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Carbonated Soft Drinks - US - June 2013

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Jun 2013

Category :

Soft Drinks

No. of Pages : 219 Pages


Carbonated soft drink manufacturers are faced with a challenging marketplace in which they are battling not only to retain current users who are being encouraged to make healthy choices, but also to regain consumers who have already sought out alternatives. Companies are hedging bets on multiple packaging sizes, flavor innovations, and reduced-calorie formats to give consumers the variety that fits their personal preferences and lifestyles.

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • What can the industry do to improve its image in difficult times?
  • What new occasions or opportunities are available for soft drinks?
  • Can slumping sales of diet soft drinks be reversed?
  • What is the next emerging soft drink alternative segment?
TABLE OF CONTENT

Scope and Themes

What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Advertising creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms

Executive Summary

Overview
The market
Price increases help to avoid flat carbonated soft drink sales
Figure 1: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2007-17
Diet soft drinks suffering from worst volume declines, seltzer a bright spot
Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales of packaged carbonated soft drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2010 and 2012
Market factors
Soda bans place fresh pressure on an industry already under fire
Population growth among racial, ethnic groups could boost industry
Households with children decline at the same time as volume consumption drops
Figure 3: Net purchase of carbonated soft drinks, by intended audience, March 2013
Retail channels
Price, convenience drive retail channel choice for carbonated soft drinks
Key players
Three major CSD manufacturers continue to dominate market, despite declining sales
Figure 4: MULO sales of carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks, 2012-13
The consumer
Younger men most likely to purchase regular soft drinks
Figure 5: Purchase of carbonated soft drinks, by calorie level, by gender and age, March 2013
Name brand, flavor more important attributes for purchase than low price
Figure 6: Top three product qualities influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by race and Hispanic origin, March 2013
Soft drinks losing their place as a favorite beverage, more apt to be a treat
Figure 7: Reasons for personal consumption of carbonated soft drinks, by favorite vs. treat, by generation, March 2013
What we think

Issues and Insights

What can the industry do to improve its image in difficult times?
Insight: Continue education and outreach
What new occasions or opportunities are available for soft drinks?
Insight: Emphasize the possibility of pairing
Can slumping sales of diet soft drinks be reversed?
Insight: Continue to market to middle-aged consumers, especially men
What is the next emerging soft drink alternative segment?
Insight: Continue to push natural, yet bubbly options

Trend Applications

Trend: Collective Intelligence
Trend: Extend My Brand
Mintel Futures: Brand Intervention

Market Size and Forecast

Key points
CSDs continually losing sparkle with future sales slated to be flat
Figure 8: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
Figure 9: Total U.S. retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2007-17
Figure 10: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
Fan chart forecast
Figure 11: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2007-17

Market Drivers

Key points
Soda bans place fresh pressure on an industry already under fire
Sweetener sensitivities create hurdles for manufacturers
Figure 12: Agreement with attitudes toward sweeteners in carbonated soft drinks, by purchase of carbonated soft drinks, March 2013
Figure 13: Sweetener qualities influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by purchase of carbonated soft drinks, March 2013
Population growth among racial, ethnic groups could boost industry
Figure 14: Purchase of carbonated soft drinks by calorie level, by race and Hispanic origin, March 2013
Drop in households with children detrimental for soft drink makers
Figure 15: Purchase of carbonated soft drinks, by presence of children in household, March 2013
Figure 16: Product qualities influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by presence of children in household, March 2013
Figure 17: Any personal consumption of soft drinks, by type, by presence of children in household, March 2013
Soft drink volume consumption declining among kids, teens
Figure 18: Teen consumption of soft drinks, October 2007-November 2012
Figure 19: Purchase of carbonated soft drinks, by audience, March 2013
Figure 20: Kid consumption of regular cola and other regular soft drinks, October 2007-November 2012

Competitive Context

Key points
Water showcases growth as consumers cut back on sweetened drinks
Figure 21: Change in personal non-alcoholic drinking habits, by category, November 2012
Sparkling water offers particular advantages as a CSD alternative
Ready-to-drink teas, energy drinks also suffer from sugar concerns

Segment Performance

Key points
Diet suffers declines as consumers trade away, while seltzer shines
Figure 22: Total U.S. retail sales of packaged carbonated soft drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2010 and 2012

