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China Grain Industry Analysis and Forecast Report

Published By :

Beijing Shennong Kexin Agribusiness Consulting Co. Ltd

Published Date : Feb 2013

Category :

Agriculture

No. of Pages : 110 Pages


China\'s grain market represented the following changes in 2012:

  1. The prices of main grain seeds was stable with some growth; the expenses of chemical fertilizers, diesel and others all rose in varying degrees; the costs of labor and land rent increased sharply. The costs of planting grain rose obviously.
  2. Corn output hit a record high, becoming the grain variety with the highest production. Corn farming area rose obviously and yield enhanced, the output would be 208 million tons, 15 million tons more than 2011. Owing to good sunshine and heat during growth period, paddy yield ascended. And paddy output should be 203.9 million tons, 2.9 million tons more than 2011. Due to a drop in wheat yield in major producing areas, wheat output should go down to 116.3 million tons, 1.1 million tons less than 2011.
  3. The import volume of wheat, corn and rice all increased sharply. The import volume of corn would be 5.2 million tons, 3.45 million tons more than last year. The import volume of wheat would be 4 million tons, 2.75 million tons more than 2011r. The import volume of rice would be 2.5 million tons, 1.92 million tons more than 2011.
  4. The overall grain price ascended. Influenced by a drop in effective grain supply in the market, wheat price kept on increasing. Paddy price kept on rising in 2012, but it dropped slightly at the end of 2012 with growing volume of new grain availability in the market. Corn price increased driven by a tight supply and it also was decreasing after new grain availability in the market. Meanwhile, the price of corn was higher than wheat.
  5. The purchase price of raw grain was relatively high, and wholesale prices of processed products didn\'t climb up largely, so milling margins of wheat and paddy both were lower than 2011.

Based on the first hand data collected, processed and organized by our company for many years, as well as information reference of domestic departments and organizations, our team conducts objective analysis and comprehensive research on development and changes in paddy & rice, wheat and corn industry in 2012.
Table of Content

