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China Cattle Farming & Dairy Industry Analysis and Forecast Report 2012 - 2013

Published By :

Beijing Shennong Kexin Agribusiness Consulting Co. Ltd

Published Date : Feb 2013

Category :

Agriculture

No. of Pages : 115 Pages


In 2012, China\'s dairy cattle farming and dairy industry mainly showed the following characteristics and changes:

  1. The raw milk supply was still in shortage in 2012, and milk price stayed on high level. However, to compare with 2011, profits in dairy cattle farming declined significantly and even presented deficit because of big feed cost increase.
  2. Poor margin have forced many small farmers to give up dairy cattle farming in 2012. Community farming is expected to transform into professional farming modes like large-scale farm or dairy cooperative; and the proportion of large-scale dairy cattle farming in China will further expand.
  3. Large-scale dairy cattle farming have been developing rapidly in China. In 2012, the number of dairy farms with inventory of over 1,000 heads has exceeded 1,200, among which about 50 large dairy farms (including farms in plan, under construction and in operation) individually have inventory of over 3,000 heads, and over 10 super large dairy farms respectively own inventory of 10,000 heads.
  4. Dairy cattle farming will expand demand for automatic equipments like in feeding and milking. Meanwhile, manure pollution will become the major factor to restrict development of the industry.
  5. In 2012, alfalfa hay consumption showed growth and the import volume reached 0.45 million MT, accounting for over 60% of national consumption.

Meanwhile, there are some new changes in dairy industry:

  1. In 2012, dairy products output and imports both increased greatly and respectively reached 25.45 million MT and 1.15 million MT; the output of liquid milk and solid dairy products kept increasing and respectively reached 22.4 million MT and 1.57 million MT; the supply and demand was generally balanced.
  2. In 2012, China\'s UHT milk imports sharply increased - doubled 2011 and reached nearly 94,000 MT; The number of imported UHT milk brands exceeded 30.
  3. In the Chinese infant formula market, foreign brands covers 60-70% market share; the number of foreign brands has even exceeded 100. Meanwhile, overseas purchasing service for infant formula has been developing drastically and contributes about 10% of the national consumption.
  4. Many international dairy giants like Fonterra, Danone, Nestle and Arla Foods have been expanding investment and development in China.

We predict the dairy industry development in 2013 to go along the following trends: more small farmers quitting the industry; the proportion of large-scale dairy farming in dairy farming industry to further increase; the domestic raw milk supply to keep ascending; total dairy imports to increase slightly; the dairy production capacity to continue to expand. Generally speaking, domestic raw milk shortage will not be well eased, and dairy supply and demand will be balance in 2013.

This annual report will comprehensively and systematically analyze the trends and changes in the Chinese dairy market in 2012 with detailed and accurate data and will also forecast the development in 2013.
Table of Content

PART ONE: 2012 DAIRY CATTLE FARMING IN CHINA
1.1 Dairy Cattle Inventory and Raw Milk Output
1.1.1 Dairy Cattle Farming Distribution
1.1.2 Small Expansion of Dairy Cattle Inventory
1.1.3 Slight Increase of Per-Cow Milk Yield
1.1.4 Slight Increase of Milk Yield
1.2 Dairy Cattle Farming Cost and Profit
1.2.1 Big Pressure from Dairy Cattle Farming Cost
1.2.2 Dairy Cattle Farming Profit Relatively Low
1.2.3 Comparative Analysis of Dairy Cattle Farming Cost and Profit in Major Provinces
1.3 Characteristics of Dairy Cattle Farming in China
1.3.1 Dairy Cattle Farming Mainly Relies on Small Farmers
1.3.2 Large-Scale Farming Mainly in Farming Community Mode
1.3.3 Low Proportion of Automation in Dairy Cattle Farming
1.3.4 Low Proportion of High Quality Raw Milk, Especially Organic Raw Milk Less than 1%
1.4 Influence of Dairy Cattle Farming Related Policies in China
1.4.1 Beginning Implementation of Alfalfa Planting Subsidy
1.4.2 Continuous Implementation of Subsidy for Superior Varieties
1.4.3 Continuous Supporting Construction of Standardized Farming Communities

