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Australia - Telecoms Market Analysis - Top Trends Moving into 2015

BuddeComm
Published Date » 2014-07-02
No. Of Pages » 218
  Exploring new business and investment opportunities  
     
  Overall telecoms market  
   
 The Australian telecoms market currently operates in a two-tiered fashion. By far the greatest attention of politicians and the media is focused on the national broadband market. Despite election promises, progress has been – as predicted by BuddeComm – slow. The specific analyses of the NBN are covered in a separate report. 
   
 The real market action in 2014 is again taking place in the mobile broadband market. Telstra has further strengthened its position as the clear leader. However, Optus and Vodafone – whose networks are now also ready for competition – have indicated that they will challenge Telstra and a price war is set to be unleashed in the mobile...
Table of Content

1. Analyses Telecoms Market – mid 2014
1.1 Where are the economic policies and strategies
1.1.1 The world is passing Australia by
1.1.2 Government misses out on developing a smart economy
1.1.3 Lack of vision – politicians absorbed by costs of ageing economic models
1.1.4 Where is the economic plan for the post-manufacturing era?
1.2 Competition in the telecoms industry is dwindling
1.3 Digital Productivity Key to Transformation of Australian Economy
1.3.1 Smart Societies based on Artificial Intelligence
1.3.2 Sector and industry transformation
1.3.3 Has the internet reached the ‘too big to fail’ stage?
1.3.4 E-banking and M-banking
1.3.5 Advertising and Marketing in the Digital Age
1.3.6 Business Market – Trends and Statistics
1.3.7 Online Retailing
1.3.8 E-Health
1.3.9 E-Education
1.3.10 E-Government
1.4 White Paper calls for National Telehealth Strategy
1.5 E-education developments need to move faster
1.6 Cloud services now mainstream
1.7 Tablets and other smart devices clear winners in a fragmenting entertainment market
1.8 The unstoppable move towards smart cities
1.8.1 Customer-driven smart cities
1.8.2 Economy-driven smart cities
1.8.3 Society-driven smart cities
1.8.4 Greenfields Opportunities
1.8.5 Brownfields Challenges
1.9 Smart Energy – Australian is right up with the international leaders

2. International Analyses Relevant to Australia
2.1 The changing roles of telecom operators and content providers
2.2 Telcos will need to lift their game on infrastructure
2.3 The demand and supply imbalance in telecoms
2.4 Market-led demand for FttH is picking up
2.5 Hanze, Silk Route and Gigabit Cities
2.6 Let American telcos and cablecos merge – but declare infrastructure a utility
2.7 Telecoms Investments
2.7.1 Telecoms still not seen as good infrastructure investment
2.7.2 Positive outlook for investments in backbones
2.8 UK – Fast broadband services influencing home-buying
2.9 Companies and governments get a bad rap
2.10 The battle to capture skilled expertise for deep learning efforts
2.11 Mobile Communications
2.11.1 Mobiles moving into fixed networks
2.11.2 A keen interest in VoLTE developing around the world
2.11.3 Mobile sector driving telecoms growth and OTT is the new normal
2.12 Mobile broadband – the key growth area for global telecoms industry
2.13 WiFi networks are taking off around the globe
2.14 Online advertising – four key sectors
2.15 Digital developments continue to direct the future of entertainment
2.16 Disruption – so what is next?
2.17 The disruptive e-healthcare market has arrived!
2.18 Education system will hit economic crisis point
2.18.1 Economic costs will force the system to change
2.18.2 Governments will be forced to stop costs spiralling out of control
2.19 The fickle nature of social networks – Twitters turn to feel the heat
2.20 Whatsapp and Permission Based Marketing
2.21 Improving customer analytics with subscriber data management
2.22 Scandals, Muck, Fear and Sensation vs. Quality News
2.22.1 Quality news moves to the internet
2.22.2 Further decline is envisaged
2.23 Shared and integrated ICT essential to achieve the sustainable development goals
2.23.1 Grassroots proof of success
2.23.2 Lack of strategic leadership
2.23.3 Death by pilots
2.23.4 How to move forward