Chapter 1 Analysis and Forecast on China\'s Paddy & Rice Industry
1.1 Paddy Production Analysis in China
1.1.1 Paddy Plantation Area Increased
1.1.1.1 Early Indica Paddy Plantation Area Increased, Obviously in Hunan
1.1.1.2 Single Rice Plantation Area Ascended, Especially in Northeast
1.1.1.3 Late Indica Paddy Plantation Area Grew Slightly
1.1.2 Paddy Yield Increased Slightly
1.1.2.1 Early Indica Paddy Yield Increased, High Growth Rate in Hubei and Guangxi
1.1.2.2 Single Rice Plantation Yield almost Same as
1.1.2.3 Late Indica Paddy Yield Improved Slightly
1.1.3 Paddy Production Exceeded 200 Million Tons
1.1.3.1 Early Indica Paddy Production Increased by 1.6%
1.1.3.2 Single Rice Production Went up, high growth rate in Northeast
1.1.3.3 Late Indica Paddy Production Climbed Slightly up
1.1.4 State Purchase Price of Rice Further Increased
1.2 Costs and Benefits of Paddy Farming in China
1.2.1 Investment increased, Farming Costs Continued to Rise
1.2.1.1 Early Indica Paddy Farming Costs Soared to RMB 14220/ha
1.2.1.2 Single Rice Farming Costs Increased to RMB 14940/ha
1.2.1.3 Late Indica Paddy Farming Costs Grew to RMB 13800/ha
1.2.2 Paddy Output Value Slightly Increased
1.2.2.1 Output Value of Early Indica Paddy Increased to RMB 17540/ha
1.2.2.2 Output Value of Single Rice Ascended to RMB 21839/ha
1.2.2.3 Output Value of Late Indica Paddy Improved to RMB 18826/ha
1.2.3 Paddy Farming Profit almost same as
1.2.3.1 Early Indica Paddy Farming Profit to be RMB 3321/ha
1.2.3.2 Single Rice Farming Profit to be RMB 6899/ha
1.2.3.3 Late Indica Paddy Farming Profit to be RMB 5026/ha
1.3 Analysis on China\'s Rice Trade
1.3.1 Analysis on China\'s Rice Import
1.3.1.1 Import Volume Increased to 2.345 million tons, Achieved a Record High
1.3.1.2 Structure of Original Countries Changed, Import Mainly from Vietnam and Pakistan
1.3.2 Analysis on China\'s Rice Export
1.3.2.1 Export Volume Reduced Sharply, Created a Record Low Over the Last Few Years
1.3.2.2 Export Mainly to South Korea, North Korea, Japan and so on
1.3.2.3 Main Rice Exporting Provinces: Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning
1.3.3 Imported Rice Price is Relatively Low, Bringing a Serious Impact on Domestic Market
1.4 Analysis on Paddy & Rice Consumption and Processing Industry in China
1.4.1 Analysis on China\'s Paddy & Rice Consumption Structure
1.4.2 Paddy Milling Industry Analysis
1.4.2.1 Low Concentration of Paddy Processing Capacity, but increasing Year by Year
1.4.2.2 Rice Output of Scaled Enterprises Increased Continuously
1.4.2.3 Major Rice Production Products: Grade I and Special Grade Rice
1.4.2.4 Indica Paddy Processing Profit Dropped, Japonica Paddy Increased
1.4.3 Analysis on Paddy Processing Policies
1.4.3.1 China Imposed Restrictions on Foreign Investment in Rice Further Processing Projects
1.4.3.2 Promoting Development of Staple Food Industrialization, And Improving Utilization Rate of Secondary Products
1.5 Analysis on Key Paddy Processing Enterprises or Groups
1.5.1 COFCO
1.5.2 Heilongjiang Beidahuang Rice Industry Group
1.5.3 Yihai Kerry Group
1.5.4 Jilin Grain Group Rice Industry Co., Ltd
1.5.5 Jiangsu State Farms Cereals Industry Co., Ltd
1.6 Market Price of Paddy and Rice in China
1.6.1 Paddy Purchasing Price Dropped Slightly After Rising up
1.6.1.1 Early Indica Paddy Dropped After Rising up
1.6.1.2 Middle and Late Indica Paddy Dropped Slightly After Rising up
1.6.1.3 Japonica Paddy Price Increased with some Fluctuation, Then Dropped Slightly
1.6.2 Rice Wholesale Price Rose Slightly Then Decreased and Stabilized
1.6.2.1 Early Indica Rice Price Rose Slightly and Then Fell
1.6.2.2 Middle and Late Indica Rice Price Showed Stable Trend
1.6.2.3 Japonica Rice Price Ascended Slightly Then Descended and Stabilized
1.7 Forecast on Supply & Demand and Market Development of Paddy & Rice in 2013
1.7.1 2013 Paddy Farming Area to Increase Slightly
1.7.2 China\'s Rice Import Volume Reduced to 1.5 Million Tons in 2013
1.7.3 Processing Capacity to Increased
1.7.4 Paddy Purchasing Price to Be Stable After a Slight Drop
1.7.5 Forecast on Supply & Demand of Paddy & Rice in 2013/2014