Segment Performance – Regular Soft Drinks

Key points
At current prices, regular soft drinks fall flat; with inflation, they decline
Figure 23: Sales and forecast of regular soft drinks, at current prices, 2007-17
Figure 24: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of regular soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
Volume consumption falling across both full-calorie cola, flavors
Figure 25: Adult consumption of regular carbonated cola and non-cola drinks, October 2007-November 2012
Younger blacks, Hispanics lead volume consumption of full-calorie cola
Figure 26: Adult consumption of regular carbonated cola drinks, by race and age, October 2011-November 2012
Figure 27: Adult consumption of regular carbonated cola drinks, by Hispanic origin and age, October 2011-November 2012
Volume consumption of flavored full-calorie soft drinks exceeds colas
Figure 28: Adult consumption of other regular carbonated non-cola soft drinks, by race and hispanic origin, October 2011-November 2012
Despite cutbacks, black teens continue to report high volume use
Figure 29: Teen consumption of regular cola drinks, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2011-November 2012
Figure 30: Teen consumption of other regular carbonated non-cola soft drinks, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2011-November 2012
Kids aged 9-11 report high rates of consumption, but volume is falling
Figure 31: Kid consumption of regular cola drinks, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2011-November 2012
Figure 32: Kid consumption of regular other soft drinks, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2011-November 2012

Segment Performance – Diet Soft Drinks

Key points
Diet segment suffering, but forecast not so bleak as loyalists remain
Figure 33: Sales and forecast of diet soft drinks, at current prices, 2007-17
Figure 34: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of diet soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
Usage, volume consumption falling across diet soft drink segments
Figure 35: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated cola and non-cola soft drinks, October 2007-November 2012
Middle-aged respondents report higher volume consumption of diet cola
Figure 36: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated cola soft drinks, by gender and age, October 2011-November 2012
Men of all ages are most likely to reach for flavored diet soft drinks
Figure 37: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated other soft drinks, by gender and age, October 2011-November 2012
Teen girls grasp onto diet, although volume consumption dropping

Segment Performance – Seltzer Water

Key points
Seltzer, tonic water, club soda surge among new beverage seekers
Figure 38: Sales and forecast of seltzer/tonic water/club soda, at current prices, 2007-17
Figure 39: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of seltzer water/tonic water/club soda, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
Most seltzer water brands see growth between 2012 and 2013
Figure 40: MULO sales of seltzer/tonic water/club soda, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
Lack of artificial sweeteners, new flavors drive seltzer water purchase
Figure 41: Product qualities influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by purchase of seltzer water, March 2013
Single-serving packaging, increased marketing influential for seltzer
Figure 42: Packaging and promotions influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by purchase of seltzer water, March 2013
Refreshment main motivator for seltzer water consumption
Figure 43: Reasons for personal consumption of carbonated soft drinks, by purchase for personal consumption of seltzer water, March 2013

Retail Channels

Key points
Other retail channel maintains dominance, drug stores see growth
Figure 44: Total U.S. retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, by channel, at current prices, 2007-12
Figure 45: U.S. retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, by channel, 2010 and 2012

Leading Companies

Key points
Three major CSD manufacturers, private label all see drop in sales
Figure 46: MULO sales of carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
Coca-Cola pushes online interaction, expands package size options
PepsiCo places spotlight on core brands Pepsi, Mtn Dew, Sierra Mist
Dr Pepper Snapple Group hedges bets on low-calorie lineup

Brand Share – Regular Soft Drinks

Key points
Flavored regular soft drinks outgrow colas, Pepsi Next makes entrance
Figure 47: MULO sales of regular carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
The cola wars return as Pepsi Next takes aim at Coca-Cola in viral video
Fanta expands animated campaign to promote play to global teens
Emphasis on natural elevates sales of Canada Dry Ginger Ale
Figure 48: Seagram’s ginger ale coupon flier, May 19, 2013
Black consumers should be a target for cherry flavored colas
Figure 49: Adult consumption of regular carbonated cola drinks, by race and age, October 2011-November 2012
Citrus flavored brands attract most multicultural users
Figure 50: Adult consumption of other regular carbonated non-cola soft drinks, by race and age, October 2011-November 2012
Figure 51: Adult consumption of other regular carbonated non-cola soft drinks, by Hispanic origin and age, October 2011-November 2012

