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Beer - UK - December 2016

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Dec 2016

Category :

Beer

No. of Pages : N/A

With the concept of pairing beer with food having gained traction among UK consumers, “dine in” meal deals look to be a huge missed opportunity for beer. These would provide an ideal platform to give world beers - which are already growing in popularity - even more visibility through partnering them with the cuisine from their respective countries of origin.

Table of Contents

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: Forecast of UK value sales of beer, 2011-21
Segmentation
The future
New alcohol guidelines draw more attention to health risks
Ageing population and slowdown in growth of 25-34s pose a challenge
Companies and brands
A number of top lager brands enjoy double-digit growth
Hobgoblin and Sharp’s enjoy rapid growth
Craft NPD from major players
Tesco Express, Aldi and the Co-op expand their craft beer offering
Adspend on beer slumps by a fifth
The consumer
Overall usage of beer stabilises, with areas of growth
Figure 2: Usage of types of beer, October 2015 and September 2016
Over two fifths of beer drinkers do so more than once a week
Figure 3: Frequency of drinking beer, September 2016
Brand has the biggest sway over beer choice
Figure 4: Order in which factors are considered when choosing which beer to buy, September 2016
Locally-brewed beer attracts most interest
Fruit-based lager NPD can open up the category to more women
Figure 5: Interest in innovation in beer, September 2016
More evening meal deals should include beers
Figure 6: Beer drinking behaviours, September 2016
Pros and cons to smaller formats
Providing details on hops can boost quality perceptions
Figure 7: Attitudes towards beer, September 2016
What we think

ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Despite efforts, food pairing remains a missed opportunity for beer
The facts
The implications
Nutritional labelling presents a chance to stand out among young beer drinkers
The facts
The implications
It’s time to shine for the smaller volume beer formats
The facts
The implications

THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Volume sales of beer remain broadly flat
Lager dominants, but ale steals share
Off-trade overtakes on-trade in volume sales of beer
Fourth consecutive year of volume growth in the off-trade
Share captured by independents and online grows
Stability in the beer market expected to endure
The shift to off-trade purchasing set to curb the impact of inflation
New alcohol guidelines draw more attention to health risks
Ageing population and slowdown in growth of 25-34s pose a challenge

MARKET SIZE AND SEGMENTATION
Volume sales of beer remain more or less flat
Figure 8: Total value and volume sales of beer, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
Lager’s dominance in the beer market is being eroded
Figure 9: Total value and volume sales of lager, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
Volume sales of ale/bitter up 5% in two years
Figure 10: Total value and volume sales of ale/bitter, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
Stout returns to growth
Figure 11: Total value and volume sales of stout/porter, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
The future
Only a negligible fall in volume sales predicted
The shift to off-trade purchasing set to curb the impact of inflation
Figure 12: Forecast of UK value sales of beer, 2011-21
Figure 13: Forecast of UK volume sales of beer, 2011-21
The impact of the EU Referendum
Figure 14: Alternative scenarios for the beer market, 2016-21
The calm before the storm?
Consumers’ remain optimistic about their finances
The market was in a different place in 2008-09

CHANNELS TO MARKET
Off-trade overtakes on-trade in volume sales of beer
Ale/bitter is going from strength to strength
Figure 15: Value and volume sales of beer, by channel, 2011-16
Fourth consecutive year of volume growth in the off-trade
Share captured by independents and online grows
Big brands make a play for online delivery

MARKET DRIVERS
New alcohol guidelines draw more attention to health risks
New opportunities for premium drinks, lower/no-alcohol drinks and smaller formats
The small tax relief for alcohol producers is set to be outweighed by other upward pressures on cost
Figure 16: UK excise duty rates for selected alcoholic drinks, 2004-16
Brexit could hike up prices of imported alcohol
Opportunities for domestic beer brands and entrepreneurial brewers
The on-trade set to be affected by more cautious spending habits
The new Pubs Code comes into force
Ageing population and slowdown in growth of 25-34s pose a challenge
Figure 17: Change in age structure of the UK population, 2011-16 and 2016-21

COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
A number of top lager brands enjoy double-digit growth
Tesco delisting hits sales of Carlsberg
Hobgoblin and Sharp’s enjoy rapid growth
Guinness returns to growth
Craft NPD from major players
Tesco Express, Aldi and the Co-op expand their craft beer offering
AB InBev to provide full nutritional information for its beers
Adspend on beer slumps by a fifth

MARKET SHARE
The mega merger of AB InBev and SABMiller goes ahead
A number of top lager brands enjoy double-digit growth
Strong performances from world lagers
Tesco delisting hits sales of Carlsberg
Figure 18: Retail sales of the leading lager brands in the UK, by value and volume, 2014/15-2015/16
Figure 19: Retail sales of the leading lager manufacturers in the UK, by value and volume, 2014/15-2015/16
Hobgoblin and Sharp’s enjoy rapid growth
Sales of BrewDog triple
Figure 20: Retail sales of the leading ale brands in the UK, by value and volume, 2014/15-2015/16
Figure 21: Retail sales of the leading ale manufacturers in the UK, by value and volume, 2014/15-2015/16
Guinness returns to growth
Figure 22: Retail sales of the leading stout/porter brands in the UK, by value and volume, 2014/15-2015/16

LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Craft NPD from major players
First foray into small-batch beers for Meantime
Shed Head: the new craft beer from Carlsberg
Tesco Express, Aldi and the Co-op expand their craft beer offering
More experimental NPD activity from BrewDog
Buoyant NPD in flavoured beer/lager
NPD in fruit and botanical flavours well-placed to appeal to 25-34s
Lemon and lime from Kopparberg, botanicals from Lowlander
The rise of the 330ml can
Small cans move from craft to mainstream
Recent launches range from Fullers to Wychwood
AB InBev to provide full nutritional information for its beers…
…and forays into alcohol-free beer
Gluten-free innovation from Carlsberg and Peroni
A number of large beer brands undertook packaging revamps in 2016
San Miguel and Stella hope to create a premium feel
Carlsberg looks to emphasise heritage, Marston’s hopes to modernise

ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Adspend on beer slumps by a fifth
Figure 23: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on beer, 2012-16
Figure 24: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on beer, by category, 2012-16
AB Inbev becomes adspend leader in 2015
Stella marks its 600th anniversary with global campaign
Figure 25: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on beer, by top 10 highest-spending advertisers in 2015, 2012-16
Figure 26: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on beer, by top 15 highest-spending brands, 2012-16
Guinness makes big strides in social media advertising
Support for responsible drinking of beer boosted
Heineken continues to deliver responsible drinking messages
…with a major push behind this same theme from Budweiser
AB InBev ran a local campaign in Preston
Carlsberg jumps up the ranks in adspend
Pubs are at the core of Carlsberg’s advertising for Euro 2016
Estrella Damm’s Vale: an example of the blurring of films and adverts
Typically atypical marketing from BrewDog
Other notable digital and social campaigns
Fuller’s unites OOH and social media in its #FindFlavour campaign
Miller brands introduces a Pint Finder App for Kozel
Carlsberg partners with MatchPint for UEFA Euro 2016
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage

BRAND RESEARCH
Brand map
Figure 27: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, September 2016
Key brand metrics
Figure 28: Key metrics for selected brands, September 2016
Brand attitudes: Guinness is seen to have strong quality credentials
Figure 29: Attitudes, by brand, September 2016
Brand personality: Desperados stands out on fun and vibrancy
Figure 30: Brand personality – Macro image, September 2016
Peroni has the most stylish and sophisticated image
Figure 31: Brand personality – Micro image, September 2016
Brand analysis
Peroni is at the fore in terms of engagement
Figure 32: User profile of Peroni, September 2016
Desperados stands out as fun and vibrant
Figure 33: User profile of Desperados, September 2016
Old Speckled Hen scores well on authenticity
Figure 34: User profile of Old Speckled Hen, September 2016
Stella Artois is seen as innovative
Figure 35: User profile of Stella Artois, September 2016
Guinness has an enviable all-round reputation
Figure 36: User profile of Guinness, September 2016
Budweiser garners a fun image among young men
Figure 37: User profile of Budweiser, September 2016
Foster’s win on value for money
Figure 38: User profile of Foster’s, September 2016
John Smith’s is marred with a tired and boring image
Figure 39: User profile of John Smith’s, September 2016

THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Overall usage of beer stabilises, with areas of growth
Over two fifths of beer drinkers do so more than once a week
Brand has the biggest sway over beer choice
Promotions remain a strong driver
Locally-brewed beer attracts most interest
Fruit-based lager NPD can open up the category to more women
More evening meal deals should include beers
Age divide in preference for nutritional labelling
Pros and cons to smaller formats
Providing details on hops can boost quality perceptions

USAGE OF BEER
Overall usage of beer stabilises, with areas of growth
Figure 40: Usage of beer, by type, October 2015 and September 2016
A big gap in usage between the sexes
Usage peaks among 25-34s
Figure 41: Usage of types of beer, by location, September 2016
Over two fifths of beer drinkers do so more than once a week
Figure 42: Frequency of drinking beer, September 2016

FACTORS CONSIDERED WHEN BUYING BEER
Brand has the biggest sway over beer choice
Figure 43: Order in which factors are considered when choosing which beer to buy, September 2016
Promotions remain a strong driver
Under-35s most likely to look at price per can/bottle and litre and seek chilled beer
Under-25s place most importance on ABV

INTEREST IN INNOVATION IN BEER
Locally-brewed beer attracts most interest
Rise of small breweries offers scope for retailers and on-trade to leverage this interest
Figure 44: Interest in innovation in beer, September 2016
Interest in barrel-aged beer peaks among over-55s
Beer can draw on positivity around barrel-aged spirits and natural cues
Linking with bourbon can boost appeal among the young
Flavour-based innovation and blends chime most among 25-34s
Fruit-based lager NPD can open up the category to more women
Interest in sour beer remains niche despite industry noise around this concept
Figure 45: Interest in flavour- and blend-based innovation in beer, by age, September 2016

BEER DRINKING BEHAVIOURS
More evening meal deals should include beers
Most 25-34s are interested in more food pairing suggestions
Figure 46: Beer drinking behaviours, September 2016
Age divide in preference for nutritional labelling
Half of 18-24s would choose a beer with nutrition details
Figure 47: Consumers who would choose a beer with nutrition labelling over one without, by age, September 2016
Responsible drinking behaviour is widespread
Under-35s most open to low-alcohol beer

ATTITUDES TOWARDS BEER
Pros and cons of smaller formats
Craft brands have helped to make the 330ml can trendy
Figure 48: Attitudes towards beer, September 2016
Providing details on hops can boost quality perceptions…
…with unique yeasts also offering opportunities

APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
Forecast Methodology

APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 49: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total beer market, by value, 2016-21
Figure 50: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total beer market, by volume, 2016-21
Figure 51: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total lager market, by value, 2016-21
Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total lager market, by volume, 2016-21
Figure 53: Forecast of UK value sales of lager, 2011-21
Figure 54: Forecast of UK volume sales of lager, 2011-21
Figure 55: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total ale/bitter market, by value, 2016-21
Figure 56: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total ale/bitter market, by volume, 2016-21
Figure 57: Forecast of UK value sales of ale/bitter, 2011-21
Figure 58: Forecast of UK volume sales of ale/bitter, 2011-21
Figure 59: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total stout/porter market, by value, 2016-21
Figure 60: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total stout/porter market, by volume, 2016-21
Figure 61: Forecast of UK value sales of stout/porter, 2011-21
Figure 62: Forecast of UK volume sales of stout/porter, 2011-21

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