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Bread and Baked Goods - UK - September 2014

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Sep 2014

Category :

Bakery Products

No. of Pages : 193 Pages


Education around bread’s value-for-money credentials must go hand-in-hand with innovation in areas such as healthy baked goods and snacking formats if brands are to address falling category sales.
Table of Content

Introduction
Definition
Bread
Sweet baked goods
Speciality bread
Excluded
Abbreviations

Executive Summary
The market
Figure 1: UK retail value sales of key bread and bakery goods, by segment, 2012-14
Forecast
Figure 2: UK retail value sales of bread and baked goods, 2009-19
Market factors
Changing lunchtime eating trends pose a threat to prepacked bread sales
Bread continues to face competition at breakfast
Good 2014/15 wheat harvest is expected
Companies, brands and innovation
Top three manufacturers hold over half of the market
Figure 3: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK bread and baked goods market, by value sales, 2013/14*
Branded launches reach four-year high in 2013
Adspend increases by a fifth in 2013
The consumer
Bread continues to enjoy near universal usage
Figure 4: Types of bread bought in the past three months, June 2013 and May 2014
Figure 5: Types of baked goods bought in the past three months, June 2013 and May 2014
Healthier products and on-the-go formats hold potential for NPD
Figure 6: Consumer interest in NPD in bread and baked goods, May 2014
Scope to promote sweet baked goods as an accompaniment to hot drinks
Figure 7: Users’ attitudes towards bread and baked goods, May 2014
What we think

Issues and Insights
A poor value-for-money perception poses a threat to market
The facts
The implications
Interest in single-pack and filled rolls can boost on-the-go usage
The facts
The implications
Marked openness to ‘light’ variants in baked goods
The facts
The implications

Trend Application
Mintel Trend: Play Ethic
Mintel Trend: Transumers
Mintel Futures Trend: Brand Intervention

Market Drivers
Key points
Fewer consumers are eating more homemade sandwiches
Figure 8: Agreement with the statement ‘I find I am eating more homemade sandwiches than I did a year ago’, March 2012-May 2014
Bread is vulnerable to growth in other breakfast products
Non-organic bread attracts negative press over claimed pesticide residues
2014/15 wheat harvest forecast to be good
Figure 9: UK weekly commodity prices, bread-making wheat, January 2009-July 2014
Figure 10: Index of UK retail price of bread, January 2009-July 2014
Growth in over-55s age group should support sales of sliced bread

Strengths and Weaknesses
Strengths
Weaknesses

Who’s Innovating?
Key points
Branded launches reach four-year high
Figure 11: New product development in the UK retail bread and bread products market, branded vs own-label, 2010-14
Tesco and Asda remain most active in NPD
Figure 12: New product launches in the UK retail bread and bread products market, by top 10 companies, 2010-14
Aldi and Tesco look to specialty bread
‘Mini’ launches abound in 2014
‘Microwaveable’ is fastest-growing claims category
Less than one in 10 launches bore a high/added-fibre claim in 2013
Figure 13: New product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by top 15 claims, 2010-14
Operators look to named origin to add authenticity and a point of difference

Market Size and Forecast
Key points
Market expected to dip into decline in 2014
Figure 14: UK retail value and volume sales of the total* bread and baked goods market, 2009-19
Forecast
Figure 15: UK retail value sales of the total bread and baked goods market*, 2009-19
Figure 16: UK retail volume sales of the total bread and baked goods market*, 2009-19
Forecast methodology

Segment Performance
Key points
Prepacked bread remains the largest segment but value falls
Figure 17: UK retail value sales of bread and baked goods, 2013 and 2014
Figure 18: UK retail volume sales of prepacked bread, 2009-14
White bread sees fastest decline in prepacked bread in 2014
Figure 19: UK retail sales of prepacked bread, by types, 2013 and 2014
Crumpets account for £1 in £5 spent on sweet baked goods
Figure 20: UK retail value sales of sweet baked goods, by type, 2012-14
Speciality bread expected to post marginal growth
Figure 21: UK retail value sales of speciality bread, by type, 2012-14
In-store bakeries’ growth slows
Figure 22: Retail value sales of in-store bakeries’ and baked goods, 2012-14

Market Share
Key points
The big three manufacturers account for over half of sales
Figure 23: Leading manufacturers’ estimated shares in the UK bread and baked goods retail market, by value sales, 2013/14*
Warburtons maintains the lead in prepacked bread
Figure 24: Leading brands in the UK prepacked bread retail market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
Kingsmill gains share at the expense of Hovis
Acquisitions in sweet baked goods likely to fuel investment
Figure 25: Leading brands in the UK sweet baked goods retail market, by value, 2012/13 and 2013/14
Wraps and bagels boost speciality brands
Figure 26: Leading brands in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2012/13 and 2013/14