Chapter 2 Analysis and Forecast on China\'s Wheat Industry
2.1 Wheat Production in China in
2.1.1 Farming Area Increased Slightly
2.1.2 Wheat Yield Decreased Narrowly
2.1.3 Wheat Output Dropped Influenced by Plant Diseases and Insect Pests
2.1.4 State Purchase Price of Wheat Increased to RMB 2040/ton
2.2 Cost and Benefit of Wheat Farming in China in
2.2.1 Farming Costs Increased to RMB 11800/ha
2.2.2 Purchase Price was Relatively High, Output Value Further Rose to RMB 13046/ha
2.2.3 Wheat Farming Profit to be RMB 3000/ha
2.3 Analysis on China\'s Wheat and Flour Trade in 2012
2.3.1 Analysis on China\'s Wheat Import
2.3.1.1 Import Volume Increased Sharply to 3.69 Million Tons
2.3.1.2 Import Mainly from Australia, U.S. and Canada
2.3.1.3 Import Volume of Guangdong Province Covered accounted for r more 70% of Total Wheat Import
2.3.2 Analysis on China\'s Wheat Flour Export
2.3.2.1 Export Volume almost same as 2011, Price Increased
2.3.2.2 Export Mainly to Hong Kong and North Korea
2.3.2.3 Major Flour Exporting Provinces: Guangdong, Anhui and Shandong
2.4 Analysis on Wheat Processing Industry Running in China
2.4.1 Analysis on China\'s Wheat Consumption Structure
2.4.2 Wheat Flour and Flour Products Industry Analysis
2.4.2.1 Concentration Ratio of Wheat Processing Capacity was gradually Increasing
2.4.2.2 Grade I and Grade II Flour Output Accounted for over 70% of Total Output
2.4.2.3 Costs Increased, Processing Profit Dropped
2.4.2.4 Wheat Flour Output of Scaled Enterprises Kept on Increasing
2.4.2.5 Output of Instant Noodles Ascended Due to Great Market Demand
2.4.2.6 Output of Frozen Staple Food Increased Slightly
2.4.3 Analysis on Wheat Processing Policies
2.4.3.1 China Imposed Restrictions on Foreign Investment in Wheat Flour Further Processing Projects
2.4.3.2 \"\"Guiding Opinions on Staple Food Industrialization\"\" Promotes Development of Staple Food Industrialization
2.5 Analysis on Important Wheat Processing Enterprises or Groups
2.5.1 Wudeli Flour Group
2.5.2 COFCO
2.5.3 Yihai Kerry Group
2.5.4 Nanshun Flour Group
2.5.5 Jinmailang Food Co. Flour Division
2.6 Market Price of Wheat and Flour in China in
2.6.1 Wheat Purchase Price Continued to Increase, a Record High
2.6.2 Wheat Flour Wholesale Price Increased Slightly
2.6.3 Analysis on Policies Influencing on Price Changes
2.6.3.1 Upset Price of wheat with lowest purchase price Increased Two Times in
2.6.3.2 Reserved Wheat Auction Rules Changed, Market Supply Increased
2.7 Forecast on Wheat Supply & Demand and Market Development in 2013
2.7.1 Wheat Farming Area to Increase Slightly
2.7.2 China\'s Wheat Import Volume to 5 Million Tons
2.7.3 Wheat Processing Industry Concentrated in North China
2.7.4 Wheat Price to further Increased Slightly, Flour Price to Rise
2.7.5 Forecast on Wheat Supply & Demand in 2013/2014

