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Carbonated Soft Drinks - US - June 2014

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Jul 2014

Category :

Soft Drinks

No. of Pages : 238 Pages


The carbonated soft drink market is continuing to decline as consumers are driven away by artificial sweeteners, high sugar content, and other ingredient concerns. The CSD category is an easy target as other beverages innovate and entice consumers away from sodas.
Table of Content

Scope and Themes
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms

Executive Summary
The market
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2009-19
Key players
Figure 2: MULO sales of carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2014
Regular soft drinks most popular with respondents
Figure 3: Purchasing habits for carbonated soft drinks – Any purchase, April 2014
Brand, price most important when shopping for CSDs
Figure 4: Carbonated soft drink purchasing attributes, April 2014
Flavor top reason for CSD consumption
Figure 5: Reasons for purchasing carbonated soft drinks, April 2014
Drinking other beverages top reason for not consuming CSDs
Figure 6: Reasons for not purchasing carbonated soft drinks, April 2014
Afternoons, evening most popular time to consume CSDs
Figure 7: Time of day for carbonated soft drink consumption, April 2014
Lunch, dinner most popular meal occasions for CSD consumption
Figure 8: Occasions for carbonated soft drink consumption, April 2014
CSD consumption at-home preferred
Figure 9: Locations for carbonated soft drink consumption, April 2014
What we think

Issues and Insights
Are consumers drinking other beverages to replace CSDs?
Facts
Insight: Increase usage by mimicking other categories
Is ingredient transparency drawing too much negative attention to CSDs?
Facts
Insight: Natural interests increasing
Soda Tax
Facts
Insight: “Accentuate the negative”

Trend Applications
Trend: Accentuate The Negative
Figure 10: Coca-Cola advert, grandpa—living a healthy lifestyle, August 12, 2013
Trend: Mood To Order
Figure 11: Coca-Cola, David Correythe World is Ours, September 11, 2013
Trend: Factory Fear

Market Size and Forecast
Key points
Carbonated soft drink sales decline forecast to continue
Sales and forecast of carbonated soft drink market
Figure 12: Total US retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 13: Total US retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Fan chart forecast
Figure 14: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2009-19

Market Drivers
Key points
Obesity concerns affect CSD consumption
Children in the household declining
Figure 15: US households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
Soda tax idea expands
Media focus on CSD category altering consumer perceptions

Competitive Context
Competition with other beverages
Figure 16: Frequency of non-alcoholic beverage consumption—Any consumption, November 2013
Figure 17: Percentage of new non-alcoholic beverage launches/new formulations, by sweetener, 2009-13

Segment Performance
Key points
Regular soft drinks see declines as diet drinks suffer
Sales of carbonated soft drink market, by segment
Figure 18: Total US retail sales of packaged carbonated soft drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2011 and 2013

Segment Performance—Regular Soft Drinks
Key points
Continued declines forecast for regular soft drink market
Sales and forecast of regular soft drinks
Figure 19: Total US retail sales of regular soft drinks, at current prices, 2009-19
Household regular CSD consumption declines
Figure 20: Household volume consumption of carbonated cola drinks (non-diet), November 2008-December 2013
Figure 21: Household volume consumption of other carbonated non-cola drinks (non-diet), November 2008-December 2013
Teen consumption declined in recent years, but steady from 2011-13
Figure 22: Teen volume consumption of carbonated cola drinks (non-diet), November 2008-December 2013
Figure 23: Teen volume consumption of other carbonated non-cola drinks (non-diet), November 2008-December 2013
Children aged 6-11 drinking less regular soft drinks
Figure 24: Kid volume consumption of regular cola drinks, November 2008-December 2013
Figure 25: Kid volume consumption of other soft drinks/soda pop, November 2008-December 2013