Companies and Products
Allied Bakeries
Background
Product range
Product innovation
Recent activity and promotion
Aryzta
Background
Product range
Recent activity and promotion
Hovis Limited
Background
Product range
Product innovation
Recent activity
Promotion
Warburtons
Background
Product range
Product innovation
Recent activity
Promotion

Brand Advertising, Perceptions and Social Media
Key points
Brand advertising
Adspend increases by a fifth in 2013
Figure 27: Total advertising expenditure in the UK bread and baked goods market, 2010-14
Warburtons overtakes Allied in 2013 as biggest spender on ad space
Figure 28: Total advertising expenditure in the UK bread and baked goods market, by top 10 advertisers, 2010-14
Warburtons steps up adspend to target specific occasions
Allied Bakeries’ spend dips while New York Bakery Co steps up support for bagels
Asda spends big on seasonal-shaped crumpets
Support for TV dwarfs adspend on other media types
Figure 29: Total advertising expenditure in the UK bread and baked goods market, by media type, 2010-14
Brand perceptions
Key brand metrics
Figure 30: Key brand metrics, July 2014
Brand map
Figure 31: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the bread and baked goods sector, July 2014
Correspondence analysis
Brand attitudes
Figure 32: Attitudes, by bread and baked goods brand, July 2014
Brand personality
Figure 33: Bread and baked goods brand personality – Macro image, July 2014
Figure 34: Bread and baked goods brand personality – Micro image, July 2014
Brand usage
Figure 35: Bread and baked goods brand usage, July 2014
Brand experience
Figure 36: Bread and baked goods brand experience, July 2014
Social media and online buzz
Social media metrics
Figure 37: Social media metrics of selected bread and baked goods brands, July/August 2014
Bread brands encourage low number of mentions
Consumers appear happy to declare their favourite
Genius has larger number of followers on Twitter than most
Online mentions
Figure 38: Selected bread and baked goods brand shares of online mentions, 28 July 2013-2 August 2014
Warburtons and Hovis generally garner higher shares of brand conversation
Hovis conversation surrounds Premier Foods’ trouble
Reason to believe that interest in gluten-free brands may be increasing
Figure 39: Proportion of total online conversation that gluten-free and gluten intolerance earns, 28 July 2013-2 August 2014
Figure 40: Proportion of total online conversation that coeliac disease earns, 28 July 2013-2 August 2014
Topics of discussion
Figure 41: Topics of discussion around selected bread and baked goods brands, 28 July 2013-2 August 2014
40-year anniversary of advert spikes conversation
Topics around bread brands differ from overall bread conversation
Figure 42: Topics of discussion around generic bread mentions, 28 July 2013-2 August 2014
While gluten conversation grows, it still represents a niche part of the market
Where discussion is occurring
Figure 43: Where conversation occurs, by brand, 28 July 2014-2 August 2014
Analysis by brand
Hovis
Figure 44: Topic cloud of mentions around Hovis, 28 July 2013-2 August 2014
Warburtons
Figure 45: Topic cloud of mentions around Warburtons, 28 July 2013-2 August 2014
Kingsmill
Figure 46: Topic cloud of mentions around Kingsmill, 28 July 2013-2 August 2014
Genius
Figure 47: Topic cloud of mentions around Genius, 28 July 2013-2 August 2014
New York Bakery Co
Figure 48: Topic cloud of mentions around New York Bakery Co, 28 July 2013-2 August 2014

The Consumer – Purchase and Usage of Bread and Baked Goods
Key points
Bread is bought by more than nine in 10 consumers
Figure 49: Types of bread bought in the past three months, June 2013 and May 2014
White bread remains the most popular type of packaged sliced loaf
Figure 50: Types of packaged sliced bread loaves bought in the past three months, June 2013 and May 2014
Crumpets are the top choice in baked goods
Figure 51: Types of baked goods bought in the past three months, June 2013 and May 2014
Half of Brits eat packaged sliced bread daily
Figure 52: Frequency of eating bread and baked goods in the past three months, June 2013 and May 2014

The Consumer – Qualities Associated with Selected Breads and Baked Goods
Key points
Methodology
Figure 53: Qualities associated with selected types of bread and baked goods, correspondence analysis, May 2014
One in five users see factory-baked sliced white bread as artificial
Figure 54: Qualities associated with selected types of bread and baked goods, May 2014
More work needed to emphasise bread’s value-for-money credentials
In-store-baked bread is seen as fresh by just half of users

The Consumer – Attitudes Towards NPD in Bread and Baked Goods
Key points
One in three users would be interested in rolls with baked-in fillings
Figure 55: Consumer interest in NPD in bread and baked goods, May 2014
Scope to do more in the healthier baked goods arena
Individually wrapped bread rolls would interest a third of Brits
Flavoured wrapped sliced bread appeals to one in four
One in four would be interested in seasonal-flavoured breads