3. Broadband Market in 2014
3.1 The National Broadband Network’s continuing evolution
3.2 Residential and business broadband markets: growing adoption of faster services
3.3 DSL and HFC markets: stable growth as copper plant survives within the NBN
3.4 Mobile broadband growth supported by Australia’s globally impressive LTE infrastructure
3.5 Statistical overview of the Australian Broadband and Digital Industry
3.6 Satellite and wireless broadband uptake greater than expected
3.7 Creative thinking required to address broadband issues
3.8 Video competition is heating up in Australia
3.9 Broadband and household income
3.9.1 The impact of broadband on income
3.9.2 Why broadband speed increases income
3.10 Aligning broadband and healthcare

4. National Broadband Network - Developments and Analyses 2014
4.1 NBN-related jobs increase by 248% since review
4.2 Market-led demand for FttH is picking up
4.3 TPG highlights the fragile NBN environment
4.3.1 Market-led vs. Government intervention
4.3.2 You cannot unravel the NBN
4.3.3 The fragility of the wholesale-only model
4.3.4 NBN is a finely balanced exercise
4.3.5 TPG exposes weaknesses in NBN retail models
4.4 NBN assessment April 2014
4.4.1 Introduction
4.4.2 Reviewing the last few weeks
4.4.3 From reviews to leadership
4.4.4 Tension with the review commissions
4.4.5 The end goal will remain FttH
4.4.6 The NBN future looks bright
4.5 Is the government opening a NBN Pandora’s box?
4.5.1 Pandora’s Box
4.6 Aligning broadband and healthcare
4.7 Government reneges on election promises
4.8 Where is the economic plan for the post-manufacturing era?
4.9 No NBN cherry-picking – another step in the right direction
4.10 NBN debate continues in a policy vacuum
4.11 Regional councils concerns over the NBN changes
4.12 Privatisation of NBN is not popular
4.13 The NBN will always remain in Beta.
4.14 Will the NBN be unravelled?
4.14.1 The delicate nature of a wholesale-only model
4.14.2 Structural separation allows for wholesale-only model
4.14.3 No demand for fibre-based services?
4.14.4 National digital productivity
4.15 Analysis of NBN 2.0
4.15.1 Two competing NBN offerings
4.15.2 The multi-technology NBN
4.15.3 Design and rollout problems
4.15.4 Contracts, negotiations and regulations
4.15.5 The execution
4.15.6 Current FttH plan requires simplification
4.15.7 So on to the next review in 2016?
4.15.8 Still missing – a national vision
4.16 NBN Co given the opportunity to save the current NBN
4.17 Telstra’s cashflow may suffer from NBN rollout delays
4.18 What PRISM, credit card hacking and Chromecast have to do with FttH
4.19 Retirement of NBN Co’s first CEO
4.20 The pros and cons of vectoring
4.21 Will LTE steal the broadband revolution?
4.22 Multi Dwelling Unit broadband
4.23 Is the NBN Co business model flawed?
4.24 NBN – telecoms or digital infrastructure – a SAU question
4.25 Pilbara – a lost NBN opportunity
4.26 NBN leadership or NBN procrastination
4.27 The Dutch Disease, broadband and the mining boom
4.28 Comparisons with broadband plans from AT&T and BT (separate report)
4.29 NBN could slash telecoms maintenance costs
4.30 Broadband demand-side management
4.31 The NBN and the opportunity for ‘virtual’ players
4.32 Will infrastructure constrain the digital entertainment market?
4.33 Will the half-built HFC disaster be repeated?
4.34 Four million households within reach of the NBN by 2015
4.35 Digital infrastructure essential to manage the transition to the e-world

