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Coffee - US - September 2014

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Oct 2014

Category :

Beverages

No. of Pages : 144 Pages

Coffee manufacturers face increased competition both from within their own category and from other beverages. Consumers are embracing the choice and variety of coffee options and from other beverages, but with a slowly improving economy, manufacturers will be challenged to maintain consumer interest in in-home coffee consumption.
Table of Content

Scope and Themes

What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms

Executive Summary

Overview
Quest for flavor and convenience will fuel the coffee category’s continued growth
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2009-19
Coffeehouse flavors could inspire in-home options
Figure 2: Top 10 coffee types menued at coffeehouses and donut shops, by incidence, Q3 2010-Q3 2013
Consumers of all types drink less coffee as the day progresses
Figure 3: Time of day for consuming coffee prepared at home, by any consumption – Types of coffee, June 2014
Multi-serve drip coffee makers remain the norm in most households
Figure 4: Coffee brewer ownership, by generations, June 2014
Convenience, ease of use lead reasons behind choice of coffee machine
Figure 5: Reasons for purchasing preferred coffee brewer, by gender and age, June 2014
Roast coffee share slips, while single-cup gains
Figure 6: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19, in millions
Single-cup coffee, RTD companies offset declines from roast, instant manufacturers
Figure 7: MULO market share of coffee sales, by leading companies, 52 weeks ending June 15, 2014
Consumers aged 18-34 most likely to drink single-cup, RTD coffee
Figure 8: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – Any consumption, by gender and age, June 2014
Potential for healthy coffee innovation
Figure 9: Any Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by any consumption of coffee, June 2014
What we think

Issues and Insights

Pods could resonate with older consumers, though perhaps not single-cup
Issue
Insight: Forthcoming pod carafe machines could entice older consumers to the pod
Energy drinks emerge as coffee substitute – can they take over coffee’s turf?
Issue
Insight: Coffee can serve as a natural energy booster
Can RTD coffees expect the same growth as single-cup?
Issue
Insight: RTDs should capitalize on Millennial interest with flavorful coffees that embrace other attributes

Trend Applications

Trend: Who are the Joneses?
Trend: Minimize Me
Trend: Secret, Secret

Market Size and Forecast

Key points
Coffee growing but slowing
Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 11: Total US sales and forecast of coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Single-cup propels the coffee category to continued growth
Figure 12: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2008-18
Forecast methodology

Market Drivers

Key points
Commodity prices of coffee rise dramatically
Figure 13: Monthly average price for raw coffee supplies, January 2012-June 2014
Millennials growing and embracing quick, convenient options
Figure 14: US population, by generation share, 2014
Diverse population drinking a diversity of coffee drinks
Figure 15: Personal daily consumption of coffee at home, by volume (mean), by race/ethnicity origin, June 2014

Competitive Context

Key points
Energy drinks, CSDs compete for coffee’s caffeine benefit
Figure 16: Reasons for drinking energy drinks, by age, June 2014
Foodservice steals in-home coffee occasions by promoting premium and specialty coffee drinks
Figure 17: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by any consumption* of coffee, June 2014
Figure 18: Top 10 coffee types menued at coffeehouses and donut shops, by incidence, Q3 2010-Q3 2013
Figure 19: Drivers for coffeehouses and donut shops, by day parts, September 2013
Tea has caffeine plus a healthier reputation
Figure 20: Attitudes and behaviors toward tea, by generations, any agree responses May 2014