PART TWO: 2012 DAIRY INDUSTRY ANALYSIS IN CHINA
2.1 Dairy Output
2.1.1 Dairy Output Drastically Increased to 25.45 Million MT
2.1.2 Increase of Liquid Milk, Milk Powder and Other Solid Dairy Products Output
2.2 Distribution of Dairy Production
2.2.1 Distribution of Dairy Production by Province
2.2.1.1 Dairy Enterprises in Different Provinces
2.2.1.2 Dairy Production Capacity by Province
2.2.1.3 Dairy Output by Province
2.2.2 Distribution of Liquid Milk Production by Province
2.2.3 Distribution of Milk Powder & Infant Milk Powder Production by Province
2.3 Influence of Dairy Industry Related Policies in China
2.3.1 New VAT Input Tax Offset Method for Dairy Processing Industry
2.3.2 Growth of Cow Colostrum Market Size to Slow Down in Coming 2-3 Years

PART THREE: 2012 DAIRY FARMING & DAIRY IMPORT & EXPORT
3.1 Hay Import and Export
3.1.1 Hay Imports & Exports in 2012
3.1.2 Alfalfa Import Volume & Price in 2012
3.2 Dairy Cattle Import
3.2.1 Dairy Cattle Imports Reached 0.13 Million Heads in 2012
3.2.2 Uruguay Originated Cattle as 30,000 Heads or Over 20% of Total Imports
3.3 Dairy Trade
3.3.1 Dairy Imports Increased Significantly
3.3.2 Non-Fermented Liquid Milk Import and Export
3.3.2.1 Liquid Milk Imports Reached 0.1 Million MT, Far Higher than Exports
3.3.2.2 Liquid Milk with 1-6% Fat Content as the Major Import Category
3.3.2.3 Imports from Germany and Australia Up Greatly
3.3.3 Milk Powder Import and Export
3.3.3.1 Milk Powder Imports Amounted to 0.57 Million MT
3.3.3.2 SMP & No-Added-Sugar WMP Still as Major Import Categories
3.3.3.3 Milk Powder Import Price Still on High Level
3.3.3.4 New Zealand Originated Milk Powder Up Significantly
3.3.4 Whey Powder Import
3.3.4.1 Whey Powder Imports Increased
3.3.4.2 Import Whey Powder Mainly from US & EU
3.3.4.3 Whey Powder Import Price Rose to 1956 USD/MT
3.3.5 Cheese Import
3.3.5.1 Cheese Imports Increased to 40,000 MT, Up 36% from 2011
3.3.5.2 Import Cheese Mainly from New Zealand, Australia and US
3.4 Dairy Related Products Import
3.4.1 Casein Import
3.4.2 Whey Protein Concentrate (WPC) Import
3.4.3 Lactose Anhydrous Import
3.4.4 Ice Cream Import
3.4.5 Infant Food Import
3.4.6 Special Infant Formula Import
3.5 Influence of China Dairy Import Policies
3.5.1 China \"2013 Tariff Implementation Scheme\"
3.5.2 Tariff Down Causes Limited Impact on Infant Formula Market Price
3.5.3 Overseas Purchasing Volume of Infant Formula May Drop
3.5.4 Imports of Special Infant Formula to Grow Significantly

PART FOUR: 2012 RAW MILK & DAIRY CONSUMPTION IN CHINA
4.1 CHARACTERISTICS OF RAW MILK CONSUMPTION
4.1.1 Raw Milk Mainly from Milking Stations
4.1.2 Higher Proportion for UHT Milk Production, Proportion for Milk Powder Similar to 2011
4.1.3 Cost Difference between Domestic and Import Raw Milk in Infant Formula Production Lessened
4.2 Characteristics of Dairy Consumption
4.2.1 UHT Milk\'s Proportion in Liquid Milk Consumption Increased
4.2.2 Quick Development of High-End Liquid Milk Market
4.2.3 Infant Formula Consumption Still Concentrated on Foreign Brands
4.3 Dairy Consumption Volume
4.3.1 Changes in UHT Milk Consumption Volume in China
4.3.2 Changes in Yogurt Consumption Volume in China
4.3.3 Changes in Pasteurized Milk Consumption Volume in China
4.3.4 Changes in Milk Powder Consumption Volume in China
4.3.5 Changes in Infant Formula Consumption Volume in China

PART FIVE: 2012 PRICES OF RAW MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS AND DAIRY PRODUCT PROCESSING MARGIN
5.1 Raw Milk Price on High Level
5.2 Changes in Liquid Milk Products Prices
5.2.1 Changes in UHT Milk Price
5.2.2 Changes in Yogurt Price
5.3 Changes in Milk Powder Price
5.3.1 Changes in Domestic & Foreign-Brand Infant Formula Prices
5.3.2 Changes in Adult Milk Powder Price
5.4 Changes in Fonterra Dairy Products Auction Prices
5.4.1 Changes in Milk Powder Auction Price
5.4.2 Changes in AMF & Cheese Auction Prices
5.5 Dairy Production Cost and Benefit
5.5.1 Big Pressure from Dairy Processing Cost
5.5.2 Processing Margin & Net Profit Margin Both Increased