Segment Performance—Diet Soft Drinks
Key points
Diet soft drink segment continues to suffer
Sales and forecast of diet soft drinks
Figure 26: Total US retail sales of diet soft drinks, at current prices, 2009-19
Household consumption of diet soft drinks decreases
Figure 27: Household volume consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated cola soft drinks, November 2008-December 2013
Figure 28: Household volume consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated non-cola soft drinks, November 2008-December 2013
Teen diet cola consumption sees slight increases
Figure 29: Teen volume consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated cola soft drinks, November 2008-December 2013
Figure 30: Teen volume consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated non-cola soft drinks, November 2008-December 2013

Segment Performance—Seltzer/Tonic Water/Club Soda
Key points
Seltzer/tonic water/club soda segment sees growth
Sales and forecast of seltzer/tonic water/club soda
Figure 31: Total US retail sales of seltzer/tonic water/club soda, at current prices, 2009-19

Retail Channels
Key points
Other retail channel leads in CSD sales, drug stores only channel to see growth
Figure 32: Total US retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, by channel, 2012 and 2014
Figure 33: Total US retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, by channel, 2009-14
Natural Channels
Figure 34: Natural supermarket sales of carbonated beverages, at current prices, 2011-13*
Figure 35: Natural supermarket sales of carbonated beverages, by type of sweetener, 2011 and 2013*
Figure 36: Natural supermarket sales of carbonated beverages, by organic content, 2011 and 2013*

Leading Companies
Key points
Coca-Cola remains category leader, sees sales declines
PepsiCo is second in category, experiences largest declines
DPSG sees sales drop as it maintains its third place in leading companies
Private label continues to suffer as sales, market share decline
Manufacturer sales of market
Figure 37: MULO sales of carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014

Brand Share—Regular Soft Drinks
Key points
Coca-Cola leads regular soft drink segment
PepsiCo sees slight declines
Figure 38: Mountain Dew, Baja Blast, May 2014, 2014
DPSG sales remain flat
Private label struggles most in regular soft drink segment
Manufacturer sales of regular soft drink segment
Figure 39: MULO sales of regular soft drinks, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Dr Pepper Snapple Group highest household penetration, PepsiCo most loyal
Figure 40: Key purchase measures for the top regular carbonated soft drink brands, by household penetration, 52-weeks ending Feb. 24, 2013 (year ago) and Feb. 23, 2014 (current)
Consumption of regular soft drinks, by brand
Figure 41: Household volume consumption of carbonated cola drinks (non-diet), by age, November 2012-December 2013
Figure 42: Household volume consumption of other carbonated non-cola drinks (non-diet), by age, November 2012-December 2013

Brand Share—Diet Soft Drinks
Key points
Coca-Cola leads diet CSD segment, launches mid-calorie entry
PepsiCo experiences sales declines
DPSG expands low-calorie portfolio, sales fall flat
Sales fall for diet CSDs segment overall, private label sees sharpest decline
Manufacturer sales of diet soft drink segment
Figure 43: MULO sales of diet soft drinks, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014
Growth seen on DPSG household penetration, Coca-Cola brand loyalty
Figure 44: Key purchase measures for the low calorie carbonated soft drink brands, by household penetration, 52-weeks ending February 24, 2013 (year ago) and February 23, 2014 (current)
Diet Coke most consumed diet CSD
Figure 45: Household volume consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated cola soft drinks, by age, November 2012-December 2013
Figure 46: Household volume consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated non-cola soft drinks, by age, November 2012-December 2013

Brand Share—Seltzer/Tonic Water/Club Soda
Key points
Segment benefits from success of bottled water category, consumer focus on health
Manufacturer sales of the seltzer/tonic water/club soda segment
Figure 47: MULO sales of seltzers/tonic water/club soda, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014

Innovations and Innovators
Innovative flavors
The changing face of bottles and cans
Natural and functional