5. Mobile Communications – The Market in 2014
5.1 Market and industry analyses
5.1.1 Strong mobile competition
5.1.2 Competition moving forwards
5.1.3 Only structural change can save the mobile industry
5.1.4 High demand for mobile broadband
5.1.5 Mobile broadband – killer app for FttP
5.1.6 Spectrum key to broadband utility
5.1.7 Consumers ditching fixed-line for mobile
5.2 Mobile network operators overview
5.2.1 Telstra
5.2.2 Optus
5.2.3 Vodafone
5.3 Overview of trends and developments
5.3.1 Mobile broadband
5.3.2 Mobile subscribers
5.3.3 Mobile voice
5.3.4 Network termination rates lowered may drive mobile competition
5.3.5 Smartphones

6. Mobile Broadband – Insights, Statistics and Forecasts
6.1 Market overview and analysis
6.1.1 Market overview
6.1.2 Uptake in 4G adds to mobile broadband users
6.1.3 Mobile data and messaging exceeds voice revenues
6.1.4 Globalgig hotspot local and international data roaming
6.1.5 Capital expenditure builds into the future
6.1.6 Overview of 4G frequency usage
6.1.7 Spectrum reallocations
6.1.8 Hardware drives applications
6.1.9 Mobile broadband to drive structural change
6.1.10 Mobile broadband slowly substitutes fixed services
6.1.11 The economic impact of mobile broadband
6.2 Mobile broadband market statistics
6.2.1 Mobile broadband subscribers
6.2.2 Mobile broadband revenues
6.2.3 Fixed wireless broadband market
6.3 Forecasts and other developments
6.3.1 Mobile advertising
6.3.2 M-payment services
6.3.3 M-banking
6.3.4 Mobile broadband boom the killer app for FttP
6.3.5 Fixed/mobile call market
6.3.6 Revenue forecasts

7. The Broadcasting Market in 2014
7.1 Disruptive content is heating up the competition
7.2 International competition needs infrastructure
7.3 Free-to-Air TV still going strong
7.4 SVoD content coming from the FTA broadcasters
7.5 Should the Pay TV model be retained – even though it is wrong?
7.6 Fast-forward, re-wind, catch-up all aim to deliver content
7.7 Customers moving to IPTV media delivery
7.8 Digital TV moved to 100% penetration
7.9 Restacking the digital channel spectrum
7.10 Budget cuts to the ABC and SBS
7.11 Digital radio
7.12 Revenue trends in the media sector

8. M2M and The Internet of Things
8.1 Statistical information
8.1.1 Market forecast network connected devices 2015
8.1.2 M2M statistics from Telstra
8.1.3 The first IoT statistics from Telstra
8.1.4 Forecast from Telsyte
8.1.5 IoT Moving mainstream
8.1.6 The compelling business of M2M
8.1.7 Competitive advantages of Mobile M2M
8.2 Market and Industry Analyses
8.2.1 2014: the year of M2M, but …
8.2.2 Who will dominate the IoT market?
8.2.3 Telcos and the science of big data
8.2.4 The Internet of Everything
8.3 Key trends and Developments
8.3.1 Deep packet inspection
8.3.2 Ubiquitous Complex Event Processing
8.3.3 Behavioural Attitudinal Geolocation
8.3.4 Advanced recommendations engines
8.3.5 Lifetime customer relationships
8.3.6 Electricity companies and the M2M
8.3.7 Data analytics solutions for Smart Grids
8.4 Change in services driven by Sensing and monitoring information
8.5 Smart Projects
8.5.1 RFID Materials management on massive scale
8.5.2 Vehicle tracking
8.5.3 UniSA satellite system
8.5.4 SenSA
8.5.5 Smart Water
8.5.6 M2M to monitor natural resources
8.5.7 Traffic lights and alarm system go M2M over the NBN
8.5.8 Tsunamis warning system
8.5.9 M2M to save miners lives
8.5.10 Optus
8.5.11 Sense-T