PART SIX: 2012 MAJOR DAIRY FARMING AND DAIRY PRODUCING ENTERPRISES IN CHINA
6.1 Top 20 Dairy Farming Enterprises
6.1.1 Distribution
6.1.2 Production Concentration Ratio
6.1.3 Farming Scale
6.1.4 New Large-Scale Dairy Farms in 2012
6.2 Top 10 UHT Milk Enterprises (Groups) in China
6.2.1 Distribution
6.2.2 Production Concentration Ratio
6.2.3 Raw Milk Sources
6.2.4 Product Level
6.2.5 2012 New Developments of China Liquid Milk Market
6.3 Top 15 Infant Formula Enterprises in China
6.3.1 Distribution
6.3.2 Production Concentration Ratio
6.3.3 Raw Materials Sources
6.3.4 Product Level
6.3.5 2012 New Developments of China Infant Formula Market

PART SEVEN: FORECAST ON 2013 CHINA DAIRY FARMING & DAIRY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT
7.1 Forecast on Dairy Farming and Raw Milk Production
7.1.1 Dairy Cattle Farms above Designated Size to Cover 40% of National Dairy Cattle Inventory
7.1.2 Dairy Cattle Inventory to Reach 14.5 Million Heads, Raw Milk Output 38.8 Million MT
7.1.3 Raw Milk Shortage to Reach 3-4 Million MT
7.1.4 Raw Milk Price to Stay on High Level
7.1.5 Dairy Farming Cost around 15,000 RMB/Head
7.1.6 Dairy Farm Margin to Be 2,000 RMB/Head
7.2 Forecast on 2013 China Dairy Output
7.2.1 Dairy Output to Increase to 28 Million MT
7.2.2 Liquid Milk Output to Increase to 23 Million MT
7.2.3 Milk Powder Output to Stay around 1.4 Million MT
7.3 Forecast on 2013 Dairy Cattle & Dairy Products Import and Export
7.3.1 Alfalfa Imports to Reach 0.6 Million MT
7.3.2 Dairy Cattle Imports to Stay around 0.13 Million Heads
7.3.3 Dairy Products Imports to Keep Growing
7.3.4 Milk Powder Imports to Exceed 0.6 Million MT, Import Price to Grow
7.3.5 Whey Powder Imports to Reach 0.4 Million MT
7.3.6 Cheese Imports to Reach 45,000 MT
7.3.7 Liquid Milk and Milk Powder Exports to Increase Slightly
7.3.8 Forecast on 2013 Imports of Dairy Related Products
7.4 Forecast on 2013 China Dairy Consumption
7.4.1 Dairy Consumption Volume to Reach to 30 Million MT
7.4.2 Dairy Products Prices to Stay on High Level
7.5 Forecast on 2013 Raw Milk Supply and Demand in China
7.6 Forecast on 2013 Dairy Products Supply and Demand in China

ADDENDUM: EVENTS IN CHINA DAIRY INDUSTRY IN 2012
Policies & Announcements
Product Safety Events
Investment & Merger

