-cup seeing environmental impact
33% interested in cold brew trial
26% interested in trying liquid coffee enhancer

Core Target Audiences

Older Millennials heaviest drinkers of each coffee type
Figure 39: Usage, by generation, June 2015
Parents, particularly fathers, a core coffee audience
Figure 40: Usage – Any consumption, by parental status, June 2015
Higher income influences single cup, RTD consumption
Figure 41: Usage, by household income, June 2015
Acculturated Hispanics and Asians heavy coffee consumers
Hispanics, Asians heavy coffee drinkers, by individual consumption
Figure 42: Usage, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2015
Acculturated Hispanics and Asians most likely drinking roasted coffee
Figure 43: Roasted coffee household consumption, by language spoken in household, March to August 2015
Figure 44: Roasted coffee household consumption, by generation and income, March to August 2015

Cross-consumption Variety

Consumers drinking a variety of brews
Moderate drinkers drink the most variety of coffee types
Figure 45: Usage – Any drink, by usage – Any drink, June 2015

Roasted Grounds/Bean Consumption

Ground coffee consumed most frequently
Parents, Millennials, Hispanics heaviest pre-ground/bean coffee drinkers
Millennials, Asian stand out as moderate drinkers
Figure 46: Usage, by roasted coffee type, June 2015
Figure 47: Usage – Any and heavy consumption, by coffee type, June 2015

Single-cup Consumption

Single cup coffee consumption frequency dominates espressos
Higher income Millennials, parents heaviest users
Higher income Millennials, parents drinking weekly
Figure 48: Usage, by single-cup type, June 2015
Figure 49: Usage – Any and heavy consumption, by coffee type, June 2015

Single-Cup’s Environmental Impact

Single-cup packaging can affect volume consumption
Reusable pod appeal
Recyclable programs viewed favorably
Figure 50: Attitudes and behaviors toward single-cup, June 2015
Millennial women’s purchases most affected by environmental concerns
Figure 51: Attitudes and behaviors toward single-cup coffee – CHAID – Tree output, June 2015

Ready-To-Drink Consumption

RTD coffee not yet an everyday beverage
Older Millennials are heaviest RTD drinkers
Figure 52: Usage, by RTD coffee type, June 2015
Figure 53: Usage – Any and heavy consumption, by coffee type, June 2015

Cold Brew

Majority disinterested in trying cold brew
Figure 54: Cold brew interest, June 2015
Attention to new brew methods drives cold brew interest
Figure 55: Cold brew –Positive attributes, by cold brew usage or interest, June 2015
Disliking cold brew taste is top reason for disinterest
Figure 56: Cold brew –Negative attributes, by cold brew interest, June 2015

Liquid Coffee Enhancers

Majority disinterested in trying liquid coffee enhancers
Figure 57: Liquid coffee enhancer interest, June 2015
Curiosity, convenience drives liquid coffee enhancer interest
Figure 58: Liquid coffee enhancer – Positive attributes, June 2015
Liquid coffee enhancer disinterest
Figure 59: Liquid coffee enhancer – Negative attributes, June 2015

Important Purchase Attributes

Convenience influences coffee purchase
Figure 60: Correspondence Analysis – Purchasing attributes, June 2015

Purchase Location

Grocery stores, mass merchandisers are top purchase locations
Coffee shopping habits vary most with age and presence of children
Household income impact
Figure 61: Purchase location, by usage type – Heavy drinkers, June 2015
Figure 62: Coffee new product/new variety/new range extension, by coffee types, by retail location, rolling year ending August 2015

Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms

Appendix – Market

Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of roasted coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of roasted coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of single-cup coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of single-cup coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of instant coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of instant coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of ready-to-drink and cold-brew coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of ready-to-drink and cold-brew coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 71: Total US retail sales of refrigerated cold-brew/concentrate coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 72: Total US retail sales of refrigerated cold-brew/concentrate coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 73: US supermarket sales of coffee, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 74: US drugstore sales of coffee, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 75: US sales of coffee through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 76: Natural supermarket sales of coffee and coffee substitutes, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending June 16, 2013 and June 14, 2015
Figure 77: Natural supermarket sales of coffee and coffee substitutes, by segment and organic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending June 16, 2013 and June 14, 2015

Appendix – Key Players

Figure 78: MULO sales of roasted coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 79: MULO sales of single cup coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 80: MULO sales of instant coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 81: MULO sales of ready to drink coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015

Appendix – CHAID Analysis

Methodology
Figure 82: Attitudes and behaviors toward single-cup coffee – CHAID – Table output, June 2015

Appendix – Correspondence Analysis

Methodology
Figure 83: Purchasing attributes, JUNE 2015

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