Marketing Strategies
Overview of the brand landscape
Theme: Reality Advertising and Disrupting Public Spaces
Mountain Dew Kickstart
Figure 48: Mountain Dew, Get a Visit from Kicks the Koala, March 26, 2014
Sprite Refresher
Figure 49: Sprite Zero, Refresher, May 2, 2014
Pepsi #Halftime Vending Machine
Figure 50: Pepsi, Pepsi#Halftime: Vending Machine, 2014
Theme: Soft drinks and celebrity
Dr Pepper’s “/1”
Figure 51: Dr Pepper, /1 Macklemore & Ryan Lewis, January 20, 2014
Lebron James’ Sprite 6 Mix
Figure 52: Sprite 6 Mix, #ChangeTheGame with Lebron James and Sprite 6 Mix, 2014
Taylor Swift’s Relatability
Figure 53: Diet Coke, Diet Coke, You’re On, 2014
Theme: Marketing to Men
This is How We Dew
Figure 54: Mtn Dew, Living Portraits, 2014
Dr Pepper TEN Bold Country
Figure 55: Dr Pepper TEN, Dr Pepper TEN Bold Country, 2014
Theme: Soda as an ethical purchase
Coca-Cola’s America is Beautiful
Figure 56: Coca-Cola, America the Beautiful, 2014
7Up’s Project7
Figure 57: Project7Videos, 7UP/Project7-Make Your Bottle Count, Jan. 11, 2014
Coca-Cola’s Happiness Arcade
Figure 58: Coca-Cola, Happiness Arcade, 2014

Social Media—Carbonated Soft Drinks
Key points
Market overview
Key social media metrics
Figure 59: Key social media metrics, May 2014
Brand usage and awareness
Figure 60: Brand usage and awareness for selected carbonated soft drink brands, April 2014
Interactions with carbonated soft drinks brands
Figure 61: interactions with selected carbonated soft drinks brands, April 2014
Leading online campaigns
Sports partnerships
Encouraging an active lifestyle
Marketing to men
What we think
Online conversations
Figure 62: Online conversations for selected carbonated soft drinks, by day, May 23, 2013-May 22, 2014
Where are people talking about carbonated soft drinks brands?
Figure 63: Online conversations for selected carbonated soft drinks, by page type, May 1, 2013-April 30, 2014
What are people talking about?
Figure 64: Topics of conversation around selected carbonated soft drinks brands, May 1, 2013-April 30, 2014

Consumer Purchasing Habits of Carbonated Soft Drinks
Key points
Men most likely to purchase CSDs
Figure 65: Purchasing habits for carbonated soft drinks – Any purchase, by gender, April 2014
Millennial, young Generation X respondents most likely to purchase CSDs
Figure 66: Purchasing habits for carbonated soft drinks – Any purchase, by age, April 2014
Figure 67: Purchasing habits for carbonated soft drinks – More, by age, April 2014
Figure 68: Purchasing habits for carbonated soft drinks – More, by age and household income, April 2014
Households with children significantly more likely to buy CSDs
Figure 69: Purchasing habits for carbonated soft drinks – Any purchase, by presence of children in household, April 2014
Figure 70: Purchasing habits for carbonated soft drinks – More, by presence of children in household, April 2014
Hispanics high CSD users, most likely to be interested in natural offerings
Figure 71: Purchasing habits for carbonated soft drinks – Any purchase, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
Figure 72: Purchasing habits for carbonated soft drinks – More, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014

Carbonated Soft Drink Product Attributes
Key points
Name brands, multi-packs, in-store promotions preferred by older consumers
Figure 73: Carbonated soft drink purchasing attributes, by age, April 2014
Whites most likely to look for promotions, preferred flavors
Figure 74: Carbonated soft drink purchasing attributes, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014