List of Table


Table 1, Feed Prices and Dairy Farming Costs in Major Milk Producing Provinces, 2009-2012
Table 2, Raw Milk Prices and Dairy Farming Margin in Major Milk Producing Provinces, 2009-2012
Table 3, Raw Milk Prices and Dairy Farming Costs & Benefits in Major Milk Producing Provinces, 2011-2012
Table 4, Differences among Main Dairy Farming Models in China
Table 5, Proportions of Automation-Equipment-Applied Farms in Different Farming Scales
Table 6, Subsidy Amounts for Superior Dairy Cattle Varieties in China, 2010-2012
Table 7, Milk Powder Import Volumes & Prices by Product Category, 2011-2012
Table 8, Whey Powder Import Volumes & Prices by Source Country, 2011-2012
Table 9, 2013 Import Tariff Rates for Dairy Related Products
Table 10, Raw Milk Distribution Channels and Proportions for Different Farming Scales
Table 11, Costs for Infant Formula Production with Domestic Raw Milk and Import Materials in China, 2010-2012
Table 12, Shares of Yogurts of Different Flavors in China Yogurt Market, 2006-2012
Table 13, Shares of Milk Powders for Different Age Groups in China Milk Powder Market, 2006-2012
Table 14, Costs for Liquid Milk and Infant Formula Production in China, 2010-2012
Table 15, Prices and Processing Margin of Liquid Milk & Infant Formula in China, 2010-2012
Table 16, Cattle Inventory, Milk Output of Top 20 Dairy Farming Enterprises
Table 17, Affiliated Farms with over 10,000 Heads Cattle Inventory of Top 20 Dairy Farming Enterprises
Table 18, 2012 New Large-Scale Dairy Farms in China
Table 19, Market Shares of Major UHT Milk Enterprises in China
Table 20, Product Levels of Major UHT Milk Enterprises in China
Table 21, 2012 Developments of Liquid Milk Enterprises in China
Table 22, Market Shares of Major Infant Formula Enterprises in China
Table 23, Raw Materials Sources of Major Infant Formula Brands in China, 2011
Table 24, Product Levels & Packaging Types of Major Infant Formula Brands in China
Table 25, 2012 Developments of Infant Formula Enterprises in China
Table 26, Forecast on 2013 Raw Milk Supply-Demand Balance in China
Table 27, Forecast on 2013 Dairy Supply-Demand Balance in China
Attached Table 1, Dairy Cattle Inventory by Province, 2007-2012
Attached Table 2, Per-Cow Yield of Adult Dairy Cattle by Province, 2007-2012
Attached Table 3, Raw Milk Output by Province, 2006-2012
Attached Table 4, Dairy Output by Province, 2006-2012
Attached Table 5, Liquid Milk Output by Province, 2006-2012
Attached Table 6, Milk Powder Output by Province, 2010-2012
Attached Table 7, Raw Milk Processing Capacity by Province, 2008-2012
Attached Table 8, China\'s Dairy Imports by Tariff Item, 2006-2012
Attached Table 9, China\'s Dairy Exports by Tariff Item, 2006-2012