9. Impact of the Digital Economy and the Media Industry
9.1 The digital economy – what is at stake for you?
9.2 Advertising important to media industry
9.3 Collapse of the traditional media industry
9.4 Market insights
9.4.1 From calls to applications
9.4.2 Expect delays and roadblocks
9.4.3 Fragmentation, consolidation, mergers and acquisitions
9.4.4 Where are the new opportunities?
9.4.5 Think international
9.4.6 Media and Telco's adapting business to the new Digital Economy
9.4.7 Copyright and the Internet back in the Spotlight
9.5 Whatever happened to media convergence?
9.5.1 Convergence substitution
9.5.2 New business models for media content required
9.6 Media companies need to disaggregate and rebuild
9.6.1 Brand key in online media
9.7 The challenges for newspaper publishing
9.8 Brief case study: The book publishing industry
9.8.1 Digital e-readers/e-books
9.9 The anomaly of the mass media
9.9.1 Analysis of media trends

10. Internet Governance and Net Neutrality Insights
10.1 Complex societies depend on ICT infrastructure
10.2 The Internet and the economy – in statistics
10.2.1 Parochial politicians fail to address the complex global problems
10.3 Control of the internet
10.3.1 International discussion
10.3.2 Internet governanace back in the limelight
10.3.3 Net neutrality
10.3.4 The two sides of Net Neutrality – update 2014
10.3.5 Interests at play
10.4 E-security
10.4.1 Infrastructure issues
10.4.2 How safe is FttH?
10.5 Cybercrime
10.5.1 Child protection a priority
10.5.2 E-health security
10.5.3 E-commerce security
10.6 Security developments
10.6.1 Internet companies in China show interest
10.6.2 Security an issue for social media
10.6.3 E-security spending
10.7 Be prepared with robust national infrastructure
10.8 Conclusion - infrastructure essential for the digital economy

11. The Big Picture - Key Industry Statistics
11.1 Key global trends for telcoms industry
11.1.1 Telecoms ain’t telecoms anymore
11.2 Global mobile key statistics
11.2.1 Wireless/mobile broadband
11.3 Global Internet key statistics
11.3.1 Fixed broadband
11.3.2 Broadband access technologies
11.4 Global telecommunications expenditure and revenue
11.4.1 Global telecoms CAPEX
11.4.2 Global telecoms outsourcing
11.4.3 Infrastructure sharing to cut costs
11.4.4 Global ICT spending
11.4.5 Global telecoms revenue
11.5 Global telecoms traffic
11.5.1 Internet traffic
11.5.2 Mobile data traffic
11.6 Satellite services
11.6.1 Satellite industry revenue
11.6.2 Mobile Satellite Services (MSS)
11.6.3 Satellite broadband
11.6.4 Direct broadcasting services/satellite radio
11.7 Ranking of top carriers
11.7.1 Global top 16 major mobile parent carriers by subscribers
11.7.2 Global major 10 fixed-line parent carriers by subscribers
11.8 Conclusions
11.8.1 Trans-sector going wireless
11.8.2 Why does the telco industry need to change?