The Consumer – Further Attitudes Towards Bread and Baked Goods
Key points
One in three users see baked goods as a good accompaniment for hot drinks
Figure 56: Users’ attitudes towards bread and baked goods, May 2014
Baked goods a healthy alternative to a chocolate bar say one in four bread/baked good users
Added-fibre white bread deemed as good as wholemeal by a minority
Minority think gluten-free bread is only suitable for the gluten-intolerant

Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
Figure 57: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK bread and baked goods market, by value, 2014-19
Figure 58: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK bread and baked goods market, by volume, 2014-19

Appendix – Brand Advertising, Perceptions and Social Media
Key brand metrics
Figure 59: Brand usage, July 2014
Figure 60: Brand commitment, July 2014
Figure 61: Brand diversity, July 2014
Figure 62: Brand recommendation, July 2014
Brand experience
Figure 63: Brand satisfaction, July 2014
Brand attributes
Figure 64: Brand attitude, July 2014
Brand personality
Figure 65: Brand image – Macro image, July 2014
Figure 66: Brand image – Micro image, July 2014

Appendix – The Consumer – Purchase and Usage of Bread and Baked Goods
Purchase of bread
Figure 67: Purchase of bread in the last three months, May 2014
Figure 68: Most popular types of bread bought in the last three months, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 69: Next most popular types of bread bought in the last three months, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 70: Other types of bread bought in the last three months, by demographics, May 2014
Repertoire of bread bought
Figure 71: Repertoire of types of bread bought in the last three months, May 2014
Figure 72: Repertoire of types of bread bought in the last three months, by demographics, May 2014
Types of bread bought by repertoire of types of bread bought
Figure 73: Types of bread in the last three months, by repertoire of types of bread bought in the last three months, May 2014
Purchase of packaged sliced loaves
Figure 74: Purchase of packaged sliced loaves in the last three months, May 2014
Figure 75: Most popular types of packaged sliced loaves bought in the last three months, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 76: Next most popular types of packaged sliced loaves bought in the last three months, by demographics, May 2014
Purchase habits – Baked goods
Figure 77: Purchase of baked goods in the last three months, May 2014
Figure 78: Most popular types of baked goods bought in the last three months, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 79: Next most popular types of baked goods bought in the last three months, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 80: Other types of baked goods bought in the last three months, by demographics, May 2014
Repertoire of baked goods bought
Figure 81: Repertoire of types of baked goods bought in the last three months, May 2014
Figure 82: Repertoire of types of baked goods bought in the last three months, by demographics, May 2014
Baked goods bought by repertoire of types of baked goods bought
Figure 83: Baked goods bought in the last three months, by repertoire of types of baked goods bought in the last three months, May 2014
Frequency of usage of bread and baked goods
Figure 84: Frequency of eating bread and baked goods in the last three months, May 2014
Figure 85: Frequency of eating bread and baked goods in the last three months, May 2014 (continued)
Figure 86: Frequency of eating packaged sliced bread, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 87: Frequency of eating packaged sliced bread, by demographics, May 2014 (continued)
Figure 88: Frequency of eating other types of bread, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 89: Frequency of eating other types of bread, by demographics, May 2014 (continued)
Figure 90: Frequency of eating baked goods, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 91: Frequency of eating baked goods, by demographics, May 2014 (continued)

Appendix – The Consumer – Qualities Associated with Selected Breads and Baked Goods
Figure 92: Qualities associated with selected bread and baked goods products, May 2014
Figure 93: Qualities associated with factory-baked white sliced bread, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 94: Qualities associated with factory-baked white sliced bread, by demographics, May 2014 (continued)
Figure 95: Qualities associated with in-store-baked white sliced bread, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 96: Qualities associated with in-store-baked white sliced bread, by demographics, May 2014 (continued)
Figure 97: Qualities associated with bagels, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 98: Qualities associated with bagels, by demographics, May 2014 (continued)
Figure 99: Qualities associated with crumpets, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 100: Qualities associated with crumpets, by demographics, May 2014 (continued)
Figure 101: Qualities associated with wraps, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 102: Qualities associated with wraps, by demographics, May 2014 (continued)

Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes Towards NPD in Bread and Baked Goods
Figure 103: Consumer interest in NPD in bread and baked goods, May 2014
Figure 104: Most popular new concepts in bread and baked goods, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 105: Next most popular new concepts in bread and baked goods, by demographics, May 2014

Appendix – The Consumer – Further Attitudes Towards Bread and Baked Goods
Figure 106: Users’ attitudes towards bread and baked goods, May 2014
Figure 107: Most popular users’ attitudes towards bread and baked goods, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 108: Next most popular users’ attitudes towards bread and baked goods, by demographics, May 2014

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