Chapter 3 Analysis and Forecast on China\'s Corn Industry
3.1 Corn Production in China in
3.1.1 Corn Farming Area Continued Increasing in Past 9 Years
3.1.2 Corn Yield Increased Slightly to 5956 kg/ha
3.1.3 China\'s Corn Output Exceeded Rice, Achieved 208 Million Tons
3.1.4 Temporary Corn Reserve Policy in North China Issued, Protection on Farmers Weakened
3.2 Costs and Benefits of Corn Farming in China in
3.2.1 Costs of Corn Farming Increased to RMB 13800/ha
3.2.2 Corn Output Value Kept Grew to RMB 18323/ha
3.2.3 Corn Farming Profit Ascended to RMB 4337/ha
3.3 Analysis on China\'s Corn Trade in
3.3.1 Import Volume Increased Sharply to 5.2 Million tons
3.3.2 More than 98% Corn from the U.S.
3.3.3 Import Mainly Through Shenzhen, Nanjing, Huangpu and Shanghai Customs
3.3.4 China Starts to Import Corn from Ukraine
3.4 Corn Feed Consumption and Important Feed Enterprises in China
3.4.1 Analysis on China\'s Corn Consumption Structure
3.4.2 Analysis on Feed Corn Consumption
3.4.2.1 Industrial Feed Output Increased
3.4.2.2 Feed Processing Enterprises Suffered Loss in the 3rd Quarter
3.4.2.3 Volume of Corn for Feed Increased Year on Year
3.4.3 Analysis on Important Feed Enterprises and Groups
3.4.3.1 Shandong Liuhe Feed Co., Ltd
3.4.3.2 New Hope Group
3.4.3.3 Guangdong Wens Group
3.4.3.4 Chia Tai Group
3.4.3.5 Tongwei Group
3.5 Corn Industrial Consumption and Important Enterprises
3.5.1 Corn Further Processing Industry Analysis in
3.5.1.1 Growth Rate of Corn Industrial Consumption Slowed down
3.5.1.2 Due to Weak Downstream Demand, Corn Further Processing Enterprises Suffered into Losses
3.5.2 Analysis on Corn Further Processing Policies
3.4.5.1 China Imposed Restrictions on Foreign Investment in Corn Further Processing Projects
3.4.5.2 State Adjusted up Value-Added Tax Rate for Corn Processers, and Lowered Corn Fuel Ethanol Subsidies
3.5.3 Analysis on Important Corn Further Processing Enterprises and Groups
3.5.3.1 COFCO
3.5.3.2 Changchun Dacheng Group
3.5.3.3 Zhucheng Xingmao Corn Developing Co., Ltd
3.5.3.4 Fufeng Group
3.5.3.5 Xiwang Group
3.6 Analysis on Corn Market Price
3.6.1 Spot Corn Price Rose Steadily, A Slight Decline After the New Corn Harvested
3.6.2 Corn Price was Higher Than Wheat in the First Half Year, Volume of Wheat Insteading of Corn Increased
3.7 Forecast on Corn Supply & Demand and Market Development in
3.7.1 Corn Farming Area to be Almost Same as 2012, Increased Slightly
3.7.2 China\'s Corn Import Volume to 2~3 Million Tons
3.7.3 Corn Feed Consumption to Increase Slightly, Further Processing Consumption to Stabilize
3.7.4 Corn Price to Keep Stable, No Significant Increase
3.7.5 Forecast on Corn Supply & Demand in 2013/