Segment Performance

Key points
Single-cup and RTD drive coffee category growth
Figure 21: Total US retail sales of coffee, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
Figure 22: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
Roast coffee’s loss is single-cup’s gain
Figure 23: Total US Retail sales of roast coffee, 2009-19
Single-cup growth slows but will still overtake roast coffee within three years
Figure 24: Total US retail sales and forecast single-cup coffee, at current prices, 2009-19
RTD sales value grows 26% vs 2012, second only to single-cup
Figure 25: Total US retail sales and forecast of ready-to-drink coffee, at current prices, 2009-19
Instant coffee continues to erode
Figure 26: Total US Retail sales of instant coffee, 2009-19
Figure 27: Household usage of instant coffee, by brand, February 2008-March 2014
Figure 28: Total US retail sales and forecast of instant coffee, at current prices, 2009-14
Figure 29: Household usage of instant coffee, February 2008-March 2014
Figure 30: Household volume usage of instant coffee, February 2008-March 2014
Figure 31: Household usage of instant coffee, by flavors, February 2009-March 2014

Retail Channels

Key points
Supermarkets and other channels vie for coffee sales
Figure 32: Total US retail sales of coffee, by channel and market share, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
Coffee sees distinctly more activity in other retail channels than most other food and drink
Figure 33: Total US retail sales of coffee, by channel, at current prices, 2009-14
Natural grocery stores coffee sales grew 20%, more than any other retail channel
Figure 34: Natural supermarket sales of coffee and coffee substitutes, at current prices, 2012-14*
Figure 35: Natural supermarket sales of coffee, by segment, 2012 and 2014*
Single-cup pods begin to emerge in natural supermarkets
Figure 36: Natural supermarket sales of ground coffee, by packaging, 2012 and 2014*

Leading Companies and Brand Analysis

Key points
Roast coffee sales tumble as single-cup continues upward climb
Figure 37: Folgers, “Folgers Gourmet Selections K-Cup Packs Commercial,” TV Ad, August 2014
Figure 38: MULO sales of coffee at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Roast coffee brands shrink
Figure 39: Maxwell House, “GOOD,” TV Ad, April 2014
Figure 40: Seattle’s Best, “Seattle\'s Best Coffeehouse Blend is the Taste That Duncan Loves,” TV Ad, March 2014
Figure 41: MULO sales of roast coffee at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Single-serve espresso cups, store brands drive sales in the single-serve segment
Figure 42: Gevalia, “Cheers,” TV Ad, August 2014
Figure 43: MULO sales of single-cup coffee at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Starbucks maintains dominance in RTD segment
Figure 44: Starbucks, “Purrfection,” Tumblr Post, 2014
Figure 45: International Delight, “Skip the Line,” TV Ad, May 2014
Figure 46: MULO sales of ready to drink coffee at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014

Innovations and Innovators

Single-cup launches overtake those of roast coffee
Figure 47: Coffee launches by product launch type, 2009-14*
Coffeehouse and other foodservice brands take their mark into single-cup formats
Consumers are looking for a healthful benefit from their coffee
Cold brewing takes RTD form

The Consumer – Coffee Brewer Ownership

Key points
Multi-serve drip coffee makers remain standard with single-cup pod makers in second place
Figure 48: Coffee brewer ownership, by generations, June 2014
Households with children more likely to own single-serve machines
Figure 49: Coffee brewer ownership, by presence of children in household, June 2014
Coffee connoisseurs own the widest variety of coffee-making machines
Figure 50: Coffee brewer ownership, by any consumption – Types of coffee, June 2014

The Consumer – Reasons for Coffee Brewer Preference

Key points
Ease of use, coffee taste are top reasons for preferred brewer
Figure 51: Reasons for purchasing preferred coffee brewer, June 2014
Single-cup machine users demonstrate a stronger degree of brand loyalty
Figure 52: Reasons for purchasing preferred coffee brewer, by generations, June 2014
Multi-serve owners most habit-driven, single-serve drip maker users less happy with taste
Figure 53: Reasons for purchasing preferred coffee brewer, by coffee brewer ownership, June 2014
Espresso-pod users like ability to accommodate many drinkers with a variety of coffee drinks
Figure 54: Reasons for purchasing preferred coffee brewer, by coffee brewer ownership, June 2014
Cold brew coffee connoisseurs say their machine/s offer a coffeehouse experience
Figure 55: Reasons for purchasing preferred coffee brewer, by any consumption – Types of Coffee, June 2014