List of Tables

Table 1 – Mobile broadband monthly ARPU – 2007 - 2014
Table 2 – Estimated mobile broadband revenues and annual change – 2010 - 2014
Table 3 – Mobile market subscribers, penetration rate and annual change – 2010 - 2014
Table 4 – Total mobile services market revenue and annual change – 2010 - 2014
Table 5 – Wireless broadband subscribers by access type – 2009 - 2014
Table 6 – Mobile broadband subscribers by mobile network operator – 2007 - 2013
Table 7 – Estimated mobile broadband data downloaded in Petabytes – 2007 - 2013; 2015
Table 8 – Estimated mobile broadband revenues and annual change – 2007 - 2015
Table 9 – Mobile broadband monthly ARPU – 2007 - 2015
Table 10 – Fixed wireless broadband subscribers by major operator – 2008 - 2013
Table 11 – Forecast mobile broadband and voice revenues – 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 12 – Australian advertising spend in broadcasting sectors – 2010; 2014; 2016
Table 13 – Global advertising spending- all mediums – 2010 - 2015
Table 14 – Top ten countries by digital advertising spend per Internet user - 2013
Table 15 – Global online advertising spend – 2012 - 2014
Table 16 – Global advertising spending market share by major types – 2013; 2015
Table 17 – Most popular formats for receiving news in the USA – 2013
Table 18 – Growth of e-reader sales – 2009 - 2013
Table 19 – Global - Internet users and annual change – 2009 - 2014
Table 20 – Worldwide IT security spending – 2011; 2012; 2016
Table 21 – Worldwide security software spending – 2010 - 2015
Table 22 – Global - telecom statistics at a glance – 2013; 2014
Table 23 – Global - mobile subscriptions and annual change – 2009 - 2014
Table 24 – Regional - mobile subscribers – 2009 – 2013
Table 25 – Global – mobile broadband market share by technology – Q1 2013
Table 26 – Regional – mobile broadband connections – Q1 2013
Table 27 – Top ten OECD countries by wireless broadband subscriptions – 2011; mid 2012
Table 28 – Global - Internet users and annual change – 2009 - 2014
Table 29 – Regional – market share of broadband subscribers – Q2 2012; Q1 2013
Table 30 – Global - fixed broadband subscribers and annual change – 2005 - 2014
Table 31 – Top ten broadband countries by subscribers – Q2 2012; Q1 2013
Table 32 – Top ten broadband countries by penetration –2012
Table 33 – Global - broadband market share by access technology – Mid 2010; Mid 2012; Q1 2013
Table 34 – Global – broadband subscribers by access technology – 2013
Table 35 – Global - telecoms capital expenditure (CAPEX) – 2008 - 2014
Table 36 – Global - mobile capital expenditure (CAPEX) – 2010 - 2014
Table 37 – Global – ICT spending – 2012 - 2015
Table 38 – Global - telecoms expenditure as a percentage of GDP – 1990; 2006; 2009; 2012
Table 39 – Global - telecoms services revenue – 2008 - 2014
Table 40 – Global - monthly mobile data traffic – 2000; 2011 - 2013
Table 41 – Regional - mobile data traffic growth – CAGR 2012 - 2017
Table 42 – Global - satellite industry revenue – 2008 - 2013
Table 43 – Global - satellite services revenue – 2003 - 2013
Table 44 – Global - mobile satellite devices – 2008; 2010; 2018
Table 45 – Top 16 major parent mobile carriers worldwide by subscribers – 2013
Table 46 – Top 10 major fixed-line parent carriers worldwide by subscribers - 2013

List of Figures

Chart 1 – Overview of mobile broadband revenues and annual change – 2010 - 2014
Chart 2 – Mobile market subscribers, penetration rate and annual change – 2010 - 2014
Chart 3 – Overview of total mobile services market revenue and annual change – 2010 - 2014
Chart 4 – Overview of mobile broadband subscribers by mobile network operator – 2007 - 2013
Chart 5 – Overview of estimated mobile broadband data downloaded in petabytes – 2007 - 2013; 2015
Chart 6 – Global - Internet users – 2009 - 2014
Chart 7 – Global - mobile subscriptions – 2009 - 2014
Chart 8 – Global - Internet users – 2009 - 2014

Exhibit 1 – Key performance indicators of the broadcasting, STV and IPTV markets – mid-2014
Exhibit 2 – Statistical snapshot of e-books
Exhibit 3 – Price fixing allegations
Exhibit 4 – Interesting statistics on the impact of the Internet and the economy
Exhibit 5 – Implications of ending net neutrality
Exhibit 6 – Norway a leader in net neutrality
Exhibit 7 – Netherlands adopts net neutrality legislation
Exhibit 8 – Major global fixed satellite service operators

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