List of Table


Table 1, Processing Enterprises Distribution and Capacity of COFCO Rice Industry Group
Table 2, Processing Enterprises Distribution and Capacity of Yihai Kerry Group Rice Industry Group
Table 3, Processing Enterprises Distribution and Capacity of Jilin Grain Group Rice Industry Group
Table 4, Processing Enterprises Distribution and Capacity of Jiangsu State Farms Cereals Industry
Table 5, Processing Enterprises Distribution and Capacity of Wudeli Flour Group
Table 6, Processing Enterprises Distribution and Capacity of COFCO Flour Industry Group
Table 7, Processing Enterprises Distribution and Capacity of Yihai Kerry Group Flour Industry Group
Table 8, Processing Enterprises Distribution and Capacity of Nanshun Flour Group
Table 9, Processing Enterprises Distribution and Capacity of Jinmailang Food Co. Flour Division
Table 10, Upset Price of Reserved Wheat (Third-Class Wheat in National Standard) Auction
Table 11, Processing Enterprises Distribution and Capacity of COFCO Corn Further Processing Industry Group
Table 12, Processing Enterprises Distribution and Capacity of Changchun Dacheng Group
Table 13, Processing Enterprises Distribution and Capacity of Zhucheng Xingmao Corn Developing Co., Ltd
Table 14, Processing Enterprises Distribution and Capacity of Fufeng Group
Attached Table 1, Amount and Range of Grain Subsidies in China in
Attached Table 2, Lowest Purchase Price of Grain,
Attached Table 3, Import and Export Tariff Rates of Grain,
Attached Table 4, Quality Index of India Paddy in China (GB 1350-2009)
Attached Table 5, Quality Index of Wheat in China (GB 1351-2008)
Attached Table 6, Paddy Plantation Area by Province,
Attached Table 7, Early Indica Paddy Plantation Area by Province, 2001-2012
Attached Table 8, Middle-Season Indica Paddy Plantation Area by Province,
Attached Table 9, Late Indica Paddy Plantation Area by Province,
Attached Table 10, Rice Yield by Province,
Attached Table 11, Rice Output by Province,
Attached Table 12, Early Indica Paddy Output by Province,
Attached Table 13, Middle-Season Indica Paddy Output by Province,
Attached Table 14, Late Indica Paddy Output by Province,
Attached Table 15, Total Cost of Early Indica Paddy Farming by Province, 2001-2012
Attached Table 16, Total Cost of Middle-Season Indica Paddy Farming by Province,
Attached Table 17, Total Cost of Late Indica Paddy Farming by Province,
Attached Table 18, Output Value of Early Indica Paddy by Province,
Attached Table 19, Output Value of Middle-Season Indica Paddy by Province,
Attached Table 20, Output Value of Late Indica Paddy by Province,
Attached Table 21, Net Profit of Early Indica Paddy Farming by Province,
Attached Table 22, Net Profit of Middle-Season Indica Paddy Farming by Province, 2001-2012
Attached Table 23, Net Profit of Late Indica Paddy Farming by Province,
Attached Table 24, China\'s Rice Export by Country of Destination,
Attached Table 25, Rice Export by Province,
Attached Table 26, China\'s Rice Import by Original Country,
Attached Table 27, Paddy Processing Capacity in Major Producing Regions,
Attached Table 28, Supply and Demand of Rice in China, 2006/07-2012/
Attached Table 29, Wheat Plantation Area by Province, 2001-2012
Attached Table 30, Wheat Yield by Province,
Attached Table 31, Wheat Output by Province,
Attached Table 32, Cost of Wheat Farming by Province,
Attached Table 33, Output Value of Wheat by Province,
Attached Table 34, Net Profit of Wheat Farming by Province,
Attached Table 35, China\'s Wheat Import by Original Country
Attached Table 36, China\'s Wheat Flour Export by Country of Destination 2001-2012
Attached Table 37, China\'s Wheat Flour Import by Original Country,
Attached Table 38, Output of Processed Wheaten Foods in China,
Attached Table 39, Wheat Processing Capacity in Major Producing Regions,
Attached Table 40, Supply and Demand of Wheat in China, 2006/07-2012/
Attached Table 41, Corn Plantation Area by Province, 2001-2012
Attached Table 42, Corn Yield by Province,
Attached Table 43 Corn Output by Province,
Attached Table 44, Total Cost of Corn Farming by Province,
Attached Table 45, Output Value of Corn by Province,
Attached Table 46, Net Profit of Corn Farming by Province,
Attached Table 47, China\'s Corn Import by Original Country,
Attached Table 48, China\'s Corn Export by Country of Destination,
Attached Table 49, Output of Industrial Feed,
Attached Table 50, Supply and Demand of Corn in China, 2006/07-2012/