The Consumer – Occasions for Drinking Coffee

Key points
Morning and breakfast still most common times to drink coffee
Figure 56: Occasions for drinking coffee prepared at home, June 2014
Younger adults drink coffee at less conventional times of day, more likely on the go
Figure 57: Location, meal occasion and time of day for consuming coffee prepared at home, by generations, June 2014
Millennial women are biggest afternoon coffee drinkers, Millennial men drink coffee in the evening
Figure 58: Time of day for consuming coffee prepared at home, by gender and age, June 2014
RTD and cold brew coffee drinkers consume at lunch, in the evening
Figure 59: Time of day for consuming coffee prepared at home, by any consumption – Types of coffee, June 2014
Figure 60: Meal occasion for consuming coffee prepared at home, by any consumption – Types of coffee, June 2014
Half of Millennial women drink home-brewed coffee on the go
Figure 61: Location for consuming coffee prepared at home, by gender and age, June 2014
Parents drink coffee everywhere: at home and on the go
Figure 62: Location for consuming coffee prepared at home, by presence of children in household, June 2014
Retail RTD and cold brew coffee drinkers drink it out of home
Figure 63: Location for consuming coffee prepared at home, by any consumption – Types of coffee, June 2014

The Consumer – Consumption by Type

Key points
Ground/whole bean, espresso coffee usage holds steady; RTD just under 25% usage
Figure 64: Household usage of ground or whole bean coffee, February 2008-March 2014
Figure 65: Personal consumption of bottled or canned coffee drinks, February 2008-March 2014
Figure 66: Household usage of espresso/cappuccino, February 2008-March 2014
Ground coffee consumption high; Millennials driving single-cup, RTD coffee usage
Figure 67: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – Any consumption, June 2014
Figure 68: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – Any consumption, by generations, June 2014
Figure 69: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – Any consumption, by gender and age, June 2014
Households with children significantly more likely to drink all coffee types than households without kids
Figure 70: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – Any consumption, by presence of children in household, June 2014

The Consumer – Consumption by Frequency

Key points
Ground coffee has daily at-home consumption
Figure 71: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home, June 2014
Most coffee drinkers are have high to moderate consumption
Figure 72: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – Any consumption, by any consumption* of coffee, June 2014
Single-cup and RTD consumers are high frequency overall coffee drinkers
Figure 73: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – Usage Groups, by Any consumption* – Types of coffee, June 2014
Swing Generation most likely to be high frequency coffee consumers
Figure 74: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – Usage groups*, by generations, June 2014
Parents are high frequency coffee consumers – across all coffee types
Figure 75: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – High usage*, by presence of children in household, June 2014

The Consumer – Consumption by Volume

Key points
Households drinking 4.5 cups of home-brewed coffee per day
Figure 76: Household volume usage of ground or whole bean coffee, February 2008-March 2014
Personal at-home coffee consumption has mean range 1.5-2.9 cups per day
Figure 77: Personal daily consumption of coffee at home, by volume, June 2014
Millennial single-cup, RTD consumption lead results in more average cups per day than other generation groups
Figure 78: Personal daily consumption of coffee at home, by volume (mean), by generations, June 2014
Parents average more coffee volume per day than those without kids
Figure 79: Personal daily consumption of coffee at home, by volume (mean), by presence of children in household, June 2014

The Consumer – Brands Used

Key points
Folgers leads in ground/whole bean usage with other brands taking usage from Maxwell House
Figure 80: Household usage of ground or whole bean coffee, by brand, February 2008-March 2014
Other brands lead RTD coffee usage
Figure 81: Personal consumption of bottled or canned coffee drinks, by brand, February 2008-March 2014

