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Beer - US - January 2016

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Jan 2016

Category :

Beer

No. of Pages : N/A

The US beer category is currently experiencing a major overhaul. While little movement is evident in terms of the overall performance of the category, there are significant shifts happening within. Dollar sales of beer are expected to grow a moderate 4% in 2015, amounting to overall gains of 21% since 2010. However, volume sales declined during this time, pointing at a shift toward premiumization and the rise of craft beer.

The super premium/premium, imported, and craft segments have shown growth during the period, with higher price points contributing to dollar sales increases. The total number of US breweries reached a record level in 2015, pointing to growth. Mergers and acquisitions abound and AB InBev

Table of Content

Overview

What you need to know
Definition

Executive Summary

The issues
Volume sales of beer declined 2% from 2010-15
Figure 1: US dollar and volume sales of beer, at current prices, 2010-15
Light beer maintains largest share, but slipping
Figure 2: Share of US volume sales of beer, by segment, 2010 and 2015 (est)
Leading domestic brands stall
Figure 3: Share change of MULO sales of domestic beer/ale, by leading brands, 52 weeks ending Oct. 4, 2015
The opportunities
Flavored beer launches grow
Figure 4: Beer launches, by flavor, 2010 and 2015
Imports see strong activity
Figure 5: Types of beer consumed, October 2015
Craft continues to thrive
Figure 6: Innovation of interest, October 2015
What it means

The Market – What You Need to Know

Dollar sales of beer grow 21% 2010-15, while volume sales decline
Beer leads alcohol consumption
US brewery count reaches all-time high in 2015
Light beer maintains the largest share, but this is slipping

Market Size and Forecast

Dollar sales of beer grow 21% 2010-15, while volume sales decline
Figure 7: US sales and forecast of beer, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 8: US sales and forecast of beer, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of beer, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 10: Total US volume sales and forecast of beer, 2010-20

Market Breakdown

The beer category is going through a major overhaul
Figure 11: Share of total US volume sales of beer, by segment, 2010 and 2015 (est)
Off-premise sales dwarf on-premise
Figure 12: US volume sales of beer, by channel 2010 and 2014
Figure 13: Consumption location, October 2015
On-premise beer may be seen as expensive
Figure 14: Locations for drinking beer, by household income, October 2015

Market Perspective

Beer leads alcohol consumption
Figure 15: Alcohol consumption – Any drink*, October 2015
Figure 16: Alcohol consumption – Most often drink, October 2015

Market Factors

Alcohol sales continue to rise; patterns favor a growth in on-premise consumption
Figure 17: Total expenditures on alcoholic beverages, 2000-13
US brewery count reaches all-time high in 2015
The majority of drinkers do so for relaxation
Figure 18: “Born in the Rockies: Place,” online video, June 2015
Figure 19: Motivations for drinking alcoholic beverages, October 2015

Key Players – What You Need to Know

AB InBev, SABMiller continue to dominate as major brands stagnate
Imports see strong activity
Cider brands show strong growth
Flavored beer launches grow

Manufacturer Sales of Beer

AB InBev and SABMiller continue to dominate
Manufacturer sales of beer
Figure 20: MULO sales of beer and cider, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015

What’s Working?

Imports see positive growth
Figure 21: MULO sales of imported beer/ale, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Craft still growing
Cider sales grow fivefold 2010-15
Figure 22: US volume sales of hard cider (2.25-gallons cases), 2010-20
Figure 23: MULO sales of cider, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Flavored beer launches grow
Figure 24: Beer launches, by flavor, 2010 and 2015
Limited edition launches grow from 2010-15
Figure 25: Beer launches, by leading claims, 2010-15*

What’s Struggling?

Leading domestic brands stall at MULO
Struggling leaders make a play for heritage positioning
Figure 26: “Coors Stubby Bottle – Taste,” online video, February 2015
Figure 27: MULO sales of domestic beer/ale, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Why is light beer struggling if people are concerned about calories?

What’s Next?

Beer blurring can grow appeal among drinkers of other alcoholic beverages
Being clear about nutritional information
Craft adoption diversifies big brand offerings, falls in closer line with consumer interest
Smaller formats may suggest quality, appeal to Millennials
Creating and catering to a savvy consumer
Figure 28: “The Battle (30 seconds),” online video, November 2015

The Consumer – What You Need to Know

Men, Millennials, and Hispanics remain key beer targets
Light beer leads consumption, but motivations vary
A higher percentage of consumers drink imported beer than domestic
28% of consumers are drinking more beer than a year ago
Beer leads for drinkability and affordability
Fresh and local finds appeal

Motivations for Drinking Alcoholic Beverages

Beer drinkers like the taste of alcohol and look for fun/refreshment
Figure 29: Motivations for drinking alcoholic beverages, by alcohol type 1 of 2, October 2015
Figure 30: Key drivers of beer (eg alcohol and non-alcohol) consumption, October 2015
Cider drinkers are interested in boosting mood, reward, variety, socializing
Figure 31: “The Simple Life | Stella Artois | Cidre,” online video, April 2015
Figure 32: Key drivers of hard cider consumption, October 2015
Boomers look to relax
Figure 33: Motivations for drinking alcoholic beverages, by generation, October 2015
Women are more likely than men to drink for relaxation/indulgence
Figure 34: Motivations for drinking alcoholic beverages, by gender, October 2015
Less than half of Hispanics drink for the taste of alcohol
Figure 35: Motivations for drinking alcoholic beverages, by Hispanic origin, October 2015
Food pairing appeals to higher earners
Figure 36: Motivations for drinking alcoholic beverages, by household income, October 2015