Brand Share – Diet Soft Drinks

Key points
Masculine edge helps Dr Pepper Ten, Coke Zero outperform Diet brands
Figure 52: MULO sales of diet carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
Expansion of Ten lineup forgoes man-centric focus
Figure 53: 7 UP Ten, television ad, 2013
Coke Zero, Pepsi Max connect with younger men, women stick to diet
Figure 54: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated cola soft drinks, by gender and age, October 2011-November 2012
Flavored diet brands could capitalize on desire for variety
Figure 55: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated other soft drinks, by gender and age, October 2011-November 2012
Figure 56: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated other soft drinks, by Hispanic origin and age, October 2011-November 2012
Diet cola carves a niche with teen girls, while teen boys favor flavors
Figure 57: Teen consumption of top 10 carbonated diet or sugar-free cola drinks, by gender, October 2011-November 2012
Figure 58: Teen consumption of other carbonated diet or sugar-free soft drinks, by gender, October 2011-November 2012

Innovations and Innovators

Packaging changes emphasize portion control, limited editions
Figure 59: Carbonated soft drink launches, by launch type, April 2012-April 2013
Flavor experimentation could bring in curious consumers
Figure 60: Top 20 carbonated soft drink flavor introductions, April 2012-April 2013
Due to consumer skepticism, sweeteners the focus for some products
Packaging, flavor ideas provided by international innovations
Packaging
Flavors
Products

Marketing Strategies

Overview
Brand analysis: Coca-Cola
Online initiatives
TV presence
Figure 61: Coca-Cola, television ad, 2013
Figure 62: Coca-Cola, television ad, 2013
Figure 63: Coca-Cola coupon ad, May 19, 2013
Brand analysis: Diet Pepsi
Print and other
Figure 64: Diet Pepsi, print ad, April 2013
TV presence
Figure 65: Diet Pepsi, television ad, 2012
Brand analysis: Mountain Dew
Brand analysis: Dr Pepper
Figure 66: Dr Pepper, television ad, 2013
Brand analysis: Sprite
Figure 67: Sprite, television ad, 2012
Brand analysis: Zevia
Print and other
Figure 68: Zevia Pro-Soda Ban Ad, 2012

Social Media – Carbonated Soft Drinks

Key points
Social media metrics
Figure 69: Key performance indicators of selected carbonated soft drink brands, May 2013
Market overview
Brand usage and awareness
Figure 70: Usage and awareness of selected carbonated soft drink brands, March 2013
Interaction with carbonated soft drink brands
Figure 71: Interaction with carbonated soft drink brands, March 2013
Online conversations
Figure 72: Online conversations on selected carbonated soft drink brands, April 14-May 13, 2013
Figure 73: Online conversations on selected carbonated soft drink brands, by day, April 14-May 13, 2013
Where are people talking about carbonated beverages?
Figure 74: Online conversations on selected carbonated soft drink brands, by page type, April 14-May 13, 2013
What are people talking about?
Figure 75: Types of conversations around selected carbonated soft drink brands, April 14-May 13, 2013
Figure 76: Types of conversations around selected carbonated soft drink brands, by page type, April 14-May 13, 2013
Analysis by brand
Coca-Cola
Figure 77: Coca-Cola – key social media indicators, May 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Sprite
Figure 78: Sprite – key social media indicators, May 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Dr Pepper
Figure 79: Dr Pepper – key social media indicators, May 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Mountain Dew
Figure 80: Mountain Dew – key social media indicators, May 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Diet Pepsi
Figure 81: Diet Pepsi – key social media indicators, May 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Zevia
Figure 82: Zevia – key social media indicators, May 2013
Key campaigns
What we think

The Consumer – Purchase Preferences

Key points
Younger men most likely to purchase regular soft drinks
Figure 83: Purchase of carbonated soft drinks by calorie level, by gender and age, March 2013
Higher-income whites more likely to purchase diet soft drinks
Figure 84: Purchase of carbonated soft drinks by calorie level, by race and income, March 2013
Matrix, Millennial soft drink buyers interested in emerging CSD segments
Figure 85: Purchase of carbonated soft drinks, by generation, March 2013
Flavors appeal to younger buyers, cola the standard for older ones
Figure 86: Purchase of carbonated soft drinks, by flavor, by generation, March 2013
Possible crossover opportunity between low-calorie, other CSDs
Figure 87: Purchase of carbonated soft drinks, by net purchase of low- or mid-calorie soft drinks, March 2013