List of Chart


Map 1, Dairy Cattle Inventory by Province
Map 2, Distribution of Organic Liquid Milk Enterprises in China
Map 3, Distribution of TOP 20 Dairy Farming Enterprises in China
Map 4, Distribution of Production Bases of Mengniu Group in China
Map 5, Distribution of Production Bases of Shanghai Bright Dairy in China
Map 6, Distribution of Production Bases of Other Major Dairy Enterprises in China
Map 7, Distribution of TOP 15 Infant Formula Enterprises in China
List of Figures
Figure 1, Changes in Dairy Cattle Inventory in China, 1973-2012
Figure 2, Dairy Cattle Inventory by Province in 2012
Figure 3, Per-Cow Raw Milk Yield in China, 1973-2012
Figure 4, National Average and Provincial Average Per-Adult-Cow Raw Milk Yield in China, 2005-2012
Figure 5, Changes in Raw Milk Yield in China, 1973-2012
Figure 6, Raw Milk Yield by Province in 2012
Figure 7, Corn and Soybean Meal Prices in Major Milk Producing Provinces, 2008-2012
Figure 8, Raw Milk Price and Dairy Farming Margin in Major Milk Producing Provinces, 2008-2012
Figure 9, Dairy Cattle Inventory Covered by Different Farming Sizes in 2012
Figure 10, Dairy Products Output and Growth Rate in China, 2000-2012
Figure 11, Liquid Milk Output and Growth Rate in China, 2000-2012
Figure 12, Solid Dairy Products Output and Growth Rate in China, 2000-2012
Figure 13, Milk Powder Output and Growth Rate in China, 2000-2012
Figure 14, Numbers of Dairy Enterprises by Province in 2012
Figure 15, Raw Milk Processing Capacity by Province in 2012
Figure 16, Dairy Products Output by Province in 2012
Figure 17, Liquid Milk Output by Province in 2012
Figure 18, Milk Powder Output by Province in 2012
Figure 19, Number of Infant Formula Enterprises by Province in 2012
Figure 20, China Hay Imports and Exports, 2005-2012
Figure 21, China Hay Imports by Source Country in 2012
Figure 22, China Alfalfa Imports, 2007-2012
Figure 23, China Alfalfa Import Price by Month, 2008-2012
Figure 24, China Dairy Cattle Imports, 2006-2012
Figure 25, Proportions of Import Dairy Cattle by Source Country in 2012
Figure 26, China Dairy Imports and Growth Rate, 2004-2012
Figure 27, China Dairy Imports by Product Category, 2004-2012
Figure 28, China Dairy Exports and Growth Rate, 2000-2012
Figure 29, China Dairy Export by Product Category, 2001-2012
Figure 30, China Non-Fermented Liquid Milk Imports and Exports, 2004-2012
Figure 31, China Non-Fermented Liquid Milk Imports by Product Category, 2003-2012
Figure 32, Non-Fermented Liquid Milk Imports by Source Country, 2004-2012
Figure 33, China Milk Powder Imports and Exports, 2003-2012
Figure 34, China Milk Powder Imports by Product Category, 2003-2012
Figure 35, China Milk Powder Import Prices by Source Country, 2004-2012 31
Figure 36, China Milk Powder Imports by Source Country, 2003-2012
Figure 37, China Whey Powder Imports and Growth Rate, 2003-2012
Figure 38, China Whey Powder Import Volume by Source Country in 2012
Figure 39, China Whey Powder Import Prices by Source Country, 2004-2012
Figure 40, China Cheese Imports and Growth Rate, 2000-2012
Figure 41, China Cheese Imports by Source Country, 2004-2012
Figure 42, China Casein Imports by Source Country, 2004-2012
Figure 43, China WPC Imports by Source Country, 2004-2012
Figure 44, China Lactose Anhydrous Imports by Source Country, 2004-2012
Figure 45, China Ice Cream Imports by Source Country, 2004-2012
Figure 46, China Infant Foods Imports by Source Country, 2009-2012
Figure 47, China Special Infant Formula Imports by Source Country, 2009-2012
Figure 48, China Special Infant Formula Imports, 2009-2012
Figure 49, Raw Milk Distribution for Different Farming Modes
Figure 50, Raw Milk Consumption in Milk Powder and Liquid Milk Production, 2000-2012
Figure 51, UHT Milk Share in China Liquid Milk Market, 2000-2012
Figure 52, China Non-Fermented Liquid Milk Imports by Source Country, 2004-2012
Figure 53, Foreign Brands Shares in China Infant Formula Market, 2004-2012
Figure 54, Dairy Consumption in China, 2001-2012
Figure 55, UHT Milk and Liquid Milk Consumption in China, 2001-2012
Figure 56, Yogurt Consumption in China, 2001-2012
Figure 57, Pasteurized Milk Consumption in China, 2001-2012
Figure 58, Milk Powder Consumption in China, 2001-2012
Figure 59, Infant Formula Consumption in China, 2000-2012
Figure 60, Raw Milk Prices in Main Producing Provinces by Month, 2006-2012
Figure 61, Raw Milk Price in Heilongjiang, Shandong & Henan by Month, 2008-2012
Figure 62, National Average UHT Milk Price in China by Month, 2009-2012
Figure 63, National Average Yogurt Price in China by Month, 2009-2012
Figure 64, National Average Infant Formula Prices of Foreign and Domestic Brands by Month, 2009-2012
Figure 65, National Average Adult Milk Powder Price by Month, 2009-2012
Figure 66, Fonterra Milk Powder Auction Hammer Price by Month, 2008-2012
Figure 67, Fonterra AMF & Cheese Auction Hammer Prices by Month, 2009-2012
Figure 68, Raw Milk Price and Milk Powder Import Price by Month, 2007-2012
Figure 69, UHT Milk & Yogurt Processing Margin by Month, 2009-2012
Figure 70, Producing Profit for Domestic & Foreign Infant Formula Brands by Month, 2009-2012
Figure 71, Forecast on 2013 Percentage of 100+ Head Inventory Dairy Farms in National Total
Figure 72, Forecast on 2013 China Dairy Cattle Inventory and Milk Output
Figure 73, Raw Milk Supply and Demand in China, 2008-2013
Figure 74, Forecast on 2013 China Raw Milk Price by Month
Figure 75, Forecast on 2013 China Dairy Output
Figure 76, Forecast on 2013 China Liquid Dairy Products Output
Figure 77, Forecast on 2013 China Milk Powder Output
Figure 78, Forecast on 2013 China Alfalfa Imports
Figure 79, Forecast on 2013 China Dairy Cattle Imports
Figure 80, Forecast on 2013 China Dairy Imports and Exports
Figure 81, Forecast on 2013 China Milk Powder Imports
Figure 82, China Milk Powder Import Price, 2009-2013
Figure 83, Forecast on 2013 China Whey Powder Imports
Figure 84, Forecast on 2013 China Cheese Imports
Figure 85, Forecast on 2013 China Liquid Milk, Yogurt and Milk Powder Consumption

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