Beer Consumption

Men are twice as likely as women to drink beer
Figure 37: Beer consumption*, by gender, October 2015
The gender gap narrows slightly among younger consumers
Figure 38: Beer consumption, by gender and age, October 2015
Millennials and Gen Xers lead consumption
Figure 39: Beer consumption, by generation, October 2015
Higher earners are more likely to drink beer, but not as their primary drink
Figure 40: Beer consumption, by household income, October 2015
Hispanics are more likely than non-Hispanics to drink beer
Figure 41: Beer consumption, by Hispanic origin, October 2015

Types of Beer Consumed

A larger percentage of consumers drink imported beer than domestic
Figure 42: Types of beer consumed, October 2015
Flavored varieties find greater appeal among women
Figure 43: Types of beer consumed, by gender, October 2015
Age plays a stronger role than gender in interest in flavored beer
Figure 44: Types of beer consumed, by gender and age, October 2015
Millennials open to variety
Figure 45: Types of beer consumed, by generation, October 2015
Light beer appeals to older women
Figure 46: Types of beer consumed, by gender and age, October 2015
Half of Hispanics drink imported beer
Figure 47: Types of beer consumed, by Hispanic origin, October 2015
Hispanic Millennials are particularly drawn to imports
Figure 48: Types of beer consumed, by Hispanic origin and Millennials, October 2015
Light beer appeals to those who drink for fun
Figure 49: Types of beer consumed, by motivations for drinking, October 2015
Flavored and craft beer most likely consumed away from home
Figure 50: Types of beer consumed, by consumption location, October 2015

Change in Beer Consumption

28% of consumers are drinking more beer than a year ago
Figure 51: Change in beer consumption – Amount, October 2015
More than half of young men are drinking more beer in the past year
Figure 52: Change in beer consumption – Amount, by gender and age, October 2015
Hispanics are increasing their beer consumption
Figure 53: Change in beer consumption – Amount, by Hispanic origin, October 2015
Hard sodas may be helping category gain users
Figure 54: Change in beer consumption – Amount, by type of alcohol consumed, October 2015
A quarter of beer drinkers are drinking different kinds of beer than before
Figure 55: Change in beer consumption – Type, October 2015
Figure 56: Change in beer consumption – Drinking different kinds of beer, by gender, October 2015
Craft and flavored varieties contribute to increased consumption
Figure 57: Reasons for drinking more beer, October 2015
Flavor innovation appears as a stronger driver than craft among Millennials
Figure 58: Reasons for drinking more beer – Males 22-34, October 2015
Half of consumers are drinking less beer for health; half are turning to other alcohol types
Figure 59: Reasons for drinking less beer, October 2015

Opinions toward Alcoholic Beverages

Beer leads for affordability and drinkability, but lags for sophistication and quality
Figure 60: Correspondence Analysis – Perceptions of alcoholic drink types, October 2015
Figure 61: Perceptions of types of alcoholic drinks, October 2015
Cider struggles with health
Beer is less likely to appeal for taste/sophistication among women
Figure 62: Opinions toward alcoholic drink types – Beer, by gender, October 2015
Figure 63: Opinions toward alcoholic drink types – Women, by alcoholic drink type, October 2015
Millennials are most likely to associate beer with quality/sophistication
Figure 64: Opinions toward alcoholic drink types, by generation, October 2015
Beer can be an attractive point of entry for newer drinkers
Figure 65: Opinions toward alcoholic drink types – Millennials, by alcoholic drink type, October 2015
Encouraging drinking with others will be important among Hispanics
Figure 66: Opinions toward alcoholic drink types, by Hispanic origin, October 2015
Figure 67: Opinions toward alcoholic drink types – Hispanics, by alcoholic drink type, October 2015

Innovation of Interest

Fresh and local finds appeal
Figure 68: Innovation of interest, October 2015
Beer drinkers don’t appear willing to pay more for innovation
Figure 69: Innovation of interest – Beer drinkers, by willingness to pay more, October 2015
Flavor innovation appeals to beer nondrinkers
Figure 70: Innovation of interest, by beer consumption, October 2015
Innovation appeals more directly to men, but can be a clue to attracting women
Figure 71: Innovation of interest, by gender, October 2015
Men are most willing to pay more for limited editions and higher abv
Figure 72: Innovation of interest – Men, by willingness to pay more, October 2015
Millennials are highly receptive to innovation
Figure 73: Innovation of interest, by generation, October 2015
and show a greater willingness to pay more for it
Figure 74: Innovation of interest – Millennials, by willingness to pay more, October 2015
Innovation also appeals to Hispanics
Figure 75: Innovation of interest, by Hispanic origin, October 2015

Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Key driver analysis methodology
Correspondence analysis methodology
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations

Appendix – The Market

Figure 76: US volume sales of light beer, 2010-20
Figure 77: US volume sales of super-premium and premium beer, 2010-20
Figure 78: US volume sales of imported beer, 2010-20
Figure 79: US volume sales of craft beer, 2010-20
Figure 80: US volume sales of popular beer, 2010-20
Figure 81: US volume sales of ice beer, 2010-20
Figure 82: US volume sales of malt liquor, 2010-20
Figure 83: US volume sales of hard cider, 2010-20
Figure 84: Share of alcoholic beverage launches, by alcoholic beverage type, 2010-15*
Figure 85: US volume sales of beer, by channel, 2010-14

Appendix – Key Players

Figure 86: Beer launches, by flavor, 2010-15*
Figure 87: Beer launches, by leading claims, 2010-15*

Appendix – The Consumer

Interpretation of results
Figure 88: Key drivers of beer (eg alcohol and non-alcohol) consumption, October 2015
Figure 89: Key drivers of hard cider consumption, October 2015

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