Time of Day CSD Usage
Key points
Afternoon CSD consumption most popular with respondents
Figure 75: Time of day for carbonated soft drink consumption, April 2014
Hispanics most likely to consume CSDs in the morning
Figure 76: Time of day for carbonated soft drink consumption – Morning, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
In the afternoon, younger consumers prefer regular, older prefer diet
Figure 77: Time of day for carbonated soft drink consumption – Afternoon, by age, April 2014
Whites most likely to consume diet CSDs in the afternoon
Figure 78: Time of day for carbonated soft drink consumption – Afternoon, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
Blacks, Hispanics slightly increase evening CSD consumption
Figure 79: Time of day for carbonated soft drink consumption – Evening, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014

Meal Occasion CSD Usage
Key points
Lunch most popular meal occasion
Figure 80: Occasions for carbonated soft drink consumption, April 2014
CSD meal occasion consumption driven by younger consumers
Figure 81: Occasions for carbonated soft drink consumption, by age, April 2014

CSD Usage by Location
Key points
At-home top CSD consumption location
Figure 82: Locations for carbonated soft drink consumption, April 2014
Younger respondents drink regular, older respondents drink diet at-home
Figure 83: Locations for carbonated soft drink consumption – At-home, by age, April 2014
Figure 84: Locations for carbonated soft drink consumption – When eating at a restaurant (including fountain drinks), by age, April 2014
Younger consumers dominate CSD usage on-the-go, at school or work
Figure 85: Locations for carbonated soft drink consumption – On-the-go (eg running errands, shopping, driving), by age, April 2014
Figure 86: Locations for carbonated soft drink consumption – At work/school, by age, April 2014

Reasons for Purchasing Carbonated Soft Drinks
Key points
Flavor top reasons for CSD consumption
Figure 87: Reasons for purchasing carbonated soft drinks, by age, April 2014
Hispanics most likely to drink CSDs for energy
Figure 88: Reasons for purchasing carbonated soft drinks, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014

Reasons for Not Purchasing Carbonated Soft Drinks
Key points
Other beverage consumption top reason for not purchasing CSDs
Figure 89: Reasons for not purchasing carbonated soft drinks, April 2014
Women lower CSD users than men
Figure 90: Purchasing habits for carbonated soft drinks – Low user, by gender, April 2014
Older consumers lowest users of most CSDs; more than half of all are decreasing diet purchases
Figure 91: Purchasing habits for carbonated soft drinks – Low user, by age, April 2014
Households without children are lower CSD users than those with children
Figure 92: Purchasing habits for carbonated soft drinks – Low user, by presence of children in household, April 2014

Attitudes Toward Carbonated Soft Drink Varieties
Key points
Opportunities in natural sweeteners, ingredients for young consumers
Figure 93: Attitudes toward carbonated soft drink varieties – Any agree, by age, April 2014
Households with children most likely to prefer natural sweeteners, see benefits of low- or mid-calorie CSDs
Figure 94: Attitudes toward carbonated soft drink varieties – Any agree, by presence of children in household, April 2014
Hispanics, other races hold strongest opinions regarding sweeteners in CSDs
Figure 95: Attitudes toward carbonated soft drink varieties – Any agree, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014

Attitudes and Behaviors Toward Competition, Innovation
Key points
Natural soft drinks have potential with older consumers, new flavors offer ties into functionality
Figure 96: Attitudes and behaviors toward carbonated soft drinks, by age, April 2014

Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
Figure 97: Purchasing habits for carbonated soft drinks – Any purchase, by generation, April 2014
Figure 98: Purchasing habits for carbonated soft drinks – More, by generation, April 2014
Figure 99: Purchasing habits for carbonated soft drinks – More, by gender, April 2014
Figure 100: Purchasing habits for carbonated soft drinks – Any purchase, by gender, April 2014
Figure 101: Purchasing habits for carbonated soft drinks – Any purchase, by age, April 2014
Figure 102: Purchasing habits for carbonated soft drinks – More, by age, April 2014
Figure 103: Purchasing habits for carbonated soft drinks – More, by age and household income, April 2014
Figure 104: Purchasing habits for carbonated soft drinks – More, by presence of children in household, April 2014
Figure 105: Purchasing habits for carbonated soft drinks – Any purchase, by presence of children in household, April 2014
Figure 106: Purchasing habits for carbonated soft drinks – Any purchase, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
Figure 107: Purchasing habits for carbonated soft drinks – More, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
Figure 108: Carbonated soft drink purchasing attributes, by presence of children in household, April 2014
Figure 109: Carbonated soft drink purchasing attributes, by generation, April 2014
Figure 110: Time of day for carbonated soft drink consumption – Morning, by gender, April 2014
Figure 111: Time of day for carbonated soft drink consumption – Morning, by age, April 2014
Figure 112: Time of day for carbonated soft drink consumption – Evening, by age, April 2014
Figure 113: Occasions for carbonated soft drink consumption – With lunch, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
Figure 114: Occasions for carbonated soft drink consumption – With dinner, by gender, April 2014
Figure 115: Occasions for carbonated soft drink consumption – As a snack on its own, by age, April 2014
Figure 116: Occasions for carbonated soft drink consumption – With lunch, by age, April 2014
Figure 117: Occasions for carbonated soft drink consumption – As a treat, by age, April 2014
Figure 118: Occasions for carbonated soft drink consumption – With dinner, by age, April 2014
Figure 119: Occasions for carbonated soft drink consumption – With a snack, by age, April 2014
Figure 120: Occasions for carbonated soft drink consumption – With dinner, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
Figure 121: Occasions for carbonated soft drink consumption – With a snack, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014
Figure 122: Reasons for purchasing carbonated soft drinks, by generation, April 2014
Figure 123: Attitudes toward carbonated soft drink varieties, April 2014
Figure 124: Attitudes toward carbonated soft drink varieties – Any agree, by gender, April 2014
Figure 125: Attitudes toward carbonated soft drink varieties – Any agree, by generation, April 2014
Figure 126: Attitudes and behaviors toward carbonated soft drinks, by generation, April 2014
Figure 127: Attitudes and behaviors toward carbonated soft drinks, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2014

Appendix: Social Media—Carbonated Soft Drinks
Brand usage or awareness
Figure 128: Brand usage or awareness, April 2014
Figure 129: Coca-Cola usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 130: Diet Pepsi usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 131: Sprite usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 132: Fanta usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 133: Mountain Dew usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 134: Dr Pepper Ten usage or awareness, by demographics, April 2014
Activities done
Figure 135: Activities done, April 2014
Figure 136: Coca-Cola – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 137: Coca-Cola – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 138: Coca-Cola – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 139: Coca-Cola – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 140: Diet Pepsi – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 141: Diet Pepsi – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 142: Sprite – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 143: Sprite – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 144: Sprite – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 145: Fanta – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 146: Fanta – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 147: Fanta – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 148: Mountain Dew – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 149: Mountain Dew – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 150: Mountain Dew – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 151: Dr Pepper Ten – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, April 2014
Figure 152: Dr Pepper Ten – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, April 2014
Key social media metrics
Figure 153: Key social media metrics – Coca-Cola, May 2014
Figure 154: Key social media metrics – Sprite, May 2014
Figure 155: Key social media metrics – Mountain Dew, May 2014
Figure 156: Key social media metrics – Fanta, May 2014
Figure 157: Key social media metrics – Diet Pepsi, May 2014
Figure 158: Key social media metrics – Dr Pepper TEN, May 2014
Online conversations
Figure 159: Online conversations for selected carbonated soft drinks, by day, May 23, 2013-May 22, 2014
Figure 160: Online conversations for selected carbonated soft drinks, by page type, May 1, 2013-April 30, 2014
Figure 161: Topics of conversation around selected carbonated soft drinks brands, May 1, 2013-April 30, 2014

Appendix: Information Resources Inc. Builders Panel Data Definitions
Information Resources Inc. Consumer Network Metrics

Appendix: Trade Associations

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