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Bakery Products - Canada - June 2015

Published By :

Mintel

Published Date : Jun 2015

Category :

Bakery Products

No. of Pages : N/A

Consumers are very clear about what matters to them when it comes to selecting bakery products and that is freshness. While this is not startling, what is of note is how much other concerns are less important. Gluten-free has garnered a great deal of attention, but when asked consumers rate it as being a low priority behind all other considerations suggesting manufacturers should look to other attributes when deciding on innovation and crafting strategic messaging 
Table of Content

Introduction

Definition
Methodology
Abbreviations

Executive Summary

The market
Figure 1: Forecast of Canada retail volume sales of bakery products, 2010-20
Figure 2: Forecast of Canada retail value sales of bakery products, 2010-20
Market factors
Canada’s population is aging and will continue to do so in the coming years
Figure 3: Population aged 65 years and over in Canada, historical and projected (% of total), 1971-2061
Figure 4: Projected trends in the age structure of the Canadian population, 2014-19
Over half of Canadians are overweight or obese
Figure 5: Body mass index, self-reported rate of being overweight or obese among Canadian adults, by gender, 2009-13
The consumer
Nearly all Canadians eat baked goods
Figure 6: Bakery products eaten, March 2015
Consumers are most likely to eat bread as part of a sandwich
Figure 7: When bakery products are eaten, March 2015
Freshness is most important to consumers
Figure 8: Purchase behaviour, March 2015
Bread is most important for making a good sandwich
Figure 9: Baked goods purchase attitudes, March 2015
What we think

Issues and Insights

Freshness matters most to consumers
The facts
The implications
Gluten-free is less important to consumers versus other factors
The facts
The implications
Quebec consumers have more positive associations with bakery products
The facts
The implications
Gender has an impact on bakery product consumption
The facts
The implications

Market Drivers

Key points
Demographic overview
Canadian population expected to grow
Figure 10: Share of population of Canada, by territory/province, 2014
Canada’s population is aging and will continue to do so in the coming years
Figure 11: Population aged 65 years and over in Canada, historical and projected (% of total), 1971-2061
Figure 12: Projected trends in the age structure of the Canadian population, 2014-19
Over half of Canadians are overweight or obese
Figure 13: Body mass index, self-reported rate of being overweight or obese among Canadian adults, by gender, 2009-13
Economic overview
Overall negative impact of lower oil prices on the Canadian economy
Figure 14: Canada’s GDP, by quarter, Q4 2008-Q4 2014
Figure 15: Household disposable incomes and savings in Canada, by quarter, Q4 2008-Q4 2014
Figure 16: Canada’s unemployment rate, by gender, 2008-15

Trend Application

Trend: The Real Thing
Trend: Minimize Me
Trend: Sense of the Intense

Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths
Weaknesses

Who’s Innovating?

Key points
Overall launch increase supported by new packaging
Figure 17: Percentage of bakery launches in Canada, by launch type, 2010-14
Private label outpaces branded products in launches
Figure 18: Percentage of bakery product launches in Canada, by brand type, 2010-14
Wholegrain is the top claim found on bread packaging
Figure 19: Percentage of bread & bread product launches in Canada, by claim, 2010-14
Honey, I shrunk the bread!
Versatile options tie bread closer to the centre of the plate

Market Size and Forecast

Key points
Bakery products volume declines to moderate
Figure 20: Canada retail value and volume sales of bakery products, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
Figure 21: Forecast of Canada retail volume sales of bakery products, 2010-20
Figure 22: Forecast of Canada retail value sales of bakery products, 2010-20
Bread and bread product volume declines to flatten, but value sales forecasted to soften
Figure 23: Canada retail value and volume sales of bread and bread products, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
Figure 24: Forecast of Canada retail volume sales of bread and bread products, 2010-20
Figure 25: Forecast of Canada retail value sales of bread and bread products, 2010-20
Sweet bakery volume remains flat, though value sales show increase
Figure 26: Canada retail value and volume sales of sweet bakery, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
Figure 27: Forecast of Canada retail volume sales of sweet bakery, 2010-20
Figure 28: Forecast of Canada retail value sales of sweet bakery, 2010-20
Forecast methodology

Companies and Products

Grupo Bimbo (Canada Bread Co.)
Overview and product range
Recent activity and innovation
Weston Foods
Overview and product range
Recent activity and innovation
Aryzta
Overview and product range
Recent activity and innovation

The Consumer – Bakery Products Eaten

Key points
Nearly all Canadians eat baked goods
Figure 29: Bakery products eaten, March 2015
Figure 30: Consumption frequency of bakery products, March 2015
Men are more likely to eat bakery products daily
Figure 31: Bakery products eaten in the past three months, by gender, March 2015
Consumers in Quebec are more likely to eat multiple types of bakery products
Figure 32: Bakery products eaten in the past three months in Quebec and Canada, March 2015
Household size and income impacts frequency of bread consumption

The Consumer – When Bakery Products are Eaten

Key points
Consumers are most likely to eat bread as part of a sandwich
Figure 33: When bakery products are eaten, March 2015
Age influences when bread is eaten
Figure 34: When bakery products are eaten, by age group, March 2015
Household dynamics influence when bakery products are eaten
Underdeveloped opportunities for bakery products

The Consumer – Purchase Behaviour

Key points
Freshness is most important to consumers
Figure 35: Purchase behaviour, March 2015
Women are more likely to be open to new and different ingredients
Figure 36: Purchase behaviour, by gender, March 2015
Regional differences are select and subtle, but they exist
Figure 37: Purchase behaviour – Quebec versus Canada overall, March 2015
Accommodation is more important within larger households

The Consumer – Choice Factors

Key points
Freshness and taste are the top purchase considerations
Figure 38: Importance of different factors when choosing bakery products (any rank), March 2015
Figure 39: Leading motivating factors when choosing bakery products (#1 ranked), March 2015
Gluten-free has little impact in consumers’ decisions
Half of consumers look for wholegrain/high-in-fibre health claims
Half of consumers are influenced by baked products’ end use

The Consumer – Attitudes towards Baking Products

Key points
Bread is most important for making a good sandwich
Figure 40: Baked goods purchase attitudes, March 2015
Consumers have an appetite for innovation
Fortification can help alleviate consumers’ health concerns around bread
Figure 41: Baked goods purchase attitudes – Health considerations, by gender and age, March 2015
Consumers are both willing to pay more and are looking to spend less

The Consumer – Bakery Products and Chinese Canadians

Key points
More Chinese Canadians eat sliced bread, but they do so less often
Figure 42: Bakery products eaten – Chinese Canadians vs overall population, March 2015
Chinese Canadians are less likely to eat bakery products during ‘traditional’ meal occasions
Figure 43: When bakery products are eaten – Chinese Canadians vs overall population, March 2015
Health considerations more important among Chinese Canadians
Figure 44: Importance of different factors when choosing bakery products (any rank) – Chinese Canadians versus overall population, March 2015
Chinese Canadians are more sales conscious
Figure 45: Baked goods purchase attitudes – Chinese Canadians versus overall population, March 2015

The Consumer – Target Groups

Key points
Four target groups
Figure 46: Target groups for bakery products, March 2015
Price Conscious (28%)
Enthusiasts (28%)
Functionally Motivated (22%)
Disengaged (22%)

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