The Consumer – Important Product Attributes

Key points
Millennials seek coffeehouse experience in retail product purchase
Figure 82: Important product attributes, by generations, June 2014
Parents choose coffeehouse brands, premium/gourmet, and bulk size
Figure 83: Important product attributes, by presence of children in household, June 2014
RTD coffee drinkers attracted to a coffeehouse experience via flavor, freshness, and premium quality
Figure 84: Important product attributes, by any consumption – Types of coffee, June 2014
Figure 85: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by generations, June 2014
High frequency coffee drinkers, mostly older adults, seek national brands
Figure 86: Important product attributes, by any consumption* of coffee, June 2014

The Consumer – Attitudes and Behaviors toward Coffee

Key points
Iced coffee and new flavored coffee are desired by Millennials
Figure 87: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by generations, June 2014
Figure 88: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by presence of children in household, June 2014
Consumers want additional benefits from coffee – strong potential for innovation and growth
Figure 89: Attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, June 2014
Figure 90: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by generations, June 2014
Figure 91: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by presence of children in household, June 2014
Figure 92: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by any consumption* of coffee, June 2014

Race and Hispanic Origin

Key points
All ethnicities more likely to use single-serve drip machines with less likelihood to like the coffee taste
Figure 93: Coffee brewer ownership, by race/ethnicity origin, June 2014
Figure 94: Reasons for purchasing preferred coffee brewer, by race/ethnicity origin, June 2014
Coffee with lunch is more common among all race/ethnic groups
Figure 95: Location for consuming coffee prepared at home, by race/ethnicity origin, June 2014
Figure 96: Meal occasion for consuming coffee prepared at home, by race/ethnicity origin, June 2014
Figure 97: Location for consuming coffee prepared at home, by race/ethnicity origin, June 2014
Hispanics drink RTDs and cold brew more than traditional hot coffee
Figure 98: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – Any consumption, by race/ethnicity origin, June 2014
Hispanics drink RTDs with higher frequency than all other consumers
Figure 99: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – Usage groups*, by race/ethnicity origin, June 2014
Blacks, Hispanics favor major retail brands, look for freshness dates
Figure 100: Important product attributes, by race/ethnicity origin, June 2014
Hispanics are key opportunity for major retail brand RTDs with added benefits and flavors
Figure 101: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by race/ethnicity origin, June 2014

Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables

Coffee brewer ownership
Figure 102: Coffee brewer ownership, by any consumption* of coffee, June 2014
Figure 103: Coffee brewer ownership, by gender and age, June 2014
Figure 104: Coffee brewer ownership, by age and household income, June 2014
Figure 105: Reasons for purchasing preferred coffee brewer, by gender and age, June 2014
Figure 106: Reasons for purchasing preferred coffee brewer, by age and household income, June 2014
The Consumer – Personal Consumption of Coffee
Figure 107: Personal coffee consumption prepared at home – Any consumption, by age and household income, June 2014
Figure 108: Personal daily consumption of coffee at home, by volume (mean), by gender and age, June 2014
Figure 109: Personal daily consumption of coffee at home, by volume (mean), by race/ethnicity origin, June 2014
Occasions for drinking coffee prepared at home
Figure 110: Meal occasion for consuming coffee prepared at home, by gender and age, June 2014
Figure 111: Time of day for consuming coffee prepared at home, by any consumption of coffee, June 2014
Figure 112: Meal occasion for consuming coffee prepared at home, by any consumption of coffee, June 2014
Figure 113: Location for consuming coffee prepared at home, by any consumption of coffee, June 2014
Important coffee product attributes
Figure 114: Important product attributes, by gender and age, June 2014
Attitudes and behaviors toward coffee
Figure 115: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by gender and age, June 2014
Figure 116: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by age and household income, June 2014
Figure 117: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by gender and age, June 2014
Figure 118: Attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, June 2014
Figure 119: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by gender and age, June 2014
Figure 120: Agreement with attitudes and behaviors toward coffee, by any consumption* of coffee, June 2014

Appendix – Trade Associations

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