List of Chart


Map 1, Distribution of China\'s Paddy Production
Map 2, Processing Enterprises Distribution of Heilongjiang Beidahuang Rice Industry Group
Map 3, Distribution of China\'s Wheat Production
Map 4, Distribution of China\'s Corn Production
Figure 1, Hunan and China\'s Early Paddy Plantation Area, 1983-2012
Figure 2, Northeast and China\'s Middle-Season Paddy Plantation Area,
Figure 3, China\'s Late Paddy Plantation Area, 1978-2012
Figure 4, Hubei, Guangxi and China\'s Early Paddy Yield,
Figure 5, China\'s Middle-Season Paddy Yield,
Figure 6, China\'s Late Paddy Yield,
Figure 7, China\'s Early Paddy Output,
Figure 8, China\'s Middle-Season Paddy Output,
Figure 9, China\'s Late Paddy Output,
Figure 10, Lowest Purchase Price of Wheat and Middle-Season & Late Indica Paddy,
Figure 11, Cost of Early Indica Paddy Production in China,
Figure 12, Cost of Middle-Season Indica Paddy Production in China,
Figure 13, Cost of Late Indica Paddy Production in China,
Figure 14, Price and Output Value of China\'s Early Indica Paddy, 1999-2012
Figure 15, Price and Output Value of China\'s Middle-Season Indica Paddy,
Figure 16, Price and Output Value of China\'s Late Indica Paddy,
Figure 17, Hubei, Guangxi and China\'s Net Profit of Early Indica Paddy Farming,
Figure 18, Anhui, Sichuan and China\'s Net Profit of Middle-Season Indica Paddy Farming,
Figure 19, Jiangxi, Guangxi and China\'s Net Profit of Late Indica Paddy Farming,
Figure 20, China\'s Rice Import Volume and Price by Month,
Figure 21, Price of Rice Imported From Thailand and Vietnam,
Figure 22, Rice Import by Original Country in
Figure 23, China\'s Rice Export Volume and Price by Month,
Figure 24, China\'s Rice Export by Destination Country in
Figure 25, Rice Export by Province in
Figure 26, Characteristics of China\'s Paddy & Rice Consumption in Year 2012/
Figure 27, Rice Processing Capacity of China, 2004-2012
Figure 28, Rice Output of Scaled Enterprises in China,
Figure 29, Rice Output of Scaled Enterprises by Province in
Figure 30, Structures of Rice Production
Figure 31, Paddy Processing Margins,
Figure 32, Price Trend of Early Indica Paddy,
Figure 33, Price Trends of Middle-Season and Late Indica Paddy,
Figure 34, Price Trends of Japonica Paddy,
Figure 35, Price Trend of Early Indica Rice,
Figure 36, Price Trends of Middle-Season and Late Indica Rice,
Figure 37, Price Trends of Japonica Rice,
Figure 38, China\'s Wheat Plantation Area,
Figure 39, China\'s Wheat Yield, 1979-2012
Figure 40, China\'s Wheat Output, 1979-2012
Figure 41, Transactions of Wheat with Lowest Purchase Price,
Figure 42, Cost of Wheat Farming in China,
Figure 43, Output Value and Average Price of Wheat in China,
Figure 44, Net Profit of Wheat Farming in China, 1999-2012
Figure 45, China\'s Wheat Import Volume and Price by Month,
Figure 46, China\'s Wheat Import by Original Country in 2012
Figure 47, Wheat Import by Province in
Figure 48, China\'s Flour Export Volume and Average Export Price by Month, 2000-2012
Figure 49, China\'s Flour Export by Country of Destination in
Figure 50, Wheat Flour Export by Province in 2012
Figure 51, Structure of Wheat Consumption in Year 2012/
Figure 52, Daily Wheat Flour Processing Capacity,
Figure 53, Main Wheat Flour Products Structure in China
Figure 54, Wheat Milling Margins in China, 2009-2012
Figure 55, Wheat Flour Output of Scaled Enterprises,
Figure 56, Wheat Flour Output by Province in 2012
Figure 57, Instant Noodles Output of Scaled Enterprises,
Figure 58, Frozen Staple Food Output of Scaled Enterprises,
Figure 59, Trend of Average Wheat Purchase Price,
Figure 60, China\'s Average Flour Price of Grade I and Grade II,
Figure 61, China\'s Corn Plantation Area, 1979-2012
Figure 62, China\'s Corn Yield,
Figure 63, China\'s Corn Output,
Figure 64, Cost of Corn Farming in China,
Figure 65, China\'s Corn Output Value, 2003-2012
Figure 66, Net Profit of Corn Farming in China, 2003-2012
Figure 67, China\'s Corn Import Volume and Average Import Price by Month,
Figure 68, Corn Import Volume by Original Country in
Figure 69, Corn Import Volume by Customs in
Figure 70, Structure of Corn Consumption in Year 2012/
Figure 71, Industrial Feed Output in China,
Figure 72, China\'s Pigs, Laying Hens and Broilers Compound Feed Processing Profit,
Figure 73, Ratio of Corn Industrial Consumption in China, 2005/06-2012/
Figure 74, Corn Starch Processing Profit,
Figure 75, Corn Alcohol Processing Profit,
Figure 76, Average Purchase Price of Corn, 2010-2012

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