The Consumer – Purchase Motivations

Key points
Soft drinks losing their place as favored beverage, more apt to be a treat
Figure 88: Reasons for personal consumption of carbonated soft drinks, by generation, March 2013
Older consumers drawn in by brand, younger consumers by flavor
Figure 89: Product qualities influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by generation, March 2013
Younger men show preference for natural sweeteners
Figure 90: Agreement with attitudes toward sweeteners used in carbonated soft drinks, by gender and age, March 2013
Diet remains realm of older women, younger men open to low-calorie
Figure 91: Agreement with attitudes toward calorie level of carbonated soft drinks, by gender and age, March 2013
Single-serving, portion-controlled influential to young soft drink buyers
Figure 92: Packaging and promotions influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by age, March 2013
New flavors start outreach with package then smartphone marketing

The Consumer – Occasions for Personal Soft Drink Consumption

Key points
Anywhere, anytime the soft drink consumption motto for young men
Figure 93: Any personal consumption of soft drinks, by type, by gender and age, March 2013
Regular, diet show some variations in consumption time, place
Figure 94: Personal consumption of soft drinks by time, occasion, and location, by calorie level, March 2013
Consumption while socializing motivated by taste, refreshment
Figure 95: Reasons for personal consumption of carbonated soft drinks, by any personal consumption of soft drinks, by occasion, March 2013
At work, on-the-go consumption presents opportunities for placement
Figure 96: Reasons for personal consumption of carbonated soft drinks, by location, March 2013

Race and Hispanic Origin

Key points
Hispanics explore soft drink options, blacks focus on full-calorie flavors
Figure 97: Purchase of carbonated soft drinks, by race and Hispanic origin, March 2013
Other race consumers sensitive on sweeteners, blacks look for sugar
Figure 98: Sweetener qualities influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by race and Hispanic origin, March 2013
Lower-income other race respondents hard to break from regular habits
Figure 99: Agreement with attitudes toward sweeteners and calories in carbonated soft drinks, by race and income, March 2013
Calorie control is integral to lower-income Hispanics
Figure 100: Agreement with attitudes toward carbonated soft drinks, by Hispanic origin and income, March 2013
In-store promotions, coupons connect with other race soft drink buyers
Figure 101: Packaging and/or promotions influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by race and Hispanic origin, March 2013
Blacks give soft drinks highest marks for refreshment, flavor
Figure 102: Reasons for personal consumption of carbonated soft drinks, by race and Hispanic origin, March 2013
Hispanics stick to at-home consumption, blacks pair soda with dinner
Figure 103: Any personal consumption of soft drinks, by type, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2013

Information Resources Inc. Builders Panel Data

Key household purchase measures
Overview
Regular soft drinks
Brand map
Figure 104: Brand map, selected brands of regular soft drinks, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending June 24, 2012
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 105: Key purchase measures for the top brands of regular soft drinks, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending June 24, 2012
Diet soft drinks
Brand map
Figure 106: Brand map, selected brands of low calorie soft drinks, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending June 24, 2012
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 107: Key purchase measures for the top brands of regular soft drinks, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending June 24, 2012

Appendix – Market Drivers

Obesity
Figure 108: U.S. obesity, by age group, 2008 and 2012
Childhood and teen obesity – highest in decades
Figure 109: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1971-2010
Racial, ethnic population growth
Figure 110: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2008, 2013, and 2018
Figure 111: Households with children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2012
Shifting U.S. demographics
Figure 112: U.S. population, by age, 2008-18
Figure 113: Households, by presence of own children, 2002-12

Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables

Segment performance – Regular soft drinks
Figure 114: Adult consumption of regular carbonated cola drinks, October 2007-November 2012
Figure 115: Adult consumption of other regular carbonated non-cola soft drinks, October 2007-November 2012
Segment performance – Diet soft drinks
Figure 116: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated cola soft drinks, October 2007-November 2012
Figure 117: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated non-cola soft drinks, October 2007-November 2012
Figure 118: Teen consumption of carbonated diet or sugar-free cola drinks, gender and age, October 2011-November 2012
Figure 119: Teen consumption of other carbonated diet or sugar-free soft drinks, by gender and age, October 2011-November 2012
Brand share – Regular soft drinks
Figure 120: Adult consumption of regular carbonated cola drinks, by brand, October 2011-November 2012
Figure 121: Teen consumption of regular cola drinks, by brand, October 2011-November 2012
Figure 122: Kid consumption of regular cola drinks, by brand, October 2011-November 2012
Figure 123: Adult consumption of regular carbonated cola drinks, by brand, by Hispanic origin and age, October 2011-November 2012
Figure 124: Adult consumption of top 10 other regular carbonated non-cola soft drink brands, October 2011-November 2012
Figure 125: Teen consumption of top 10 other regular/carbonated non-cola soft drink brands, October 2011-November 2012
Figure 126: Kid consumption of top 10 other soft drink brands, October 2011-November 2012
Brand share – Diet soft drinks
Figure 127: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated cola soft drinks, by brand, October 2011-November 2012
Figure 128: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated cola soft drinks, by brand, October 2007-November 2012
Figure 129: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated cola soft drinks, by brand, by Hispanic origin and age, October 2011-November 2012
Figure 130: Adult consumption of diet or sugar-free carbonated other soft drinks, by brand, October 2011-November 2012
The consumer – Purchase preferences
Figure 131: Purchase of carbonated soft drinks, by gender and age, March 2013
Figure 132: Agreement with attitudes toward carbonated soft drinks, by any purchase (net) of carbonated soft drinks, March 2013
The consumer – Purchase motivations
Figure 133: Reasons for personal consumption of carbonated soft drinks, by gender and age, March 2013
Figure 134: Product qualities influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by net purchase of carbonated soft drinks, by calorie level and flavor, March 2013
Figure 135: Agreement with attitudes toward carbonated soft drinks, by presence of children in household, March 2013
Figure 136: Agreement with attitudes toward carbonated soft drinks, by generation, March 2013
Figure 137: Packaging and promotions influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by gender, March 2013
Figure 138: Packaging and promotions influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by purchase of carbonated soft drinks by calorie level, March 2013
The Consumer – Occasions for personal soft drink consumption
Figure 139: Any personal consumption of soft drinks, by type, by generation, March 2013
Race and Hispanic origin
Figure 140: Product qualities influencing carbonated soft drink purchases, by race and Hispanic origin, March 2013

Appendix – Social Media

Online conversations
Figure 141: Online conversations on selected carbonated soft drink brands, April 14-May 13, 2013
Figure 142: Online conversations on selected carbonated soft drink brands, by day, April 14-May 13, 2013
Figure 143: Online conversations on selected carbonated soft drink brands, by page type, April 14-May 13, 2013
Figure 144: Types of conversations around selected carbonated soft drink brands, April 14-May 13, 2013
Figure 145: Types of conversations around selected carbonated soft drink brands, by day, April 14-May 13, 2013
Figure 146: Types of conversations around selected carbonated soft drink brands, by page type, April 14-May 13, 2013
Brand usage and awareness
Figure 147: Brand usage and awareness, March 2013
Figure 148: Coca-Cola usage or awareness, by demographics, March 2013
Figure 149: Diet Pepsi usage or awareness, by demographics, March 2013
Figure 150: Dr Pepper usage or awareness, by demographics, March 2013
Figure 151: Mountain Dew usage or awareness, by demographics, March 2013
Figure 152: Sprite usage or awareness, by demographics, March 2013
Figure 153: Zevia usage or awareness, by demographics, March 2013
Activities Done
Figure 154: Interaction with carbonated soft drink brands, March 2013
Figure 155: Coca-Cola – Activities done, by demographics, March 2013
Figure 156: Diet Pepsi – Activities done, by demographics, March 2013
Figure 157: Dr Pepper – Activities done, by demographics, March 2013
Figure 158: Mountain Dew – Activities done, by demographics, March 2013
Figure 159: Sprite – Activities done, by demographics, March 2013

Appendix – Information Resources Inc. Builders Panel Data Definitions

Information Resources Inc. Consumer Network Metrics

Appendix – Trade Associations

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